Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers bayside Brisbane north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – together with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park east through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), although the margin was little affected.
 |
| Red and teal numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Labor and the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but it was otherwise usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won the seat and then consolidated her hold with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as Labor’s member in 1993, but was unseated together with all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues at the 1996 election.
Swan returned to parliament at the following election in 1998, when he accounted for a 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%), consistent with a trend in inner urban seats across the country. The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%. Labor’s dire polling throughout its second term in government, particularly in Queensland, led to grave fears about his capacity to retain the seat in 2013, but in the event Lilley provided the party with one of its pleasant election night surprises by swinging only 1.9%, enabling Swan to hang on with a margin of 1.3%.
Swan’s path to parliament began with a position as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to his former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to Treasury after the 2004 election defeat, and retained it in government despite suggestions Rudd had promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.
Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, a rivalry developed between Swan and Kevin Rudd with the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter forming part of the Right’s “old guard”. Swan was in the camp opposed Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s move against Beazley in December 2009, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and the three leadership crises which transpired in 2012 and 2013. As Rudd marshalled forces for his first push in February 2012, Swan spoke of his “dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues”. When Rudd finally succeeded in toppling Gillard in June 2013, Swan immediately resigned as deputy leader and Treasurer. Unlike many of his colleagues he resolved to continue his career in parliament, which he has continued to do in opposition on the back bench.
151
Centre lives in a computer? 😮
meher baba
Something Patrick Cockburn wondered at the end of his article on it.
[Malaysia Airlines MH17 crash: Collateral damage is inevitable in the chaos of proxy war
We live in an era in which great military powers do not want to confront each other directly so they operate through local proxies.
……………… An Su-25 fighter and an An-26 transport plane were shot down on Monday and Wednesday, making it all the more amazing that commercial flights were still being routed over a war zone in which missiles had just been used.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/malaysia-airlines-mh17-crash-collateral-damage-is-inevitable-in-the-chaos-of-proxy-war-9615823.html
William Bowe@298
Please identify my offending comments.
I don’t think I have posted anything comparable with yours that called me a wanker.
Bemused, one way or another, I’m not going to be hosting an argument with you about this.
Kadaitcha Man@300
I prefer TP to the turgid prose and rantings of some others here. At the very least he is less frequent.
[In my view, the greatest criminal negligence seems to be that of the person or people who decided that it was ok for a commercial airliner to fly over an active war zone. Commercial planes certainly did not fly over Iraq during the Second Gulf War, or over battle zones in Afghanistan & etc. Why was this war zone considered (quite wrongly) to be safe?]
I agree. It seems a corporate or bureaucratic ‘failure’ isn’t a bogey that some seem to need.
[In my view, the greatest criminal negligence seems to be that of the person or people who decided that it was ok for a commercial airliner to fly over an active war zone.]
So many others had reportedly previously flown the same flight path without incident in the days, weeks, possibly months leading up to Friday’s attack. I agree with you that in hindsight the airlines shouldn’t have flown over a civil war zone, and ultimately the airline needs to justify its decision, but given so many others had done so, I can understand why the airline thought it would okay.
poroti@302
The normal route would have taken it safely to the south of the area in which it was shot down. I read a report which indicated it was re-routed to the north and at a lower altitude than originally planned to avoid developing thunderstorms and other air traffic.
Hey William. Thanks for the praise. From my perspective, the irony of TP’s statement that he agreed with me was that I was actually having a go at him personally at the start of my post.
To me, TP is just one of your standard lefty conspiracy theorists. He fixated about Rudd, because- in his warped mind – Rudd was a hero standing alone against the evil conspiracy of the NSW Labor Right. Never mind that Rudd was always a creature of the NSW Right and was only briefly abandoned by them in 2010 when they briefly realised how incompetent he was. But they happily pushed him back into the PMship in 2013.
But the beauty of conspiracy theories is that they don’t need to be true, but just need to be consistent with enough of the facts to allow you to shut out the rest.
Anyway, I have no views on who should/shouldn’t be banned from this excellent forum and am happy to leave it to you. If you ever decide to ban me, then I’ll be able to get more of the things done that I should be doing.
