Known prior to 1983 as Wilmot, Lyons covers what’s left over of Tasmania after the north-west coast (Braddon), north-east coast (Bass), central Hobart (Denison) and Hobart’s outskirts (Franklin) are ordered into natural communities of interest. It thus includes small towns on either side of Tasmania’s pronounced north-south divide, including New Norfolk outside Hobart and the southern outskirts of Launceston, along with fishing towns and tourist centres on the east coast and rural territory in between, together with a short stretch of the northern coast between Braddon and Bass at Port Sorell. According to the 2011 census, Lyons has the lowest proportion of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, along with the second lowest proportion of people who finished high school and the sixth lowest median family income. The Liberals gained the seat in 2013 on the back of the election’s biggest swing, which converted an existing Labor margin of 11.9% into a Liberal margin of 1.2%.
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| Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Wilmot was in conservative hands from 1901 to 1929, when it was won for Labor by the man whose name it now bears. Joseph Lyons had been Tasmania’s Premier until the defeat of his minority government in 1928, and upon entering federal parliament he assumed the position of Postmaster-General in the newly elected government of Jim Scullin. However, Lyons and his followers split from Labor in 1931 after a dispute over economic policy in response to the Depression. Joining with the opposition to become the leader of the new conservative United Australia Party, Lyons became Prime Minister after a landslide win at the election held the following December, retaining the position through two further election victories until his death in 1939.
Labor briefly resumed its hold on Wilmot after the by-election that followed Lyons’ death, but Allan Guy recovered it for the United Australia Party at the general election of 1940. It next changed hands at the 1946 election when Labor’s Gil Duthie unseated Guy against the trend of a national swing to the newly formed Liberal Party. Duthie went on to hold the seat for nearly three decades, until all five Tasmanian seats went from Labor to Liberal in 1975. The 9.9% swing that delivered the seat to Max Burr in 1975 was cemented by an 8.0% swing at the next election in 1977, and the Franklin dam issue ensured the entire state remained on side with the Liberals in 1983 and 1984. The realignment when Burr retired at the 1993 election, when the loss of Burr’s personal vote combined with the statewide backlash against John Hewson’s proposed goods and services tax delivered a decisive 5.6% swing to Labor.
Labor’s member for the next two decades was Dick Adams, a former state government minister who had lost his seat in 1982. Adams survived a swing in 1996 before piling 9.3% on to his margin in 1998, enough of a buffer to survive a small swing in 2001 and a large one in 2004, as northern Tasmania reacted against Labor forestry policies which Adams had bitterly opposed. Strong successive performances in 2007 and 2010 left Adams with what appeared to be a secure buffer, but this proved illusory in the face of a swing in 2013 that reached double figures in all but a handful of the electorate’s booths, and in several cases topped 20%. The victorious Liberal candidate was Eric Hutchinson, a wool marketer with Tasmanian agribusiness company Roberts Limited, who had also run in 2010.
Pardon my humour Just Me. I couldn’t resist the Just so pun.
I shoulda oughta turned the tap off properly and now the kitchen sink’s flooded. (not really)
BB
It sounds to me like they are trying to drive people to resignation rather than offering redundancies.
I trust OH is documenting everything, and I mean everything. Dates, times, places, who is present; verbatim record of comments r/t wtte, if possible. These should include descriptions of all management hints, directions, feedback, emails etc detailing management expectations and what OH reasonably did to try to meet those expectations.
If there is a workplace agreement and a code of conduct then every management communication should be assessed against the code of conduct.
Reasonable attempts by OH to respond with agility and dedication to all reasonable management requirements should be documented as well.
Reasonable attempts by OH to respond to issues raised by management should also be documented in detail.
In my experience all toxic managers expose themselves to counter attacks sooner or later. If this lot try to force OH out on the basis of spelling they are already well and truly in the soup, legally.
[Pardon my humour Just Me. I couldn’t resist the Just so pun.]
