BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A quiet week for polling yields next to no change in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Only one new poll this week, that being the reliable weekly result from Essential Research, and it’s a similarly dull tale from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Things are exactly as they were last week on both two-party preferred and the seat projection, and there are no new figures this week for leadership ratings. The only changes worth observing are a Coalition seat gain in New South Wales that’s cancelled out by a loss in South Australia, and an ongoing descent for Palmer United since a peak three weeks ago. However, it should be noted that Labor’s two-party lead would have been down slightly if not for a methodological adjustment relating to Galaxy’s polls. The last three polls from Galaxy have been conducted according to a new methodology which includes an online panel component in addition to phone polling, but I had hitherto been applying bias adjustments based on the historical record of the old phone-only polling. It appeared that this was causing the Coalition vote to be over-adjusted upwards, so Galaxy’s bias adjustments will henceforth be calculated according to the pollster’s deviation from the results produced by the model – which so far at least is essentially no deviation at all.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,753 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. [ CTar1

    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    I FEEL BETTER NOW.

    Good.

    Is there a tune in that?
    ]

    ——————————————-

    I was going to suggest ‘I Feel Pretty ‘ from West Side Story ( then I remembered it had the “g” word in it – this was before it had a different meaning in 2014 )

  2. zoidlord

    That is all very well, but no one can be in any doubt a about Brandis’ boundless faith in himself, or in the steadfastness of his deep committment to pomposity.

    The gods willing, he will be around for the long haul, that is to say, to the next election.

    Shorten must be praying that Abbott hangs onto Brandis for as long as.

  3. [ Boerwar

    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

    Ah, weel, time for a nanna nap. See youse later.
    ]

    ————————————–

    A tough day at the office eh, Boerwar 😉

  4. What if Cory Bernadi or Chris Kenny were into beastiality and images of them having sex with animals found there way onto the net?

    Should Bernadi or Kenny have a right for them to be removed?

    Hey, maybe Wilson is right 😆

  5. [Surely private photos are just that unless both parties agree to release them.]

    I’m quite happy for the law to criminalize certain use of images but the copyright in an image belongs to the photographer and that should not be changed at all.

  6. [1560
    AussieAchmed

    Julia Gillard’s rely to the Hedley Thomas attack]

    H Thomas…yet another reason to never buy anything published by News Corpse.

  7. The subject of a photograph can have some rights over the image. Contracts can be written that define what an image can be used for and for what period of time. Maybe the time has come for anyone in a relationship to sign a contract about the use of their images.

  8. If you read the profiles of the staff at the Institute of Public Affairs, you learn something interesting. In the past they worked as columnists, authors of libertarian monographs, ministerial staffers, public servants, academics. One has practised law. A few have held other think tank gigs (at the Menzies Research Center, for example). Some are graduate students fresh out of their first degree. There’s nothing wrong with those occupations. But if you espouse the mythology of libertarianism – that jobs are created by the virtuous rich; that wealth ultimately comes from entrepreneurship and innovation, and these “wealth creators” are morally and economically superior to mere salaried mortals, wouldn’t you have a go at living those values yourself? None of these philosopher kings at the IPA have ever deigned to share their wealth creating gifts with humanity. None of them have started a successful business from scratch, met a payroll, created goods and services which make our lives safer or more convenient, devised useful technologies or better ways of doing things.

    Can’t the IPA find a few genuine entrepreneurs and innovators to research and advocate for them? Maybe the people who actually do those things are too busy to take a sinecure. And maybe those people understand from real world experience the interlocking commitments and activities that make their work possible – including well-resourced public goods.

  9. Nicholas

    The IPA, and the like, are ‘places’ to warehouse people the Libs think may be useful as Candidates or Staffers in the future.

    Particularly when they get tossed by the ‘Electorate’. So they keep coming back, just waiting for an excuse to implement old policies. A la the US Republicans.

    The ALP doesn’t have these ‘structures’.

  10. [ CTar1

    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    Nicholas

    The IPA, and the like, are ‘places’ to warehouse people the Libs think may be useful as Candidates or Staffers in the future.

    Particularly when they get tossed by the ‘Electorate’. So they keep coming back, just waiting for an excuse to implement old policies. A la the US Republicans.

