Located at the western edge of Brisbane’s northern suburban corridor, Dickson is one of six seats which have been created to deal with Queensland’s population boom since the expansion of parliament in 1984. From south to north, it presently encompasses the marginal hills district suburbs of Ferny Hills, Arana Hills and Everton Hills; a strongly conservative area around Pine River including Albany Creek and Eatons Hill; and Labor-leaning suburbs along Gympie Road and the Caboolture rail line including Strathpine, Bray Park, Lawnton and Petrie (that latter being confusingly located outside the electorate that bears its name). It also extends westwards beyond the metropolitan area to Lake Samsonvale and the interior edge of the D’Aguilar Range, including the townships of Dayboro and Samford. The populous part of the electorate had hitherto been accommodate mostly by Fisher after 1984, Petrie after 1949, and Lilley beforehand.
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| Teal and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Dickson was won for Labor on its creation in 1993 by Michael Lavarch, who had previously been the member for Fisher. Lavarch went on to serve as Attorney-General in the second term of the Keating government, before becoming one of its highest profile casualties of the 1996 election. The Liberal candidate who defeated him was Tony Smith (not to be confused with the current member for Casey in Melbourne), whose career imploded when he was questioned by police after being seen leaving a building that housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent, which he did with little success. By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the 1998 election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot, who had announced her determination to win a marginal seat for Labor. At first it appeared that her bid had failed, prompting her to lash out on election night at an ALP network that had deprived her campaign of resources. She would in fact go on to win the seat by a margin of 276 votes, but her career as a Labor MP was limited to a single disastrous term, after which she was unseated by a 6.1% swing at the 2001 election.
The new Liberal member was Peter Dutton, owner of a Brisbane child care centre who had earlier worked for the National Crime Authority, the Queensland Police sex offender squad and the Department of Corrective Services. Dutton consolidated his hold on the seat with a 1.8% swing in 2004 and was subsequently admitted to the outer ministry as Workforce Participation Minister, going on to a minor promotion to Revenue Minister and Assistant Treasurer in January 2006. After surviving the heavy statewide swing to Labor at the 2007 election by a margin of 217 votes, Dutton was promoted to shadow cabinet in the finance, competition policy and deregulation portfolios, and then to health and ageing after he backed Malcolm Turbull’s successful leadership challenge against Brendan Nelson in September 2008.
Dutton’s career hit a speed bump when the redistribution ahead of the 2010 election saw Dickson exchange upper Brisbane River valley territory for suburban areas around Murrumba Downs, making it a notionally Labor seat at a time when few foresaw the problems that would engulf the government at the end of its term. Dutton believed he saw a lifeline in Margaret May’s retirement as member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, for which he nominated for preselection. However, well-organised locals had long had their eyes on the succession and were not of a mind to accommodate Dutton, being readily able to draw on the argument that he would serve his party better by fighting for his crucial marginal seat. Dutton unwisely sought to raise the stakes by declaring he would not fall back on Dickson if thwarted in McPherson, evidently hoping preselectors would baulk at the prospect of depriving the party of his services. Despite backing from Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard, this proved to be a miscalculation: the local preselection vote was won by local favourite Karen Andrews, with Dutton reportedly meeting opposition in the branches of the newly merged Liberal National Party from those who had formerly been with the Nationals.
After alternative options failed to emerge, Dutton went back on his word and ran again in Dickson. However, such was the statewide backlash against Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd that he went untroubled, his 5.9% swing being well in line with the state average and enough to secure him a margin of 5.1%. Dickson again closely matched the state trend in recording a further 1.8% swing to the LNP in 2013, putting Dutton’s present margin at 6.7%. Dutton meanwhile has maintained the health portfolio since September 2008, serving as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport since the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.
Dan Gulberry@739
On a more positive note, what can you recommend MTBW do with emails she wants to share?
GG
Well I hope it’s the Hawks that get beat by the Swans in the GF, I love giving it to Victoria 😀
Centre,
You must be pleased with Abbott, Turnbull, Truss Hockey, Bronwyn Bishop et al.
The pride of NSW.
bemused,
I know a place!