Np problem at all. Word play tickles my punny bone.
No problem…
Puff
If you had of remembered to turn it off, you wouldn’t of gotten wet. 😡
Journos frequently add the of (translated ‘have’) which means they are saying “If you had have remembered”. Irritating.
Tony Abbott on 1pm news in Sydney……..he is sick of the senate playing games on the Carbon Tax Repeal Bill
Pot/Kettle.
Greg Hunt will be sent in to calm the PUP Senators.
Poroti
Light correcton was all that was required.
One of ‘them’. whent on too be a Law Lord.
Now dots – she has done well.
Murdoch’s problem with Labor’s NBN was that it was a competing network to Foxtel. He wants the MTM because it adds broadband to all the places that don’t have Foxtel, that is it expands Foxtel’s reach into areas that were not commercialy viable for HCF. I think he is now worried that the CBA will clearly show that FTTP is what we should be doing.
Senior Liberal frontbencher Andrew Robb says the stalled carbon tax repeal is down to Labor, not the Palmer United Party.
The government has been at pains not to blame Clive Palmer for its failed attempt on Thursday to scrap the tax, which was derailed by a last-minute PUP amendment in the Senate.
The amendment is somehow down to Labor?
These idiots just keep showing what a useless bunch of twits they are
AA
So all the drama in the senate on Thursday with the PUP amendments etc was nothing but a dream
[ Fran Barlow
Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 12:58 pm | Permalink
Pardon my humour Just Me. I couldn’t resist the Just so pun.
]
—————————————————–
Does the name Pavlov ring a bell?
Indeed it does. Classic pun. 😉
Quasimodo rings a bell.
A pigeon pair ?
[Abbott here to ‘rescue country’, he tells LNP ]
.
[“My name is Kevin, I’m from Queensland and I’m here to help,” ]
poroti
Was it Thoreau who said something like:
‘Whenever I see somebody coming down the path to my front door with the intent of doing me good, I run out the back as fast as possible.’
[Senior Liberal frontbencher Andrew Robb says the stalled carbon tax repeal is down to Labor, not the Palmer United Party.
The government has been at pains not to blame Clive Palmer for its failed attempt on Thursday to scrap the tax, which was derailed by a last-minute PUP amendment in the Senate.]
Palmer’s grip on the govt’s balls is so tight it’s making the coalition see an alternate reality.
Regarding the so-called apostrophe wars, it’s my view that if English is your first and only language you really have a duty to be on top of that shit. The international students I teach are, it’s really not that difficult.
Take some pride in your mother tongue. 😉
[ confessions
Palmer’s grip on the govt’s balls is so tight it’s making the coalition see an alternate reality.
}
———————————————-
Can’t be Abbotts – Christine Milne has already told us the “he doesn’t have the balls to call a DD”
[ absolutetwaddle
Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 1:37 pm | Permalink
Regarding the so-called apostrophe wars, it’s my view that if English is your first and only language you really have a duty to be on top of that shit.
]
—————————————
Yep – its the difference between knowing your shit – and knowing you’re shit
BW,
[In my experience all toxic managers expose themselves to counter attacks sooner or later. If this lot try to force OH out on the basis of spelling they are already well and truly in the soup, legally.]
That applies to all pedants in general.
HI is still trying to decide whether to reject their disciplinary letter on the basis that – in the very section where it details that correct spelling and punctuation are essential – it has half a dozen primary school spelling and punctuation errors.
The angle would be to point out that she has been disciplined recently for signing documents with the mistakes of others included, and that she will therefore not be signing this one.
It’s a fit-up of course. They purport to be “requiring” her to sign her own employment death warrant, claiming it is in the Code Of Conduct that she do so. I have read the Code and it says no such thing whatsoever. No-one can force anyone else to sign a document, especially one so ridiculous and untrue. They just made up the “requirement” to sign as another way of humiliating her.
