BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Rossmore@1848

    It was a similar pathetic farce last night … thankfully I heeded Bilbo’s advice and desisted from taking the bait.. So many people with a box of rocks for brains.

    Your behaviour was noted. 😐

  2. Putin has written to Abbott advising that the airline thing is an on-ground operational matter and that Australia may be told something about the on-ground operational matter or he may not, depending on whether the Russian Minister for On-Ground Truth Matters judges that divulging certain facts will, or will not, help BUK smugglers.

    Abbott has apparently sent a letter back to Putin agreeing that that is a perfectly reasonable way of dealing with issues affecting the life and death of human beings.

  3. What is need is a reality check

    Tony Abbott increases pressure on Russia as Julie Bishop heads for UN
    Australian prime minister says he wants justice for ‘dead and the living’ and a ‘full, comprehensive, impartial, international investigation’ into the atrocity.

    Putin or rebels say……

    Who the fuck is Abbott & who the fuck cares about the UN.

    That is the reality.

  4. [Carey Moore
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    I’d like to thank the few voices of reason who’ve filtered through this barrage of absolutely unsubstantiated drivel by the usual self-appointed armchair-experts-on-everything who make this place unbearable. It’s good to know there are still plenty of rational people on this site.]

    Comrade you add nothing when you post something that sounds censorious, intelligent and knowing which actually says absolutely nothing. You offer no substance and certainly no substantiation of your lack of substance.

    I suspect that you are only trying to muddy Putin’s Waters.

  5. Obama is taking a more measured approach towards Putin’s alleged culpability than Abbott:

    [President Obama on Friday condemned the missile attack that downed a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet over separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine as an “outrage of unspeakable proportions” but stopped short of blaming Russia directly for the tragedy…

    Obama may have tempered his condemnation of Moscow to avoid pushing Russian President Vladimir Putin, who already faces U.S. and European sanctions and deeper isolation, into a corner. U.S. and European leaders urged him pull back Russian forces and supplies, and to seek a negotiated settlement.]

    http://touch.latimes.com/#section/613/article/p2p-80845707/

  6. [Tony Abbott increases pressure on Russia]

    A lot of this debate escapes me, but I’m not sure i could conclude that Tony is putting any pressure on Russia, he maybe trying but whether Russia is good or evil or some mix of both I’m not sure they’ll give a toss what Tony thinks. Europe and the US maybe … Australia … lol

  7. When I was growing up, the population of my home town was little more than 300.

    When I hear of casualties round the 300-mark, I instantly think of my whole home town being dead. And I’m the only survivor. And I know how I’d feel.

    But that’s not the way it happens for us. The disasters we hear about are of Australians, couples, families even, but far-flung, and mostly unknown to us personally.

    Yet, I still put those 300 people in my home town, and I mourn their deaths. And I think about their loved ones and the loss they’ve suffered.

    And then I think about how I’d feel if I lived in Iraq/Afghanistan/Israel/Syria, and this was an everyday occurrence, and that probably most of my family would really be dead.

    And I wonder how I’d feel. I can’t think past despair.

    Despite MH17 we’re still very very lucky. We can even still yell and shout at each other, as a privilege, about our differences of opinion.

    And I want Australia kept that way.

  8. Abbott should file his request to Putin in the pigeon hole next to his “we (may )have found MH 370 ” letter pigeon hole.

  9. kezza and zoomster

    If they are newly-fledged researchers, I would agree they are replaceable, but if they are experienced oldsters, I’m with zoomster.

  10. [zoomster
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Council rep on the local footy club board, kezz.

    Clubperson of the Year for the round shaped ball one.]

    You’re such a sausage. You think council rep is prestige. It’s the job nobody wanted.

  11. Boerwar

    [Comrade you add nothing when you post something that sounds censorious, intelligent and knowing which actually says absolutely nothing. You offer no substance and certainly no substantiation of your lack of substance.]

    I would say exactly that about you!

  12. Darren Laver

    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    1806
    Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 5:09 pm | PERMALINK
    Hmmm… Saints 27; Dockers 1.
    Who put what in whose water?

    WTF? Doing a deblonay?? I don’t think we could give a flying f*ck about the “footie” this weekend, quite frankly. May all the teams lose and get perspective.

    and your outrage over the 300 killed in Gazza? The 150 dying or going to die due the ebola virus?

    The fact is that if we cannot spend our time mourning every death and tragedy in the world. We must continue to live our lives. I’m watching the footy, that does not mean I feel any less outraged or any less sympathy and empathy for the families

  13. Malaysia is culpable & this is utter rubbish…

    Malaysia Airlines, which has struggled to recover from the loss of MH370, said that in April the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) identified an area over the Crimean peninsula as risky.
    “At no point did MH17 fly into this area. At all times MH17 was in airspace approved by the ICAO,” the company said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-tragedy-malaysia-moves-swiftly-to-avoid-repeat-mistakes-20140719-zuqu1.html#ixzz37tw9CwQV

  14. lizzie

    How are you?

    Yes, I agree that experienced oldsters are to be honoured, but irreplaceable? No.

    Else we wouldn’t have ever evolved.

  15. Still no agreement on a security zone according to The Guardian

    [
    Sergei Kavtaradze, a senior official of the pro-Russian rebels’ self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said that despite discussions with Ukraine’s security service, no agreement had been reached on setting up a 20km security zone around the crash site.

    “There is no security zone. It is in a region near the front. There is military activity there,” he told Reuters. The head of Ukraine’s security service, Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, had earlier said the two sides had agreed a 20km security zone “so that Ukraine could fulfil the most important thing – identify the bodies hand them over to relatives.”