    The ALP doesn’t have these ‘structures’.
    ]

    ———————————————

    I think in the ALP they are called “Unions” – Bullock anyone ?????

  11. [Obscenely rich, bored Arabs demonstrate a capacity for madness which defies belief:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTlCNyC9C9w

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkzgYbL58qQ ]

    At the top of the comments thread from the first of the two:

    [saudi arabia must not have very good schools or everyone there is retarded and im not even talking about the dumbass drivers the people standing right on the side of the road you would think alah would have blessed them with brains but since alah isnt real i guess they are just shit out of luck they should just stick to killing innocent women and children with there suicide vests cause that about all they are good at except totally going over board about stupid shit like this post i put here so just to piss some muslim fucktards off fuck alah fuck mohamed and any other bullshit they kill people over]

    Food for thought.

  12. Incidentally, the Northern Passage is open if you want to go for a quick paddle.

    The North-west Passage is not open and the ice has looked fairly sticky thereabouts, so it might not open this season.

  13. The QC ‘s opinion relied on by Hedley Thomas was sued for negligence by Di Fingleton.

    Seems Russell Hanson QC has been a buddy of Thomas ever since.

    [“I don’t now remember whether I did not notice the section of the Magistrates Act on which the appeal succeeded, or whether I saw it and mentally dismissed it as having no bearing on the case. I suspect the latter. Of course, I was aware of the principle of judicial immunity,” Mr Hanson said.]

    Yet he let his client go to jail and blamed her for it.

  14. CTar1@1518

    Is this ‘news’ to the Yanks?

    David Gardner in The Financial Times on why Saudi Arabia is partly almost entirely to blame for Middle East extremism.

    Gardner suggests that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has long endorsed religious absolutism by promoting Wahhabi Islam worldwide. “Saudi Arabia not only exports oil, but tanker-loads of quasi-totalitarian religious dogma and pipelines of jihadi volunteers, even as it struggles to insulate itself from the blowback; and King Abdullah, in his end of Ramadan address, warns against the ‘devilish’ extremism of ‘these deviant forces’. Jihadi extremism does present a threat to the kingdom. But in doctrinal terms it is hard to see in what way it ‘deviates’ from Wahhabi orthodoxy, with its literalist and exclusivist rendering of Sunni Islam.” Gardner contends that this fundamentalism has inadvertently fueled extremist groups like ISIL whom the Saudis condemn as a threat to the Middle East. “The Isis rampage of destruction of shrines and mosques, for instance, continues the two centuries-old record of Wahhabi iconoclasm. Nor should it be forgotten that the House of Saud used Wahhabi zealots as its shock troops in the last century to unite by force most of the religiously diverse Arabian peninsula – won by the sword in 52 battles over 30 years. There are no churches in Saudi Arabia, and permits to build Shia mosques are rarer than desert rain.”


    No link as it’s ‘fire-walled’.

    It needed a small edit.

    The yanks may have an agreement with them re oil and dollars, but I don’t think that should preclude a threat behind closed doors to totally destroy the House of Saud if they do not clean up their act forthwith.

  15. [ Boerwar

    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    Calling Abetz ‘sheepish’ is an outright bigoted insult to sheep, IMHO
    ]

    ————————————–

    Using this forum to make sheep shots at dear Eric ????

  16. badcat@1528

    ALSO :

    The hijackers in the September 11 attacks were 19 men affiliated with al-Qaeda, and 15 of the 19 were citizens of Saudi Arabia.

    The others were from the United Arab Emirates (2), Egypt and Lebanon.

    WOT??? none from Iraq???

    Well I’ll be… 😮

  17. I see Abbott will just ride his bike down the road a few metres for this years pollie pedal, then off to The Netherlands to do something or other.

    I assume we will see photo ops with him in a hair net.

  18. [ bemused

    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    badcat@1528

    ALSO :

    The hijackers in the September 11 attacks were 19 men affiliated with al-Qaeda, and 15 of the 19 were citizens of Saudi Arabia.

    The others were from the United Arab Emirates (2), Egypt and Lebanon.

    WOT??? none from Iraq???

    Well I’ll be…
    ]

    —————————————–

    ….. or even that other place we had to liberate just so we could get the thronging crowds who would like the streets and throw flowers at us …. Afghanistan ????

