BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate finds the latest Newspoll result checking the Coalition’s modest poll recovery, and drives Tony Abbott’s personal ratings to a new low.

The Coalition’s mildly improving polling trend over the past few weeks has taken a knock after the latest bad result from Newspoll, contributing to a 0.5% two-party shift in Labor’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. On the state-level seat projection, the big move this week is a three-seat shift to Labor in Queensland, where the Labor swing had probably been a bit undercooked on recent readings, along with one-seat gains in New South Wales and Western Australia. However, Labor is down a seat in Victoria after a blowout in their favour last week and also down one in Tasmania, resulting in a net gain of three. Newspoll also provided a new set of leadership ratings this week, which have pushed Tony Abbott out to his worst net personal approval rating since the election. Other figures on voting intention were provided this week by Essential Research, ReachTEL and Morgan. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. [600
    zoidlord

    sortius ‏@sortius 21m

    .@gjfitzgerald the economy is contracting too. Open for business? Nah, open for exploitation! #auspol ]

    I am increasingly of the view that Abbott and his backers are deliberately trying to engineer some economic hard times, to ‘justify’ gutting wages and conditions, the social insurance safety net, handing over the keys to the corporatistas for a song, and generally subjugating the population.

    Of course, they will blame it all on Labor. But somehow I don’t think they will get away with that line much anymore.

  3. Rummel, i am neither left, center or right of any politics, so you can put your little lefty rant back in your place.

  4. rummel
    [Feed Abbott voters, climate deniers and a right leaning female to the sharks is a great idea… Mention chaff bag and it becomes bad taste towards Gillard. Amazing!]
    Well obviously. Feeding those types to the sharks wouldn’t be bad taste towards Gillard. Duh.

  5. [gutting wages and conditions, the social insurance safety net,]

    gutting wages and conditions and the social insurance safety net,

  6. [You only need to read between the lines to realise that Turnbull is seething at the choice of Brown and Albrechtsen:]

    Methinks that this could be the beginning of a campaign by Malcolm to put some distance between himself and the PM. His comments moved what was essentially a peripheral issue and made it much more centre stage.

  8. [i am neither left, center or right of any politics]

    Many are over politics, not sure what being under politics would mean.

  10. [I’d love to have a bit of Liberal leadershit right about now!]

    Best way to get rid of Tony Abbott would be at the hands of the voters through the ballot box.

  11. [Best way to get rid of Tony Abbott would be at the hands of the voters through the ballot box.]

    Over to you, Peter Cosgrove.

  12. Just me

    No it’s not just you, I have been of that view for some time. Sure the economy needs some restructuring but I somehow doubt that driving down people’s wages, and I mean real cuts not just curbing growth, is the way to do it.

    Economists say Australia has become a service economy, well when people’s disposable income falls they cut back on services. And those services are invariably supplied by Tory backed business.

    Beats me how they think we will all be better off, though I once read that a depression is a good time for the rich to get richer by buying up property at the mortgagee sales.

  15. poroti

    The Septic’s could no doubt make the Hellfire missiles work on the SU25’s. They upgraded the ones the Georgians had.

    But in this case they won’t help because of the Iranian involvement.

  18. This ABC nomination panel story is a strange one. The idea that the four individuals chosen were selected by the bureaucracy beggars belief. If everyone’s assumption (including Malcolm Turnbull’s, judging from the facetious remarks he has been making today) is wrong and it actually was the public service that came up with these names, then the bureaucrats involved deserve censure for needlessly embarrassing the Government.

    Nothing wrong with the choices of Ric Smith and David Gonski. And – although she should have been discarded as too controversial – it is remotely conceivable that bureaucrats might have come up with the idea of Janet Albrechtsen: it is difficult to find suitably-qualified women for these sorts of appointments and Albrechtsen is qualified by dint of having previously served on the ABC Board. Notwithstanding her espoused right-wing views, and the identity of her current boyfriend, she has never been an active party political person.

    But Neil Brown? It’s almost impossible to see him as anything other politically-aligned. But we are to believe that neutral public servants have chosen him to serve on a panel whose supposed mission is to depoliticise appointments to the SBS and ABC boards.

    We can expect Labor Senators to have an enormous amount of with this issue at the next Senate Estimates hearings.