    A spokesman for the OSCE security watchdog, Michael Bociurkiw, said he was not aware of any agreement yet on the security zone, but this was “definitely one of the top issues”.
    ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/19/pro-russia-rebels-accused-of-cover-up-over-mh17-atrocity-live-updates

  16. 31% swing to the ALP from the first booth, a hospital, in the Stafford bye-election… Tiny booth but probably a good indication of what people think about the QLD LNPs health policies ….

  17. [MTBW
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Comrade you add nothing when you post something that sounds censorious, intelligent and knowing which actually says absolutely nothing. You offer no substance and certainly no substantiation of your lack of substance.

    I would say exactly that about you!]

    How very derivative of you.

  18. [zoomster
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:32 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza

    Snort. Now you’re really showing how ignorant you are…]

    You always do that when you’ve nothing to say to counteract or consolidate your position.

    So, double snort back, and no returns.

  19. Apparently there may be as few as seven AIDS conference attendees lost in the MH 17 downing.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/at-least-seven-delegates-headed-for-aids-conference-confirmed-dead-in-malaysia-flight-17-crash/article19675467/

    [The newspaper The Australian reported that 108 of the passengers on MH17 were delegates, though it did not provide a source for that precise information.

    But Chris Beyrer, incoming president of the International AIDS Society said that, to date, the group has been able to confirm that seven researchers and activists were aboard the ill-fated jet.

    He said that number may change in the coming days but that the number of conference delegates on board the ill-fated flight was surely “an order of magnitude smaller than what has been reported.” (Identification of the victims has been delayed by the refusal of Malaysia Airlines to make the flight manifest public until it is certain that family members of all on board have been notified.)]

    The Oz … Again, Murdochracy just can’t help itself.

  20. [MTBW
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Just saying it like it is.]

    You don’t have to apologise for being derivative.

  21. [Sainters ten goals up on the Dockers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]

    Could not care less – nothing is of less consequence in life than AFL “footie”.

    A big fat irrelevancy!

  22. kezza

    I have spent the afternoon trying to write an obituary for the local paper. Sifting through a lifetime to shake out 500 words is bloody difficult.

    Do you really think we’ve evolved? In management, the new brooms sweep in and take several years to realise that the old lot really did know what they were talking about and had tried the latest “new idea” years before. Goes in cycles, it seems.

  23. Darren Laver

    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

    Sainters ten goals up on the Dockers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Could not care less – nothing is of less consequence in life than AFL “footie”.

    A big fat irrelevancy!

    You upset no netball today?

  24. lizzie

    From the little I have read about your partner the distilling of his life to just 500 words would be damn near impossible.

  25. poroti

    Yes. It’s for the local paper so I’m trying to make it locally relevant, and that’s actually harder than a straight CV. But…I’d rather tackle it myself than have the journo mess it up.

  26. Bemused

    Re your comments about Debonley and bullies including the moderator aka owner of this site

    Agee 100% and will be leaving PB

    Am tired of the bullying and snide comments particularly from Bowe

  27. lizzie@1889

    poroti

    Yes. It’s for the local paper so I’m trying to make it locally relevant, and that’s actually harder than a straight CV. But…I’d rather tackle it myself than have the journo mess it up.

    Well you obviously can’t cover his whole life so can you focus on a few events that epitomise his life?

  28. Steven Grant Haby@1890

    Bemused

    Re your comments about Debonley and bullies including the moderator aka owner of this site

    Agee 100% and will be leaving PB

    Am tired of the bullying and snide comments particularly from Bowe

    I would urge you not to leave, but stick around.
    If you leave, it is a victory for the bullies.

    BTW, I don’t always agree with deblonay by any means. But he is entitled to respect and civility.

  29. The plane incident is taylor-made for Abbott. He does not actually have to do anything. He can treat it like a stunt and we all knows he stunts well. But it is one thing carving up a fish in the Sydney Fish Market. It is entirely another coming up against the big boys.

    Ms Bishop looked a bit more worried, and so she should. She promised that the bodies would be collected asap but appeared somewhat at a loss about how or when that might happen.

    The problem is that Deblonay’s little mates do not appear to be too concerned about the 300 bodies scattered across the landscape (and don’t they come across as boorish thugs when filmed doing their stuff?). And there is absolutely no stunt that Abbott can pull that will change that one little bit.

    Bishop is off to the UN to seek a binding UN Security Council resolution enforcing an international investigation.

    Good luck with that. Russia can veto anything they choose. And if the Russians don’t, the Chinese may well do so now that comrades Putin and Xi are such good mates.

    Ms Bishop reported that the Russian Foreign Minister was not available for a discussion with Ms Bishop. She knows, I believe, that she is pushing the merde uphill and probably also knows that all the unnecessarily aggressive verbiage from Abbott towards Putin and all the unnecessarily aggressive verbiage from herself towards China is now going to come home to roost.

    Bishop and Abbott are learning their umpteenth lesson in foreign affairs but they are a bit thick. It works like this: if you keeping sticking it to people they eventually get around to sticking it back to you.

    Meanwhile, Abbott has promised that the Australian taxpayers will fund relatives to travel to where the bodies are.

    This is a peculiar bit of stunt silliness. The bodies are, as of this very moment, scattered in a town, a huge wheatfield, some woods and a sunflower field. Apparently the plane was blown to pieces, suffered very rapid decompression and everyone not actually attached to a seat and a surviving bit of the plane, was launched into space.

    ATM, the area is not even contested: it is firmly under the control of the rebels.

  30. Steven Grant Haby

    Over the years I have found William to be a tolerant and sometimes humorous adjudicator. Please don’t go.

  31. lizzie@1895

    bemused

    Ummm.

    I had a rude response to do with grandmothers and eggs, but I’ll hold myself back.

    I understand and you are entitled to. You are probably a better writer than me but sometimes you can be too close to something.

    Best wishes with it. Not something I have ever had to do.

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