Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers bayside Brisbane north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – together with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park east through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), although the margin was little affected.
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| Red and teal numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Labor and the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but it was otherwise usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won the seat and then consolidated her hold with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as Labor’s member in 1993, but was unseated together with all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues at the 1996 election.
Swan returned to parliament at the following election in 1998, when he accounted for a 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%), consistent with a trend in inner urban seats across the country. The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%. Labor’s dire polling throughout its second term in government, particularly in Queensland, led to grave fears about his capacity to retain the seat in 2013, but in the event Lilley provided the party with one of its pleasant election night surprises by swinging only 1.9%, enabling Swan to hang on with a margin of 1.3%.
Swan’s path to parliament began with a position as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to his former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to Treasury after the 2004 election defeat, and retained it in government despite suggestions Rudd had promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.
Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, a rivalry developed between Swan and Kevin Rudd with the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter forming part of the Right’s “old guard”. Swan was in the camp opposed Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s move against Beazley in December 2009, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and the three leadership crises which transpired in 2012 and 2013. As Rudd marshalled forces for his first push in February 2012, Swan spoke of his “dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues”. When Rudd finally succeeded in toppling Gillard in June 2013, Swan immediately resigned as deputy leader and Treasurer. Unlike many of his colleagues he resolved to continue his career in parliament, which he has continued to do in opposition on the back bench.
Sorry but Abbott performed quite well this morning 😯
*Darts out of the computer
I just read that for many companies undoing their carbon price increases will be akin to separating a scrambled egg.
Methinks many companies with malice of forethought “scrambled the egg” in order to conceal price increases that they were able to disguise as all part of the “egg”.
Now Abbott has put through legislation that only requires power companies to unscramble the egg protecting many corporations and adding to their profit margins and CEO bonuses.
WWP
[I don’t mark her as hard for that as many, Abbott would still have called it a tax and Newscorp and shockjock radio would have backed Abbott and criticised Gillard for wasting political energy over a fight on words … it was lose lose.]
Undoubtedly, but then at least it would have been a matter of controversy, and then she would have had a rebuttal, arguing that the words matter and bringing in Abbott’s 2009 support both for a carbon tax (October) and an ETS (July). That would have muddied the waters. She could then have said that the confusion of many on these matters was precisely why we needed to be careful on what we call things. She could then have reminded them that this was precisely the distinction she made in that interview in mid-late August 2010 where she distinguished the two types of scheme. She could have claimed consistency.
I lost track of the number of times (but it was certainly more than 20 occasions) when I rang various media outlets or wrote to them complaining about their partisan use of ‘tax’ only to be told that Gillard was happy to have it so described.
There was a hilarious interview when the Tory UK Environment secretary came out to Australia (Greg Barker if I recall but ready to be corrected) and spoke with Fran Kelly on AM who reflexively channelling Murdoch called it “a carbon tax) only for him to correct her in the tone of a schoolmaster correcting an errant child that they were introducing an ETS, explaining the distinction. Sycophant that she is, she retreated and even corrected herself on one occasion.
I had to laugh. Gillard ought to have been able to do this.
nappin
You must have missed the 20% swing to Labor in the seat of Stafford
[confessions
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 11:18 am | PERMALINK
Darn:
I have no idea whether their efforts will be effective or not, but you must surely agree that Team Abbott will be all over MH17 as a way of attempting to get Abbott looking like a leader, something he hasn’t looked like for a long time now.
If you didn’t watch Insiders this morning, try to view it online to see what zoomster was referring to about the media boosting Abbott.]
Fess
As I said in my earlier post (102) I have no doubt what they will be trying to do. Anything to try and divert focus away from the pigs breakfast their budget has turned into. I’m simply saying I do not believe they will be successful.
The only reason for interfering to ground access to the crash site is about removing remanent parts of the ‘Buk’ SAM.
These have been around for many years but have been extensively updated. The Russian have, of course, the most recent and capable version. (Also the Syrians have a modern version a little less capable).
The Ukraine has them as well. But theirs not receiving ‘Updates’.
The differences between versions could identify ‘who did it’.
It appears the Dutch PM managed to speak to Putin
[Dutch PM Rutte has ‘intense’ telephone conversation with Putin http://t.co/Ll08sbwlEG— Derek Barry (@derekbarry) July 20, 2014]
Darn:
If’s efforts with MH370 are any indication, you’re most likely right.
poroti@130
Yes indeed poroti, Angela Merkel is indeed a real leader as opposed to the blundering idiot we have as our ‘leader’.
There is also a lot of bullshit and bluster coming out of the US.
*If Abbott’s efforts* that should read.
victoria
As has Angela Merkel.
