BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. jules

    [Even if blowing a plane full of civilians out of the sky isn’t a crime against humanity, it could actually be claimed that wiping out all those immunologists is. Given the experience, talent and knowledge we (ie all of humanity) just had stolen from us.]

    Oh, puhleese.

    As if people really care about the expertise that’s been downed. We care about the people individually, and the loss to those who care about them.

    I doubt it could be proved that nobody else could take their place. Nobody’s omniscient.

    Sure, okay, those people were loved by some people, but they’re no different to the loss of a football team.

    And there’s been air disasters where whole sporting teams have been lost.

    And air travel always carries a risk even though it is quoted time and again that road travel is more risky.

    Let’s not get carried away.

  2. Well the wonderful Russian backed Ukrainian freedom fighters are firing warning shots at the international inspectors trying to inspect the disaster scene.

  3. [davidwh
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 5:03 pm | PERMALINK
    Well the wonderful Russian backed Ukrainian freedom fighters are firing warning shots at the international inspectors trying to inspect the disaster scene.]

    Link?

  4. Kezza

    [Sure, okay, those people were loved by some people, but they’re no different to the loss of a football team.]

    All humans start with a claim to life. We are all ethical equals in that sense. We should mourn the premature passing of anyone as a tragedy — even footballers.

    On the other hand, there’s no doubting that immunologists as a group contribute more to humanity than footballers and cost a lot more to train. In that narrow utilitarian sense, your observation is indefensible.

  5. [Well the wonderful Russian backed Ukrainian freedom fighters are firing warning shots at the international inspectors trying to inspect the disaster scene.]

    Murderous thugs supported by the criminal regime in Moscow.

    These people have no decency, I fear this black box will never be found. The investigation will be sabotaged by drunken mercenaries, wholly supported by Moscow.

    As I said the other night, this century will be like the last one — the Chinese will be least of our worries, Russia will reign once again as the enemy of freedom and the rule of law.

    I never thought I would say this, Reagan was right, it is an evil empire.

  6. Re MH17 – embarrassed, watching politicians climb over each other for some ‘ME’ time in front of the cameras…

  7. kezza

    If it was 100 delegates from the HIV conference, it would have had a big impact on HIV research but if it’s six as recently reported, it won’t.

  8. Kezza stop ranting and do your own research.

    Le Monde.fr is also reporting armed thugs firing into the air against the European inspectors.

  9. [1806
    Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 5:09 pm | PERMALINK
    Hmmm… Saints 27; Dockers 1.
    Who put what in whose water?
    ]

    WTF? Doing a deblonay?? I don’t think we could give a flying f*ck about the “footie” this weekend, quite frankly. May all the teams lose and get perspective.

  10. From that Zionist fascist mouthpiece, The Guardian.

    [A unit of heavily armed rebels blocked the 30-strong team from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), cordoning off a large part of the crash site. The inspectors retreated after an hour-long standoff, having been unable to gain access. They were sent on their way by warning shots fired by the rebel unit commander.]

  11. [I’m with SH-Y in her condemnation of the Govt re their floating prison ship.
    It’s inhumane.]

    My reading of this is that spurious High Court challenges are delaying this.

    They would have likely be well on their way back had their processing by the relevant authorities not been frustrated by yet another lawyers’ picnic.

    If these lawyers really want to help the disadvantaged and persecuted, why don’t they help out directly in the countries where the people actually need them, rather than those who seem to be able mobilise themselves towards Australia without issue.

  12. As with Israel’s actions some like to take the attitude that if you are not with us you are against us, if you don’t support Israel’s action then you are against Israel, if you don’t support US actions then you are a supporter of the other side.

    If you don’t support the US in Vietnam then you are a supporter of China and Nth Vietnam, if you don’t support various American instigated regimes changes then you are for these foreign despots.

    The problems in the Ukraine were 100% created and funded by the US, the killings that preceded the coup instigated by them and their partners, the whole thing planned and instigated by the US and has been its desire for more than a decade.

    Chaos in Ukraine makes the US happy, and if they are lucky they get control and their bases there. They have been trying to goad Russia into a war in the Ukraine. And no doubt a great many of these sepratists are ex-Russian military and funded and supplied by Russia, likewise the Ukraine-US govt supplied equipment and mercenaries by the US.

    The US fomented war and chaos in the Ukraine and all the deaths that follow by accident or purpose rest with them.

  13. The press and political reaction to this disaster is lacking all restraint. The telegraphs description of the crash scene is particularly shrill and graphic and the PMs description was not much better.There seems to be little respect for the victims or their loved ones by either party.

    This horrible situation doesnt give a licence to our press and parliamentarians to act like ancient avengers calling for an eye for an eye, because that just makes them as bad as the perpetrators of this obscenity.

