BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  3. Boerwar

    Saw part of Abbott and JBishop presser earlier. Ms Bishop does indeed appear to have the weight of the world on her shoulders. On the other hand, Abbott can barely articulate a sentence

  4. v
    Not only that but Bishop has had her tips dyed and her hair shows black roots which rather set off the blackish bags under her eyes.

  6. Boerwar@1898


    —

    The problem is that Deblonay’s little mates do not appear to be too concerned about the 300 bodies scattered across the landscape (and don’t they come across as boorish thugs when filmed doing their stuff?).
    —

    This is an absolutely outrageous statement in 2 respects.

    1. No-one there is a ‘little mate’ of deblonay.

    2. There has been video on the news of off duty coal miners and others going about the grim task of locating bodies and marking them all with a stick with a cloth on it. Some bodies are in sunflower fields with densely growing sunflowers 2M high. Every square meter must be searched.

    Bodies are scattered over a very wide area and last I heard there were 100 still missing.

  7. [lizzie
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:43 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza

    I have spent the afternoon trying to write an obituary for the local paper. Sifting through a lifetime to shake out 500 words is bloody difficult.

    Do you really think we’ve evolved? In management, the new brooms sweep in and take several years to realise that the old lot really did know what they were talking about and had tried the latest “new idea” years before. Goes in cycles, it seems]

    lizzie

    I recently rang my former brother-in-law for birth/death dates of his family – to put together for my son.

    He sent me a story he’d written about his family.

    It was fantastic. And only two A4 pages. It plumbed the depths and scaled the heights in less than 500 words. I was dumb-founded. How did he do it?

    On examination, after the first sentence he took the “I” out of it. So, it wasn’t his story, but his parents. And it’s so powerful.

    He even fitted in how he thought he was named after two British kings (Edward and Henry).

    Your husband/partner obviously achieved so much, but was also similarly humbled by his experience. That is, he couldn’t have done what he did without support – and a certain amount of selfishness.

    And it was your selfless-ness that contributed to his success.

    I realise you don’t want to say that in the obituary, but it’s true nonetheless.

    So, my advice?

    Write it from his point of view, then take the “I” out of it.

  11. kezza

    Thank you. I might try that.

    As you probably know, the trick in writing for publication is to check every cotton-picking thing, because there’s always some bright spark who can pick up an error. I’ve already read a few commentaries on his life that have errors, so I’m on my toes. 🙂 G’night.

  12. poroti@1910

    bemused

    One poor old lady had a body come through her kitchen ceiling. Horrible.

    I hadn’t heard that story, but I heard of people watching bodies raining down. Just ghastly and quite traumatic for those on the ground.

  13. [bemused
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar@1898

    —

    The problem is that Deblonay’s little mates do not appear to be too concerned about the 300 bodies scattered across the landscape (and don’t they come across as boorish thugs when filmed doing their stuff?).
    —

    This is an absolutely outrageous statement in 2 respects.

    1. No-one there is a ‘little mate’ of deblonay.]

    Doblonay’s little mates are outrageous all right.

    These are the exactly the people that Deblonay has posted dozens of post extolling as resisting the designs of the US and the Ukrainian fascists. Of course they are his mates. Deblonay is always ready to dish outrageous accusations out to everyone in sight. Now he is stuck with his very own band of murderous, thuggish bastards.

    [2. There has been video on the news of off duty coal miners and others going about the grim task of locating bodies and marking them all with a stick with a cloth on it. Some bodies are in sunflower fields with densely growing sunflowers 2M high. Every square meter must be searched.]

    They shot the plane down on Thursday. It is now Saturday evening and they have only now organised a search for bodies.

    This would have to be the only time that, using gunfire, armed thugs have prevented an air crash investigation team from investigating an air crash site. Deblonay must be proud of the ways in which his guys are protecting the Pravda.

    [Bodies are scattered over a very wide area and last I heard there were 100 still missing.]

    Two days after the crash in a well-populated area with good access. Great stuff, eh, Tovarisch?

  15. bemused

    Here is her story from a Reuters reporter on the scene. The bit I’ve selected is for those who are moaning about the bodies not being moved.

    [“There was a howling noise and everything started to rattle. Then objects started falling out of the sky,” the 65-year-old pensioner said in front of her grey-brick home.

    Still visibly shaken by her experience, Tipunova said: “The body’s still here because they told me to wait for experts to come and get it.”]
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/18/us-ukraine-crisis-bodies-idUSKBN0FN1JJ20140718

  16. [Steven Grant Haby
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:55 pm | PERMALINK
    Bemused

    Re your comments about Debonley and bullies including the moderator aka owner of this site

    Agee 100% and will be leaving PB

    Am tired of the bullying and snide comments particularly from Bowe]

    Oh, for Christ’s sake, harden the f**k up.