[Merkel, Putin agree on international probe of MH17 crash]
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/merkel-putin-agree-on/1272472.html
poroti
Yep. So far our PM has achieved a big sweet f all
Didn’t miss it, Victoria, and heartened by it. But I refer to Williams broader interpretation of the result as an 8.7% swing – this makes sense to me. More work needed, in other words!!!
I think many people will still be looking for their $550 in 2016 and punish Abbott
[ but you must surely agree that Team Abbott will be all over MH17 as a way of attempting to get Abbott looking like a leader, something he hasn’t looked like for a long time now. ]
They are going as hard as they can on that theme. That’s obvious. But i will find it harder once the saturation media coverage tails off in a couple of weeks.
They will get more mileage than out of the MH370 disappearance, but have to be careful as this one goes on. If they are seen to be grandstanding and not achieving anything real when the families that have lost people are over the initial shock and trying to get closure then it will not be pretty.
[ Anything to try and divert focus away from the pigs breakfast their budget has turned into. ]
Which is an issue a lot more relevant to most after the shock and disgust of MH17 being shot down fades as it will.
The other thing that this diverts from is that there are 150 or so people being held on a boat at sea somewhere. Whats their status health wise?? Are they locked up on the boat? Why the FWARK can’t they be taken to Xmas Island until the High Court makes its determination?? There is NO reason that they cant be treated humanely apart from the domestic politics. Henderson on Insiders is a wanker. 🙁
bemused
[There is also a lot of bullshit and bluster coming out of the US.]
All the usual suspects from the War Party who went ape when Obama “failed” to bomb the crap out of Syria.
I’m not sure what people actually want out of Abbott here – there’s literally nothing he can do.
And Germany’s simpering approach to diplomacy with Russia will be about as (in)effective as its proven every other time they’ve tried it – Putin agrees to play nice, then doesn’t, then Germany quietly pretends they never had anything to do with it.
And all the Russian apologists here would have cried foul murder if the Western supported Libyan rebels had shot down a passenger plane.
That the US practices abhorrent foreign policies does not excuse others for doing so. Russia either supplied the weapons that shot down this plane, or supplied the technical support that allowed the rebels to use them. And now they’re clearly trying to cover up their involvement and obstruct the recovery of evidence from the scene. It’s disgraceful.
MeherB
[1. The plane was most likely either shot down by Ukrainian Russian separatists who thought it was a Ukrainianmilitary plane or (and I suspect this is highly unlikely, but hasn’t been disproven yet to my satisfaction) Ukrainian government forces who thought it was a Russian military aircraft.
]
Yes, highly unlikely, in fact a certainty according to our PM.
However it is also true that Ukraine stands to benefit strongly. The eastern insurgency was going badly, Western resolve and interest was waning, and now, Kiev’s integration into the EU and NATO is much more likely. Western military advice and supplies, maybe even boots on the ground, are ready to flow into Ukraine.
Plus Putin and his proxies are under real pressure.
meher baba
I agree with most of that but I think if you supply a rebel group with a surface to air missile capable of taking out a passenger plane, you share some of the blame when it is misused.
imacca:
I was surprised that Abbott announced today there’d be a memorial service for families of those who died in 2 week’s time. Two weeks seems too soon, esp when investigators can’t even get to the site, much less the bodies being repatriated home.
CTar1@156
It would indeed be a tall order to remove all pieces of the SAM from the wreckage and its proximity which is an area of many square kilometres.
According to reports, the missile would not have actually hit the aircraft but exploded near it, spraying shards of metal through it.
I wouldn’t have thought those shards would disclose much. It would be things like the guidance system that would have gone through upgrades.
What are the chances of seeing the last Neilsen poll tonight?
I just noticed that the Labor guy who won the Stafford by-election is Dr Anthony Lynham.
I know him quite well from running facial fracture courses for registrars. He’s extremely well-meaning and earnest, which means he probably won’t do well as a politician.
poroti@166
The US should take a back seat on this one. IIRC there were no US citizens on the flight, it was not a US airline, there is no direct US connection with this.
The Dutch, Malaysians, Germans, Australia and others who lost citizens should be working together on this. I mention Germany not because they suffered particularly heavy losses, but because they have a leader capable of communicating with Putin, something ours can’t do.
The US should confine itself to supplying any information they can.
[ and I suspect this is highly unlikely, but hasn’t been disproven yet to my satisfaction) Ukrainian government forces who thought it was a Russian military aircraft. ]
There has been a bit on the net about the US Space-Based Infrared System (Sbirs) and how its possible it may have seen the missile. That will give them the launch location, IF they have any relevant data.
