BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

A quiet week for polling yields next to no change in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Only one new poll this week, that being the reliable weekly result from Essential Research, and it’s a similarly dull tale from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Things are exactly as they were last week on both two-party preferred and the seat projection, and there are no new figures this week for leadership ratings. The only changes worth observing are a Coalition seat gain in New South Wales that’s cancelled out by a loss in South Australia, and an ongoing descent for Palmer United since a peak three weeks ago. However, it should be noted that Labor’s two-party lead would have been down slightly if not for a methodological adjustment relating to Galaxy’s polls. The last three polls from Galaxy have been conducted according to a new methodology which includes an online panel component in addition to phone polling, but I had hitherto been applying bias adjustments based on the historical record of the old phone-only polling. It appeared that this was causing the Coalition vote to be over-adjusted upwards, so Galaxy’s bias adjustments will henceforth be calculated according to the pollster’s deviation from the results produced by the model – which so far at least is essentially no deviation at all.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,753 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. ML likes to tar everyone here with the one brush. In that way more people will respond. Don’t be drawn in. Classic trollish behaviour.

  2. CTar1

    Large numbers headed over to W.A. when Hamersley iron kicked off in the 1960’s. Mainly for the construction phase but quite a few stayed. Air NZ has had direct flights to Perth for decades so the demand has been there for yonks

    The local mining company association boss noted in the 1980’s that “the mining industry would close overnight if we sent New Zealanders home” . The money was still good but the guy reckoned “the locals” won’t put up with the conditions out in the bush/desert. I particularly remember what he said as it was in the middle of another outbreak of traditional “Kiwi Dole Bludger” moaning. This episode had the added twist that as well as all being dole bludgers they simultaneously ……..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIzivCJ9pzU

  3. “@PaulBongiorno: There’s something missing from my Saturday morning, wit,passion,insight @MikeCarlton01”

    It woud have been good to read Mr Carlton’s take on Senator Abetz, Senator Brandis and Joe Hockey.

  4. guytaur

    [It woud have been good to read Mr Carlton’s take on Senator Abetz, Senator Brandis and Joe Hockey.]

    I’m sure he’ll pop-up from somewhere else very shortly.

  5. [Gary
    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 9:07 am | PERMALINK
    ML likes to tar everyone here with the one brush. In that way more people will respond. Don’t be drawn in. Classic trollish behaviour.]

    Hey Gary!

    Come out of the woodwork just to attack me again I see…..nothing to say about the substantive issue, eh? Just wanted to accuse me of being a troll for questioning why someone has accused me of lacking ethics?

    Do you think I shouldn’t be allowed to even question why?

  6. Morning all. This story about massive oversupply of electricity despite rising retail prices highlights a few things. Some policy success (RET) and failures (retail market). Plus the extent to which inefficient old tech manufacturing here was propped up with subsidised power. If we can’t shut down fifty year old brown coal plants now, you have to wonder about our commitment to competent industry regulation, never mind greenhouse gas action.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-08/australia-faces-unprecedented-oversupply-of-energy-report-says/5658926

  7. Everything

    The phrase you used was “subsidised return journey to Australia”. That does not appear in the Guardian article.

    Your slip is showing.

  8. THE LIBERAL BODY COUNT AT NSW’S ICAC:

    ARTHUR SINODINOS (NSW Senator)
    – Steps down in March as federal assistant treasurer over his dealings with controversial company, Australian Water Holdings.
    BARRY O’FARRELL (Ku-ring-gai)
    – Resigns as NSW premier on April 16 after misleading ICAC over a $3000 bottle of wine.
    – Not accused of corruption.
    CHRIS HARTCHER (Terrigal)
    – Steps down as energy minister in December, amid corruption allegations.
    – Moves to the cross benches in February.
    CHRIS SPENCE (The Entrance)
    – Moves to the cross benches in February amid corruption allegations.
    – Announces in June that he will not contest 2015 state election.
    DARREN WEBBER (Wyong)
    – Moves to the cross benches in February amid corruption allegations.
    – Announces in June that he will not contest 2015 state election.
    MARIE FICARRA (upper house MP)
    – Allegedly solicited banned donation.
    – Moves to the cross benches in April.
    MIKE GALLACHER (upper house MP)
    – Allegedly hatched a “corrupt scheme”.
    – Steps down as police minister on May 2.
    – Joins cross bench.
    TIM OWEN (Newcastle)
    – Announces on May 12 that he will not contest the 2015 state election because of recurring health issues and ICAC allegations.
    – Concedes banned donors “probably” contributed to his 2011 political campaign.
    – Moves to the cross benches on August 6 on the first day of new round of ICAC hearings.
    ANDREW CORNWELL (Charlestown)
    – Moves to the cross benches on August 6 after allegations he was offered $10,000 in a brown paper bag by Newcastle mayor Jeff McCloy in his Bentley before the 2011 state election.
    – Also stood down as government whip.
    – Announces on August 8 that he will not contest 2015 state election.