Ahh, I still had the link for my 308.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/19/mh17-changing-course-storms-pilot?CMP=ema_632
Obviously paid troll attack on the ABC. Liberals haven’t sold the public on the b**lsh** that is left wing biased so have to resort to these type of low acts. Why do people keep trusting the right wing when they keep proving they are real low lifes?
TP’s transgression on this occasion appears to have been in somewhat credulously accepting what the official russian news agency had to say. I hope people aren’t doing the same with official Ukraine sources.
The scoreline then: MB takes a shot at TP, TP says the shot just taken at him is “exactly what I have been saying all along”, and I ban him for being inexcusably stupid. My moderation FTW.
meher baba@309
IIRC, TP was mainly agreeing with your summation of the known facts which I also think you did very well.
Like TP, I am not prepared to jump in and blame the Russians for THIS SPECIFIC INCIDENT, suspecting, as suggested by the recordings that the Ukranians released that it was a bunch of separatists acting autonomously.
Russia does bear responsibility for whatever support it provides the separatists which fuels this war.
Other powers that have interfered in Ukraine and its internal politics do not have entirely clean hands either.
Tricot
The latest I’ve read from reporters on the ground is that most of the bodies have been found and moved. Where to is another matter. Coal Miners have again volunteered to go out and find the still missing bodies.
confessions
That was from the European pilot association president. It had also been instructed to fly a couple of thousand feet lower by local traffic control. Something that will set conspiracy theorists off.
[Pilots’ group president says MH17 shot down after attempt to avoid storms
Malaysia Airlines plane was flying lower than planned and may have diverted on to more northerly course over Donetsk]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/19/mh17-changing-course-storms-pilot
TP is to facts as oil is to water…
Every aviation and military expert I’ve heard thinks it all but certain that the plane was shot down by separatists. I’m not actually aware of much that the Ukrainian authorities have had to say about the matter. The outrageous and demonstrable falsehoods have come entirely from the Russian regime and its shamefully compliant media. It is those falsehoods that have caused me to become so enraged about this, both with respect to the regime itself and those idiots in the west who excuse it or seek to muddy the waters with the intellectually bankrupt game of moral equivalence. The actual downing of the aircraft I am quite capable of recognising as an accident of war for which the airline is at least as culpable as anyone.
The big powers will certainly not go to war on the mere downing of an civilian airliner.
This was amply demonstrated years ago, when the words ‘Cold War’ had much more potency.
Korean Flight 007 was destroyed by a Russian fighter (and the Russian pilot just did as he was told and had no scruples at the time) while President Ronald Reagan, while doing a lot of sabre rattling, did exactly nothing after the outrage of the incident had simmered down.
Given that South Korea was (and still is) part of the US containment of China from a military point of view, the fact that a hawkish Republican such as Reagan was just tough talk at the time suggests tough talk is all we will get from either Obama or Putin when it comes to the Malaysian flight notwithstanding the 20 plus US citizens on board at the time.
[ Kadaitcha Man
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 5:18 pm | Permalink
TP really seems to have pushed William’s button. I don’t think he lies much outside the normal range of discourse on this blog.
]
——————————————————
In the top left hand corner of ( at least ) MY computer pages there is a red coloured box that says :
CRIKEY
Independent Media Independent Minds
so I look up *Independent* and it says
independent
adjective: independent
free from outside control; not subject to another’s authority.
OK so I am to trust only WESTERN sources for the TRUTH – especially OUR leaders !!!!!
G W Bush/C Powell at the UN/T Blair/ J Howard
WMD anyone ???????
TP is a PAIN IN THE ASS as well as PAINE surname but – hey I thought we lived in Australia not the USSR …..