  14. [The problems in the Ukraine were 100% created and funded by the US, the killings that preceded the coup instigated by them and their partners, the whole thing planned and instigated by the US and has been its desire for more than a decade.
    ]
    Utter rot.

    William, can Thomas Paine be moved on from this blog and perhaps be offered a role at Russia Today to spew his anti-Western anti-democratic bulldust?

  15. [the Chinese will be least of our worries, Russia will reign once again as the enemy of freedom and the rule of law.]

    Jesus, are you from 1950? With clap trap like that you have to be one of those young lib simpletons where things have to be black and white. Not with then an evil enemy.

    Well how many airliners has the US shot down – by accident – so they to must be a more evil empire you know, since it wasn’t some group they were supporting who accidentally stuffed up, no, the US military itself directly shooting them down.

    So in your 1950s world the US is the eviler empire.

  16. [Politicians and their media pick and choose their moments of ‘outrage’.]

    Sure, but if you don’t get outraged by 28 Australians being murdered, what does outrage you?

    Does it have to be your family or friends?

  17. TP

    [The problems in the Ukraine were 100% created and funded by the US]

    Exactmente.

    That airliner was shot down by US missiles on the direct orders of Obama. 100%.

  18. Darren Laver
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 5:12 pm

    [WTF? Doing a deblonay?? I don’t think we could give a flying f*ck about the “footie” this weekend, quite frankly. May all the teams lose and get perspective.]

    People die every day Darren Laver. Get used to it.
    Sometimes it’s not fair. Sometimes it’s bad luck.
    Life goes on. This ‘we’ business, quite frankly, lacks perspective.

  19. [Well how many airliners has the US shot down – by accident – so they to must be a more evil empire you know, since it wasn’t some group they were supporting who accidentally stuffed up, no, the US military itself directly shooting them down.]

    Even if we were to say that Reagan/Bush personally ordered the shooting down of that Iranian airliner, they have long since been removed from office.

    Putin and his murderous regime remain in power, without any signs of the Russian (or Ukrainian) people be able to ever rid themselves of them.

    Perhaps you should go to Moscow and see how wonderful the life is there then?

  20. Darren Laver

    I see it as 298 innocent humans slaughtered yesterday.

    How many innocent humans were slaughtered around the world the week before …? Were you outraged last week ?

  21. [Jesus, are you from 1950? ]

    No, it appears you are, playing the role of a European intellectual making apologies for the Stalin regime all in the name of supporting socialism.

  22. [People die every day Darren Laver. Get used to it.
    Sometimes it’s not fair. Sometimes it’s bad luck.]

    Charming.

    Don’t ever get a job as grief counsellor.

  23. [On the other hand, there’s no doubting that immunologists as a group contribute more to humanity than footballers and cost a lot more to train. In that narrow utilitarian sense, your observation is indefensible.]

    And it was in that narrow utilitarian sense, as you describe it.

    And really either every crime is a crime against humanity – don’t ask for who the bell tolls and all that – or the only sense we can define crimes aginst humanity is by ignoring everyone’s essential dignity and making measurements based on various values – scale, age of victims, genocidal nature od crimes, loss of knowledge, talent etc etc.

  24. boomy1@1825

    Darren Laver
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 5:12 pm

    WTF? Doing a deblonay?? I don’t think we could give a flying f*ck about the “footie” this weekend, quite frankly. May all the teams lose and get perspective.


    People die every day Darren Laver. Get used to it.
    Sometimes it’s not fair. Sometimes it’s bad luck.
    Life goes on. This ‘we’ business, quite frankly, lacks perspective.

    Goodness me, I don’t know how some here would have survived if they had lived through WWII when large scale death and destruction occurred every day.

    A sense of proportion please people.

    Yes, what happened was terrible. Yes, we need to see it investigated and the truth discovered. If possible the perpetrators need to be identified and punished.

    But we are not going to start WWIII over it.

  25. [William, can Thomas Paine be moved on from this blog and perhaps be offered a role at Russia Today to spew his anti-Western anti-democratic bulldust?]

    Notwithstanding that Thomas Paine is literally the most stupid human being I have ever encountered in my entire life, I don’t really consider it my role to enforce those sorts of judgements.

  26. [Fran Barlow
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 5:07 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza

    Sure, okay, those people were loved by some people, but they’re no different to the loss of a football team.

    All humans start with a claim to life. We are all ethical equals in that sense. We should mourn the premature passing of anyone as a tragedy — even footballers.]

    Yep, I agree with you.

    [On the other hand, there’s no doubting that immunologists as a group contribute more to humanity than footballers and cost a lot more to train. In that narrow utilitarian sense, your observation is indefensible.]

