BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Post-MH17 polls have boosted Tony Abbott’s personal ratings and slightly improved the Coalition’s position on voting intention, although Labor remains comfortably ahead.

This week’s better-late-than-never BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading finds the MH17 effect boosting the Coalition by 1.1% on two-party preferred, and putting it two points clear of Labor on the primary vote. On the seat projection, the Coalition this week gains two in Queensland and one in every other mainland state, a net gain of six that nonetheless leaves Labor with an overall majority of 79 seats out of 150. The bigger effect is on the personal ratings, for which Newspoll contributes to a lift of nearly six points on the reading for Tony Abbott’s net approval, albeit from a dismally low base. Newspoll also causes the previously downward trend for Bill Shorten’s net approval rating to level off this week, although his lead as preferred prime minister continues to narrow.

Also on the better-late-than-never front, this week’s Essential Research, which I neglected to cover on Tuesday, had the Coalition gaining a point for the second week in a row to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (up two on a week ago), 38% for Labor (down one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Other questions found a very healthy 67% approving of Tony Abbott’s handling of the Malaysia Airlines disaster with only 13% disapproving; Malaysia Airlines, the Malaysian government and the United Nations also credited with handling the matter well, but the Russian government not so much; 49% believing Vladimir Putin should not be allowed to attend the G20 versus 29% for should be allowed; and 62% supporting trade sanctions against Russia, 46% supporting the withdrawal of diplomatic relations and 28% supporting support for the Ukrainian government against the rebels, with only 8% preferring that no action be taken.

The poll also finds 59% of respondents not expecting their electricity bill to decrease as a result of the carbon tax repeal, which includes 16% who actually expect it to go up, versus only 33% who expect it to fall. A question on actions on climate change policy has only 5% nominating the government’s direct action policy of the available options and only 19% going for an emissions trading scheme, with 43% insteading opting for “incentives for renewable energy”. Another question finds 51% favouring an increase in the childcare rebate over the government’s paid parental leave scheme, which is preferred by only 25%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,164 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 24
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  1. Sounds like the truth escaped from detention today:
    On ABC

    The national inquiry into children in immigration detention has heard evidence alleging a Government cover-up about the scale of mental health issues among child asylum seekers.

    Psychiatrist Dr Peter Young was the director of mental health services at detention centre service provider, International Health and Mental Services (IHMS), for three years until earlier this month.

    In evidence to the inquiry today, Dr Young alleged figures showing the extent of mental health issues among child asylum seekers had been covered up by the Immigration Department.

  2. ruawake

    So the corporations who have advised against his PPL are all “crass political” operatives?

    You’re right. Belly laugh required. He’s completely out of touch.

  3. [I enjoy your regular updates on what is happening in the ALP in Qld]

    We have it easy, no fossils in upper houses to prise out of the fat seats.

  4. Steve777 – dead right. And in a democracy laws like this must be justified by actual evidence, not scary but unverifiable stories told by the director of ASIO.

    As always, policing/security on the whole requires proper resources, not insane laws.

    We have a regime of secret detention without trial which cannot be scrutinised because anyone who talks about it is commiting a major criminal offence.

    Meanwhile we have a government wanting to give security agencies the power to hack private computers without a warrant:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-16/george-brandis-unveils-expanded-spy-agency-powers/5602072

    And to track and retain data about our browsing habits.

    I think the biggest cause for concern is the almost total lack of concern about our participation in PRISM/Five Eyes activities. Reading the Australian media, you’d think we had nothing to do with it, not that our own government was actively spying on us via a proxy (the US, who does the spying then shares the information back to our people).

  5. Comrades, comrades.

    I see that Bolt’s well-argued accusation of anti-semitism has hit some sensitivities.

    When, BTW, was the last time posters on Bludger seriously got stuck into the Taliban, ISIS, Heshbollah, Al Qaeda, Al Fatah and HAMAS? After all, collectively, they are arguably the beautiful people of the ME.

  7. Boerwar

    Don’t like religious fanatics, but can understand psychology of groups like HAMAS even if their actions are likely to be unproductive. I’d build a rocket if someone attacked my family.

    There doesn’t seem to be any moral daylight between HAMAS and the likes of Netanyahu.

  8. Boerwar

    Al Qaeda are soooo last year. You cannot criticize Hamas as they were nurtured by Israel and therefore must be perfect. Nor can you criticize ISIS because our allies and the Saudis were instrumental in its creation. What is the problem with Al Fatah ?

