The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.
Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.
UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.
UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,
Confessions
https://theconversation.com/does-abbott-have-the-carbon-curse-29127
This article is what preserves any shred of hope in me that Palmer is genuine about there needing to be action on CC, and that he is simply playing the long game. I realise that’s most likely foolish.
I thought good tactics in QT today.
Tell me, Mr Abbott, were your OTT scare tactics about the impact of the “Carbon tax” at stretch too far?
A: Yes. And Abbott is so stupid that he repeated his lies on the record.
Liking the 56.35 to 43.5 Morgan today (which I participated in).
http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Findings%20PDF/2014/July/5683-Fed-Vote-July-14-2014.pdf
JimmyDoyle:
I don’t trust anything Palmer says on AGW. I remain hopeful that Australia will once again have carbon pricing as its main GHG abatement program, but I’m not at all hopeful that it’ll happen in the life of this parliament.
For the moment I would assume that Palmer is having a bob each way.
Confessions, Agreed.
sproket@502
I don’t think Hansard is up for today’s QT but I recall Abbott confirmed $1000’s to go back to the farmers & that consumers could expect “substantial” savings.
Sprocket,
Yes they were good tactics. I hope they end up in campaign ads at the next election.
I can imagine the horror of Morrison if Angelina Jolie actually did visit one of his concentration camps and then reported on it. Her audience is huge.
International shame for Abbott’s policy of torture the boats people back.
I don’t think parties are allowed to use footage from parliament in advertising. But it shouldn’t matter as there is footage aplenty of Abbott out there in recent weeks telling everyone the carbon tax amounts to $550 per household, among other insinuations about electricity prices.
Now Palmer being such an experienced businessman may play the tactic of demanding something extra at the 11th hour knowing Abott would sell his arse once again in order to get the Carbon Tax repeal deal through. Knowing of course that Abbott would implode if it got blocked yet again.
I wanna buy tickets.
Confessions,
Good point, hence why Abbott is happy to say it in Parliament. No doubt there’d a lot more of Abbott’s trademark uhmming and ahhing if asked outside Parliament.
Here are the CPI rates for Australia over the last few years. Any impact that the carbon price has had is lost in the background noise (it came into effect 1/7/2012). No ‘unimaginable increases’. No wrecking balls or python squeeze or giant wombat devouring Whyalla:
http://www.rba.gov.au/inflation/measures-cpi.html
We should watch the CPI over the next 12 months. If Abbott is right there will be a sudden drop in 3Q14 of about 0.5% (allowing for a background rate of about 0.5%).
Mari re damage from anti-inflam drugs/medications
_________________________
Quite some time ago I suffered greatly from arthritis in both knees and was given painkillers(panedeine-forte) and an anti-inflam ,Oradis/Oruvail
The pain killers did work but a side effect is awful constipation,and one had to eat masses of bran etc
Then I had two major ops and both knees done for total Knee reconst…that worked marvellously and ny knees are fine…and no pain now
…but all that time I took the Orudis anri-inflam
Even after the 2 ops I continued to take the Orudis for arthritis in my feet…with good results and my doctor never demured
The Doctor retired and I went to another excellent young man who found I had some kidney problem..,.not major ,but in his mind after many years of daily anti-inflam I may have done some damange
So a few months ago he took me off them and I just take
Panadol osteo,which seems quite goodfor the foot pains
Remember that I had taken the Orudis for many years,and I don’t think they would cause damage on a short term basis
and they are effective if taken with a regular painkiller
… I also agree with Bemused’s comments on other items
The anti-inlams DO help with a short term problem as you appear to have now
My wife takes them if she has a short term pain,but not for too many weeks
Hope this helps
I assume the labor ads at the next election will be an endless montage of lies.
The Greens are like a force of nature in Parliament. All other parties and members know that they can count on 11 parliamentary Green votes for any bill which protects Australians from climate change. Rudd knew the CPRS was a sham, which is why he avoided Bob Brown and refused even to meet to shore up his numbers or build public momentum.
The Greens are all about the long game. Their actions and media presence have kept climate on the agenda for years, and the death of current policy will be the starting pistol for a new Australian campaign.
Tomorrow, if we become the first country in the world to repeal a strong, working pollution tax, we will have a gaping hole in our national policy just in time for the lead up to a global climate action frenzy. The Greens, more than twice as big as they were back in the CPRS days, are well placed to ride the tide and build on their legacy.
