BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Post-MH17 polls have boosted Tony Abbott’s personal ratings and slightly improved the Coalition’s position on voting intention, although Labor remains comfortably ahead.

This week’s better-late-than-never BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading finds the MH17 effect boosting the Coalition by 1.1% on two-party preferred, and putting it two points clear of Labor on the primary vote. On the seat projection, the Coalition this week gains two in Queensland and one in every other mainland state, a net gain of six that nonetheless leaves Labor with an overall majority of 79 seats out of 150. The bigger effect is on the personal ratings, for which Newspoll contributes to a lift of nearly six points on the reading for Tony Abbott’s net approval, albeit from a dismally low base. Newspoll also causes the previously downward trend for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to level off this week, although his lead as preferred prime minister continues to narrow.

Also on the better-late-than-never front, this week’s Essential Research, which I neglected to cover on Tuesday, had the Coalition gaining a point for the second week in a row to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two on a week ago), 38% for Labor (down one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Other questions found a very healthy 67% approving of Tony Abbott’s handling of the Malaysia Airlines disaster with only 13% disapproving; Malaysia Airlines, the Malaysian government and the United Nations also credited with handling the matter well, but the Russian government not so much; 49% believing Vladimir Putin should not be allowed to attend the G20 versus 29% for should be allowed; and 62% supporting trade sanctions against Russia, 46% supporting the withdrawal of diplomatic relations and 28% supporting support for the Ukrainian government against the rebels, with only 8% preferring that no action be taken.

The poll also finds 59% of respondents not expecting their electricity bill to decrease as a result of the carbon tax repeal, which includes 16% who actually expect it to go up, versus only 33% who expect it to fall. A question on actions on climate change policy has only 5% nominating the government’s direct action policy of the available options and only 19% going for an emissions trading scheme, with 43% insteading opting for “incentives for renewable energy”. Another question finds 51% favouring an increase in the childcare rebate over the government’s paid parental leave scheme, which is preferred by only 25%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,164 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  4. The Northern Route is not far off being available for shipping without ice breakers. But the North West Passage is looking fairly solid and does not seem to be shifting much over the past few weeks:

  5. To clear it up.

    [The Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre is Australia’s only public hospital solely dedicated to cancer treatment, research and education.]

  6. [Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, July 31, 2014 at 6:43 pm | PERMALINK
    At last!

    We are going to have a ‘National Day of Mourning’.]

    On the Thursday before the next expected Newspoll.

  9. “@paulmcgeough: ZHDANOVKA, 11am local: All roads to MH17 crash site blocked by fighting…”

    “@paulmcgeough: ZHDANOVKA, 11.40am local: On high ground, stunning view of whole MH17 crash site …being torn apart by at least 5 different battles…”

  11. [BREAKING NEWS Ukraine’s parliament approves Dutch and Australian control of crash site, allows arms to be used.]

    So, er what.

  15. Abbott has stated all the spooks have told him unarmed is the least risk. The Ukraine authorisation of weapons means SFA.

  16. Meanwhile:

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 2m

    July comes to an end. Anyone at all concerned about the 1,200 Australians why died of smoking related illnesses in the month?

  17. ruawake

    That was before the vote. Lets see what Abbott says now. I agree he should say the same and it should mean SFA.

    However this is Abbott and team we are talking about.

  19. Lizzie

    How are you going?

    I too heard Abetz ……. he certainly did say what you said. He also said that the fewer jobs there are, the harder the unemployed should work to get one.

    If they work really hard at job getting, then all the unemployed will get one, implied this shonk of a man, even though on the maths of it it’s impossible.

  20. [The Federal Government unveiled a $1.5 billion jobs placement scheme earlier this week and an expansion of the Work for the Dole Scheme.

    The draft changes would force the unemployed to apply for 40 jobs a month to qualify for welfare benefits.

    Colin Barnett said while people receiving unemployed benefits should feel pressure to seek jobs, the Commonwealth’s demands seemed impractical.

    “I think you’ll find people will develop little businesses doing applications for others,” he said.

    “I think quantitative requirements like that, where you just put a number on it, probably don’t work that well.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-31/wa-premier-rejects-abbotts-plan-for-jobseekers/5638112

    As some of us were remarking yesterday, expect people to just scroll through seek.com and apply for anything just to make their necessary quota.

