BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 36 of 41
1 35 36 37 41
  1. As for the crew having of MH17 having some warning of the missile, I read that these things travel at Mach 4. I doubt they would have time for W, never mind WT or WTF.

  2. <i.modest claim of a $200 average annual saving on households’ electricity bills from repealing the carbon tax is likely to be a major overestimate.

    that $200 will be needed to fund Abbott’s Direct Action Carbon Reduction Fund and be soaked up with the cost of living increases due to Abbott’s increase in the fuel excise that he describes as a carbon tax on steroids

  3. I see that, in an effort to stoke the fires, The Australian refers to the destruction of MH17 as a ‘crime against humanity’.

    I demur.

    IMHO, forcing AGW down humanity’s throat is a crime against humanity.

    Another might be the bad behaviour by the spivs which gave us the GFC and its multitudinous horrific impacts on millions upon millions of people.

    The activities of Newscorp in dumbing down everything in sight, dispensing with the truth, and egging on the Tea Party would probably count as a crime against humanity.

    The combined activities of dozens of global and national institutions in protecting child abuse rackets involving the rape of tens upon tens of thousands of children. That probably counts as a crime against humanity.

    But downing a single plane and killing 300 people is a direct crime against 300 people and the plane’s owners.

    To describe that as ‘a crime against humanity’ is hyperbole.

  4. Bemused 1711
    __I agree with yout views _of the whole affair

    McGeoch in The Age looks at his finding yesterday of the chaotic and undisciplined activities of both Ukrainian troops and insurgents in Eastern Ukraine…some checkpoints manned by men on drugs or drunk..”high on something “he says

    I agree with your summation…and as for Peppy’s talent at writing fiction…sadly it’s “pulp fiction” and so silly as to be unable to find a publisher even in that low field

  5. Deblonay

    Tovarisch. We are in hard times.

    I feel so sorry for comrade Putin. He did nothing! Absolutely nothing! And now they are blaming him for something that DID NOT EVEN HAPPEN… um… in Russia.

    What is worse the reactionary scum are threatening to send Putin to Coventry, G20-wise. Such emotional cruelty! Such mental anguish!

    I am 100% certain that this is a Zionist plot cooked up in Jerusalem by Netanyahu and his Jewish Crime Gang of Counter Revolutionary Scum. Their plan was to pay some Ukrainian Revisionist Running Dog Drug-Crazed Alcoholics to PRETEND to be Strelkov and shoot down the plane and kill 300 people.

  6. [The Australian

    “To describe that as ‘a crime against humanity’ is hyperbole.”]

    Methinks the Rupert Daily is trying to distract from the vast chasms in its own moral credibility.

  7. imacca@1742

    The only thing I can think of that might have alerted them to something untoward is the collision avoidance technology I believe airliners have.


    I’m pretty sure that works on aircraft sharing transponder info. A standard airliner carries pretty much nothing that can detect something that doesn’t want to be detected or that isn’t screaming “here i am!!”.

    I defer to your knowledge. I had heard of it but really had no idea how it worked.

  8. Re G20
    ________
    for all Abbott/Bishop statements they don’t want to endenger the conference…it is achance for Abbott to strut(waddle)the stage
    I suspect that any debarring of a major member would require some action by the other members…is that likely??

    cetainly not from China….
    The BRICS earlier in the year warned Bishop agaist such a move,and the Chinese and some others would certainly stay away…a disaster for Abbott
    so I suspect the conference will go ahead
    If there are demonstration well that is another matter…a costly one…for the host country’s taxpayers to ensure the safety of delagates

    any failure to ensure safety would guarantee that Australia wouldn’t ever be considered again for any such event in the future..and would ony reflect badly on the Oz Govt…
    Abbott wouldn’t want that either

  9. Boerwar@1756

    Deblonay

    Tovarisch. We are in hard times.

    Their plan was to pay some Ukrainian Revisionist Running Dog Drug-Crazed Alcoholics to PRETEND to be Strelkov and shoot down the plane and kill 300 people.

    Dreamt up and written by an Australian Drug-Crazed alcoholic.

  10. bemused

    Tovarisch, when the Glorious Day comes and the Proletariat takes over the means of production under the semi-divine guidance of Comrade Putin you will, of course be one of the first to be invited to a Wall Party.

  11. deblonay
    “as for Peppy’s talent at writing fiction…sadly it’s “pulp fiction” and so silly as to be unable to find a publisher even in that low field”

    Deblonay it really makes no difference to me what you say. We all know that no amount of evidence will ever convince you or Bemused that the Russians are anything but saints. For months on PB you have been reprinting Putin’s propaganda points on the Ukraine. You are so much in love with Putin that it is impossible for you to be objective. You can keep pushing the pro-Putin crap but most people aren’t buying it.

  12. Sceptic 1705
    __________
    NATO warnings to Russia..it’s .troops engaged in Ukraine.,,,near the Russian border… Wow

    Congratulations … you have excelled even the most russophic armchair warriors on PB…and come up with a great reciepe for World War 111..and in the year of the Sarajevo anniversary…how clever

    PS and have your nucleur fallout shelter ready too

  13. LNP in Queensland by-election are apparently having to paint over some of their election posters and bunting due to lies.

  14. Peppy 7
    Most won’t buy your lame attampts at humour either with you invented Stalinist language
    stick yo your dubious fiction ,,, you have no talent for comedy..nor does Bore-war either

  15. peppy7@1765

    deblonay
    “as for Peppy’s talent at writing fiction…sadly it’s “pulp fiction” and so silly as to be unable to find a publisher even in that low field”

    Deblonay it really makes no difference to me what you say. We all know that no amount of evidence will ever convince you or Bemused that the Russians are anything but saints. For months on PB you have been reprinting Putin’s propaganda points on the Ukraine. You are so much in love with Putin that it is impossible for you to be objective. You can keep pushing the pro-Putin crap but most people aren’t buying it.

