BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The publication of Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates have caused a few adjustments at state level, but it’s otherwise a very quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. [Of course it doesn’t matter who moves it in the House …]

    At the margins it does, Abbott cannot blame Clive if Hunt moves the amendments, he is also the bad guy for lionhead and day.

  2. psyclaw@1099


    If the repeal is not done quick, it may never pass, because IMHO Clive himself is turning greener and greener everyday. Whether his team is I don’t know. But they sure have little goodwill for the Abbotteers, and getting less and less each day.

    Maybe Clive intends getting out of coal and into renewables?

  3. Abbott needs to repeal the CT next week or it will be almost Sept until the next repeal chance.

    Back dating the repeal date to 1 July (in Sept) will be incredibly expensive for Abbott. He will have to buy back free permits.

  4. Hunt is making a mess of this, project, too.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/11/great-barrier-reef-impact-from-dredging-could-cost-as-much-as-1bn

    See any similarity to the Carbon Tax repeal here?
    [Jeremy Tager, a campaigner at North Queensland Conservation Council, which obtained the documents, said the $2m cited by NQBP is “not nearly enough” to ensure water quality is improved.

    “No one has figured out how this will work, or the cost of it, or how to measure it,” he said. “It’s all up in the air. Offsets are problematic anyway, due to the failure to monitor and oversee them.

    “The worry is that the federal government will have to come in and pay for any shortfall with taxpayer money. There is nothing in the approval that states the proponent must pay. The government needs to come out and say that no public funds will be used for these offsets.”]

  5. Bemused

    Thank you for your link re privatisation at post 1092. It made my day.

    It seems that finally we have convincing evidence that Thatcherism and its American spin-off, Reaganism, have failed. Hallelujah!

  6. Bemused Comrade

    Probly take a brave or silly person to punt on what Clive might do …. we can only sit back and watch his behavioural and attitudinal trend line progress each day, and as far as it goes so far it brings a smile to my face.

    It is said that he actually has never produced coal and like Tinkler deals in coal rights, options, set-ups etc ….. speculation rather than production, so coal per se might just be his investment vehicle.

    But to my observation he is becoming an advocate for managing AGW. Maybe there’s a hint there for some future investment potential ….. perhaps Clives Big Wind and Solar Farm franchises all over the place.

  7. Darn@1105

    Bemused

    Thank you for your link re privatisation at post 1092. It made my day.

    It seems that finally we have convincing evidence that Thatcherism and its American spin-off, Reaganism, have failed. Hallelujah!

    Well, I’m glad you liked it.

    Over the years John Quiggin has written quite a lot of good stuff on it. So has Kenneth Davidson.

  8. [Palmer is insisting the Government caves in to his requirements, I wonder if Day and Lionhead will vote against The Government’s amendments when the bills return. Peel off another Senator and it is blocked either way. ]

    It is the most exquisite of Catch22s. It would be worth one of X or Madigan to vote against the PUP enhanced Carbon Tax repeal Bill with its onerous red tape, and have it fail.

    The subsequent presser with Greg Hunt and Abtez would be a hoot.

  9. psyclaw@1106

    Bemused Comrade

    Probly take a brave or silly person to punt on what Clive might do …. we can only sit back and watch his behavioural and attitudinal trend line progress each day, and as far as it goes so far it brings a smile to my face.

    It is said that he actually has never produced coal and like Tinkler deals in coal rights, options, set-ups etc ….. speculation rather than production, so coal per se might just be his investment vehicle.

    But to my observation he is becoming an advocate for managing AGW. Maybe there’s a hint there for some future investment potential ….. perhaps Clives Big Wind and Solar Farm franchises all over the place.

    Good to see you online comrade.

    I copped a bit of a blast from briefly this morning after making some comments following on from your little dust up with confessions. 😀

  10. Well, I took a day off today and went with HI and the grandkids to the Blue Mountains for lunch and a drive.

    We started out at Kirribilli, right underneath the Harbour Bridge (long story as to why). I had shown the boys Tony Abbott’s house (Kirribilli House) and we had a few minutes’ time to kill while waiting for HI to join us.