Confessions
Don’t boost GG too much. You don’t need to be Enstein to figure out Geelong are just slightly off the pace set by the top four. But don’t underestimate them. You wouldn’t want to play them in a prelim when some of their veterans have a sniff of a last hurrah.
GG
Yep, this State can pick as good a Lib as any of them 😯
Bw
[To last around another 70 years after surviving some huge risks is pretty good, IMHO.]
Lads being Lads on the day, it seems.
Any one of the numerous Hurricane, Spitfire, Mosquito and Mustang wrecks must be worth a fortune.
But I think they were non-cooperative in this. “I flew it and went down, and that’s where it should stay”.
“Enjoyed the swim … ”
I am amused (not ‘bemused’) by Claude’s Flying Suit being filled out in the museum by a huge Webbly .455 revolver.
Consolidated. The flying belt had an empty holster.
[741
rossmcg
Poroti
Yeah funny how Tone’s Tory world leader mates are just so out of touch with him.]
Megalomania only has room for one.
CTaR1
People keep faking any war once it is over.
I notice that the Taliban have just burnt 200 fuel trucks in Kabul.
I suppose it is their way of reminding everyone that that the US and its allies lost.
rossmcg:
And let’s not forget the Dockers in all that as well.
Confessions
We never forget Freo. I like to tell people that I don’t really barrack for any team, but a dockers win warms my heart just a smidge more than any other
[What are the chances Newman will move to a safer seat? Is it even an option for him?]
Its an option but it will make him look like a goose, given he has stated he will contest Ashgrove.
I think he tried to elbow Flegg out of Moggill but is now trying to do a Dutton and hang onto Ashgrove,
pedant:
Odgers Senate Practice makes interesting reading on the subject of disallowable regulation. It seems that the Government has only 6 days from tomorrow in which to table the FoFA regulations in Senate or they become inoperative.
In addition, it seems that any Senator can table outstanding regulations if authorised by the Senate to do so; there have been examples of Opposition and Private Member Senators tabling regulations in the past, in order to disallow them.
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/odgers/chap1506
ru,
Could be the next Queensland election is the Forest Gump “Box of Chocolates” election.
PollsnThings.
I applaud all the marchers out and about today. The ‘little’ revolutions will make the Liars even more nervous.
A much prettier sight than the Parrot’s gang.
On polls. It does matter, but it is not the only source.
Spending time to read the comments on all and sundry political articles is rewarding in itself. They are definitely Not Happy with the regime.
Thanks rua.
I remember him making a bit of a song and dance about re-contesting Ashgrove a couple of months ago, but like anything he’s promised to date, I took it with a large grain of salt.
GG
The fun begins when 30-40 LNP members realise they will be looking for a Centrelink Office the day after the election.
Some will distance themselves from Newman, some will get the deranged importance bug and run as independents, others will join Clive or Bob.
Pass the popcorn. 🙂
Sounds like Liberals are desperate and getting even more personal now:
Kiera @KieraGorden 2m
I’m no fan of Jacqui Lambie, but these memes denigrating her by LNP trolls speaks 2 how low some of them are! #AusPol
It’s unbelievable how could you blow the magnitude of such a gigantic previous election win?
People have voted in far right wing ideologues and are not stupid enough to keep them there it may seem?
Speaking of Chocolate Boxes.
I am watching a previously recorded Grand Designs on ABC.
It is the story of a young Brit soldier amputee building a suitable home. Called the Crooked Chocolate Box Cottage.
Is on youtube. A tribute to a courageous young man, his wife, friends and community.
An illustration of adversity overcome.
Not without help and ongoing financial resources.
Note, Kevin Andrews.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpcu3Xm48K0
Zoidlord.
Why would you not be a fan of Jacqi Lambie?
Okay, she is unlikely to meet our hopes and dreams.
But I love how she sticks it to the Liars.
Good enough in itself.
Abbott won the election on the 7th of Sept last year. Tomorrow marks it exactly 10 months in government.
What has Abbott achieved? Ideological stupidity (repealing a carbon tax that converts to an ETS with a substantially reduced carbon price anyway) THAT IS ALL!
[It’s unbelievable how could you blow the magnitude of such a gigantic previous election win?]
