BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A quiet week for polling yields next to no change in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Only one new poll this week, that being the reliable weekly result from Essential Research, and it’s a similarly dull tale from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Things are exactly as they were last week on both two-party preferred and the seat projection, and there are no new figures this week for leadership ratings. The only changes worth observing are a Coalition seat gain in New South Wales that’s cancelled out by a loss in South Australia, and an ongoing descent for Palmer United since a peak three weeks ago. However, it should be noted that Labor’s two-party lead would have been down slightly if not for a methodological adjustment relating to Galaxy’s polls. The last three polls from Galaxy have been conducted according to a new methodology which includes an online panel component in addition to phone polling, but I had hitherto been applying bias adjustments based on the historical record of the old phone-only polling. It appeared that this was causing the Coalition vote to be over-adjusted upwards, so Galaxy’s bias adjustments will henceforth be calculated according to the pollster’s deviation from the results produced by the model – which so far at least is essentially no deviation at all.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,753 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. keyman:

    Insofar as twitter is any indication, both O and W seem happy as pigs in manure, rooting around the rapidly decaying fabric of the Abbott govt, and the increasing tensions that keep emerging within the coalition and the respective partyrooms.

    Windsor in particular has been especially chirpy. 🙂

  2. zoom

    [still doesn’t make her an Australian!]

    That’s for sure. She mapped an armaments depot and manufacturing site in the Tuggeranong Valley. With a big Railway siding.

    Very American.

  3. Insiders with star stooge Henderson on the panel?

    Poor old and slow Gerard, he really does lack touch with the electorate. If he had any clue he’d be calling for a new mini budget that could get through the Senate.

    Still, keep pushing the budget emergency lie, working a treat so far!

  4. So when Rudd went overseas it was self indulgence but when Abbott goes overseas its not to shore up a few votes?

    Mainstream media are pathetic!

    The bookies should be betting on who the first to R.I.P. should be; the Greens or News Ltd.

    After News released some financial results – it could be close 😎

    By the way, FXJ performed relatively well as a result. The market knows News Ltd is dying.

    That’s the truth of it and good news for Bludgers 😉

  5. Ctar

    I’ve already collected. God bless the Knights. We were lucky but makes up for Melbourne beating St.George after the siren sounded when I had my money on the Dragons.

    They bet $5 for Newcastle, rotten Bulldogs, I’ve only finished a neck in front not the 3 lengths it should’ve been 😀

  6. [ Poor old and slow Gerard, he really does lack touch with the electorate. ]

    A perfect icon of the abbott tories….

    Lets see what he bowls up on the am, but it will all be someone elses fault…and the *others* were worse.

  7. Centre

    I just wrote a dirty comment on your tipping over the last 2 weeks.

    A bloody ‘Server 500’ error flushed it. Bugger!

  8. dave

    Sleep in, it will be a yawn from Henderson.

    Abbott doing great putting Putin in his place, Brandis doesn’t mean to weaken racial laws and we have a budget emergency.

    The stooge will repeat the latter three times…

    S N O O Z E …

  9. dave

    That’s the way I judge it.

    TV recorder on but not watching.

    Loud screams from here will alert me to any bits worth watching.

  10. Ctar, serves you right 😛

    yeah 1 out of 8 two weeks back and 7 out of 8 last week returning to trend.

    So far this week, 2 out of 4 with 1 out of 3 winning bets including a $5 winner.

    My tips and bets are disclosed before the contest and as can be seen, I’ve got my nose in front 😐

  11. Mark Textor

    ”What Australians are now seeing is the Prime Minister doing what he does best and staking his position in the ground. In this case, firmly in the centre,” he said.

    Surely, this is satire

  12. k17

    [staking his position in the ground]

    They’re really full of it.

    “in the ground” in Holland?

    A one way flight for him is good for me.

  13. I am really struggling to see any valid reason to be traveling to Holland. To sign a book is not a valid reason (is there one for MH370?). He must be stopping over somewhere else …. But where?

  14. The bookies’ odds aren’t from their judgement, they’re just from the weight of money. The bookies make their money from the overround no matter who wins.

  15. [ ”What Australians are now seeing is the Prime Minister doing what he does best and staking his position in the ground. In this case, firmly in the centre,” ]

    Fine – lets see them take that to an election.

    Polling shows abbott is in a losing position – so lets benchmark it with that parameter?

