Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers bayside Brisbane north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – together with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park east through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), although the margin was little affected.
 |
| Red and teal numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Labor and the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but it was otherwise usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won the seat and then consolidated her hold with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as Labor’s member in 1993, but was unseated together with all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues at the 1996 election.
Swan returned to parliament at the following election in 1998, when he accounted for a 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%), consistent with a trend in inner urban seats across the country. The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%. Labor’s dire polling throughout its second term in government, particularly in Queensland, led to grave fears about his capacity to retain the seat in 2013, but in the event Lilley provided the party with one of its pleasant election night surprises by swinging only 1.9%, enabling Swan to hang on with a margin of 1.3%.
Swan’s path to parliament began with a position as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to his former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to Treasury after the 2004 election defeat, and retained it in government despite suggestions Rudd had promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.
Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, a rivalry developed between Swan and Kevin Rudd with the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter forming part of the Right’s “old guard”. Swan was in the camp opposed Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s move against Beazley in December 2009, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and the three leadership crises which transpired in 2012 and 2013. As Rudd marshalled forces for his first push in February 2012, Swan spoke of his “dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues”. When Rudd finally succeeded in toppling Gillard in June 2013, Swan immediately resigned as deputy leader and Treasurer. Unlike many of his colleagues he resolved to continue his career in parliament, which he has continued to do in opposition on the back bench.
Bugler
[Forcing the ALP’s hands in such ways to make them undetectable …]
I thought that was Shorten’s plan … 😉
If you are in a pressurised aluminium tube 10 kilometers in the air, travelling at hundred of knots and get blown up. How much is left to be repatriated?
Just Askin. 🙁
I can’t stand to suffer the presence of Thomas Paine anymore. Regular readers will know I have a rarely-invoked rule where I ban people on grounds of inexcusable stupidity. TP’s comment the other night, where he cited RT and Itar-TASS as evidence that we weren’t being told the true story behind MH17, well and truly cleared the bar.
imacca,
Perhaps.
Fran,
A bit cryptic for me, Fran 😛
I’m guess the cut and thrust of my post was to say that I don’t understand why Milne is trying to start a war with the ALP and give them reason to reject not only the Greens but push them away from some of their shared policy positions and attacking what they achieved last term for frankly no discernible reason. Portraying the ALP as backtracking on CC policy, while it worked in 2010 (because it was frankly a reasonable suggestion back then), is unlikely to garner them much or anything now considering the history.
[ I don’t know how you infer intent in relation the current tragedy? ]
Someone tracked an aircraft, and launched a semi-active radar guided missile at it. Being “semi-active” means that the missile homes in on radar waves from an illumination radar that are reflected off the target.
Now if you are tracking a target, with some systems it is possible to launch on inertial guidance and put the missile in a position to intercept. Then you turn on the illumination radar to light up the target for the actual intercept and hit. Means less exposure for the launch vehicle. With the BUK system their radar is a combined tracking and illumination unit and the operator just switched between functions. Likely they had the radar illuminating the target from the moment of launch.
Whatever, that missile was not going to hit anything other than a random spot on the ground UNLESS someone was tracking and guiding it to a selected target after it was launched. If the radar is shut down or destroyed while the missile is in flight the missile can no longer “see” the target and will not follow and hit it.
So yup. I confidently assert the shoot down of this aircraft was deliberate. The “intent” was to destroy that aircraft.
Whether or not the shooters knew it was a passenger and not military aircraft is arguable but irrelevant.
They didn’t check.
A simple check on the internet:
http://planefinder.net/route/
would have shown that there were civil flights transiting the area at roughly the altitude of their target. At best this is criminal negligence that has cost nearly 300 lives.
Apparently, you can get $16.80 to tweet for the destruction of the ABC.
https://twitter.com/john_hanna/status/490729771156774912
Listed from “Media Services LNP” It could be an elaborate hoax of course, but it’s interesting.
William Bowe
I can well understand it. He was more pain than most would bear, though for mine his ‘that was the point I was making’ today didn’t merely cross the bar but added in a flashy manoeuvre in passing — double twist with reverse pike.
Strangely, that may have been a rationale for enduring him. Such art should be recognised. Then again, when I reflect on him in a different area of his obsession, the price of his presence was still preposterous.
