BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The publication of Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates have caused a few adjustments at state level, but it’s otherwise a very quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 22 of 25
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  2. Although Lizzie’s not around right now, I do recall using her husbands book to nurse some wildlife back to health by identifying the injured or stranded bird and calling Healesville sanctuary to ask what to do on several occasions when I was a child, the most memorable of which was a nest of Eastern Spinebills of which only one youngster had survived after a storm that destroyed the tree they claimed as their home. I hope once my time comes that I can claimed to have achieved a fraction of what Ken contributed to our understanding of the world and to society.

    Lizzie, if you see this, I hope you find solace that he found peace among the land and people he loved and wish you health and strength at this challenging time.

  4. A group of Labor MPs will develop a new party policy on the testing of cosmetics on animals.

    The party on Friday took the unusual measure of calling for public input on the issue, via submissions to its website.

    A European Union ban on the sale of cosmetics developed through animal testing took effect last year.

    In March, Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon introduced a private senator’s bill to Federal Parliament that would ban the importation of cosmetics tested on animals.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-seeks-public-views-on-potential-push-to-ban-cosmetics-tested-on-animals-20140711-3brno.html#ixzz378l0I2uq

    ALP website: http://www.alp.org.au/cosmeticstesting

  6. Victoria,

    I’m reserving my judgement of Setka. I’m not sure about him, but you do appear to be in a better position to judge. Like most, he undoubtedly has his moments and there is cause for him reaching the position he has. I certainly don’t support he open slather of accusations that don’t stack up being poured on him.

  8. Bugler

    As i have stated recently. Unfortunately there is corruption within the union and it is not good. But my view is that it takes two to tango

  10. Victoria 1057,

    Thank-you 🙂 Some of my HS friends have continuing association with the reptile room so this is devastating for them. Oscar, a blue-tongue lizard, was rescued by my sister and donated to the school, too.

    1058,

    Quite so, it’s just difficult for me to make an accurate judgement, as I have little association with the industry or people in it. Most tradies I know are actually sparkies or plumbers, and nearly all of them apprentices or employed in something not related to their training.

  16. Vic and Ru,

    Don’t feel guilted, I wouldn’t want anyone to be worse off on my part. It’s a big school, I’m sure the alumni community will get something together 🙂 Your support is a bonus and much appreciated 🙂

  17. [“Situation Normal” is the first two words of the military acronym SNAFU. The remainder being “, All F..d Up”.]

    caf

    I love that. It’s so apt 🙂

  18. Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 3m

    So I’ve got to move house (again). New place no Cable. No ADSL2+. NBN cancelled. It’s 2014 For Pity’s Sake.

  21. Pegasus

    I’m just catching up. Thank you for the verse. I read recently that Kendall is the “only Australian poet represented in The Oxford Book of English Verse (1921)” Bravo!

    Bugler

    Ken always intended his guides to be used by children and beginners rather than the experienced twitchers. 🙂

  22. First home buyers have no hope up against investors.

    [“Notably, the driver of lending has become more narrowly focussed, as investors buying established housing continue to lift to new record high levels (and also hit a near record 45.4 per cent share of total loans) – but other types of loans have effectively stalled, after they were also previously on uptrend trends.”

    First home buyers now make up 12.6 per cent of new owner-occupied lending, up from 12.3 per cent in April, but still around record lows.

    When the presence of investors is factored in, the housing finance figures suggest that first time buyers make up less than 8 per cent of real estate purchases at the moment.]

  24. Certainly, LU, if that sort of thing were what Abbott had in mind with ‘direct action’ I’d have far less trouble with it.

    It would still be inadequate but there would at least be a definite transition path. Of course, given that in some cases, the states are the owners of generating assets, you’d have to do a deal with the states, but in principle, this would be a reasonable start.

    Most gas comes in at about 550kgCO2e/MWhe and in practice with the rising price of gas and burgeoning supplies of wind and solar, by 2025 I suspect the Eastern Grid would be 60% and maybe 70% renewables by then. If V2G gets a toehold, maybe better yet.