    So I decided to use the public lavatory in the park under the Bridge.

    It was an “EXA-LOO” installation.

    EXA-LOO is a talking toilet.

    When you walk in to it you are welcomed to the unit by an American voice that sound disturbingly like Mission Control.

    You are informed how to operate the unit, and then told you have 10 minutes to complete your visit.

    Then it played, What The World Needs Now (Is Love Sweet Love) in a characteristically “Muzak” arrangement, designed (I would have thought) to drive all but the most determined (or the most constipated) out of the EXA-LOO in well under the 10 minute timeline.

    As I was only there for a No. 1, I completed my allotted task in about 60 seconds. I pushed the left hand button for soap and the right hand button for water. Then I pushed the other button for “flush” and involuntarily stood back, as the flushing was of a force similar to what I always imagined the solid rocket propellants of the Space Shuttle to be like, further reinforcing the “Mission Control” atmosphere of the place. It was an impressive flush. Think “1-in-100 Year Hoover Dam Flood Gates”.

    I pushed the “Door Open” button and was ushered out with a thank you from the the American Voice.

    It only occurred to me afterwards that, in not spending 10 minutes in the EXA-LOO, I denied myself the full EXA-LOO Experience.

    What would have happened after 10 minutes? Would the sliding door have opened automatically, revealing me (if No. 2 had been the order of the day) sitting on the throne in full pants-around-the-ankles splendour? Would I have a panoramic view of Sydney Harbours… and would Sydney Harbour have a panoramic view of me in my most vulnerable state?

    Then the thought struck me… what would the 9-minute warning be? Would it involve friendly advice to start in on the toilet paper part of the proceedings.

    Would there be a count-down?

    Wiould I hear a warning – a la Alien – along the lines of “This EXA-LOO will self destruct in TEN seconds!”.

    Would a siren sound?

    I’m going back tomorrow with my Go-Pro to record the full 10-minute experience.

    The boys want to come, too. All I said to them when I emerged (after a “Coward’s” 60 seconds) was, “You gotta try this toilet to believe it.”

    They were equally awe-struck.

    We have spent the entire day lamenting that there are not more EXA-LOOs, and wringing our hands over how the Toilet Experience for us now will never be as wonderful as it was under the guidance of the Talking Toilet.

    The younger boy, who has been known to spend an hour on the toilet when circumstances require it, was especially keen to test out the EXA-Loo’s full capabilities, to live the EXA-LOO Dream.

    We fantasised… what would the EXA-LOO trip be like if we were wearing a Dr. Ho’s Magic Belt, or if our food had been pre-digested and pulverized at “cellular level” by Nutri-Bullet? Would a course of Brazilian Butt Lift make any difference to the velocity of bowel movements?

    Anyone who tires of the paltry offerings of commercial digital TV will be familiar with these household names, part of the alternative universe of “Infomercial Digital TV” available to hungry viewers when all else fails on the Biggest Loser or National Nine News front (or after Leigh Sales returns to 7.30).

    We’ve taken to watching Infomercial TV, because no-one is ever sad on any of its programs. Butts are lifted Brazillianly. Dr. Ho is always there with his bicycle pump and his inflatable belt to cure your aching back (and if that doesn’t work, he has electrodes you stick to your neck to shock you into happiness). Stoneware will cook your food perfectly (without any greasy leftovers. The Nutri-Bullet will pulverize anything to its constituent atoms (the possibilities of being able to eat Nutri-Bulleted McDonald’s Cheeseburgers through a straw has been contemplated – a sort of “instant hit”).

    All of these products – according to their happy customers – change lives, instantly, and irreversibly.

    And if that’s not enough then Psychic TV is always there if you need advice on your future or from your dear departed loved ones. They are always watching over us, I’m told.