(Ok … That makes two alliterative sentences this afternoon using a consonant with an ‘r’. 😉 )
[CTar1
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 11:45 am | Permalink
The only reason for interfering to ground access to the crash site is about removing remanent parts of the ‘Buk’ SAM.]
Well, there was another reason reported, and perhaps even correct: a bit of al fresco looting.
Bugler
Milne wants to get a sot across the bows to ensure Shorten doesn’t backtrack or propose a dud scheme. It’s as simple as that.
[
If you are in a pressurised aluminium tube 10 kilometers in the air, travelling at hundred of knots and get blown up. How much is left to be repatriated?
]
Well, enough for the Russian Separatists to gather, move and hide it would seem.
[
Nazanine Moshiri @nazaninemoshiri · 2h
Just passed by #Donetsk morgue. The refrigerated truck with #mh17 bodies has gone. Moved by sepaeatists. It is not clear where?
]
[
Nazanine Moshiri @nazaninemoshiri · 2h
Hoping the @osce gets some answers today regarding #mh17 bodies. We told #osce yesterday about morgue. Now those corpses have been moved.
]
https://twitter.com/nazaninemoshiri
[Fran Barlow
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 3:57 pm | Permalink
Bugler
Milne wants to get a sot across the bows to ensure Shorten doesn’t backtrack or propose a dud scheme. It’s as simple as that.]
I know several sots in the House/Senate. Which one were you thinking of firing across Shorten’s bows, were he really a ship?
I should probably be more tolerant. But I’m not, and that makes TP’s removal essential for the maintenance of a healthy blood pressure. And a bit of judicious banning does make this place a more pleasant environment for all (most) concerned. I felt bad when I banned Sean Tisme, because I recognised how similar his brand of partisanship was to that of a number of this site’s Labor supporters. But there was no question that his removal lanced a boil, and caused the tone here to become more pleasant and constructive.
William
IMHO, and for what it is worth, (having raised your blood pressure from time-to-time myself), you do a very good job moderating the site.
Fran, couldn’t she just talk to him normally?
“I should probably be more tolerant.”
William,
I think you have been more than tolerate and patient with some of the stupid postings on this site. You’re doing a good job. None of us are going to lose any sleep over the rantings of TP.
William Bowe
Let’s not forget TP was a usual suspect in the Rudd/Gillard wars and relished any opportunity to rehash it.
In every sense he was a bore.
[253
William Bowe]
Well done.
A report from on the ground in the Ukraine. What a shambles.
[
HRABOVE, Ukraine — A muted sun baked golden fields of hay and sunflowers. Bloated and mangled bodies gave off a fetid stench. A burly gunman who called himself Grumpy stepped into the road as a convoy of international observers snaked along the bumpy country road to the crash site of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17.
“I will let none of you pass! I have an order!” he shouted. Motley gunmen in ragtag uniforms flanked out alongside him. A lanky rebel in a beekeeping suit who reeked of alcohol folded his automatic rifle in his arms. The observers wandered out, then meekly retreated.
Two days after MH17 was shot down over east Ukraine — turning a simmering separatist conflict into a crisis of global proportions — the crash site remains a hideous mess that will make it harder for investigators to establish what happened — and for relatives to get peace. As Ukraine, Russia, and Moscow-backed rebels trade barbs over which side fired the missile that brought the Boeing 777 jet down, the bodies of the 298 passengers and crew killed instantaneously were still strewn across a field, decomposing in the 85-degree heat.
]
http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/chaos-at-malaysian-airlines-crash-site-leaves-victims-by-the
DN
[Fran, couldn’t she just talk to him normally?]
The jury is still out on that one. Listening to him, all signs point to no. If it is possible though, marking out some ground first is essential.
LNP Trolls
Bugler
[I know several sots in the House/Senate. Which one were you thinking of firing across Shorten’s bows, were he really a ship?]
Well you could take your pick. Senator MacDonald seems a pretty good sot. 😉
[I think you have been more than tolerate and patient with some of the stupid postings on this site.]
Yeah, but what is stupid? If you follow me.
fran
[Listening to him, all signs point to no. ]
What a load of cobblers. Shorten is a negotiator. It’s what he’s spent his life doing.
If Milne can’t talk to him ‘normally’, that’s an inditement of her skills, not his.