Since it appears there were warnings issued about the airspace in the preceding days, AND the fact that there were nukes in Ukraine during the Soviet days (so the older DSP system would have covered Ukraine)its credible i think that the US may actually have data on this. Remains to be seen if they will say anything definitive as they may not want to confirm the capability to detect SAM’s in flight even though everybody seems to think its a given.
I still reckon it will come down to a vicious local d$ckwad committing a war crime rather than a State sanctioned action. Besides, its REALLY easy for Russia to defuse this. Just hand over the missile crew and commander to the International Court in the Hague for investigation.
@Peg/139
Not surprised, LNP are like the 1400 era in terms caring.
[ I wouldn’t have thought those shards would disclose much. It would be things like the guidance system that would have gone through upgrades. ]
The guidance system on the SA17 (and almost all SAM’s) is mounted ahead of the warhead and fuze sections. If it didn’t actually hit MH17 (and it may well have) it will have been travelling away from the explosion at greater than mach 1, and then it depends on what it eventually landed on as to how intact it is.
Think about the physics though? If its on the ground somewhere its miles away from the crash site.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/07/19/stafford-by-election-live/
Just looking at William’s chart and commentary, I think it’s worth observing…
If the statistical correlation has any predictive accuracy, then a swing of more than 20% away from the government at a by-election appears likely to be followed by a swing at a general election of around 10%, rather than 8.7% as stated.
That aside, the predictive strength of the correlation is not strong.
What does stand out is that by-election swings in the 20’s or more have been followed by swings of more than 15% at succeeding general election.
I suspect that if the data were corrected for the usual tendency of by-elections to register swings away from the Government (think of it as house bias), we would be able to see more clearly how very large swings in by-elections compare to swings at succeeding general elections.
On the face of it the LNP are in very grave trouble in Queensland.
[ Two weeks seems too soon, esp when investigators can’t even get to the site, much less the bodies being repatriated home. ]
Fess, i cant imagine why they are scheduling anything at the moment unless they are groping for anything to be seen to be doing something. 🙁
Abbott can try to make capital from this war crime. But the more inflated his rhetoric, the less effective he will also appear. He has very little leverage with Putin and none at all with the separatists. Rather than depicting strength, these events illustrate how ineffectual he really is.
“Abbott can try to make capital from this war crime.”
You are right to say he will not get very far. It’s still big news now but as time passes people will start thinking about their hip pockets again. The international web news sites I’ve seen this morning barely mention Australia, let alone Tony Abbot. Internationally he is ignored.
[I lost track of the number of times (but it was certainly more than 20 occasions) when I rang various media outlets or wrote to them complaining about their partisan use of ‘tax’ only to be told that Gillard was happy to have it so described.]
I had the same experience with their ABC, but it is an intellectually lazy excuse for rubbish journalism.
[….Team Abbott will be all over MH17 as a way of attempting to get Abbott looking like a leader, something he hasn’t looked like for a long time now.]
Yesterday’s Sydney Telegraph had a two-page spread about MH17 with the large banner across the top wtte: “PM Abbott takes decisive action”.
Precisely how the journo spruiked for Abbott I have no idea because only glanced at this while sitting next to person reading the newspaper – – – – – needed to be exceptionally large print to be able to read it without my specs.
This epitomises how easily the next election will be won by Murdoch’s Leni Riefenstahl Memorial Hagiography Unit: chip by chip off the marble block until by the winter campaign of 2016 the noble figure of “Decisive Action PM Abbott” emerges like a glorious Aussie update of Michelangelo’s David. He would be modestly adorned with yellow budgie smugglers, of course, if depicted by that masterful political cartoon artist David Rowe. In case anyone missed the following column about award-winning Rowe last November:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/behind-the-lines-announce-david-rowe-as-cartoonist-of-the-year-20131129-2ygb1.html
And importantly, briefly, one doesn’t need to assume that this result on its own predicts the fall of the LNP regime in QLD to see the trouble it could cause. This dents the regime’s credibility amongst its supporters and especially amongst backbenchers who hitherto imagined having the LNP brand gave them much the better winning chances in each seat.
Now, a whole bunch of backbenchers who know the history of their seats and who were carried in on the landslide will imagine that Newman, rather than being the wind beneath their wings may be a millstone around their necks. Palmer is keen to disrupt Newman and some of his backbenchers may be thinking of defecting to Palmer, who can back them with cash. If they do, a whole bunch of rightwing populist criticism will be headed Newman’s way, and then the regime begins to look dysfunctional. Indeed, a Palmer push would amount effectively to an open questioning of the Liberal-National merger.
If that starts to be the narrative around the regime, then regardless of whether Chairman Newman is still at the helm, the regime will enter the next election in political disarray, and then that nearly 20% swing could become general, as backbenchers start trying to find ways of saving themselves rather than their party.
immacca
[he guidance system on the SA17 ]
The electronics on-board would have ‘refused’ a Sukoi target.