    And now we have EXA-LOO, the Talking Toilet, to flush away the remainder of Life’s Little Problems… neatly, soothingly, with friendly instructions all the way, and Musak from Buirt Baccarach to make us feel warm and cuddly as we “do it” into the scrupulously maintained EXA-bowl.

    EXA-LOO may only get all business-like and perhaps evem nasty after 10 minutes. But even that is a blessing, in a way… it sets up a sort of reassuring normality… that if you take more than 10-minutes, well, there’s something wrong with you.

    Will EXA-LOO suggest that I should see a doctor if “my problem persists” for more than the allotted time?

    I don’t know.

    But tomorrow, I’m going to find out.

    Wish me luck.

  11. 😀 Just heard the reporter asking Abbott about Gillard as he left the presser. Nice and loud so everyone could hear. Lovely.

  12. Abbott spent 3 years doing his utmost to make the 43red Parliament unworkable, so it’s great to see him getting some of his own back. His program for government has no merit and for the most part no mandate, so the more of it can be blocked the better. And his government can eventually face an electorate that will actually be aware of its plans.

  13. As for who moves the PUP amendments in the House, it has to be Greg Hunt. And he has to ram it through and get it up to the Senate post haste. And he has to get the amendments right over the weekend (hello OPC minions pushing the proverbial).

    Then the Senate has to give precedence, no off to Commitee, no acceptance of filibustering….

    And meanwhile, all the Senate time being eaten away by the predictable endless procedural motions and votes on every item not nailed down. This means the rest of the languishing budget measure enabling legislation (most of which is controversial) gets to be delayed even longer.

    This is high wire stuff. Abbott/Abetz should start praying that there is no exogenous variable next week.

  14. Clive produces Nickel, I think that’s about it.

    He owns coal and iron ore mining rights which he charges others royalties to mine. Bit like Lang Hancock.

  15. [Abbott spent 3 years doing his utmost to make the 43red Parliament unworkable, so it’s great to see him getting some of his own back. ]

    And great to hear him declaring the Senate shenanigans this week is just situation normal after how many years whingeing about the Gillard govt dysfunction.

    For a dysfunctional govt, Gillard’s govt sure achieved a heck of a lot despite being a minority govt.

  16. T.Paine

    It was painful to hear an ABC radio host carry on like a 2GB shock jock.

    The host was going for Palmer’s jugular making all sorts of ridiculous statements in an aggressive tone.

    So much so, Hunt almost sounded reasonable.

  17. This seems to explain why the Hunt is not fit for purpose.

    [Speaking on Adelaide radio on Friday, Hunt said supermarkets and airlines could be fined by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) if they did not remove a carbon tax impost from their prices when the tax is repealed.

    “The law is if a company had added the price of the carbon tax then they have to take it off, or the ACCC will come after them with $1.1m fines and that includes supermarkets, airlines, that includes landfill operators, not to mention electricity and gas,” he said.

    Norton Rose Fulbright partner Elisa de Wit said the statement was “erroneous”.

    “Companies such as ‘supermarkets, airlines … and landfill operators’ are presently under absolutely no legal obligation to take off ‘the price of carbon’ if and when the existing legislation is repealed,” she said. “They merely need to ensure that they do not engage in misleading or deceptive conduct, or make any false or misleading statements about their prices.”]

  18. I’m not sure Clive’s motives and I don’t know which way he’ll go on all fronts but a the moment I’m enjoying the discomfort he’s giving the Libs, Thursdays Senate Gave me real belly laughs.

    I’m sure Palmer is still interested in making money but he has a lots it and may figure that it is worth forgoing some to become a big player in politics.
    His ego may make him think that it’s better to be written in history as a mover and shaker than just another mining billionaire, If so watch out Abbot (thanks to who ever said A boot said he hate his name spelt with one t)

  19. BB

    had a similar experience in hospital, when I hopped onto the scales and they started talking to me – “Hello” “You weigh X kilograms”.