Incidentally, there’s a village called Sot in Serbia. Believe it or not, it is in the Syrmia District. Try saying that quickly three times.
😉
William,
I am what might be called an “extreme lurker” in that I might post one a year if that. But I have lurked on and off for several years (pre crikey anyway, if not under this account) Normally I am happy just to chew on my popcorn and watch events unfold. But you have done the right thing in banning TP. I have scraped smarter things off my shoe with a stick.
[I can’t stand to suffer the presence of Thomas Paine anymore. Regular readers will know I have a rarely-invoked rule where I ban people on grounds of inexcusable stupidity. TP’s comment the other night, where he cited RT and Itar-TASS as evidence that we weren’t being told the true story behind MH17, well and truly cleared the bar.]
Thank you.
If we miss him, we are always free to tune into Russia Today.
Zoomster
If Shorten’s a negotiator he will see what Milne is doing as preparatory.
Shorten’s remarks the other day on the air crash, the vacuous and trite ‘loss of innocence’ doesn’t recommend him.
Yes, meher baba, no coincidence that the looniest Rudd lovers are also the most apologetic of the regime in Moscow.
Oops …
[don’t recommend him … ]
DL
[If we miss him, we are always free to tune into Russia Today.]
Another reporter has resigned from Russia Today as she was fed up with being expected to spew Putins propaganda.
[A report from on the ground in the Ukraine. What a shambles.
]
The investigation and recovery of the dead will be close to the most hampered in living memory.
You do have to wonder what the thugs have to hide if it was just an “accident”.
I saw one thug on the French news this morning accusing the European inspectors of “doing nothing” and wasting European tax dollars. Funny that – given it was his band of armed thugs in the area preventing them from doing anything!
fran
the gymnastics you do when you’ve been caught out in a moment of hyperbole are always amusing, but they’re beneath you.
Saying that Shorten can’t be trusted on climate change because he said some vacuous things about the air disaster makes you look silly.
@Fran/274
Almost as tragic as a Town called Jezza (aka Jeromy Clarkson).
Fran, preparatory would be “let’s talk”.
Either they’ve already talked and this is the outcome, or Milne is overcomplicating things.
[Another reporter has resigned from Russia Today as she was fed up with being expected to spew Putins propaganda.]
Yes, these western journalist ‘mercenaries’ that go and work for RT quickly realise that the regime in Moscow leaves the Western media barons (Murdoch et al) for dead when it comes to propaganda and editorial micromanaging.
Old habits die hard in Russia — free press never really took off sadly — the Yestlin Government didn’t last long enough to allow a pluralistic society to exist.
Darren Laver
The bloody corrupt Yeltsin government was the one that oversaw the creation of the oligarchs and the collapse of the economy and resultant flourishing of the mafia.
[ zoidlord
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 4:40 pm | Permalink
@Fran/274
Almost as tragic as a Town called Jezza (aka Jeromy Clarkson).
]
——————————————————
Top 10 Rudest Place Names in Britain
So with no further ado, in reverse order, the winners are…
10. Titty Ho, Northamptonshire
9. Back Passage, City of London
8. Fine Bush Lane, West London
7. Crapstone, Devon
6. Sluts Hole Lane, Norfolk
5. Penistone, Yorkshire
4. Dick Place, Edinburgh2
3. Pennycomequick Hill, Plymouth
2. Minge Lane, Worcestershire
1. Butt Hole Road, Yorkshire
Of course the UK being the kind of place it is, there’s absolutely trillions more of these to be found. Some that didn’t make this list include:
•Cocks, Cornwall
•Thong, Kent
•Crotch Crescent, Oxfordshire
•Wetwang, East Yorkshire
•Twatt, Shetland
•Slag Lane, Wiltshire
•Hardon road, Wolverhampton
•Fanny Hands Lane, Lincolnshire
If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check Fucking, Austria.
Aussie ones :
ertainly Australia does quite well in the silly place names stakes. We’ve got Bunyip, Nar Nar Goon… Allegedly there is a place called Dunnydoo (NSW), which could go with Innaloo (WA). And of course Poowong (Vic).
But rude place names? Well apparently there is a Middle Intercourse Island (Qld). For sheer manlyness, there’s Iron Knob (Qld SA). There’s Mount Buggery (Vic). And the only other one I can think of right now is the old favourite, Tittybong (Vic).