He posts his *stuff* – we look at what he says and say “Load of Commie shit ” ……or maybe there ‘some’ truth in there …. or F**K off Putin stooge ……
its THAT to and fro that MAKES THIS BLOG and NOT just what BOLT or Alan JONES or HADLEY shoves down our throats – with recourse or disagreement
Foul language, racist rants, sexist abuse etc etc …. ok, that stuff is off base … but different ideas and opinions should have a chance of evaluation and we all get the chance to give thumbs up or down …… and every poster make gain from OUR response to what they are putting up …
Well nice knowing you all – I guess this makes me next for Genickschussanlage
Kadaitcha Man@312
Yes, I prefer to not rely too heavily on either Russian or Ukrainian sources at this stage.
From a report in the Guardian, a lot of the Russian public don’t trust their media and regard the separatists as ill disciplined morons. Sounds about right to me.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/19/mh17-changing-course-storms-pilot?CMP=ema_632
Warnings to Russophobes – this article is written by a Russian.
Rex
Is your comment @317 really necessary?
Whacking someone when the are down really necessary.
poroti:
Without those flight boxes we aren’t likely to know anything for sure on that front.
As to the conspiracies you should see some of the rubbish circling Facebook! Total kook stuff. It reminds me of those loons who blamed the CIA for Sept 11 terrorist attacks.
SMC@315
This body collection seems to be confirmed by the BBC but where there are to be taken is another matter. Some reports suggest to a morgue in a place not so far away.
It would be interesting to see who is actually pulling the strings on the grounds.
It is my view that if Putin really wants to win the plaudits of the crowd, he should be exerting control over his local Dogs of War to ensure at least the humanitarian stuff is done.
But then the current Russian regime does not seem so far removed from its Soviet predecessor when it comes to secrets.
As the cliche might go – you can taken the man out of the KGB but your can’t take the KGB out of the man.
William Bowe@318
Oh dear…
Meher Baba @ 120
[Here are the facts as I understand them.
1. The plane was most likely either shot down by Ukrainian Russian separatists who thought it was a Ukrainianmilitary plane or (and I suspect this is highly unlikely, but hasn’t been disproven yet to my satisfaction) Ukrainian government forces who thought it was a Russian military aircraft.]
You, and others, are leaping to conclusions William. Meher Baba is far more nuanced as anyone thinking it through would be.
But if you want to believe Putin pressed the button that fired the missile then go right ahead. It’s your credibility.
MTBW
Probably not.
[But if you want to believe Putin pressed the button that fired the missile then go right ahead.]
Bemused, you’re very fond of whining that people are “verballing” you. Yet here you are, imputing to me something utterly unlike anything that I’ve actually said.
confessions
The Kiev flight control have audio and radar recordings so we can find that out even without the black boxes. The Ukraine security people have already confiscated them.
[
But if you want to believe Putin pressed the button that fired the missile then go right ahead. It’s your credibility.
]
Except he didn’t say that.
There is one point there worth responding to though – the only thing I didn’t agree with about MB’s comment was that in saying it merely “unlikely” that it was shot down by a Ukrainian military plane, he set a higher bar on reasonable doubt than I would have done.
[
Well nice knowing you all – I guess this makes me next for Genickschussanlage
]
Comparing yourself to victims of Nazi brutality. Classy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genickschussanlage
Good to see William banning useful idiots like TP.
poroti:
I did wonder about the other end recordings at the time of posting my comment. But wouldn’t that information only tell us what the pilots were communicating with the flight control mob?
badcat@320
“Genickschussanlage”
What a great word! I learn a lot from your posts.
You should have realised by now there is a strong pro-censorship group on PB and you can identify some from who called for TP to be booted and the sycophants who could not resist gloating by expressing their approval of William’s action.
Tricot @324
Well said.
It seems at the moment there is much confusion as to where the bodies are being taken. This Al Jazeera reporter who is on the ground has been trying to find out.
https://twitter.com/nazaninemoshiri
Presumably some relatives are going to show up soon accompanied by media which makes things more awkward for the mercenary drunkards (not) securing it.
William Bowe@327
OK, I admit, a hyperbolic extrapolation from what you are saying.
But the truth is that, at this stage, there are still a lot of unknowns.
Separatists now saying they will agree to a truce to let monitors in.
[
A rebel leader in Ukraine has this morning said that the pro-Russian fighters will guarantee the safety of international monitors at the Malaysian jet’s crash site if Kiev agrees to a truce.