    The boys and I had a lot of fun wondering if you could reprogram it …

    “Ahh, geroff, fatty! Do you want to break me!”

    “Umm…I’m sure you have a great personality..”

  20. Clive produces nickel. He may be interested in renewable energy cos Nickel–iron batteries are being looked at for application in wind and solar power systems where battery weight is not important.

  21. BB

    Toowoomba has a fully automated loo in the centre of town.

    Loud elevator music to drown out possible sound effects which is playing continuously, automated toilet roll, auto hand wash, dryer, toilet flushes when you wash your hands but no time limits.

    It’s quite embarrassing when you exit as the music blasts out onto the street, bit like being on centre stage.

  22. [I’m not sure Clive’s motives and I don’t know which way he’ll go on all fronts]

    It’s his unpredictability that freaks me the hell out.

    Maybe he’s just trying to force Abbott’s hand on a DD. If so I think he’s wasting his time.

  23. BB

    Our village has a talking loo and the door has opened on many. Embarrassing to the tourists but loads of laughs for we local hicks.

    The darn thing cost $140, 000 during last days of Howard’s reign as a pressie from our Fed pollie.

    Enjoy your visit tomorrow

  24. too funny

    [Paul Syvret
    After Al Gore and John Hewson, who might @CliveFPalmer appear with next? @JulianBurnside ? Germaine Greer? #ClivesNextPresser]

  25. WarrenPeace

    [I’m sure Palmer is still interested in making money but he has a lots it and may figure that it is worth forgoing some to become a big player in politics.]
    He well may be. After hanging out with Al gore imagine the entrees that could give him if he does the “right” thing. He is very proud of his directorship of the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation in Boston. He’s been a long term donor to them.

  26. [Loud elevator music to drown out possible sound effects which is playing continuously, automated toilet roll, auto hand wash, dryer, toilet flushes when you wash your hands but no time limits.]

    Sounds like the same one. I forgot to mention the button for dispensing toilet paper.

    One of the boys tried it out. You “hold” (keep your finger on the button) for extra sheets.

    All depends on whether you’re a “scruncher” or a
    “folder” I suppose, how-much-you-use-wize.

    BH’s revelation that the door does actually open makes for an exciting experience tomorrow morning.

    I must make sure that I use… oh, it doesn’t matter.

  27. poroti:

    Last time Clive appeared in public with Turnbull Bolt’s and the Parrott’s heads collectively exploded!

  28. Buglar 1050
    My Niece had to raise money to buy WiFi equipment for her sons local primary school the hel a trivia night and an auction and raised a motza.
    Get the local sporting clubs etc. involved.

  29. This is good!

    Students from Rostrevor College have developed FB site called Not in our Name, re Asylum seekers. Other Catholic colleges are joining in. The two boys responsible for the effort play soccer on Friday night with kids at Inverbrackie, Woodside from which 11 kids have fled in fear.

    https://www.google.com.au/search?q=inverbrackie+children+flee&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb&gfe_rd=cr&ei=Cru_U9TtLM7C8gfn6ICACQ

    The Rostrevor boys spoke admiringly of the spirit and courage of the refugees, saying of themselves that they were privileged, that the refugees have faced so much. They are deeply moved in hearing their stories. Was on 7.30 SA tonight.

    https://www.facebook.com/welcometoaustralia/posts/679989132076449

  30. [It’s the thought of what a second dinner date in the current climate would do.]

    Clearly, an EXA-LOO would be appropriate.

  31. [987
    Boerwar

    Since Abbott is so big on Japanese ‘honour’ during World War Two, here is a list of people ‘honoured’ by the Yasukuni Shrine and hence by Abe.

    Hideki Tōjō, Seishirō Itagaki, Heitarō Kimura, Kenji Doihara, Akira Mutō, Kōki Hirota, Iwane Matsui, Yoshijirō Umezu, Kuniaki Koiso, Hiranuma Kiichirō, Toshio Shiratori, Shigenori Tōgō

    These were the big guys. Yasukuni honours more than one thousand other war criminals.