She made a few inconsequential spelling and typo mistakes in a dozen emails, compared to the literally thousands where there are no mistakes whatsoever. These few mistakes have been turned into “consistent, serious errors in official documents” (“official document” being defined as any email, note, letter or attachment – whether authored by HI or merely passing across her desk from somewhere else – no matter how trivial). The motto seems to be “Garbage in, perfection out.” It’s entrapment. I wouldn’t put it past them to have included the mistakes above just to trick her, or test her courage. It’s a pretty toxic environment.
I think you’re right about them fishing for resignations. Saves on redundancy payments.
badcat
[Can’t be Abbotts]
JG used them in her car to replace the pair of fluffy dice hanging from the rear view mirror.
How many countries have an 84 year old media mogul – a US citizen – controlling their Prime Minister and government?
From the article quoted earlier about Murdoch hating the NBN:
[The wide-ranging interview also covered Australia’s place in Asia, economic development, and Mr Murdoch’s sceptical approach to climate change.
“We can be the low energy country of the world … but we shouldn’t be building windmills and all that rubbish,” he said.]
Now we know where Hockey’s hatred of wind power comes from.
[“We can be the low energy country of the world … but we shouldn’t be building windmills and all that rubbish,” he said.]
Piss off, you malignant old git.
After Abbott blames Labor, now Hunt blames Palmer:
[The Federal Government says Clive Palmer’s Palmer United Party (PUP) will have to explain itself to voters if it does not help scrap the carbon tax this week…
Until now the Government has held back from publicly criticising Clive Palmer and his senators, but Environment Minister Greg Hunt has told Fairfax Radio it is time they met their election commitment.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-13/carbon-tax-repeal-greg-hunt-blames-clive-palmer-for-senate-delay/5592916
They still haven’t blamed the Greens – maybe tomorrow?
[ poroti
Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 1:52 pm | Permalink
badcat
Can’t be Abbotts
JG used them in her car to replace the pair of fluffy dice hanging from the rear view mirror.
]
————————————————-
I remember a line in Fawlty Towers that Basil did something wrong – that went something like :
” You know what happened last time then and what will happen if you do it again , Basil????
” Yes dear, but you have to sew them back on first ….”
Apparently the problem isn’t the PUP or Palmer, it’s the Labor Party.
Labor have stuck by the mandate that they promised the people voted for them.
Liberals can’t say the same. No matter how many weasel words.
@abcnews: .@CliveFPalmer will have voters to answer to if carbon tax is not scrapped, @GregHuntMP warns http://t.co/8XF2Zn4v4N #auspol
Mr Hunt is sounding well confident 👿
[@abcnews: .@CliveFPalmer will have voters to answer to if carbon tax is not scrapped, @GregHuntMP warns http://t.co/8XF2Zn4v4N #auspol]
Too late. That’s the line you should use *before* you try to pull one over on the crossbench.
From a strategic perspective, Abbott’s line about Senate ‘argy-bargy’ was probably the right one. In the end the CT will be repealed and the memory of last week’s embarrassing delay will be buried in a deluge of Murdoch-fuelled triumphalism.
citizen
They need a bloody big mirror!
guytaur
“Mr Hunt is sounding well confident”
Why shouldn’t he be? Palmer still wants the CT gone and all indications are he’ll be happy to fulfil the government’s main aim here, namely, the abolition of a price on carbon.
twaddle
Experience. They were confident last week.
We shall see.
As others have said, who knows how the other crossbenchers will vote on the PUP-amended bill? What is the business lobby’s take on the new regulations?
It was up to the government to present something that gets through the Senate, and last week they failed.
twaddle
They may not be too hubristic after they realise what is left after the removal of the carbon “tax”.
absolutetwaddle@718
I agree with that.
You seem to have had a different experience with international students to what I had.
A lot of those I encountered did not have a sufficient grasp of English to be enrolled in their courses but the university had still enrolled them and taken their money. It was a disgrace.