  9. @Bemused/64

    I happen to note that Communist Party Dissolution Bill was circa mid 1900’s.

    I think you are like Psephos sometimes, stuck in the past.

  10. Yep, the old nugget gets thrown around again.

    Criticize Israel’s attacks on Gaza makes one anti-semite or a terrorist sympathizer.

  11. [There doesn’t seem to be any moral daylight between HAMAS and the likes of Netanyahu.]
    If there is, it’s on the other side of ‘good’.

  12. zoidlord@109

    @Bemused/64

    I happen to note that Communist Party Dissolution Bill was circa mid 1900′s.

    I think you are like Psephos sometimes, stuck in the past.

    Pull your head in you twerp.

    It was a very notable event in Australia’s political history and stands above all other examples.

  14. Poroti

    The madness was not exhibited by the Court, but by the plaintiff family.

    Remember, they were suing for $300mill, and knocked back $8+mill.

    Courts don’t very much like their time being taken up by “ridiculosity”.

    This guy had no right to bleed the school for millions, having refused a very reasonable offer.

    The pity is that the school probly won’t see much of the dosh.

  15. The way Abbott is going we will soon have a Bill of Rights to be voted in a referendum. Despite the US 2nd Amendment problem

  16. Dee@110

    Yep, the old nugget gets thrown around again.

    Criticize Israel’s attacks on Gaza makes one anti-semite or a terrorist sympathizer.

    Strange argument really. The Palestinians are far more Semitic in their DNA that the Israelis.

  18. A bit concerned with the AG being made judge, jury and execution against persons of interest.

    To add to the already concerning view of mandatory data retention for ISPs. I have nothing to hide, but why should I pay? While I object to information collected about my Internet habits, I’m guessing that the data collected about me will most likely not be viewed by anybody at all. Waste of money.

  19. psyclaw

    Rather than the courts the “madness” for me was that the school ended up having to spend $10 million of legal fees.

  20. Tone knows that if the PPL goes, he will stand before us naked in a dunce’s cap. He will have broken most of his promises and his party will have forced him to break the rest. Hollow does not even begin to describe it.

  22. Criticising Israel for its actions in Gaza is no more anti Semitic than criticising Russia for their actions in East Ukraine or earlier in Crimea is anti-Russian racism. Israel’s actions are deplorable and people are saying so. Also, given that Israel is a friend and a sort of ‘second order ally’ (the ally of our ally), silence could be taken as compliance.

    Pretty much everyone in Australia agrees that ISIS and Al Qaeda are criminal, terrorist organisations guilty of the most deplorable crimes. Our elected governments present and past have said so in international organisations and in this for the most part speak on our behalf. On the other hand, sometimes it seems according to our government that Israel (or, in other times any anti-communist regime) can do no wrong.

  23. poroti – Not arguing with you, but three points:
    1. In our anglo legal system the Govt basically farms out litigation to private parties (who front up to the judge when they’re all ready). That means the Govt doesn’t have to invest as many taxpayer’s dollars in judges as in Europe (where they play a much more active and investigative role).
    2. As I mentioned above, the courts are particularly anxious not to bar non-corporate plaintiffs on the grounds of impecuniousness in case they stifle worthwhile actions. This case points up the danger of that approach.
    3. Actually, the insurance company will probably wear this loss (although I imagine the school’s premiums will be affected).

  27. I think that the rejection of the Communist Party Dissolution Bill was a landmark in Australian political history. It says a lot about the confidence of the Australian people and the strength of Australian democracy at that time. But at a time when the Cold War clouds gathered, we were fighting an attempted communist takeover in Korea, and many were greatly concerned about the role of communists in trade unions, Australians decided that banning the Communist Party was a step too far.

    Maybe it is ancient history, being around the time that I was born after all. I wonder if today’s electorate would, as a whole, be as wise or confident.

  28. Which is why a lot of cases start out as a fight for damages and end up as a fight over costs. You’ve got no idea how many cases should never have been started and end up in a quagmire where the biggest thing at stake is the costs verdict.

  29. ISIS, Hamas, AQ etc are obviously vile and should be strenuously opposed. But they aren’t democratic institutions and aren’t our allies so our direct influence is somewhat limited.