    Doihara’s ‘honour’ should appeal to Abbott. He was certainly highly skilled.]

    Doihara’s activity in China vastly exceeded the normal behaviour of an intelligence officer. As chief of the Japanese secret services in China he worked out, put in motion and oversaw a wide series of activities systematically exploiting the occupied areas and disrupting Chinese social structure in the rest of the country in order to weaken public resistance.

    To this end, he used every possible kind of action, including deliberately fueling criminality, fostering drug addiction, sponsoring terrorism, assassinations, blackmail, bribery, opium trafficking and racketeering, spreading every kind of corruption in the almost ungovernable country…

    After the occupation of Manchuria, under his supervision the Japanese secret service soon turned Machukuo into a vast criminal enterprise where rape, child molestation, sexual humiliation, sadism, assault and murder became institutionalized means of terrorizing and controlling Manchuria’s Chinese and Russian population. Robbery by soldiers and gendarmes, arbitrary confiscation of property and unabashed extortion became commonplace. Underground brothels, opium dens, gambling houses and narcotics shops run by Japanese gendarmes competed with the state monopoly syndicate of opium.

    Once again, Abbott has opened his mouth without thinking. The Chinese must know we have an absolute idiot purporting to run the place.

  32. Crikey Whitey

    Thanks for that heartening story re Catholic Colleges.

    Similar happened to make Rudd and Labor change Howard’s policy but once boats started reappearing all hell broke and look where we are today. I detest the space we’re now in re AS.

    Do we need Abbott, Jones, Bolt and their ilk to disappear before a solution is found. Add a few in Labor as well

  33. Re Poroti @1135: trouble is, both Clive and Malcolm want to be PM. They are both rich, the same age (both born in 1954), both have gigantic egos. An alliance would seem unlikely.

  34. briefly@1143



    Once again, Abbott has opened his mouth without thinking. The Chinese must know we have an absolute idiot purporting to run the place.

    Why stop with China?

    The world “must know we have an absolute idiot purporting to run the place”.

  35. [The government insists it agreed to all three versions of the PUP amendments. So why did the carbon tax repeal not sail through the Senate yesterday?

    First, the whole process was conducted in a mad rush. The government, keen to fast-track debate on the bills, set an 11.50am deadline for a vote. But when it became clear it was in trouble, it ended up trying to delay a vote as it negotiated with Clive Palmer outside the chamber.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/carbon-tax-chaos-where-the-governments-plan-went-wrong-20140711-3brzv.html#ixzz379hqIkNP

    Typical bully boy Abbott via ABetz, trying to impose their will upon the chamber and then rolling out that husked out shell Hunt to try to sheet blame to everyone else for their tactical error.

  36. Steve777

    [both have gigantic egos. An alliance would seem unlikely.]
    The giant egos could be the key to them working together. Each would think they have the better of the other.

  37. SET UP: Turnbull, Palmer, and Shorten do a joint press conference announcing they have the numbers to form a new national unity government, with a majority in both houses.

    PAY OFF: Cameras rolling on Abbott when he finds out.

    🙂

  38. 1146
    bemused

    Quite right…the whole world must be getting the picture by now.

    Even so, Abbott could hardly have chosen a topic more likely to raise the voltage in Beijing. Considering as well the provocations from Julie Bishop, one could be forgiven for thinking they are almost looking for a scrap with China.

    China and Australia have been on good terms with each other ever since Gough’s election, coming soon after his unheralded visit to China in 1971. Knowing how deeply Abbott hates everything Labor has accomplished, perhaps he also wants to sabotage our relations with China simply from his customary, insatiable spite.

    http://www.afr.com/p/lifestyle/review/whitlam_china_masterstroke_7rfoUh2Upmy0kZb9oyzJxN

    In any case, once again, Abbott has shown how out of step he is with contemporary opinion.

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