Well, Newman’s mob have achieved it. And in a period of just over 2 years.
Well, Abbott has achieved his goal of personal enrichment.
He is helping his mates and the business community to help themselves to our money.
As directed, he has met Murdoch’s goals.
As has the IPA.
He will achieve infamy.
zoidlord
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 6:50 pm | PERMALINK
@bemused/724
Yes, they are talking about real NBN.
Zoidlord and/or Bemused
I received a letter from NBNCo a couple of weeks ago telling me I am going to be connected to the NBN some time between July and August this year. It spoke about the fibre being connected to a small box attached to the wall of my house.
That sounds like the real thing to me, not Fraudband. What do you think?
connie
Maybe QLD’ers are not that dumb. Yep could’ve fooled me too 😆
Kidding 😛
The ‘death spiral’ scaring electricity providers (Victoria)
Date July 6, 2014 – 7:34PM
285 reading now
Peter Martin
It is called ”the death spiral” and it is terrifying power suppliers.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-death-spiral-scaring-electricity-providers-20140706-zsy76.html#ixzz36gKNY3zV
Centre:
My perception of what’s been happening in Qld from the other side of the country (plus talking to my dad who lives there) is that they totally thought they could take voters for granted because of their huge parliamentary majority.
Darn@775
Yes, the real thing, fibre to the premises.
I started that conversation by mentioning an iinet advertisement for $49.95 per month plans.
Darn
Are you suggesting that the Libs have discovered that the real deal NBN is far more economical and far more valuable that what Abbott and Rupe had intended but are too chicken to tell us?
They’d be chicken to tell us but I doubt it!
Bw
Other stuff I can think about otherwise.
I don’t wonder about it but the IMP have the revolver strapped on the wrong side – Claude was a left-hander.
It would have been strapped backwards on the left thigh.
They are, possibly correct, in taking my correction on this as not ‘representative..
bemused
Sorry for the delay in responding, jut been having dinner.
If there’s a link in mtbw’s email, post that link on here. Or open up the page linked to, and then post the url from that.
If it’s a text email with no links, then copy and paste the text here.
Without knowing exactly what mtbw’s email is, that’s all I can suggest.
Thanks Bemused
Are you able to tell me why Fraudband apparently hasn’t been introduced yet. Is it that wrecker Abbott needs to get legislation through the parliament to do it? (and if so does does that mean Fraudband can be blocked in the Senate)?
Dan Gulberry@782
Pretty much what I thought, but I was hoping you had some clever trick.
I just use the copy and paste for text. Too bad about any graphics unless there is also a link in the text.
Cw@771 “Why would you not be a fan of Jacqi Lambie?”
Me for one. She is ex military and in my experience ex military are usually far right. She showed this the other day when she said she was ‘for’ delisting Tasmanian forests from the world heritage register. Her excuse: “too much land is locked up in parks” (or wtte).
Darn@783
Well, they have to work out a new design, determine what equipment to use in their cabinets, put out tenders for cabinets and enclosed equipment, put out tenders for installation etc.
A bit like turning a large ship. It doesn’t happen quickly.
I would also imagine any employees with professional pride would not be approaching a known dud system with great enthusiasm and vigour.
centre
[What has Abbott achieved?]
Blowing their TPP out to a landslide for the opposition;
Pissing off pensioners;
Pissing off the scientific community;
Pissing off existing uni students;
Pissing off the families of existing uni students;
Pissing off potential uni students;
Pissing off the families of potential uni students;
Pissing off the disabled;
Pissing off the families of the disabled;
Pissing off young people who can’t find non-existent jobs;
Pissing off the families of young people who can’t find
non-existent jobs;
Pissing off anyone who might have to see a doctor in the future;
Pissing off enough ordinary Australians and inspiring them to march through the streets three times in protest during their first term in office.
That (probably incomplete) list is quite a set of achievements.
Labor, the Greens, PUP, Katter, or any other party could never have managed all of that during their first term.
Credit where it’s due 😉
Darn, i am currently hooked up up to Telstra cable at 100mips. It is fantastic. I was recently working on someone’s computer which had ADSL – I now find it incredibly slow.
I think from memory FTTP is going to give you 100mips.
The poor bunnies who will get fraudband, can expect 25mips or twice the speed of ADSL.
In their updated plan for the NBN they did say they would still be doing 30% of connections via FTTP, a la the original NBN, so they still be doing a fair bit of FTTP, and presumably given they had already ramped up to be rolling out FTTP that will be what is going on now.
The positive I can see in the dodgy plan they put out was that 30% is more than enough to properly compare FTTP with fraudband, and … FTTP should win hands down on all sorts of measures.
PeeBee@785
Ahem … excuse me, there are a few of us on PB who are ex-military and not hard right. 😛
That said, Peter FitzSimons had a lovely description of her which I posted this morning.
[But have we ever seen one like the just installed Senator Jacqui Lambie from – where else, but – Tassie. Part of the Palmer United Party, her every utterance seems laced with three parts menace to two parts ignorance and five parts sheer bellicosity. Calling the Prime Minister a “political psychopath” this week proved to be among the more mild of her remarks. Most fascinating, was when Mrs TFF interviewed her on the Today Show on Friday and asked her did she have ambitions to be prime minister herself, her response was unequivocal.
“Absolutely.”
Hold on to your hats, and strap on your seat-belts, folks. I think we may be in for a hell of a ride. And though it is too much to say the lunatics have taken over the asylum, it is clear they have the balance of power.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/political-mouthing-and-racist-rants-20140704-zsvyq.html#ixzz36gStkoG5 ]
[The poor bunnies who will get fraudband, can expect 25mips or twice the speed of ADSL.]
The govt is continuing to roll out Labor’s FTTP NBN in this electorate, at least according to media reports in the local paper. So it would appear that the NBN lives on even without MT’s much insisted-upon cost benefit analysis.
PeeBee@788
I had a door-knocker yesterday trying to get me to switch to a Telstra cable system running off their Foxtel cable.
This is not NBN but might become part of Fraudband.
Sorry Bemused but you are ‘not in my experience’.
CW
Also a good story here on the electrical power grid.
http://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2014/july/1404136800/jess-hill/power-corrupts
Bemused.
YESSIR!
PeeBee@793
Well I was in a bit of a minority, but not as small as you might think.
And I did meet some quite senior officers who were not by any means hard-right Tory.
Bemused, my cable is the same cable that would have provided Foxtel, had I subscribed. It was rolled put under Howard, when he gave money to Telstra and Optus to run out cable. They chased each other down the wealthier suburban streets to sign up as many people as possible. It was an incredible mess. Optus ran a wire thought the poles down our street to hook their cable to, but Telstra beat them so Optus just left the wire dangling between the poles and went somewhere else.
Talking to the Ultras
______________________
Louis Theroux, a clever US TV interview who looks ..in a series of programs.. looks at religious extremists, tonight on ABC2..,at 10.13 pm…looks at the Ultra Zionists
I saw the program last year on US TV and it’s interesting if a bit weird
The “ultras” he interviews have not a shadow of doubt that they are the Chosen POeople and have a god-given right to Palestine…and look out anyone who disputes them,for the will be destroyed by God himself
so silly are they(most with US accents too) that are both shocking and amusing…as long as you aren’t a Palestinian
see review below
ABC 2- 10.13 pm tonight
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/louis-theroux-ultra-zionists/
I’m not fan of Lambie but any additional voice in parliament is good for democracy. As it was 2 majors and 1 minor is far from enough.
Qld and NSW suffer from the problem of optional preferencing. In 2012, Queenslanders didn’t love LNP, they just got tired of Bligh. Newman’s in trouble because he is thinking of doing some of the things Bligh did (asset sales) and a bit more.
In NSW, the loss wasn’t as big but Labor was down to some 20 seats. Luckily for them NSW still have an upper house.
Bemused, the only problem I have with my cable is that I have to have Telstra as my provider as it is their cable. Needles they charge an arm and a leg for their premium service which costs $79 a month.
If the cable was owned by one company and various retailers could use it and offer different products, then I would expect the price to be better, something like your $49 per month.
Incidentally, I get 40 gig a month for my $79. Which is plenty for me at the moment.