    Yeah, well, Fran, I don’t agree with you.

    Claim: Immunologists cost a lot more to train.

    How?
    Footballers cost a lot to train. From the beginning in childhood till they make it. And then the costs rise.

    Claim: Immunologists, as a group, contribute more to humanity.

    Do they? How?

    They’re sure winning the battle with anti-vaxxers on the rise.

    What footballers contribute to, especially at local level, is community.

    You, Fran, are confusing humanity with the overall general health of a community itself.

    Humanity begins at home.

  27. I simply do not understand the logic of some on here.

    People are dead resulting from a crime in the air and some of you are justifying that as normal!

    Lord help us and our society!

    Unbloody believable!

  28. I’d like to thank the few voices of reason who’ve filtered through this barrage of absolutely unsubstantiated drivel by the usual self-appointed armchair-experts-on-everything who make this place unbearable. It’s good to know there are still plenty of rational people on this site.

  29. Also, a big thank you to MTBW for the sobering reminder that people have died – people who did not choose to be involved in this conflict at all. Regardless of the politics behind it all, it is still tragic news and we should be respectful of that.

  30. [Darren Laver
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 5:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza stop ranting and do your own research.

    Le Monde.fr is also reporting armed thugs firing into the air against the European inspectors.]

    Yeah, Darren, you sound as if you have had a personal loss regarding MH17. If so, I offer my heartfelt condolences.

    And if you haven’t then I’m surprised by your fury.

    Because, I have never noted before your anger at the needless loss of life anywhere else on the bleeding planet.

    What makes this loss of life so special to you?

    Did you care about the bloke who lost his life laying a cement slab on a Boral site, where the CFMEU staked an OH&S workplace claim?

  31. Carey thank you!

    I am astounded by what I am reading on here.

    Let’s all have a debate about dead people and the suffering of their families.

    Shameful!

  32. Oh, come off it, kezza.

    You’re basically saying that if the Cooragamite West footy team is wiped out, it’s a bigger tragedy than losing the equivalent number of AIDS researchers.

    The AIDS researchers have the potential to benefit the world wide community – AIDS is still a big killer, particularly in Africa.

    Even the best local team only benefits a few thousand, if that.

  33. zoomster

    [You’re basically saying that if the Cooragamite West footy team is wiped out, it’s a bigger tragedy than losing the equivalent number of AIDS researchers.]

    No, I’m not, actually.

    I’m saying it’s a tragedy to those who know the people who’ve lost their lives.

    It’s not, though, a tragedy of knowledge, because there are always others with similar intellect and know-how to take the place of those who’ve met their demise.

  34. I was getting quite worried during the day that bludgers were going to war with each other, but I see now the thread has descended into farce.

    What a relief!

  35. kezza

    […because there are always others with similar intellect and know-how to take the place of those who’ve met their demise.]

    Well, for starters, no.

    It’s not ‘add water, instant scientist’.

    There might be people who have the potential, given a few years.

    It’s a bit like saying that it doesn’t matter if the local football team is wiped out, the Thirds are ready to step up and take their place.

  36. [It’s not, though, a tragedy of knowledge, because there are always others with similar intellect and know-how to take the place of those who’ve met their demise.]

    Can we really say that tho? Or is it just an assumption that is probably right most of the time, but unknowable in each specific case.

  37. It was a similar pathetic farce last night … thankfully I heeded Bilbo’s advice and desisted from taking the bait.. So many people with a box of rocks for brains.

  38. [The AIDS researchers have the potential to benefit the world wide community – AIDS is still a big killer, particularly in Africa.]

    Just this week, the headlines in Melbourne papers was about the increase in the incidence of AIDS-diagnosed folk.

    About to be a bigger killer in Victoria than elsewhere in Australia, because all the lessons of the earlier AIDS-awareness groups had been forgotten.

    I was part of that, back in the 80s. And I’m very proud of my contribution to AIDS-awareness, and its de-stigmatisation.

    Yet, yesterday, in British papers, the headlines were about the decrease in AIDS-diagnosed folk.

    What’s the truth?

    IF there is to be another AIDS epidemic in Australia because we’ve forgotten to keep our fingers on the pulse, then we need another ad campaign.

    IT’s fantastic that there’s new remedies available, but it doesn’t stop the transmission of the virus.

    We still need community education.

  39. [zoomster
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 6:00 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza

    …because there are always others with similar intellect and know-how to take the place of those who’ve met their demise.

    Well, for starters, no.

    It’s not ‘add water, instant scientist’.

    There might be people who have the potential, given a few years.

    It’s a bit like saying that it doesn’t matter if the local football team is wiped out, the Thirds are ready to step up and take their place.]

    You wouldn’t have a clue, zoomster.

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