  9. [“@PaulBongiorno: There’s something missing from my Saturday morning, wit,passion,insight @MikeCarlton01”]

    Bonge is right about that!

  10. Oh I see…..now I understand how you would consider me “unethical” then!!!

    This place is always good for a laugh at least.

    🙂

    So tell me, did you accuse kezza2 of being unethical? I was quoting her as you will have noted!

  11. Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) boss David Irvine described metadata as the “what, where, when and how” of telecommunications that discloses basic details such as IP addresses, billing addresses and the time and duration of communications.

    “We have been accessing that data for many years, legally,” he said.

    IF it’s been done legally for years, then the only reason for Abbott’s “big” announcement was for publicity and to satisfy his immature “tough boy” ego

  12. 1343
    Steve777
    [Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 8:45 am | PERMALINK
    Re Confessions @1339: maybe Hedley Thomas should investigate how Tony Abbott apparently accepted a gift of $60,000 from an institution that stands to greatly benefit from a change in government policy, and not 20 years ago.]

    Precisely why Hedley wrote the stupid piece. Always trying to divert negative attention elsewhere.

  13. [Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 1m
    Abuse of Carlton has moved from calling him “anti-Semitic” to the generic “racist”. Might lawyers appear soon?]

  14. From

    [guytaur

    ET

    Making stuff up]

    To

    [guytaur
    ET

    WB said all that was needed last night. Just in case you missed it.]

    !!!!

    “Making stuff up” one second, then “we have already covered that” the next…..all proving that I am unethical apparently in the PB alternate universe.

    Do you guys ever get out into the real world at all, or is it just the PB reality? It might be a good idea to get out every now and then just to re-calibrate your consistency meters!

    ….speaking of which, echo chamber can be restarted, I am off to enjoy the day!

    Be nice to each other Bludgeroonifyers, store it up for my next visit :devil:

  15. Achmed

    I wonder how long the list would be for Campbell Newman’s government if he had not nobbled the CJC? Have a good day all.

  16. [lizzie
    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 9:32 am | PERMALINK
    Sorry folks,]

    Is that an apology to me, or kezza2, or both, or neither?

  17. Mod Lib:

    Lizzie lost her man recently and so probably isn’t feeling tolerant of some mindless internet troll baiting her and giving her shit.

    You feel like getting in someone’s face this morning cause you’re bored, get in mine instead, and leave lizzie alone.

  18. The ICAC has got to be greatest own goal ever.

    Set up to destroy the Labor Party it has snared Liberals and shown the lies and hypocrisy as they ranted about corrupt Labor when their own are just as bad if not worse than Labor or the Unions.

    The RC into Unions will end up having the same results as corrupt corporate CEO’s and Liberals get exposed.

  19. Everything

    You didn’t question whether the Gillard family came here as 10 pound Poms (and that wasn’t the issue with Abbott’s family, either).

    Your statement was about a ‘return journey’ (I would argue on behalf of the Abbotts on this one, but that’s not the point).

    There is a case to argue (which, I repeat, I don’t agree with) that the Abbotts made a ‘return journey’ to Australia.

    There is no case to argue that the Gillards did.

    Therefore your post, where you accused the Gillards of a ‘return journey’, is wrong, as lizzie pointed out.

    (lizzie is not to blame for either your careless use of cut and pasting or your own ability to read and comprehend your actual post).

  20. Lizzie

    A quickie for me before taking the grandsons out.

    The 10 pound pom point is absolute bullshit.

    Rabbott has so many failings as a politician that deserve scrutiny, this whole ‘arrival’ in Australia discussion is just farcical.

  21. confessions:

    I did not know that and am genuinely sorry to hear that news. However, I did not direct any post at lizzie until she insinuated that I was unethical…..and then all I did was ask why.

    It is ludicrous to suggest that I am unethical because I quoted kezza2 when she was trying to make some ham fisted political point just because the Abbott family came her as 10-pound Poms and replied that Gillard’s family had done the same.

  22. Everything

    Rinse and repeat:

    kezza was making a point (which, again, I don’t agree with) that the Abbotts could be described as making a ‘return journey’ to Australia – they started off here and then came back.

    By cutting and posting kezza’s statement and applying it to the Gillard family, you made a statement about the Gillards which is simply untrue.

    If you can’t understand why that’s unethical, I’m afraid no one here can help you.

  23. Operation Milk the Last Drop out of a Disaster

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott will travel to the Netherlands to meet his Dutch counterpart, Mark Rutte, as the victims of Malaysia Airlines flight 17 continue to be identified.

    The Dutch government has issued a brief statement announcing Mr Abbott will visit The Hague on Monday to meet the prime minister and sign a condolence book.

    “Over the past few weeks, the Netherlands and Australia have been working together closely to repatriate and identify all the victims as soon as possible,” the statement said.

    “Following the meeting (with Mr Rutte), Prime Minister Abbott will sign the book of condolence for the Dutch victims of the disaster.”]