That’s my reading anyway. We’ll see what happens.
Thomas – You’re right. Someone like Clive always nips back to the table and steals one last joint of meat.
JimmyDoyle:
As we’ve established, not all electricity and gas providers make the exact cost of the carbon tax known on their bills. In WA Synergy customers can see exactly how much carbon tax they pay each bill, from the overall $ amount for that bill, down to the per unit price.
If your bill doesn’t have this information, then how will you know the cost of the carbon tax is no longer being applied to your bills?
I think this whole repeal business is just adding a huge layer of red tape for both businesses and regulators.
[International shame for Abbott’s policy of torture the boats people back.]
They will just vilify her as a pretty out of touch America superstar who feigns interest in refugees for popularity reasons. Or some such disgusting smear.
T
New rise in Gas Prices soon
___________
Rising gas prices …..there are indications of some major rise in the price of domestic gas very soon …these new costs to votsrs who will make them very angry…and no Carbon Tax to blame
Melbourne is said to be one of the most”gas depeendant “cities in the world
I am glad in a way that the tax it’s gone as the Govt will now be faced with explaining it’s own lying statements…and the whole debate can move on
…
Uggh.
Greens do themselves no favours by making claims like this.
I should be a naturally locked-in Greens voter over this issue, and I struggle to feel anything positive about the Greens at all, and it’s because of this kind of rhetoric.
mikehilliard,
[How does it work with Whyalla? Does it get “wiped in” now?]
‘Fraid not.
Unfortunately the good citizens will have to get used to the fact that Marshall Plans are gauche.
Confessions, my partner and I are with AGL and I believe someone somewhere said that a supply charge is essentially the “carbon tax”. That correct?
With the Greens, you know that after all is said and done, there is much more said than ever done.
Long game? Hysterical. Is that you’re excuse for being crap at the short-game and the medium-game?
Jackol, I too should be a natural Green voter (and was until 2009) but have been turned off by their behaviour over the CPRS.
Jackol, we have lots of talk of “the long game” from Labor supporters too :P.
My feeling is that people mostly just say whatever they think sounds good.
DisplayName, I hate the long game argument. Often it just comes across as an excuse for Labor to abandon it’s principlea stance in favour of whatever is politically expedient at the time i.e. refugees.
JimmyDoyle:
I don’t know. My gas and electricity suppliers list it as a carbon component.
There is no ‘long game’ when it comes to dealing with climate change. We don’t have time for one.
Fair mark!
https://twitter.com/AFL/status/488610628425109504/photo/1
Sprocket 503
[Liking the 56.35 to 43.5 Morgan today (which I participated in).]
Excellent effort!
How many times did you call them?
The Greens poling….
The recent polls in WA seem to replicate the recent by-election there when L:udlum did very well…he was of course a great candidate
Witht Greens at an all time high of nearly 17% and the ALP seeming stuck at an all time low in the upper 20ies,it is clear that it’s the ALP has the big problem
Having elected just the awful Bullock(who is actually just a DLP supporter,who actually said that he didn’t always vote Labor in the past…the ALP really has problems ,when toy contrast him with a candidate like Ludlam who turned out to be a start candidate
I think these matters deserve the attention of Labor supporters without worrying about the Greens,who by contrast seeem to be doing fine …but a vote in the upper-20ies in WA …that’s really bad
Zoomster
[I have no problem blaming the Liberals for the whole debacle]
Just as I have no problem settling the principal failing onto the ALP.
[ – but the point still stands, that if the Greens had voted for the CPRS at that point, we’d have one today, and it would be in no danger of being dismantled (and hopefully would have been further improved).]
Putting aside that this was not a scheme which could have abated emissions on any timeline of salience and that it depended almost entirely on the success of CC&S, there’s no reason for thinking that the scheme would not have been facing what the current CEF faces now. The ALP lost in September 2013 to a party that did RW populism even better than they did. This had virtually nothing to do with the nature of carbon pricing and everything to do with their deferral of carbon pricing, their resultant panicky thought bubble over RSPT, their perceived leadership dysfunction, their silly posturing over budget surpluses, their pandering on asylum seekers, their poor selling of the MPCCC process, especially allowing it to be called a tax*, and of course the determination of the Murdoch Press to allow no other issues to be salient.
None of these things has anything to do with our conduct over the CPRS of 2009.