    Must be time for textor to show how nasty he is again on social media….

    Another icon of the tories…

  16. Sceptic, as I suspect you are aware, the charge you levelled at a certain person in your previous comment is the subject of a defamation action. So going around repeating it as fact probably isn’t all that smart.

    [Campbell Newman’s LNP Government bounces back with softer approach
    August 10, 2014 12:00AM
    The Sunday Mail (Qld)

    CAMPBELL Newman’s extraordinary apology and new, less-aggressive approach has helped his Government begin clawing back lost support.

    A Reachtel Poll has revealed a small upswing in the LNP’s primary vote, which had nosedived in recent months following frequent public brawls, particularly with the legal fraternity.


    The Reachtel poll has revealed the strategy, dubbed “Operation Boring” by some insiders, has begun working, with the LNP’s primary support inching forward in the past month from 38.7 per cent to 41 per cent.

    The poll of almost 1900 Queensland voters found Labor’s support was unchanged at 34.4 per cent while the Palmer United Party had slipped from 15.4 per cent to 12.6 per cent.

    On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP now leads Labor 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

    The most frequent reason voters gave for not supporting the Newman Government was the “performance of the Premier”, with 29.7 per cent of respondents indicating this was the key reason behind their preference.

    Almost 52 per cent rated Mr Newman’s performance as “poor” or “very poor” – a slight improvement on last month’s 53.1 per cent.

    The Government’s plan to reduce debt and fund infrastructure through selling port and power assets turned off 17.8 per cent of voters.]

  18. [I am really struggling to see any valid reason to be traveling to Holland.]

    Avoiding rigorous questioning even when he does the predictable cut and run and answers nothing is the reason.

  19. [dubbed “Operation Boring” by some insiders]

    It’s got ‘Operation’ in front of it.

    Tones will waste squillions on a Federal copy (no matter how well the Qld State effort works out).

  20. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 9m
    @Bondles 2012 preferences. #ReachTEL

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 12m
    #ReachTEL Poll QLD State Primary Votes: LNP 41.0 (+2.3) ALP 34.4 (0) PUP 12.6 (-2.8) #qldpol #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 14m
    #ReachTEL Poll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: LNP 52 (+1) ALP 48 (-1) #qldpol #auspol]

  21. Hey Centre, someone posted a link to a blog on here recently –

    I immediately thought of you and wondered if it was your beloved LOONS 😀

    You should love this:
    [Welcome to the land of the loons, written by a loon about loons, for those fortunate few who cherish loonacy:

    Hurry up. The loons! The loons! They’re welcoming us back.

    Look! Look! Oh, look, I’ve spotted the loons! Oh! Oh, they’re so lovely.

    I never saw such big loons in my life.

    The loons have been calling for rain all night long. Rain! Rain! Bring us the rain!

    That’s what the loons said, huh.

    It’s a dead loon, Norman. The poor thing. Oh, it smells too.

    – On Golden Pond ]

  22. [Bob Day will introduce a private senator’s bill to revive planned changes to the Racial Discrimination Act.]

    ‘Bob’ Day or Dog Day – so many indies I’m getting ‘confused’.

  23. Why is there such a long winter break for parliament?

    Is it because it is freezing in Canberra at this time of year. Well hopefully all that should change (global warming) one day so the pollies can actually work for their pay.

  24. Abbott seems determined to use foreign affairs to distract from his local failures

    The airlines disaster,identifying bodies,droppiing supplies to people in the mountains of Iraq…anything will do

    Is Australia the only copuntry other tha the Us tro be involved with the food drop issue?

    I suspect the USA must have hundreds of aircraft available in the region,so why would they want Abbott help ?

    of course they Don’t…but it’s all part of his world statesmen act
    I suspect it doesn’t much impress the voters either

  25. Re Brandis and his confusion re internet

    Does anyone know if the story about Brandis being computer illerate and never having used same ,,,is true
    That might explain his hopeless statements on the subject

  26. deb
    A few days ago there was vid on the ABC showing Brandis working at his desk. I saw not one electronic item on it.

  27. I for one think it would be fantastic for our country to be involved with the food drop in Northern Iraq. Would also be pretty happy if we were involved in bombing IS into oblivion. If Abbott succeeds in involving Australia in either of these thoroughly noble endeavours then good on him.

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