  21. [BREAKING NEWS Ukraine’s parliament approves Dutch and Australian control of crash site, allows arms to be used.]
    Now what will Abbott do ?

  23. He’s luvin it.

    [http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-under-fire-over-gun-photo-censorship/story-e6frfkvr-1225937989917]

  24. Did I read in some small print somewhere that unemployment went up? Where are the headlines?

    And did I also read that Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest was hired to do a review of welfare? ummmm what qualifications does he have to do this?

    This government lives in la la land…I honestly don’t know what planet they are on, but it seems very remote from the world of everyday Australians….

  25. BHP have been ordered to pay more than $2 million to an asbestos victim.

    But they don’t give in easily even after all these years when it is known that asbestos exposure can be fatal.

    One of the lawyers who brought the action, Joanna Wade, said the verdict was a significant victory for Mr Dunning and his family but “it does not take away from the fact that he is dealing with an incurable, terminal disease as a result of BHP’s negligence”.
    “BHP has fought this case for almost four years, arguing every available legal point,” Ms Wade said in a written statement released by law firm Slater and Gordon.

    Just like CSR they did all those years ago In WA when the woman of steel julie bishop was acting for Them

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bhp-ordered-to-pay-record-22m-to-terminally-ill-asbestos-victim-20140731-zz0rn.html#ixzz392HnxM5b

  26. liyana:

    This is what I’ve seen of Forrest and welfare today. Haven’t seen it reported that he’s doing a review of welfare as such.

    [Mining magnate Andrew Forrest on Friday will propose a welfare card for a host of government payments, which would introduce income management to 2.5 million people.

    Mr Forrest believes technology exists that would make it possible to ban the purchase of certain products, including alcohol and gambling, with quarantined welfare payments added to bank-controlled cards.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24594129/govt-rules-out-welfare-card-for-all/

  27. This whole 40 job applications a week thing is intended as a penance for the sin of being unemployed. If an unemployed person works harder or smarter at job seeking they might move up the queue ahead of other unemployed. But it’s like getting to the head if the lifeboat queue on the Titanic.

    The jobs aren’t there. This is the problem the Government should be addressing, rather than trying to deter people from seeking relief from the results if its incompetence.

  28. That Abetz interview was a train wreck.

    Not only did he admit that the 40 figure was entirely arbitrary, whilst hinting that perhaps the 20 figure was based on something (but he didn’t actually know, which you’d think would be fairly basic), not only was he running away from the 40 figure as fast as he possibly could, but he made it abundantly clear he has no idea of how the job market works.

    The very last question he was asked was what he regarded as a genuine job application – he said wtte that it might be found that ‘the internet’ was a suitable approach, as if that was a revolutionary idea.

    Well, Minister for Employment, I’ll think you’ll find that you can ONLY apply for public service jobs – most of the ones in your own Department, for example – via the internet. No other form of application is considered suitable.

    If Dunderhead ends up (he won’t) deciding that the internet isn’t a suitable form of job application, then finding 40 jobs a month to apply for really will become impossible – and totally so for anyone in any vaguely ‘professional’ line of work.

  30. Interesting development.

    [Ukraine MH17: Russian aviation experts to visit site
    31 July 2014 Last updated at 09:22gmt

    Russian aviation experts have arrived in the Ukrainian capital Kiev ahead of a visit to the site of the Flight MH17 crash in rebel-held territory.

    Ukraine’s government has called a one-day pause in military operations against pro-Russia rebels to allow investigators to reach the site.

    The Russian team plans to visit the site with international colleagues and study debris there together]
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28581722

  32. psyclaw

    Thank you. I’m going well. I’m very busy sorting files and paper and rocks, and have just begun to make arrangements for a memorial service (Ken’s family are helping). A little nervous-making!

  34. Zoomster

    I predicted yesterday that the Tories would soon be backing away from the 40 jobs a week target

    Their problem is that they have dunces like Abetz involved. He wasn’t smart enough in the first place to see the target was ridiculous and every time from now on he opened his mouth the hole just gets deeper.

  35. [The very last question he was asked was what he regarded as a genuine job application – he said wtte that it might be found that ‘the internet’ was a suitable approach, as if that was a revolutionary idea.

    Well, Minister for Employment, I’ll think you’ll find that you can ONLY apply for public service jobs – most of the ones in your own Department, for example – via the internet.]