Just continuing on the renewable energy theme, it seems that nearly 2GW of wind is under construction and due to come online on or before 2016* in the EG. That leaves a shortfall of less than 1GW to get to the theoretical 60% renewable capacity on the EG between 2016 and 2020, not including any new rooftop solar. Cheap as chips to do that.
* 1.977GW of wind scheduled by end 2016 including (Date TBA) Union Fenosa at Crookwell 2 (92MW) — right near that ex-MD of the ABC who tapped BOF on the shoulder to prevent wind development. Hmmm
Does anyone know – has a journo asked the question, “Tony, what ideas do you have for balancing the budget if this one doesn’t go through?”
All the interviews with Shorten that I have seen (not many) simply accuse Labor of causing trouble for Tony, as if the Libs are always right in whatever they do.
[728
guytaur
@abcnews: .@CliveFPalmer will have voters to answer to if carbon tax is not scrapped, @GregHuntMP warns http://t.co/8XF2Zn4v4N #auspol]
This suggests that Hunt is not confident PUP will vote for repeal. I suspect Hunt has good reasons to doubt the PUP will line up on the day. On a straight out political calculation, PUP have far more to gain by frustrating Abbott than by accommodating him.
The less effective the Government appears, the more they must expect their polling numbers to stagnate. In the end, voters need to know the Government can indeed govern. What we now have is a Government that cannot even tie its shoelaces unaided, let alone run the country. If things continue this way, the pressure will steadily mount on Abbott to go to a new election. This would be a perilous step for the LNP, but he may have little choice.
Of course for Palmer, a new election would open fresh opportunities. He would have much to gain and little to lose. A DD would offer Palmer the chance to improve his numbers in the Senate by keeping the focus of attention on PUP and by trying to situate himself as a voice of “hope”.
The strategic reasoning says Palmer will be tempted to rout Abbott yet again.
[Regarding the so-called apostrophe wars]
Desist, please. (Dickheads included.
So Coalition Party blaming Labor as normal, what else is new 😛
[@abcnews: .@CliveFPalmer will have voters to answer to if carbon tax is not scrapped, @GregHuntMP warns http://t.co/8XF2Zn4v4N #auspol]
Perhaps negotiations are not going quite so swimmingly as so confidently predicted?
Not that I wish to give Abbott any advice, but telling your negotiating opposite that you confidently expect a result by Monday – without any comeback or capacity for retribution if it doesn’t happen – is about as dumb (to use William’s phrase) as a box of hammers.
To say this when you have made the same incorrect prediction for the last FOUR sitting days is even dumber.
[Of course for Palmer, a new election would open fresh opportunities. He would have much to gain and little to lose.]
Palmer has 3 members from a half-Senate election. At the next half-Senate election, or at an outright Double Dissolution, he may gain an extra 3.
Six PUPOs is quite a littler. Palmer is only at the half-way point as far as disruptive potential is concerned.
Mr Palmer’s advisor
“@TonyHWindsor: Senate needs time out on climate decision. Community confused about various claims . Should review claims and real impacts on consumers”
“My name is Kevin, I’m from Queensland and I’m here to help,”]
Indeed, saving thousands of families from ruin and suffering might mean nothing to some but is more than nothing. Saving Australia from recession probably the most important thing Rudd and Labor did in those two terms.
Australia would otherwise be looking quite different now.
BB – OPC’s DMS must be hard at work.
If Hunt and Abbott think that putting pressure on Clive via the media might work then they will learn it does the opposite. Fools they are.
guytaur
This is even more interesting from Tony windsor
[Clive Palmer has uncovered some of the myths that were perpetrated on Aust people on climate debate .Need Independent or Senate Inquiry]
Woops – a little to much abbreviation.
OPC = Office of Parliamentary Counsel (writing the Acts);
DMS = Document Management System.