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-world/-3dez3.html

  24. [Socrates
    Posted Saturday, August 9, 2014 at 9:15 am | PERMALINK
    Morning all. This story about massive oversupply of electricity despite rising retail prices highlights a few things. Some policy success (RET) and failures (retail market). Plus the extent to which inefficient old tech manufacturing here was propped up with subsidised power. If we can’t shut down fifty year old brown coal plants now, you have to wonder about our commitment to competent industry regulation, never mind greenhouse gas action.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-08/australia-faces-unprecedented-oversupply-of-energy-report-says/5658926 ]

    Unfortunately Abbott’s hand picked hatchet man to recommend destruction of the renewable energy target, Warburton, is using the oversupply issue to do just that.

    [Review chief Warburton flags reduction of renewable energy target

    Evidence that Australia will have an oversupply of electricity for at least a decade has fuelled expectations that the government will be advised to wind back the national renewable energy target…

    Dick Warburton, Tony Abbott’s hand-picked head of a review of the renewable energy target, said the forecasts had formed ”a very large part” of his report to the government, which he expected to submit in the next fortnight…

    Mr Warburton, a businessman and climate sceptic, said research commissioned by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and other business groups suggesting the target would cost the economy $29 billion and 5000 jobs by 2020 had also been factored into its conclusions.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/review-chief-warburton-flags-reduction-of-renewable-energy-target-20140808-3de1o.html#ixzz39qeZwZ1S

  25. So after a spate of posts where ModLib accused all and sundry of hypocrisy, we’ve now got silence.

    ModLib, you could at least honestly face the fact that you were incorrect, admit you were wrong and apologise.

    Anything else would be — hypocritical.

  26. Wow. Mark Latham goes the bucket tip on Murdoch Organ Government Gazette

    Asking for vendettaJournalism..

    [But I’m not blaming Hedley, the Oz’s smearer-in-chief. It’s the people around him who have dropped their standards. He’s been made to work with amateurs: fools who don’t understand the finer points of smear.

    First, The Australian hooked him up with Michael Smith, the prolific anti-Gillard blogger. That went OK until Smith declared the Prophet Mohammed to be “a paedophile”, a statement so extreme, even Sydney Radio 2GB axed him as an announcer.

    In 2011, when Smith lost his job at 2UE for trying to defame Gillard, he launched a savage vendetta against her. Mohammed is lucky he died 1400 years ago, otherwise Smith and Thomas would be rummaging through his family archives, looking for evidence of how Osama Bin Laden funded his home renovations.

    Now Hedley is forced to work with Markson and Kenny, News Corp’s answer to Burke and Wills – two lost souls trying to break into the higher echelons of the Murdoch machine. Markson does it by impersonating Hansard whenever Chris Mitchell walks into the room. For Kenny, it’s more of a family affair: recruiting his son Liam to publicise his impeccable right-wing credentials.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/arts_saleroom/revealed_my_love_affair_with_kevin_cci4o0fTw5fBosUqRRdzpL

  27. One wonders with the Hedley Thomas/Gillard stuff whether Gillard is just waiting for the RC to be over to slap around a few defamation writs.

    You can get away with a lot as ‘political comment’ – but I doubt that that applies once the subject is well and truly out of Parliament.

  28. Murdoch’s Oz today (highlights from the front page online):

    [AUSTRALIA needs to prepare for an increasingly savage, 100-year war against radical Islam, former army head Peter Leahy says.

    THE chair of the APC has been challenged to disqualify himself from adjudicating an editorial complaint against The Australian.

    JULIA Gillard’s involvement must go to a jury, a QC says.

    Latham threatened smear campaign
    THE former Labor leader was out to kill details of his links with Gillard.

    SUPREME Court documents reveal a conversation in which Clive Palmer allegedly tried to “corrupt” Queensland’s deputy premier.]

  29. markjs:

    He certainly does have a way with words, and I just love the sarcasm:

    [The problem began with the headline: “Mark Latham’s Secret Role As Julia Gillard Backer”. Given that over the past two years I’ve written columns and now a book (The Political Bubble) condemning News Corp for its smear campaign against Gillard, it doesn’t seem much of a secret. The article, written by Sharri Markson, Chris Kenny and Hedley Thomas, was simply a rehash of “news” first reported by the ABC’s Latika Bourke in December last year: that from late 2012 onwards, Gillard’s communications director John McTernan communicated with me.

    For a newspaper that constantly attacks the ABC as vacuous and derivative, this was the ultimate humiliation for The Australian. It reheated Bourke’s story like a moulding slice of meatloaf.]

    😆

  30. zoomster

    I think it will take lawsuits to stop. This is the mob who get their corporate ruls of conduct and ethics from Mr “Hackgate” Murdoch

  31. Usual self selection caveats apply. Sharing because its Gladstone.

    LOL guytaur. 96% no in Gladstone. They are more “independent” than LNP, but still interesting.

  32. nappin

    Yeah it reads more like a Presidential result for Zimbabwe than you would expect as a result from a reader poll in Gladstone

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