Names with sexual reference innuendo that come to mind include:
Gnowangerup (South-east W.A), Packenham Upper (outside Melbourne,
Victoria), Koolyanobbing (near Kalgoorlie, W.A), Marble Bar (near
Port Hedland, W.A), Devil’s Marbles (N.T), Come-by-Chance (Mid NSW,
near Walgett), The Entrance (Central coast, NSW), Smiggins holes
(snowfields, NSW), Woodenbong (Northern NSW, nr Casino).
Can anybody else think of some others?
badcat
Intercourse Island is up Dampier way in W.A.
Re Badcat @287: Dunedoo, NSW, is a real place: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunedoo,_New_South_Wales
SMC@268
Your excerpt of the deterioration of the exposed bodies of the passengers and the seemingly total disregard by the militia or whatever they call themselves, stands in pathetic counterpoint to the headlines in today’s edition of Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper which is, “Bring Them Home”.
My reading of various sources from BBC and elsewhere seems to show that just where the bodies are is guess work at best. It is claimed in some instances that 100 bodies have been found and taken away – to who knows where – while other reports maintain bodies are strewn around the place waiting for collection.
The odds of any quick and efficient response to this disaster is set against either a deliberate attempt to thwart any “interference” or just plain and simple inability to handle the crisis – that is, incompetence.
Are we to believe, that if VP so wished, he could not order a humane and ordered approach to the repatriation of the bodies, regardless of the political spin?
The belief that PMTA can have any influence on the Russian leadership is laughable.
The ABC has been monotonously chiming all day with “Australia is to take a lead in……..” with regard to the recovery of the bodies.
Meanwhile, I gather the PM of Holland has actually spoken to Putin.
As somebody pointed out much earlier we are as a flea to an elephant when it comes to Russia paying any attention at all to Australia.
What is also disappointing to my eyes – much like the response to the Bali bombing – is the total self-immersion of the Oz media in the impact on Oz.
There is almost a wallowing in self concern.
Is it bad that an ever-so-small part of me wanted to murder every single person mentioned in this ridiculous puff piece?
http://mobile.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/fitspo-healthies-and-nutritionist-bloggers-why-healthy-is-the-new-black/story-fneuz9ev-1226995074661
I confess that I knew I would be irritated by the link before I clicked it.
How on earth does Gnowangerup infer sexual references?
Actually don’t answer that. I don’t think I want to know.
[ confessions
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 5:04 pm | Permalink
How on earth does Gnowangerup infer sexual references?
]
————————————————
GO WANGER UP …
URBAN DICTIONARY :
Wanger
Penis Cock
Another way of saying a penis.
William Bowe@253
Given that Thomas Paine agreed with Meher Baba who I also agreed with, when do you intend booting Meher Baba and me?
The reality is that, much as TP’s opinions may differ from yours and annoy you, they are far less stupid than many others that you seem to tolerate and whose idiot authors you seem to protect.
bemused
Careful, your pathological need to be persecuted is showing.
Bemused, I agreed with Meher Baba. Thomas Paine said he agreed with Meher Baba, because he was too stupid to recognise that his perspective on the matter, which as always was sensible and intelligent, was utterly at odds with his own idiot view that the problems in Ukraine are entirely the work of the US, and that Vladimir Putin has passively responded to the situation the US has created for him.
And if anyone here is “protected”, it’s you. The single easiest thing I could do to make my job easier and lower the temperature here is throw you out on your ear.
imacca@255
You are correct: the plane was shot down because someone targeted it and then deliberately guided a missile into it. They either didn’t know or didn’t care that it was a commercial airliner.
You can call them criminally negligent if you like. But from their own perspective they were soldiers (either rebel or Ukrainian) fighting in a war zone. If you are a soldier in a war zone, and someone or something not clearly on your side suddenly appears – it is reasonable to expect you might shoot at it.
In my view, the greatest criminal negligence seems to be that of the person or people who decided that it was ok for a commercial airliner to fly over an active war zone. Commercial planes certainly did not fly over Iraq during the Second Gulf War, or over battle zones in Afghanistan & etc. Why was this war zone considered (quite wrongly) to be safe?
TP really seems to have pushed William’s button. I don’t think he lies much outside the normal range of discourse on this blog.