  27. Rua #971

    Where the Senate may not amend a proposed law, it may request the House of Representatives to make specified amendments, and may withhold its agreement to the proposed law if the House of Representatives does not agree to its requests.

    The last bit is the important bit, the Govt could have allowed PUP to put its 3rd version amendment as a request to the HoR then PUP would agree if the request was agreed to.

    Why didn’t this occur? I smell a rat.

    Rua

    The only “rat” is the Abbotteers incompetence.

    1) The Abbotteers had set their own guillotine earlier in the day and ran out of time when things went wrong.

    2) The House wasn’t sitting so it was not possible for the Bill to go back there to be quickly amended

    3) The issue is that the bright sparks in charge, Abetz and Fiefield failed to recognise that the PUP amendment included a money aspect and therefore was challengeable in the HC as a breach of s53 therefore invalid (whilst it did contain the $ fine element if the refunds were not passed to consumers the HC may have ruled that it was not in fact a money bill, but nevertheless it was challangeable as a possibility).

    That Abetz and Fiefield didn’t see this is monumentally incompetent. Ditto the PM.

    Palmer has said for weeks that their agreement to the repeal depended on the fines for non refunding being specified in the Bill. He has been saying for weeks that he had no faith in ASIC and ACCC to enforce.

    So why didn’t Abbott, Pyne, Abetz and Fiefield ….. the House and Senate exec group ……. sit down with the PUPS, listen to them, have the amendment drawn, had it rechecked by the PUPs, identified it as a s53 money bill, ram it through the House, and have it ready to be rubber stamped by the Senat including PUPs this week.

    Because they are are arrogant. Because they are presumptuous. Because they are a clueless rabble who know what they want but are devoid of ability to get there.

    The nincompoops are in charge. Sadly. But fun to watch.

  29. Victoria,

    Anything’s appreciated 🙂

    Lizzie,

    I may have damaged the copy when I attempted to paddle across the dam in an umbrella to observe the fish and birds. HMAS Umbrella was not particularly seaworthy…

  30. psyclaw

    It seems from my reading of things that Palmer wants the L/NP to propose the amendments. He is in NZ for a few days. If he is not back on Monday, who moves the amendments (remember they were not requested by The Senate) it has to be Greg Hunt.

    Palmer is insisting the Government caves in to his requirements, I wonder if Day and Lionhead will vote against The Government’s amendments when the bills return. Peel off another Senator and it is blocked either way. 😆

  33. ruawake

    A. Ghebranious with an article about how sneaky the LNP were in trying to shaft PUP. Trust factor should now be zero. Lionhead gets a mention re new legislation.

    [….the HoR if PUP had opted to ‘trust’ Tony. One of the other cross benches, David Leyonhjelm, is very anti taxes, penalties or otherwise. And he has come out saying that if there are extra taxes/penalties in the repeal bill, *HE* wont be voting for the bill!!! I can guarantee you that the Coalition were well away of Leyonhjelm’s opinion. The other thing he is against is increasing the size of the ACCC!
    .
    Meanwhile, the coalition are trying to placate PUP by pointing out they will increase the size of the ACCC for him!!! But Palmer wants to see the HoR add the penalties into the legislation AND increase the ACCC powers.
    .
    This will no doubt mean they will lose Leyonhjelm’s vote. Which puts the coalition behind the eight ball if they make those changes Palmer wants and still behind it if they do!]
    http://ashghebranious.wordpress.com/2014/07/11/someone-tried-to-pull-a-fast-one/

  34. If Clive does bother to attend Parliament on Monday he could just sit there grinning, moving no motions in the chamber. 😆

  35. [Queensland farmers have been told to prepare for “tough times” by state Agriculture Minister John McVeigh, as predictions show the state’s drought conditions will intensify.