    I object to you verbaling me. I have never said anything of the sort and I don’t think deblonay has either.

    The Russians are certainly pushing an agenda and assisting the separatists.

    But that is a lot different to ordering or actually shooting down an airliner.

    What is happening in Eastern Ukraine is IMHO driven by 2 things:
    1. Unresolved issues surrounding national borders following the dissolution of the USSR. Borders that didn’t matter much within the USSR suddenly assumed importance and did not necessarily reflect reality on the ground.

    2. The Russians do not want NATO bases on their borders any more than the US would welcome Russian bases on its border.

    A lot of this was avoidable if the West, principally the US, really wanted to.

  16. confessions

    The gravitas of Comrade Putin is no laughing matter.

    When the Glorious Day of Freedom from the Neo-Tzarist Oppressor arrives, you will get invited to Deblonay’s Wall Party.

  17. [A lot of this was avoidable if the West, principally the US, really wanted to.]

    Absolutely spot on. It is time for the full truth to be aired. Obama ordered the airline to be shot down.

  18. Watching Aviation expert on the US Nightline program who has stated that 700 commercial aircraft each day fly over the route as taken by MH17

  19. Not sure if I heard correctly, but it appears that one Australian family who lost their parents on the MH370, have now lost relatives on this flight

  20. victoria:

    Some other expert yesterday was saying 300 per day. But either way it’s a lot of flights that travelled through without incident. Malaysian Airlines must be wondering what they did in a former life!

    Btw good win by the Blues last night. 🙂

  21. [guytaur
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    @SchneiderK: Russian government allegedly caught making some interesting changes to a Wikipedia entry about MH17 http://t.co/5tiLoAcwaK%5D

    Um… that would be the Zionists pretending to be the Russian Government.

  22. confessions

    I may have misheard, but as you say even 300 is numerous.

    Good win indeed. My OH tipped them to win. I did not get to watch the game as we had other commitments

  23. bemused
    “The Russians are certainly pushing an agenda and assisting the separatists.
    But that is a lot different to ordering or actually shooting down an airliner.”

    Now who is verbaling? Where did I ever say the Russians ordered the shooting down of an airliner?

  24. peppy7@1785

    bemused
    “The Russians are certainly pushing an agenda and assisting the separatists.
    But that is a lot different to ordering or actually shooting down an airliner.”

    Now who is verbaling? Where did I ever say the Russians ordered the shooting down of an airliner?

    You accused me of portraying the Russians as saints. I have not. Nor do I believe they were directly involved in shooting down the airliner.

  25. CCTV leading with a new trade deal for China and Argentina

    2nd Story is flight MH17.

    Special graphic with haunting images

  26. I see Bishop the younger is off to New York to urge the Security Council to do something or other.

    Isn’t this the same SC she attacked the previous Govt lobbying for?

  27. Rua

    Yeah it us cute of the Tories to be rushing off to the UN urging action.

    What would they say if somebody urged the UN to do something about their asylum seeker policy?

  28. that would be the Zionists pretending to be the Russian Government.

    it could be Russians pretending to be Zionists pretending to be Russians or it could be Abbott or his master of propaganda Morrison

  29. I am surprised a long air time coverage of the downed plane on Chinese World TV most of it from Australia’s point of view.

  30. [Centre
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 1:07 pm | PERMALINK
    I want to know WHY that plane was shot down?

    Someone has got some serious shit explaining to do!]

    Motive, means, opportunity.

    Why don’t you tighten your blue knot, centre, then you may understand why, when, and how.

  31. rossmcg @ 1790

    [What would they say if somebody urged the UN to do something about their asylum seeker policy?]

    I wish somebody would. I’d be prepared to suffer through some stiff sanctions if it helped drive the racists, xenophobes and just plain scum out of the public sphere.

    Sadly, I doubt it’ll ever happen. Too many vested interests who’d have an attack of the vapours at setting a precedent that might boomerang on them.

  32. [ruawake
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 4:05 pm | PERMALINK
    I see Bishop the younger is off to New York to urge the Security Council to do something or other.

    Isn’t this the same SC she attacked the previous Govt lobbying for?]

    Funny how the so-called “Liberal” party trashed talked Australia re gaining a position on the security council.

    Funny how the so-called “Liberal” party trashed talked Australia’s economy.

    Funny how funny it is seeing them being all so serious about our international obligations, when JHockey’s about to raid the remaining AUSAID $s because he can’t get his filthily unfair budget through.

    Funny how this government is determined to get us into another futile war to satisfy the demands of an out-of-control military industrial complex.

    Oh, what?

    That’s right. There’s no more money to be made with the US drawing-down from Afghanistan. The last hope.

    Let’s have another war.

    Let’s arm Ukraine.

    Let’s blame Russia, and arm its opposition.

    The Americans, not the pres, not the populace, but the war-mongering manufacturers of war materiel, want a war, any war, anything, anywhere, to make money.

    Fk them.

  33. [To describe that as ‘a crime against humanity’ is hyperbole.]

    Even if blowing a plane full of civilians out of the sky isn’t a crime against humanity, it could actually be claimed that wiping out all those immunologists is. Given the experience, talent and knowledge we (ie all of humanity) just had stolen from us.

Comments Page 36 of 41
1 35 36 37 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *