BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The publication of Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates have caused a few adjustments at state level, but it’s otherwise a very quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. [Will EXA-LOO suggest that I should see a doctor if “my problem persists” for more than the allotted time?

    I don’t know.

    But tomorrow, I’m going to find out.

    Wish me luck.]

    I bet it opens the door, and also automatically writes you up for Public Lewdness.

  2. Just Me:

    Not sure how I’d feel about Labor being associated with a Palmer set up like that.

    Turnbull, yes. Shorten, not so keen.

  3. confession:

    [Last time Clive appeared in public with Turnbull Bolt’s and the Parrott’s heads collectively exploded!]

    Palmer should create a life-size cutout of Turnbull, to use at every presser from now on.

  4. BB

    I remember driving to Queensland some years ago, and the highlight of the entire trip for our children was the automated toilet booth at Taree (I think that’s where it was) when we had lunch at a park.

    Though that 10 minute automated limit could perhaps be usefully applied to the longwinded members in Federal Parliament – the offending members could perhpaps be “flushed” through a trapdoor or something.

  5. [Turnbull, yes. Shorten, not so keen.]

    A Turnbull/Shortern announcement, leaving Tony and Clive out in the cold to comfort each other, works fine too.

    🙂

  6. Living in a Biblical Disneyland ..
    ________________________________ re Gaza..

    Bob Ellis,looks at an earlier article of his..about the carnage in Gaza and wonders what drives the almost manicial fury of the Israelis against a people who have no defence against air raids of any kind ….but which were are forced to regard as neccessary…….
    or he asks … in some stange way do the Jews see the Palestinians as some substitutes for the Nazis…their whole lives being lived in endless reflections of the Holocaust from which they can never recover

    Ellis sees it as partly derived from the religious fundamentalism of a people who see themselves as a “Chosen People ” living in what he calls a kind of “Biblical Disneyland .funded by obese middle-aged US zionists..fired by a strange 19th religious dream “,,,which may carry in it the seeds of it’s ultimate destruction
    Great stuff

    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/07/11/the-first-gaza-war-2009/#comments

  7. We have exaloos in Adelaide, they self clean after the doors close when the loo-user leaves.

    I wonder if an overstayer gets a free shower.

  8. Menzies and Tha Japs
    ___________
    Let’s not forget that Abbott’s mentor and idol, Menzies was a great friend of the pre-war Japanese militarists …with his father a senior official of BHP…and a public support of the sale of pig-iron to the Jap war machine even them raining down death on the Chinese cities after the invasion of China in 1937
    The first great public show of opposition to those polices was by the courageous working men of the Waterfront unions who with nothing to gain…and much to lose.in 1938..banned the supply of such material to the Japanese …and with much public support won a great victory over Menzies and BHP and the Imperial War machione in Tokio
    One hopes someone points out these facts to the Chinese media

  9. Puff,

    I dont know who asked the question but it did sound a bit like ABCs’ Melissa.

    Whoever it was, they didn’t sound impressed at all that the Lying Friar did the old exit stage left routine

  10. [If it is spelt Exeloo then it be a kiwi kazi.]

    Yes, I was so over-awed I got the spelling wrong (but not the ALL CAPS).

    EXELOO it is.

    But if it’sKiwi, then why the “Mission Control” Yank accent?

    And can it tell if the user doesn’t speak English? A fair question, I would have thought, in a tourist area such as right underneath the north end of the Harbour Bridge, just around the corner from Kirribilli House and Joe Hockey’s old alma mater, St. Aloysius College (as well as scenes of the Opera House and the CBD-scape).

    Imagine an Arabic-only speaker, visiting the nearest loo with a dose of Kirribilli Konstipation.

    At the 10 minute mark a Go Pro on hand to record the inevitable outcome would be a bare minimum, I’d warrant.

    It could turn a man to supporting al Qaeda, at the very least.

    An American talking to him in an incomprehensible language through a toilet door, then revealing his danglies and his harem pants ’round his ankles for the world to see?

    It could cause an outright international incident, it could.

  11. deblonay@1156

    Living in a Biblical Disneyland ..
    ________________________________ re Gaza..

    The death toll tells it all.

    Israelis – 0
    Palestinians – 90

    I cannot recall such a one sided conflict.

  12. [We have exaloos in Adelaide, they self clean after the doors close when the loo-user leaves.]

    What if the user does not or CAN not leave?

    (Definitely off to watch a movie now).

  13. Found this gem from just 2 months ago.

    Where have you been? I’ve been to visit the Queen.

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s first term agenda now relies, in no small part, on the social skills of Education Minister Christopher Pyne.
    After three years wrestling with Labor’s Anthony Albanese in the rabid 43rd Parliament, Mr Pyne has now been tasked with managing all communications with the mining magnate Clive Palmer, who will control the balance of power in the new Senate.
    An email sent to Coalition staffers on Friday, obtained by Fairfax Media, reveals all communication with Mr Palmer must be referred through the office of the Education Minister and government leader in the House of Representatives, Mr Pyne.
    “The PM has asked the leader of the house to lead on engagement with Mr Clive Palmer in the House of Reps,” says the email, sent by an adviser to Mr Pyne.
    “Approaches to your minister or office from Mr Palmer with respect to matters in the House of Representatives should be referred to Minister Pyne.
    “I will then look at arranging briefings or other information as relevant between your minister and Mr Palmer.
    “If you have already had any significant dealings with Mr Palmer and his team on House matters I’d greatly appreciate an update.”
    Employment Minister Eric Abetz is responsible for dealing with the Palmer United Party senators in the upper house.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-agenda-rests-on-christopher-pynes-social-skills-20140509-zr8dp.html#ixzz379yb0yc4

  14. [Who was journo who asked @TonyAbbottMHR ‘Have you considered asking @JuliaGillard for tips on dealing with the cross benches’? ROFL!
    #auspol— Shane McNamara (@smaccaroo) July 11, 2014]

    LOL bet that hurt. Not only the suggestion he seek counsel from a mere woman, but from the hated ‘liar’ JG no less. Bet that burned!

  15. ‘Fess, I think you can be sure that that journo will never, ever get an insider briefing ever again. Nor an opportunity to ask a question at a presser.
    But it’s good to know that there’s someone still there in the press gallery who has some guts.

  16. [deblonay
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

    Living in a Biblical Disneyland ..
    ________________________________ re Gaza..

    Bob Ellis,looks at an earlier article of his..about the carnage in Gaza and wonders what drives the almost manicial fury of the Israelis against a people who have no defence against air raids of any kind ….but which were are forced to regard as neccessary…….
    or he asks … in some stange way do the Jews see the Palestinians as some substitutes for the Nazis…their whole lives being lived in endless reflections of the Holocaust from which they can never recover

    Ellis sees it as partly derived from the religious fundamentalism of a people who see themselves as a “Chosen People “ living in what he calls a kind of “Biblical Disneyland .funded by obese middle-aged US zionists..fired by a strange 19th religious dream “,,,which may carry in it the seeds of it’s ultimate destruction
    Great stuff]

    Ellis excels at imaginative drivel and you excel at lapping this sort of crap up.

    ‘…funded by obese middle-aged US zionists..fired by a strange 19th religious dream…’

    This one sort of gives the game away, doesn’t it?

    Israel has a vibrant economy driven by innovation, what is probably the most water-efficient farming sector in the world, high-end manufacturing and tourism.

  17. to run the place.
    1144
    BH
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    Crikey Whitey

    [Thanks for that heartening story re Catholic Colleges.

    Similar happened to make Rudd and Labor change Howard’s policy but once boats started reappearing all hell broke and look where we are today. I detest the space we’re now in re AS.

    Do we need Abbott, Jones, Bolt and their ilk to disappear before a solution is found. Add a few in Labor as well]

    Yes, it is a lovely story. Terrific that young people are exercising some power over such issues.

    I think part of the solution was found in terms of ‘floods of numbers’ under Labor. One that springs to mind, I think and correct me should I be wrong, was the deal by Labor that Indonesia no longer allow on arrival visas to Iranians.

    Their former provision seems to have stimulated the hefty influx of Iranians. Whose arrival again reignited the debate and hostility over ‘economic refugees’.

    As that avenue was curtailed, the harsh later measures of ‘not on our land’ were very effective, if reprehensible.

    Labor could return to a more measured approach, if they took some time to re balance their position.

  18. [ BB
    There is the Quick and the Wet. ]

    That sounds like something horribly premature Puffy……a bit like Abbott’s announcements on repealing the Carbon Price. 🙂

  19. And there is Tony Wright on The Drum, along with Kate Carnell, decrying Clive for being a ‘wrecker’ and expressing horror that he would walk away from an interview.

    Can they not hear themselves?

    At least Tony Abbott stayed the course on a single occasion, they may have said.

    Noddy and the Long Goodbye.

  20. Hi Paddy2!

    I am good, thank you.

    Delighted that things are going well against Newman and It’s Tony Time Running Out.

    Makes my days!

    Bet you are too.

  21. While things are slow in the early 70s I was working as an electrian at Pyrmont near the old bridge, it was a freezer unit freezing half carcasses of beef, lamb, etc for export. the freezer room could freeze 50 half legs of beef in less than a minute at -30C fan forced, worked in there once had saftey tags on every awitch and circuit breaker I could find.

    Now to the point the People’s Republic of China sent over their circus as a good will gesture after Goughs visit.

    They put on a free show for the wharfies me an a few omf my tradie mates gate crashed the show it was excellent.

    For Bishop and Abbott to trash all the hard work that labor put in to have good relationships with our Asian neighbours
    is criminal

  22. Reply to Boerwar re Israel\\______Isreal’s”vibrant economy driven by water efficent agriculture.” is in fact an economy built on water -theft and initially on land theft from the Palestinians after 1948… who now are driven into places like Gaza which are Israeli killing fields…
    but there’s a lot of history still to come in Palestine,and it may be that Isreal’s remoreless attacks on the Palestinian people may reap a terrible harvest in the future..to a post=zionist Palestine…when Apartheid Israel may go the way of that other Apartheid state ,South Africa

  23. bemused

    If you want to make it feel slightly less one-sided, you can put the three teenagers who were kidnapped and summarily executed by Hamas on the Palestinian side of the scorecard.

    Israel would have no reason to lob guided missiles into the Palestinian territories if it weren’t for their deaths, which started this latest round of thoroughly predictable retaliation.

  24. Wot?

    Boerwar.

    I must have written poorly.

    It is you I was congratulating. For yours.

    I have no (known) grandchildren.

  25. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s first term agenda now relies, in no small part, on the social skills of Education Minister Christopher Pyne.
    After three years wrestling with Labor’s Anthony Albanese in the rabid 43rd Parliament, Mr Pyne has now been tasked with managing all communications with the mining magnate Clive Palmer,]

    Oh, s**t, we really are doomed if the fate of the country’s governance depends on Pyne’s social skills! Definitely time to start thinking about immigrating methinks.

  26. [deblonay
    Posted Friday, July 11, 2014 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    Reply to Boerwar re Israel\\______Isreal’s”vibrant economy driven by water efficent agriculture.” is in fact an economy built on water -theft and initially on land theft from the Palestinians after 1948… who now are driven into places like Gaza which are Israeli killing fields…
    but there’s a lot of history still to come in Palestine,and it may be that Isreal’s remoreless attacks on the Palestinian people may reap a terrible harvest in the future..to a post=zionist Palestine…when Apartheid Israel may go the way of that other Apartheid state ,South Africa]

    This is the typical sort of blindly argumentative rubbish that I expect from you.

    You quoted Ellis and commented ‘Great Stuff’. I took just one sentence and exposed it for the sheer rubbish it is.

    So, what do you do?

    You move right along and start arguing about your next set of goalposts.

    I am not making a judgement on the rights or wrongs in Israel v the Palestinians.

    What I am doing is pointing out that Ellis writes shit and that you suck that shit off the floor as if it were divine nectar.

  27. debonay

    “but there’s a lot of history still to come in Palestine,and it may be that Isreal’s remoreless attacks on the Palestinian people may reap a terrible harvest in the future..to a post=zionist Palestine…when Apartheid Israel may go the way of that other Apartheid state ,South Africa”

    I doubt you’re even aware that you live in a world of fantasy. Israel obviously isn’t going anywhere any time soon. The sooner certain segments of the Palestinian side recognise this, the better it will be for everyone.

  28. Another close loss for the Crows. Sums up our season! If only there was a good poll coming out tonight to cheer me up!

  29. Crikey

    Wright n Carnell are sycophants of the rabble.

    Every brown dog knew that Clive had specific amendment demands and what they were.

    Ignorant and arrogant Abetz n Fiefield failed to humour Clive and lay the red carpet out to assist him in all ways in the amendment process, despite having agreed to the amendment.

    And the ignorant and arrogant Abbott had placed his trust in his dopey senators and fled the scene.

    Whilst brown dogs knew all of this, Wright n Carnell didn’t. They too are ignorant and arrogant, and ingenuous.

  30. absolutetwaddle@1187

    bemused

    If you want to make it feel slightly less one-sided, you can put the three teenagers who were kidnapped and summarily executed by Hamas on the Palestinian side of the scorecard.

    Israel would have no reason to lob guided missiles into the Palestinian territories if it weren’t for their deaths, which started this latest round of thoroughly predictable retaliation.

    That was a criminal act and the perpetrators should be brought to justice.

    So too was the abduction and murder of the young Palestinian man, and it is to the credit of the Israelis that they have made arrests.

    But neither of these crimes justifies widespread attacks which kill mainly innocent civilians.

    The Hamas rockets launched at Israel are totally ineffective and simply serve as a show of defiance and to provoke the Israelis to more excesses.

  31. Deblonay

    This is the reality. Ellis reckons this is the result of funding by ‘obese’ zionists.

    What complete rubbish Ellis writes. And how hard-wired you are to lap up any sort of crap as long as it is critical of Israel.

    Here’s a hint: if you want any sort of credibility for your ravings, you need, occasionally, say once in a thousand posts, to show some sort of ability to perceive complexity.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Israel

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