* to the extent that some Greens also called the fixed price phase a tax, in public discussion, some blame attaches to us too.
deblonay
It isn’t the first time the Greens have polled highly in a State breakdown.
For example, they scored a couple of 17s in Victoria in Newspolls between the 2010 and 2013 elections – only to go backwards by 1% at the 2013 election.
State breakdowns – particularly at this stage of the cycle – aren’t an awesome portent of anything much.
Player 1
[You voted for the Greens? I thought you always voted informal.]
Read the passage. I chose the words ‘identify with’ and ‘support’ — not ‘vote for’. I do of course vite Green in NSW where we have OPV.
International shame for Abbott’s policy of torture the boats people back.
Angelina Jolie will get the full Murdoch symphony in Australia. Remember Cate Blanchette a couple of years ago? Maybe they’ll hack her phone to see if they can dig up anything.
532 Zoomsater
But the real evidence was the recent Senate poll in WA …which was very close to the recent opinion polls,both the Greens vote and the abysmal Labor vote…even allowing for the awful DLPer Labor put up last time sgainst a star like Ludlum…and latest polls seems to continue this trend
fran
and much of what you describe may not have happened had the CPRS gone through.
If it had: Rudd’s standing in the party and out of it would have been higher; Abbott would have been weakened in his first week of leadership; carbon pricing would, of course, not have been deferred; etc etc.
To dash off a series of reasons Labor lost as if they were a given, bound to happen no matter what, is lazy thinking – and you know that.
If the CPRS had gone through, it’s obvious that we’d be looking at a totally different scenario now. What that might be, neither of us knows…but one can say that a CPRS up and operating for a couple of years would be as hard to demolish as the GST has proven to be.
Steve 777
[For what it’s worth, probably not much, I think that trying to implement a CPRS via a grand centre Coalition of Labor and LNP was a good idea. ]
It was a terrible idea, because it was unnecessary. The ALP could have had a robust ETS in late middle 2009. Abbott was for rolling over. They chose not to have one so they could split the LNP and wedge us. They played it as a game and lost.
Sprocket
[I’m never wrong about anything Fran admits to a failing. Maybe the GRNs have a soft underbelly exposed?]
My party was wrong, but in this case, I wasn’t. Since you seem excited by the concept. I have admitted to being wrong in this place on a matter of policy in circumstances where I have acknowledged that the ALP was correct but I wonder if you can recall what it was?
[Angelina Jolie will get the full Murdoch symphony in Australia. Remember Cate Blanchette a couple of years ago?]
I remember the Murdoch tabloids going after Blanchette for having the audacity to put solar panels on her house. It was the most ridiculous and nonsensical campaign I’ve seen.
I think it’s pretty clear that our best long term ETS would have been if the bipartisan approach hadn’t been scuppered by Minchin et al. All the rest is fluff.
Just imagine the vituperation if Cate Blanchett also had a windmill!
zoom
After some thought, I think you’re incorrect that Labor should/need not have included the Greens in the negotiations for the original CPRS. Working to have as many people on side as possible would have covered more contingencies, such as the very one that occurred.
[Just imagine the vituperation if Cate Blanchett also had a windmill!]
I think she may have had a wind turbine on her house as well.
Rupert’s influence is on the nose in America. His demographic of old, Anglo small government right wingers is rapidly losing influence.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/14/gop-self-destruction-millennials-conservatives-backlash
We are a few years behind in Oz, but change is a coming….
Fran.
Anne Henderson (yes, Gerald’s) on The Drum compared Jacqui Lambie to Mrs Joe of Great Expectations.
Would you be good enough to explicate? I am unsure.
That’s some nice direct characterization to start us off, and everything that Joe does or says proves Pip’s point, like how he told Mrs. Joe to bring Pip to live with them:
“I said to her, ‘And bring the poor little child. God bless the poor little child,’ I said to your sister, ‘there’s room for him at the forge!'”
(7.3), or how he tells the grown-up gentlemanly Pip that “you and me was ever friends” (57.19), or how he pays off all of Pip’s debts and then sneaks away in the middle of the night so Pip won’t be ashamed of him.
http://www.shmoop.com/great-expectations/joe-gargery.html
Just quoting Jo and Rupert.
Confessions.
Ha di ha.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jul/13/rupert-murdoch-labors-nbn-was-ridiculous#start-of-comments
Jo as in Joe Hockey, that is.