  19. ….. or even that other place we had to liberate just so we could get the thronging crowds who would LINE the streets and throw flowers at us …. Afghanistan ????

  20. Middle East extremism
    _________________
    Talking about the Saudi fundamentalists regime(with the blessing of the USA of course)…Scott McConell in “The American Conservative” lolks at the awakening in the USA by many to the increasingly fascist-racist nature of Isreal,where he sees the constant move to a fascist mode to local politics under the Likud right-wingers

    This finds expression in people like the Dpt Speaker of the Knesset who wants all of Gaza to be turned in to a vast concentration camp from which all fighters will be remov ed and”exterminated”.(yes his word)..the remainded of those arabs will be deported to..who know where?…and Gaza will then be settled by incoming Jews

    This Nazi like thinking ,McConnel says have now won wide support in Israel,and like the racist mobs of teenagers who harrass and torment Arabs on the streets of Jerusalem ,are all part of the fascist mood
    He sees this is a major problem for the US and the world as Israel is after all a nucleur power ,but in constant conflict with all it’s arab neighbours…and this.. 66 years after the state’s creation

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/what-gaza-has-revealed/

  21. Oh Dear

    Tony can’t take a trick.

    [Crossbench Senator Bob Day has flagged plans for a private senator’s bill to revive a proposal for changes to the Racial Discrimination Act…

    …”Someone has to defend free speech. I think it’s the basis of our society and democracy that people should be free to say what they think and allow others then to determine,” he said.

    “A person should not be taken to court because someone says ‘I was offended by what you said’.”

    The Family First senator says he will introduce the Government’s previous bill as a private senator’s bill.

    He says several Government senators and crossbenchers have voiced support for the plan.]

    Abbott has this simplistic view that he can chose the fronts he has to fight on, I think he will soon realise its bollocks.

  22. ru

    Bolt has really spat is given Day is supporting RDA reform.

    [The two most eloquent defenders of freedom now in Parliament are the conservative Day and the libertarian David Leyonhjelm. Disenchanted Liberals should consider giving them their primary vote in future. ]

  23. [ Abbott has this simplistic view that he can chose the fronts he has to fight on, I think he will soon realise its bollocks. ]

    He has been trying to clear the decks as part of his ‘reset’ attempts – so its good to see him ankle tapped – particularly if its from another loony like Bob Day.

  24. [ruawake

    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    I see Abbott will just ride his bike down the road a few metres for this years pollie pedal, then off to The Netherlands to do something or other.

    I assume we will see photo ops with him in a hair net.
    ]

    ————————————————-

    …. with his finger in a dyke ??? …..

  25. My mother had reported that a “nice little tree” had fallen down. So I went up to look, and it’s an 80 ft white gum sprawled right up the hill from the dam to the top ‘walk’. (My steps don’t measure metres.) All paths now blocked for mowing. Lucky it’s too cold for the grass to grow.

  26. 1589

    That quote omits the word intentionally. David Leyonhjelm was elected on the primary votes of people voting for the LDP wile thinking they were voting for the Liberal Party.

  27. Looks like we might be helping with the RAAF preforming air drops inIraq.

    [Tony Abbott has offered Australia’s assistance to the US for humanitarian air drops over northern Iraq after the US military launched air strikes against Islamic State (Isis) forces.

    The prime minister said he had spoken with US officials about the “potential humanitarian disaster” and that he had been asked to consider participation in humanitarian air drops.]

  28. Diog

    [Mr Abbott says Australia has two military aircraft based in the United Arab Emirates that could assist with the air drops within days.

    “We’re looking to see how quickly we can get crews there,” he said.]

    Why are two planes sitting there without crews?

  29. May 2014:

    ““We’re not in the business of breaking promises. We’re in the business of keeping our promises to fix the budget and fix and strengthen the economy,” the treasurer told the ABC during a walk around Canberra’s Lake Burley Griffin this morning with Senator Cormann.”

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/budget-2014-the-promises-tony-abbott-made-versus-what-he-will-deliver/story-fn84fgcm-1226911399099

    – Debt higher.
    – Senate blockage.
    – Unemployment higher 6.4%.
    – 100,000 Newstart will be cashless in the middle of next year.

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