Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers bayside Brisbane north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – together with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park east through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), although the margin was little affected.
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| Red and teal numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Labor and the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but it was otherwise usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won the seat and then consolidated her hold with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as Labor’s member in 1993, but was unseated together with all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues at the 1996 election.
Swan returned to parliament at the following election in 1998, when he accounted for a 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%), consistent with a trend in inner urban seats across the country. The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%. Labor’s dire polling throughout its second term in government, particularly in Queensland, led to grave fears about his capacity to retain the seat in 2013, but in the event Lilley provided the party with one of its pleasant election night surprises by swinging only 1.9%, enabling Swan to hang on with a margin of 1.3%.
Swan’s path to parliament began with a position as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to his former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to Treasury after the 2004 election defeat, and retained it in government despite suggestions Rudd had promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.
Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, a rivalry developed between Swan and Kevin Rudd with the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter forming part of the Right’s “old guard”. Swan was in the camp opposed Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s move against Beazley in December 2009, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and the three leadership crises which transpired in 2012 and 2013. As Rudd marshalled forces for his first push in February 2012, Swan spoke of his “dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues”. When Rudd finally succeeded in toppling Gillard in June 2013, Swan immediately resigned as deputy leader and Treasurer. Unlike many of his colleagues he resolved to continue his career in parliament, which he has continued to do in opposition on the back bench.
as a teenager I was an in-demand babysitter. I understand some mothers prefer mothers and grandmothers but I was alert, rested and the kids were happy to play with me.
[confessions
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:03 am | PERMALINK
victoria:
Maybe zoomster’s right: the media will use MH17 to rehabilitate Abbott.]
Let’s be clear on this. Are we saying that a plain crash and a few crocodile tears from a PM who is seen by most as a snake oil salesman, will turn people’s attention away from the fact that he is kicking shit out of them with his unfair budget? Are we also saying that it is possible to turn Abbott into a some kind of statesman?
On both counts I think it is a bit of a stretch, though I have no doubt that his minders will do everything they can to polish the turd.
rossmcg
High quality nannies come with a cost. But i doubt this is what the govt has in mind.
The idea turns my stomach as well
Billie
Babysitting is a world away from nannies
All that tough talk from Abbott is working a treat
http://www.theage.com.au/world/russia-destroying-evidence-at-mh17-crash-site-ukraine-20140720-zuxqm.html
Darn
didn’t the planes flying into the World Trade Center rescue Bush jnr?
didn’t ‘children overboard’ rescue Howard’s electoral hopes?
didn’t ‘the little children are sacred’ keep Howards electoral hopes alive?
Yep, the dark side thrives on disaster porn
Darn:
The efforts by Team Abbott to make him look statesmanlike was in full swing in his Insiders interview this morning.
Qld councils which were quick to pass on the carbon tax to ratepayers were now baulking at handing the money back.
In 2012-13 Brisbane City Council said the tax was responsible for about $22 on the average bill; Ipswich City Council said it accounted for about $30 a year; and Redland City Council said it was a minimum of $17.50. This year, Gold Coast City Council said it was worth $14.60 on its bill.
Ipswich Mayor Paul Pisasale said his city’s rates would not be reduced this year as a result of the tax being scrapped, despite council’s costs coming down as a result.
Then we get to old “absorbing costs” excuse, we will be seeing a lot of this one. Woolies and Qantas have already pulled it out of the bag of tricks
a $17.50 hit to ratepayers from the carbon tax, Redland Mayor Karen Williams said her council had absorbed most of the extra costs for two years
I think it’s highly likely that participants at the AIDS Conference are not threatened by homosexuals (gay men especially).
I suspect that the participants would be likely to support same sex marriage.
This morning I heard on ABC RN that the Australian PM will go to Melbourne today, after Holy Mass at St Marys Cathedral in Sydney …… a special Mass for the MH17 victims.
Really, why would the Conference delegates want to hear from a guy who is threatened by gays and against same sex marriage ……these are core values and attitudes for our PM and probably totally at odds with the delegates’ core views.
Well done Credlin ……. make political hay while the sun shines.
And here’s a message to those PBers ranting about other PBers “politicising” MH17.
Desist!
Our wonderful PM under the wisdom of his puppet meister are showing the way, shining the light, setting the crassness threshold. He has ordained the rules, the standards. Just as he did vis a vis wrecking conduct in the parliament.
Hopefully the Conference delegates saw and remember the footage of our Indigenous brothers and sisters sending a message to Howard when as a “Sorry” denier he attempted to address them at a conference, and follow suit.