    If you’re going to fold at the first instance of being told you’re an idiot, then you’d better hone your argument.

    As for having bemused onside, aw gawd, that’s akin to having bowel looseness with ya. Nothing to write home about.

    .

  17. Over at the PB’s Stafford by-election blog there’s an LNP slaughter on for those who’d like to pop over and gloat.

  19. Thanks for your comments Bemused
    ____________
    there is a really hysterical tone in the statements of some here…of which Bore-war as usual is the most outrageous and I have no wish to engage him in debate…not that one can!
    I have become some object for his fury

  22. [Comrade you add nothing when you post something that sounds censorious, intelligent and knowing which actually says absolutely nothing. You offer no substance and certainly no substantiation of your lack of substance.

    I suspect that you are only trying to muddy Putin’s Waters.]

    Um. What?

  24. bemused Deblonay

    Wise move comrades, very, very wise.

    Keep your heads down until, in Deblonay’s very own words, the punters get distracted by the footie and all this ‘goes away’.

  25. Logged on to see Stafford results, really good, thought everyone would be celebrating, instead seems like a war has broken out

    Will come back later, hopefully things will have calmed down

  26. Re killing
    _____
    as well as the Malaysian plane tragedy ,there have been more than a hundred young kids killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza this week alone
    where’s the fury here?

    and I see some here who want to silence
    Tom Paine…and they see themselves as democrats ???

    almost as manical as Bore-War ,who clearly needs a Bex and Good Lie down

  27. Boerwar@1924

    bemused Deblonay

    Wise move comrades, very, very wise.

    Keep your heads down until, in Deblonay’s very own words, the punters get distracted by the footie and all this ‘goes away’.

    I am very tempted to say “piss off idiot”, but if I did, William would not be pleased. So I won’t say it.

  28. mari

    Deblonay, who posts thousands of posts on how nasty everyone is to Putin, has suddenly gone fairly quiet on the latest bout of murderous handiwork of his little mates. These guys are so baaaaaaaaaad, that even Deblonay does not want associate himself with them.

    I trust that all is well in bonnie scotland.

  29. kezza2

    Yeah, just a lazy 20%+ swing. Anthony Green noted that Newman’s electorate is right next door and has a mere 5.7% margin.

  30. [What William said about T.P. would be more appropriately said about Borewar.]

    His comments don’t particular mean much anymore. He has made the basic moderators error….and cannot be seen as a ‘moderator’.

  31. Tom Paine…… Your views re US in Ukraine,since they organised the coup there, has much support by some US writers I have read

    Indeed I will try to find a recent comment on the situation by Gorbachov along the same lines

  34. [deblonay
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 7:50 pm | Permalink

    Re killing
    _____
    as well as the Malaysian plane tragedy]

    That is not a ‘Malaysian plane tragedy’. It is mass murder by Putin’s people – your little mates.

    [ ,there have been more than a hundred young kids killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza this week alone
    where’s the fury here?]

    Good question, comrade, where is your fury at the mass murder of 300 passengers? The most you have been able to say is that it is ‘bad luck’.

    [and I see some here who want to silence
    Tom Paine…and they see themselves as democrats ???]

    Ah, so the reason that Putin is innocenti is because someone reckons that TP is a dope?

    [almost as manical as Bore-War]

    So, pal, do you rate Putin as 100% innocent of the mass murder of 300 people? It had absolutely nothing to do with him, right?

  35. [Tom Paine…… Your views re US in Ukraine,since they organised the coup there, has much support by some US writers I have read]

    There are 300 million people in America. Of course some of them are evil and/or stupid.

  38. [
    His comments don’t particular mean much anymore. He has made the basic moderators error….and cannot be seen as a ‘moderator’.
    ]

    If you think his comments don’t mean much, why the hell are you bothering to hang out on his blog.

  39. [Tom Paine…… Your views re US in Ukraine,since they organised the coup there, has much support by some US writers I have read]

    That’s a pretty fallacious argument. I can find much support by some US writers for creationism and geocentrism too. Doesn’t mean it’s true.

  41. How Murdoch treats American union workers:

    Brian Montopoli @BrianMontopoli · 16h

    Gotta tip my hat to the Fox bookers on landing what is basically their viewers’ cartoon image of a union worker:

  47. [AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 7:57 pm | PERMALINK
    2 Party Preferred (all booths): LNP 38.5 (-18.6) ALP 61.5 (+18.6)]

    How do you like them apples, Abbott?

  48. Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 51s
    #staffordvotes – There have been 3 double digit QLD by-election swing in last 20 years, 2 of them in last 6 months

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