Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Little change in the latest Essential Research, with other polls reporting this week likewise bouncing around within the margin of error.

The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:

• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.

• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.

• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.

A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:

• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).

• Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.

• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

886 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. sceptic

    Fox Sports will not save him . There is a trend for sports to sell broadcasts direct to customers. The English RFU have already chopped Rupes out as a middle man for games at Twickenham .

  3. [sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, July 16, 2014 at 3:36 pm | PERMALINK
    Awwww. This is absolutely terrible!

    I feel so sorry for Lord Hockey of the Bellow.

    Mr Hockey claims that, as a result of the articles published on May 5, he has been “greatly injured, shunned and avoided and his reputation has been and will be brought into disrepute, odium, ridicule and contempt”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/fairfax-defends-treasurer-for-sale-articles-using-qualified-privilege-20140716-ztj2m.html#ixzz37bgVSIRM ]

    His poor wife and kids must be facing a torrid time at school and in the supermarket at the moment.

  11. The fascinating thing will be whether the SMH takes this to trial and cross-examines sweaty joe over the North Sydney Forum. So far as I’m aware, the Herald hasn’t apologised, which suggests they think they’re on firm ground. Will Joe blink

  12. From this
    comes this:

    [There are only two approved LMI providers in Australia: QBE LMI and Genworth. Both declined an interview.]

    You can’t short the housing market directly, but you can short the only two providers of LMI.

  13. Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 3m

    So they’re disbanding the one entity that holds #NBN to account on the same day as announcing the major review and Cost Benefit Analysis?

  15. Progressive count in Indonesian presidential election has Joko Widodo ahead with 52.9% and three-quarters of the vote tallied. This is in line with election day vote sampling by pollsters.

    Despite a few allegations of vote rigging, there has been a huge grassroots effort to monitor counting to ensure the vote is fair.

    A win by Jokowi is seen as a major boost to the economy.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-15/widodo-leads-indonesia-race-in-website-tally-of-official-vote.html

  16. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 2m

    The motion to disband the Senate #nbn committee has been deferred until tomorrow. Looks like the government might not have the votes yet.

  17. Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 1m

    So are the core CBA terms of reference: What is the direct & indirect value, in economic & social terms, of increased broadband speeds #NBN

    Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 30s

    If that’s the case then surely it’s designed to fail? No ubiquity/reliability? #NBN

  20. Mal Brough with steam coming out of his ears, has been stalking Dutton around the chamber, stomps off in disgust. Not happy campers.

  27. Rua

    Brough would no doubt be mightily annoyed that Dutton is in Cabinet while he languishes. That would tend to inflame any other differences they may have.

  29. Have a look at Palmer’s previous comments on the NBN. Like so many other people he’s been sold the ‘its spending not investment and we can’t afford it’ .line.

    Its time someone tapped him on the shoulder and whispered ‘do you know the Libs were lying on this too’

  30. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 3m

    Negative gearing stats: $459.6 billion housing $11.6 billion share margin lending Now that’s an imbalance Ping @BUSINESSricardo

  31. [The Abbott government is looking at new spending cuts and tweaking proposed policies to get around the Senate’s blocking of many key measures in the May budget.

    But as Treasurer Joe Hockey revealed his rethink, Prime Minister Tony Abbott responded to a Labor “scare campaign” by outlining some areas that will be quarantined from cuts.

    “If the Senate chooses to block savings initiatives, we need to look at other savings initiatives that may not require legislation,” Mr Hockey said on Wednesday.]

    http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/govt-rethinks-budget-amid-senate-block-20140716-3c19j.html

  33. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m

    Since 2007: ASX down 20% House prices up 30% Who’d be a mug and ‘invest’ in a house now when shares are so cheap (relatively)?

  35. Oh dear!

    What did Hockey have to say about chaff bags, ditching witches and others bitches?

    [Mr Hockey claims that, as a result of the articles published on May 5, he has been “greatly injured, shunned and avoided and his reputation has been and will be brought into disrepute, odium, ridicule and contempt”.]

  36. Poroti back @ 505

    Correct.

    Peak oil? There are oceans of it!

    Peal coal? There are mountains of it!

    Of course it suits the argument of the loony green left to make such claims to of course protect the environment at any cost.

  37. Hockey dropped one of his classic brain poops on AM this morning. Normally Abbott and Credlin would smother him by mid-day. Now he is Treasurer they can’t.

    Dear Joe.

    Please keep shooting your mouth off about the plan B you said you never had.

    Thanks ru.

  39. Centre

    The main point however is whether we are prepared to pay the price required to extract it. No use having a big oil field if people need to pay $10 a liter for their petrol to make it economically viable . As it becomes increasingly expensive to extract renewables become increasingly viable.

  40. ru

    Tony Burke was just on ABC radio Melbourne. Missed it, but saw this on twitter

    “If they think a threat…is going to get us to vote for things that are fundamentally wrong, I don’t feel threatened at all,” @Tony_Burke

  43. Centre

    Peak oil is real. It’s not about how much is left, it’s about the peak in PRODUCTION.

    You need to google EROI; Energy Return on Investment

    That will help you understand.

  47. guytaur

    What does the volume of resources have to do with what Science tells you what to do with it?

    Zoid

    Interest rates hold the key to the short term future direction of property/share prices 😎 😛

  48. I will be in Wangaratta next week and probably driving home through the Great Ocean Road. If anyone wants to meet up, just send me an email via the mods.

  49. Will someone who passes anywhere near Hockey please hit him on his fat head and explain that we need more revenue, not cuts to services. And that cutting staff from Tax Office is peak stupid.

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