Victoria I think babysitting and nannies can be pretty close, I have looked after kids for week long stretches.
Unfortunately there is no shortage of over qualified young graduates desperate for work willing to work as live-in nannies on peanut pay
@Billie/106
Did Howard have a disaster personal disapproval rating like howard at that time?
Did Howard have a currently crap budget which these days you cannot sell?
Zoid, perhaps abbots minders are hoping the electorate will overlook these 2 failings
billie
Baby sitting usually means a couple of hours here and there. Not long week stretches!
I agree that graduates would be willing to work as nannies for peanut pay, but it is not good policy if it is being funded by govt
If the govt has a real hankering to offer money for childcare, why not just put the money back into the sector instead of handing it to households?
confessions
The sector is underfunded as it is. It would be a sensible move
@Confessions/114
Then he cannot claim budget emergency?
I just hope Labor dont buy into this govt funding nanny crap
zoomster @ 38
has said it all. Everything else will be details.
Steve777
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 9:24 am | Permalink
Re Socrates @17: ABC News 24 report said it was the biggest swing in Qld since 1992
Apparently if replicated federally Coalition would be left with three MP,s
Hi all
I have watched the Australian media coverage and politician behaviour of the past few days with mild bemusement, with almost all involved failing to meet my low expectations.
This morning on Insiders I saw not only Gerard Henderson (no surprises there) but Phil Coorey and even Lenore Taylor agreeing that our PM’s ridiculous ranting and ravings of the past few days (with Shorten, to his discredit, chiming in) are generally a good thing and to be praised. So I feel obliged to give my take on it
And let me state at the outset that I am not a fan of Putin and am massively pre-US and pro-Israel, and would wish to distance myself entirely from the total garbage posted on here in recent days by some anti-US and/or Rudd- worshipping nutters (the coincidence being no surprise at all).
Here are the facts as I understand them.
1. The plane was most likely either shot down by Ukrainian Russian separatists who thought it was a Ukrainianmilitary plane or (and I suspect this is highly unlikely, but hasn’t been disproven yet to my satisfaction) Ukrainian government forces who thought it was a Russian military aircraft.
2. Another scenario would be that the people who shot it down actually knew it was a commercial passenger jet and wanted to kill innocent people to make some sort of a point. This seems almost certainly not the case.
3. Regardless of who shot it down, the plane (and apparently other passenger flights) was blithely flying over an active civil war in which both sides possess surface-to-air missiles, and where the anti-Ukraine side was known to have shot down several planes.
4. Given the unlikelihood of 2 and the certainty of 3, if it had been one of my family or friends on the plane, my anger would be directed almost entirely at whoever it was who chose the flight path (be that the airline or whichever authorities were involved). Those culprits, whoever they are, would seem to have done well to avoid much opprobrium up to now (certainly in Australia).
What we have seen over the past few days is a re-run of the outrage script post the Bali bombings, with Putin and Russia in the role of Osama and Al Qaida.
What is Russia supposed to have done? Support and arm insurgents in another country? Well f*** me dead: us folk who live in the West haven’t ever done anything like that have we? Not for the Mujahadeen or the Nicaraguan contras or the Libyan and Syrian opposition or – as private citizens, for the IRA or the PLO or Fretlin or whoever. Oh Lordy me no!
Putin is a big bully both internally and externally. But the situation in the Ukraine is fundamentally a civil war. He might be stirring it up, but he surely didn’t start it. Did Putin personally order the plane to be shot down? I don’t think so n
And for Australia to rant and rave at him now, and even threaten not to let him into the country to attend the G20 without definite evidence of what occurred, will achieve what exactly? It surely will hamper rather than help to get the bodies back.
To me, it’s “tabloid politics”: nothing to do with governing, and everything to do with public posturing. Shorten’s just as bad. And the media all stand up and applaud.
Meanwhile, I’m off quietly to vomit. Someone please wake me when it’s over.
Victoria, as there is an oversupply of teachers, nurses and qualified child care workers who are under 30 and looking for work they will be vulnerable to exploitation as live in nannies, if the government denies dole to under 30s. I bet nannies will be subsidised if they are hired through specifically set up nanny supply company.
Remember that Howard set child care rebates to advantage ABC Learning Centres who had Sally Atkinson on their board. Evidently their child care was as basic as permissible under the regulations
[confessions
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 10:39 am | PERMALINK
Darn:
The efforts by Team Abbott to make him look statesmanlike was in full swing in his Insiders interview this morning.]
What they try to do and what they achieve are two different things. If the government doesn’t achieve a significant bounce in the next couple of polls following this disaster and the repeal of the carbon tax, I think it is fair to say they are in very deep doo doo.
And even if they do show some temporary improvement they still have a widely unpopular budget to get through the senate – not to mention the mythical $550 that people will soon realise they are not getting after all. In the political game of cards the hip pocket nerve tends to trump everything else.
[Three myths about the Carbon Tax
Myth #1: It “didn’t actually help the environment”.
Evidence: It reduced emissions by about 5%.
https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2014-07/ccep1411.pdf
Myth #2: It was “a $550 hit to families’ cost of living.”
Evidence: The average household was better off. The price impact was half that expected; tax cuts and benefit increases were delivered in full.
http://www.australianbusinessjournal.com.au/economists-attribute-inflation-spike-to-carbon-tax/
Myth #3: It was “the world’s biggest carbon tax”
Evidence: Australia’s Carbon Tax was one of the lowest carbon prices in the OECD.
http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/taxation/taxing-energy-use_9789264183933-en#page14%5D
Excellent post Martin, and bears repeating: particularly as the LNP will likely run a CO2 price “lite” campaign against an ETS.
The ALP shouldnt just let it pass: basically everything Abbott says about the CO2 price is completely contradicted by the evidence.
meher baba
As i said earlier, the first and only priority of this govt now is to facilitate repatriation of the remains of those unfortunate people. Everything else is certainly posturing
Germany has the highest productivity, Korea has the worst hours:
http://www.fastcompany.com/3033142/the-future-of-work/how-the-average-american-work-week-compares-to-the-rest-of-the-world
billie
It is much more economical to fund childcare placements. The centres have to comply with heavy regulation as to supervision and the environment itself.
Homes come in all shapes and sizes with all sorts of hazards lurking. Why expend funds for one person to look after even only one child in the home.
Would the govt subsidise a teacher to home school students?
meher baba
From what i have gleaned from team Labor is that they basically give bi partisan support to whatever the govt do in these circumstances. It is hardly politicising it from team Labor’s pov
Darn, the general population will not notice they don’t have the mythical $550. As I said earlier, the Govt (and thereby the msm) will tell you that you already have it with the axing of the “toxic tax”. The discussion will move on to something else, and in 2016 it will be forgotten.
[Here are the facts as I understand them]
This has been Exactly my take on it….with the addition it the US that stoked this civil war.
One should remember all those who have died through the excuse ‘friendly fire’ by those with the equipment and trainig to know a whole lot better. ..but put other goals ahead of lives. But seemingly excused by many…because of who they are
While PMBO has been huffing and puffing about Russians ignoring him a real leader , Angela Merkel, has been getting down to business.
[
Merkel, Putin agree on international probe of MH17 crash
The two leaders, who spoke on the telephone, “agreed that an international, independent commission under the direction of ICAO (UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization) …….The two leaders also agreed that a contact group comprising Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE should meet “quickly” with the aim of reaching a ceasefire in the conflict between Kiev and the pro-Moscow rebels in eastern Ukraine]
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/merkel-putin-agree-on/1272472.html
Samuel Alexander of the Simplicity Institute has just published a new paper called ‘Disruptive Social ‘Innovation for a Low Carbon World,’ which critically reviews the social movements or social innovations most likely to change the world’s current trajectory acutely in the direction of a low carbon world. This paper was written with the support of the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, the Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab, and the CRC for Low Carbon Living.
The full paper is freely available here:
http://www.visionsandpathways.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Alexander_Disruptive-Innovation_290514.pdf
nappin
Here in Vic, we are dealing with increased prices for gas and electricity, car rego, and now new council rates have risen substantially. Meanwhile the job market is stagnant and there are no signs of improvement. This is what people are noticing
meher baba
Very well put.
For eg, my council rates have risen by more than $200 this year
Darn:
I have no idea whether their efforts will be effective or not, but you must surely agree that Team Abbott will be all over MH17 as a way of attempting to get Abbott looking like a leader, something he hasn’t looked like for a long time now.
If you didn’t watch Insiders this morning, try to view it online to see what zoomster was referring to about the media boosting Abbott.
nappin:
Mumble had this to say about the repeal, which to me is quite plausible:
[ So what happens now? On the ground, people being what they are, most will be convinced they themselves didn’t get anything like $550 worth of relief the government is stating will be the average. Many will claim they can’t see any difference at all.
Any business-person or consumer who hadn’t fully understood that the carbon price accounted for only a minority of their bills’ increases over the last five years will well and truly realise it by this time next year.
Probably the common sentiment in the electorate will be: is this all there is, is this what all the fuss was about?