So the stories that the Ukarinan AF may have had some A/C out and around could be right.
So MH-17 could have been a ‘next best’.
What a f’ing mess.
Regarding the Stafford swing there are some factors to consider before accepting that as statewide or federal swing in QLD. First, Stafford is a traditional Labor seat where the LNP received a 14% swing in 2012 and was always going to swing back to Labor significantly once things returned to normal. Secondly the LNP member who resigned had personal support and there was a feeling Davies was treated harshly. Thirdly the Labor candidate has a strong following particularly amongst those involved in the medical profession. Finally it was a by-election and a chance for people to punish an arrogant government.
There will be many traditional Labor seats which will swing back to Labor heavily in 2015 however those swings may not be consistent across the state.
We may be heading to a hung parliament in 2015
Diogenes@173
Too pessimistic. Maybe the electorate is ready for such politicians?
bemused
Even if the electorate are, the parties certainly aren’t.
He only got there because another doctor couldn’t stomach what was happening to Health.
[Too pessimistic. Maybe the electorate is ready for such politicians?]
The electorate loves that kind of politician and almost always have, the issues is whether he likes his colleagues and the system enough to hack out it a few terms.
MH17 1, Asylum Seekers 0.
Re MH17:
The facts that seem to be agreed are:
* the plane was shot down
* the shooting down was deliberate, notwithstanding that the plane may have been mistakenly identified as a military target.
* to shoot down a commercial airliner flying at 10,000 metres at typical cruising speed requires serious military hardware and a highly trained / expert crew to accomplish
* the missile originated from within rebel-held territory.
* that international civil aviation authorities had indicated that the plane’s flight path and altitude were safe
It seems very likely that the following are true:
* the missile was fired by insurgents or the military personnel supporting them
* that the plane was mistaken for a Ukrainian military aircraft and viewed as a ‘legitimate’ target by those firing the missile
* the missile system and training must have been supplied by the armed forces of a major nation. It’s not something that local insurgents could have assembled. Had they stolen it, it is hard to see that insurgents could have operated it without training from a major military organisation.
The following are possible:
* the missile system and training were supplied by the Russians military and operated by either insurgents or the Russian military
* the missile system was captured from the Ukrainian military and operated by ex-Ukrainian military who had defected, Russian military or insurgents with training and support from the Russian military
* the missile system may have been operated by a ‘rogue’ commander or it may have been operated with the full knowledge of the relevant chain of command, including the Russian military.
The Australian Government is right to be demanding an immediate and thorough investigation to establish the facts and accountability, through the UN and other channels. It should be supporting the victims of families.
But there is enough uncertainty at this stage to make it premature to start laying blame.
Atticus:
Plus all the screaming tabloid front pages telling Putin to stay home.
I mean, really?
[184
Fran Barlow]
I agree, Fran. Right wing disaffection was the precursor for the by-election. This is most likely only going to intensify as the election approaches.
[186
davidwh]
I’m sure you’re right about the particular features of the seat. But just the same, it is a huge swing. All of Queensland will notice and be thinking whether they might follow suit.
Briefly I am in no doubt the next election will be ugly for the LNP.
davidwh@195
GOOD!
🙂
I think that mostly – barring a few obvious exceptions, *cough* Mordor *cough* – the Australian media are trying to play up Australia’s collective importance rather than Abbott’s, specifically. He’s just an obvious focal point as the PM.
So now Abbott is saying his daughters flew the MH17 route.
What a dick.. Thousands of people have flown that route, what makes his daughters special?
Ctar1.
[ The electronics on-board would have ‘refused’ a Sukoi target. ]
Not necessarily. Depends on the IFF settings on the day which will be different for Russian and Ukrainian aircraft . I have also seen an article that claims the BUK doesn’t have IFF capability unless linked to a wider battery network?
[ So the stories that the Ukarinan AF may have had some A/C out and around could be right. ]
Possible, even likely. Shooting down an aircraft flying that high (its obviously not a tactical threat ) without positive ID is still a crime though.
There is an argument that has been running for years regarding the usefulness of med / long range missiles in air combat, BVR. If you can’t get a visual confirmation of the targets nature and type, then how can you justify launching a missile at it?? The F14 carrying a sophisticated TV and IR camera setup was an attempt to get around this so it could use its Phoenix missiles.
Better electronics / emissions analysis have made BVR combat more viable in later years. However, in the MH17 context there would have been no IFF.
However, thinking about it now, could the BUK system (and remember, it appears whoever did this only had the mobile unit which can fight autonomously, not the whole battery system) have been able to pick up normal airliner transponder signals MH17 would have been emitting? Possibly not.
Whatever, a massive fwark up and crime. 🙁