    Seventy-five per cent of the state is currently in drought, but despite the already dire circumstances Mr McVeigh says farmers need to prepare for worse.

    “After two failed wet seasons for many of our producers … this is indeed very sobering news for our farmers and graziers,” Mr McVeigh said.]

  36. Lizzie belated condolences. It sounds like he was a fine man, anyone who promotes Knowledge and respect for our wild life deserves to be admired. I have a copy of “A Field Guide the Birds of Australia but it is an 1985 edition by Graham Prizzy and Roy Doyle.

    The reptile house is also worth supporting and I’ll send $10.

    A couple of years ago on an extended Family outing to the Newcastle show we came to the reptile enclosure my 5yo Grand Niece proudly wore a python draped around her shoulders and my Nephew asked many questions of the young keeper about the reptiles in his care.

    You could see by the smile on the keepers face that he was pleased as punch that so much interest was being shown to the animals in his care and that he felt a great deal of them.

  38. Dee

    Its a shocker.
    [The Queensland Agriculture Minister is warning all farmers to prepare for the worst, with predictions the state is heading into an El Nino weather pattern after two failed wet seasons. Rural lobby group Agforce is also warning farmers to stockpile feed and destock in preparation for the coming dry spell. Three-quarters of the state is already drought declared.]

    Heard a local cattle farmer (Gympie) saying he was already getting $10 a kilo less for similar grade cattle than a year ago. (What live export problems)

    Graziers are de-stocking, should result in cheaper meat. Bet it doesn’t.

  41. Here’s an idea for Tony. He sends his CT repeal bill to a Joint Committee to work out how the feck it will work.

  43. Warren

    [Grand Niece proudly wore a python draped around her shoulders]

    I took one that was offered by a London Zoo handler once and he muttered to me – “Country Australian’s – you ruin the f’ing show”.

  44. [Fran kelly was just on ABC774]

    Is she totally stupid or just an Abbott polisher? Abbott’s efforts at foreign affairs have truly terrible, especially the balance between Japan and China.

    Fran Kelly is total fucking idiot.

  46. The Lib’s and ABC’s efforts to ambush and smear Clive Palmer have been an abject failure.

    The ABC little nasties should wake up that Palmer isn’t a major party rep, he is anti politics and major parties which people may be sick of. Trying the ambush and smear means nothing, is ineffectual.

    People could not give a toss about any business between Palmer and China, the Libs and Labor have already deadened people to notions of dishonest behavior, having themselves been expert at it.

    So what is the ABC to do now other than get their marching orders from The Australian?

  47. It is sure going to be an interesting coming week with Newspoll and both Houses sitting. Normally I don’t check out what is happening in the Senate. Next week I’ll be checking out the running commentary on Pollbludger the Guardian site SMH incognito window and to top it off we have the
    Stafford bye election

    The Libs are sure living out the old Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times

  48. [It is sure going to be an interesting coming week with Newspoll and both Houses sitting.]

    I wonder if Abbott’s triumphant news conference on the CT was supposed to give him a newspoll boost?

  49. Rua

    Of course it doesn’t matter who moves it in the House ….. but since it’s the Abbotteers wanting to get the repeal passed then they will have to do whatever needs to be done, including moving the amendment to Please PUPs.

    As you say, the 2 real nutters (Day and the NSW bald guy) are not happy with the PUP amendment but as true conservos and anti AGWers I doubt they’d vote against Abbott on this. So there’s the 6 Abbott needs. Also I think Xeno and Maddigan will go with Abbott.

    But the real risk for Abbott remains PUP. I think Clive is genuinely moving from an anti to pro AGW stance. He praised what Hewson said yesterday (anti Abbott). And he has his ex Green advisor (Quist???).

    If the repeal is not done quick, it may never pass, because IMHO Clive himself is turning greener and greener everyday. Whether his team is I don’t know. But they sure have little goodwill for the Abbotteers, and getting less and less each day.

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