    It’s not good enough for democratic countries to aspire to be just a bit better than the psychopaths. Like it or not they are held to higher standards, and we have greater standing to complain about their behaviour.

  31. I imagine that, in order to escape being labelled either anti-semitic or being paralysed with fear of being labelled anti-semitic, we should construct objective outrage tables something along the lines of:

    ISIS: five star outrage when it gets around to mass clitorectomy; four and half star outrage when it indulges in massacres greater than 500 (an additional half star outrage if ISIS dismembers the bodies for social media purposes; three star outrage when it does mass sectarian cleansing of christians and shia.

    Israel: five star outrage when it kills a school room full of children (deduct half an outrage star if SOME schoolrooms are sometimes used for storing rockets) Add the half star back if the UN has phoned 17 times to tell the Israeli military that schoolroom has children in it but no missiles; three and a half star outrage when Israel blames Hamas for killing three teenagers, arrests over 500 people as being possible suspects for the triple murder; two star outrage for bashing up youth during same.

    And so on and so forth, ad infinitum, ad nauseam. These tables would be updated and spun like Tibetan prayer wheels as appropriate.

    In the ‘outrage space’, as the spivs on Sky Business Channel would put it, we then have to address the issue of moral relativity. Outrage definitely has to take into account moral relativity.

    How should being first mover in any particular outrage event affect the outrage table ratings, for example?

  32. Martin B

    Isn’t Hamas technically a democratic institution as in didn’t it run in “democratic” elections in Palestine?

    Patrick B

    The problem with your lawyer analogy is that there isn’t a doctor representing disease and death trying to make you worse. Unless Dr Nitschke is around.

  33. zoidlord

    Love it.

    [Dawe. I think the Australian public are in the same boat

    Clark. Yeah well they don’t come up on our news feed Brian.

    Dawe. Why not ?

    Clark. We think Joe might have unfriended them. We’re trying to get them back right now.

    Dawe. Oh so you are poking them ?

    Clark. Well that’s not the verb he used……]

  34. BW

    In fairness to Bolt, he was referring to the row of decapitated heads on the fence that the nutters from ISIS were having fun with.

  35. Perhaps Nitsche is an ‘e’ short of the full philosophe.

    BTW, ‘…sche’ is the germanified form of ‘…ski’ which indicates that Nitsche’s forebears may have hied from that bit of Poland partitioned to Germany.

  36. [Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, July 31, 2014 at 5:58 pm | Permalink

    BW

    In fairness to Bolt, he was referring to the row of decapitated heads on the fence that the nutters from ISIS were having fun with.]

    When I read the article a question occurred to me again and again: ‘Was Bolt in any way aware of the irony of his position, given his general approach to expressing (lots of) very selective Boltian outrage at this that and the other thing?’

  40. [One thing we can be justly proud of is that somewhere in our collective soul, whether by design or accident or habit, we have developed and cultivated this odd sense of the fair go, of a rough sort of equality and social justice, where the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favour to those with knowledge, but where tax and redistribution happen to them all.

    The Abbott Government, and its supporters in business and the media, hold that Australia, egalitarian Australia, in contempt, and they see this term of government as their chance to feed it to the sharks.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-31/dunlop-feeding-our-egalitarian-nation-to-the-sharks/5638304

  41. [Senator Abetz has told the ABC’s PM program that there has been some “pushback” to the Government’s plan.

    “It would be fair to say … that there’s been some pushback in relation to the requirement of asking people to apply for 40 jobs per month,” he said.]

    Apparently he thought 20 applications per month was accepted by everyone, “so one assumes one might be able to increase that without too much extra community concern.” Like by doubling it without thinking it through.

  42. [ERIC ABETZ: When jobs are sparse, it means that you’ve got to apply for more jobs to get a job.]

    Bull Sh+t he didn’t say that surely, they can’t be that stupid.

  44. Retweeted by Greens
    Christine Milne ‏@senatormilne 9m

    Unacceptable! http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/push-to-water-down-laws-on-directors-liabilities-20140730-3cuic.html …

    So the spivs showing their true marks now.

    “The group representing Australia’s most powerful boardrooms will on Thursday release a proposal to water down the Corporations Act and ASIC Act, saying corporate directors need a ”safe harbour” from personal liability.”

    And in future, when Coalition MPs retire, guess where they are heading?

  45. I heard on radio this arvo that there are many on the back bench who do not support the ridiculous Abetz view of the world.

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