    Same with some WA public service agencies, as a friend of mine found to her annoyance recently. She has poor internet service at her home so tends to do most of her internet searching on her phone or at work. But couldn’t apply for a job at work, and her phone was impractical for attaching Word documents off her computer.

    This 40 jobs thing is looking like another policy brain fart: no logical conceptual framework, no consultation with the wider community, no detailed policy work. And to cap it all off, send out Abetz of all people to try to convince us it’s for the greater good!

  36. [A Welfare Card is just another term for Income Management:]

    Of course it is. As the article I linked to makes explicitly clear.

  37. “@StephenMcDonell: #MH17 scouting team made it through to crash site but apparently now trapped in Debaltseve to north of site. Seems like ceasefire not true.”

  38. Bugler

    [In answer to your query in the previous thread… yes, I believe the Peter MacCallum Centre is public.]

    I had a feeling it was. I can’t understand why the Auditor-General wasn’t all over then like a rash with this Jackson stuff. It stinks to high heaven.

  39. All over the local paper today were reports of Homeswest (WA’s public housing authority) lifting its rents by $40pw. $80pfn is quite a whack to a low income earner, or say someone fully reliant on the pension.

    I don’t know how often Homeswest does rent reviews, but I know from people who rent in the private market it’s done annually when your lease is up for renewal. $40pw in one hit seems very steep to me.

    It feels like we’re getting hit from all sides. The feds are withdrawing funding, causing services here to lose staff or shut down altogether. And the state govt is also cutting spending, which will likely result in further contraction of services, plus they’re increasing fees and charges which just makes it harder esp for those already struggling.

    My casual recollection is that we don’t often have fed and state govts contracting spending – usually it’s one or the other. Something has to give somewhere if this continues.

  40. One of the points Steve Price made about his opposition to the 40 applications was that the Small Business Association had complained to him that they would be inundated with job requests from people who were having to meet the huge number which would be a huge waste of everyone’s time.

    He also said Abbott had said he wanted people out looking for jobs rather than on computers, but this policy would leave them stuck in front of a computer for hours filling out applications so they don’t have any time to actually go out and look for a suitable job.

  41. Confessions

    The idea that a minister for employment would not know that the only way you can apply for a job in his department is on line shows just how far out of touch the Tories are.

    I know Abetz is from tassie but surely …

  42. [but this policy would leave them stuck in front of a computer for hours filling out applications so they don’t have any time to actually go out and look for a suitable job.]

    Isn’t most job seeking actually done on the computer? Even low skilled work? Plenty of hospitality and retail jobs on seek.com.

  43. The Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre is Australia’s only public hospital solely dedicated to cancer treatment, research and education.</I.

    So it won't be long before Abbott removes any government funding to add to the billions$ to that medical research company that sponsors his bike rides

  44. [He also said Abbott had said he wanted people out looking for jobs rather than on computers]

    He really does live in the Stone Age, reminds me of Of Mice and Men.

  45. Shallow Mal’s comments today were quite interesting, hinting (no more) that he may not perfectly hew to Rupe’s line.
    I’ve been wondering for a while if the Shallow one would realise that he’s the patsy in this government (trashing his reputation and getting nothing in return but the contempt of the Govt and electorate). Further, it would be very hard for Abbott to shift him out of communications.
    So the big question is whether he will grow a spine (and a pair) and start worrying about his legacy.
    I await developments, though without great hope.

  46. Isn’t most job seeking actually done on the computer? Even low skilled work? Plenty of hospitality and retail jobs on seek.com.

    check the advert date. They seem to stay on the site for weeks after the closing date…

  47. rossmcg:

    One of the ironies about the current govt adopting simplistic, narrow approaches to deal with complex social problems is a report I stumbled across today from the APS Public Service Commission (or whatever it’s called). It was titled (wtte) ‘dealing with wicked problems’ and the essence of the report counselled the exact opposite of what the govt is proposing for long term unemployed.

    Public servants must be tearing their hair out with this govt.

  49. “The measure comes just six months after fresh controls were imposed to make EU immigrants wait three months to get jobseeker’s allowance after entering the country and then limiting claims to six months. The rule changes were subsequently extended to child tax credit and child benefit.”

    “The Conservatives will seek to portray the fresh measure as being tough on immigration in an effort to placate the right of the party and win back voters from Ukip.”

    Sounds familiar?

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