And, perhaps, eventually, what are we going to do about climate change?
Because as you know “direct action” is really only favoured by people for whom it is the next-best thing after doing nothing about climate change.
No, it won’t be fun for Labor to take an ETS to the 2016 election. Again. No opposition enjoys having to explain a policy during a campaign when they’d rather just attack the government.
Tony Abbott will again warn of devastation and carnage, but Australians have been there and done that and this time no one will believe in hundred dollar roasts or Whyalla wipeouts.
And that would remind them of the negative Tony he has done his best to cast off since last September, the one who tears things down.
Having carried on so much of the “carbon tax” over the last three years, the government probably had no option but to go ahead with its repeal.
But it wasn’t necessarily wise to make such a song and dance about it. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/after_the_repeal/
I did not watch Liberal Agenda on Sky this morning but it certainly would not come as any surprise to find Christine Milne ferociously attacking Labor on climate change.
HELLO, Labor all but sold their arse to Milne with the introduction of her carbon tax. An introduction that has given us PM Abbott and has resulted in no longer any real action on global warming.
Milne – seriously deluded!
AussieAchmed@119
Then we need to try harder and go after them. 😀
zoidlord
jic u haven’t seen this:
[Victoria police will radically overhaul the way it deals with disabled victims of crime after a damning new report revealed complaints of assault and sexual violence are not being investigated.
The study found people with acquired brain injuries, visual and verbal impairments or mobility issues are routinely ignored or not taken seriously by police.
Conducted by the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission, the report, Beyond Doubt, also reveals endemic rates of unreported violence against the disabled in institutions.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/disabled-crime-victims-ignored-by-police-20140718-zujxr.html#ixzz37y2Rn6gF
Report to be launched tomorrow: http://www.humanrightscommission.vic.gov.au/index.php/our-projects-a-initiatives/experiences-of-people-with-disability-reporting-crime
confessions
As i said earlier, my latest bills are much larger than 12 months ago. I was quite surprised with my councl rate notice this week. I know that it is local govt, but that feeds into the meme of higher costs in every facet of our lives.
The fact that this govt want to make education, health, petrol extra more costly, will not be appreciated by the public, who are feeling impacted by price pressure
Insiders showed an interesting front page on its program this morning.
A burial with the Greens prominently in attendance. The head stone read “R.I.P. Carbon Tax”.
Hey, News Ltd, get your own material 😀
confessions
[Tony Abbott will again warn of devastation and carnage, but Australians have been there and done that and this time no one will believe in hundred dollar roasts or Whyalla wipeouts.]
Mumble is right. Abbott crying wolf wont work again
meher baba@120
I totally agree with your post, particularly the account of the known facts.
Far too much hyperbole about the whole sad business.
victoria:
Mumble is also right about Abbott making a song and dance about the $550. I can see the stories now about people who expected to see their bills decrease only to get a rude shock when they finally come.
[I don’t mark her as hard for that as many, Abbott would still have called it a tax and Newscorp and shockjock radio would have backed Abbott and criticised Gillard for wasting political energy over a fight on words … it was lose lose.]
How much better Gillard could have managed the politics of it I leave to the hindsight advantaged obsessives, but there was certainly no easy political win for her on this one, given the lay of the parliament and broader political landscape. All of the possible paths were rocky, to put it mildly.
[meher baba
Very well put.]
Aye. Good summary.
Fran Kelly asked Abbott whether he had made any contact with Putin in the last two days?
Of course not, Abbott would be too chicken. Putin would tell him to get stuffed!
confessions
I have been paying bills for years. They have always gone up, never down.
So Abbott has turned up for his foot rub on Insiders today i see. He seems to be pushing the “Evil Russians” line with Kelly ably assisting.
While the Russians certainly have some responsibility (they have pushed the unrest in the Ukraine consistently) the actual crime (authorizing the launch) was most likely committed by a local on the scene.
Abbott really needs to tone this down. Let the leaders with a more relevant interest (Obama, Merkel….) who are actually going to have to deal with the fallout from this and the whole Ukraine situation do the talking.
“Doing the Leadership job”?? These tools that call themselves jouros are actually approving his going hard on Russia?? Do they really think Russia is going to be actually inconvenienced by getting their G20 invitation pulled or just pissed off and looking for an economic retaliatory move??
There was never any hindsight from me!
I told them day 1. Keep away they’re bad news 😎
Victoria – I am a cynical bastard. I live in the Dawson electorate where the punters continue to vote in morons (LNP and ALP alike). I take some heart from this weekends Qld result, but still fear the negative campaign will work again for the Govt.