]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10974050/Malaysia-Airlines-plane-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html
[ Sir Mad Cyril
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 5:53 pm | Permalink
Well nice knowing you all – I guess this makes me next for Genickschussanlage
Comparing yourself to victims of Nazi brutality. Classy.
]
——————————————–
Thats what MY relatives got for speaking up against their beliefs ….. its a ‘family’ thing ya know ….
Sir Mad Cyril@335
I would think there would not be too many places capable of handling that many bodies. They may well have gone to a number of destinations.
William, I wish you would reconsider your ban on TP, as (a) it is not a crime to be stupid, ( if indeed he is, and so what anyway) and (b) he often makes interesting contributions, more so than some of the more malicious trolls around the place.
Anyway, enough from me on this.
KM, this isn’t the first time I’ve banned TP, and it may not be the last. I most certainly do not agree that he “often makes interesting contributions”, but each to their own.
More utter bile from the Russian Government media org ITAR -TASS….
“The purpose of their plane plot is to convince the global community that the people of Donbas are criminals who do not deserve any indulgences; to get a carte blanche to free use of the ‘scorched earth’ tactics in the Donbas region; make international public turn a blind eye on mass extermination of people who are fighting for their freedom against forces that are personifying Nazism of the 21st century,” the vice-premier of the Donetsk People’s Republic said.
“There can be no other explanation for Kiev’s unwillingness to conclude at least temporary ceasefire to ensure full-fledged investigation into the air crash in which the citizens of third countries died,” Purgin went on to say.
He emphasized that the plane tragedy was the cause for disruption of a regular round of ceasefire consultations in which OSCE representatives were supposed to take part.
Purgin said that the fear of being exposed could be the only explanation for Kiev’s increasing military operation and unwillingness to send international experts to the crash site. The Kiev regime is referring to the danger of military hostilities which it itself is building up.
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741502
Topical quiz. Who said this?
“The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them.”
William Bowe@343
He at least has the courage to defy the PB ‘hive mind’.
[
Thats what MY relatives got for speaking up against their beliefs ….. its a ‘family’ thing ya know ….
]
badcat, I think it’s safe to assume you won’t be suffering the same fate at the hands of William. Besides, it’s his blog. He can block / allow whoever the hell he wants to post on here.
Anyway, I’ll shut up about it now. William can handle himself.
This mornings PvO interview with Ms Milne really has reset the agenda for the next 2 years.
Bill Shorten will now be subject to venomous attacks from the hard right and the Green left.
To his advantage, he has the experience of the past 6 years to formulate a centrist policy agenda that should garner majority voter support.
What he cannot do is waver in the wind.
He cannot waver in the wind and capitulate on policy like former PM Rudd – just stick to a simple centrist agenda and he will whether the onslaught from the extremes.
[ If you are a soldier in a war zone, and someone or something not clearly on your side suddenly appears – it is reasonable to expect you might shoot at it. ]
meher baba:
Yup, but unless you are an idiot, only if it is a direct threat or you have orders to engage. If you are looking after a system like this you REALLY dont want to be giving its position away by popping of random shots at anything passing by. I do not think its reasonable that they popped one off without identifying their target.
[ the greatest criminal negligence seems to be that of the person or people who decided that it was ok for a commercial airliner to fly over an active war zone. ]
I was rather surprised to learn that commercial airliners were in the area. Flying over a war zone at height is now a practice i would think is totally obsolete since its obvious serious SAM systems do get into the hands of nongs who only half know how to use them.
Jesus, the frickin arrogance of people to pitch a fit at William over how he runs this place.
Nobody forces you to either comment or read the comments here, so if the banning of a commenter upsets you that much, why not start up your own blog and invite that person to comment at your place? That way you won’t have to miss a single one of his comments and the rest of us don’t have to suffer this constant whingeing about William’s moderation.
Rossmore@344
Yes, reporting remarks by Andrei Purgin, the vice-premier of the Donetsk People’s Republic, writing on the official website of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
I take them as being self serving.