    But it also should be seen as something of a black day for the public service. I note that Ian Watt is refusing to make any sort of public comment. The whole business rather taints the Federal public service with a tinge of the role played by bureaucracies in totalitarian regimes. One would hope not to see anything similar in future.

  20. GG @ 667

    Thank you for your warm welcome back. Been flat out on the work front and lunchtime stroll is best for clearing out the cobwebs – too cold today so I thought I would look in.

  21. [ The idea that the four individuals chosen were selected by the bureaucracy beggars belief.]

    Esp appointments made under this particular govt.

  22. @rossmsg/662

    I agree with those economists that Australia is a services economy, and things like the National Broadband Network were to help address those issues.

    Transition companies so they can exist in real-world and online.
    Transition digital companies – so costs of starting up as a digital only is decreased.
    Transition Education and Health online.

    All long term plans that require more than 1 term in parliament.

  23. [ Feed Abbott voters, climate deniers and a right leaning female to the sharks is a great idea… ]

    That’s a rather cruel thing to do to a poor defenceless White Pointer isn’t it?

    On the other hand, mooring Planet Janet off Cottesloe Beach could be a very effective protective measure for swimmers……provided she is adequately gagged so no-one has to put up with her nonsensical rantings.

  25. meher

    [But it also should be seen as something of a black day for the public service. I note that Ian Watt is refusing to make any sort of public comment. The whole business rather taints the Federal public service with a tinge of the role played by bureaucracies in totalitarian regimes. One would hope not to see anything similar in future.]

    Having dealt with Watt in his DoFA days I can say he’s one strange individual.

  26. BTW, it was good to see Kieran Loveridge given more time in the clink. The trial judge had manifestly under-valued the severity of the crimes committed by Loveridge that night and (although this doesn’t seem to have come up in the appeal) also reduced the sentence on the grounds of a very spurious “contrition” allegedly demonstrated by Loveridge (which fell a long way short of even saying “I’m sorry”).

    I am totally familiar with all the complex legal and ethical debates around the sentencing of violent criminals. But sometimes we need to cut through all that guff and just take a bit of a commonsense view.

    To me, the commonsense view is that someone who feels the need to wander around city streets randomly punching out innocent strangers and – in the process – kills one of them – has committed murder: perhaps not technically, but morally. They also – until we are certain that they have been rehabilitated – clearly represent a major danger to society.

    So the commonsense view would expect someone who behaves like this to be locked away for a long, long time: eg, something broadly comparable to the sentences given the likes of Lindy Chamberlain, who got life, or the questionably convicted Tasmanian Susan Neill Fraser (no body, no murder weapon, no witnesses), who got 23 years.

    OK, so 99% of the lawyers I know tend to scoff at the commonsense view I have expressed above. But most ordinary citizens are on the same wavelength as me and – if they want to avoid having elected parliaments encumber them with silly mandatory sentences – judges do have to pay some attention to public attitudes. The appeal court appears to has done this in the case of Loveridge.

  27. CTari @675: That’s not my experience of the man (albeit, before his DoFA days). He always seemed to be a pretty straight shooter to me.

  28. [Feed Abbott voters, climate deniers and a right leaning female to the sharks is a great idea… Mention chaff bag and it becomes bad taste towards Gillard. Amazing!]

    It’s amazing how with material like that cud chewer hasn’t been offered a talkback hosting position or a panel invitation from Sky News.

  31. zoidlord@653

    Rummel, i am neither left, center or right of any politics, so you can put your little lefty rant back in your place.

    That leaves “off the planet”, which I have long suspected. 😛

  33. RE Vic RC on Unions
    _______________
    It is obvious that the Libs in Victoria..in dire straits…will seek to make union corruption a major election issue,and wihl use the RS to futher this aim

    I fear it will be a real dificulty for Labor…which until now seems to have had a clear run to the Nov Polls

  34. [Rummel, i am neither left, center or right of any politics, so you can put your little lefty rant back in your place.]

    Left right out of politics 😉

  39. [663
    blackburnpseph

    >Over to you, Peter Cosgrove.

    Or 8 crossbenchers and a DD trigger!!]

    The first constitutionally legit opportunity that turns up is fine by me.

  42. [An “unsettled” Australia in simple terms.]

    Amazing ignorance from the “PM for indigenous affairs” no less.

  43. [ Raaraa
    Posted Friday, July 4, 2014 at 2:21 pm | Permalink
    674

    Any Americans reading that would think Australia is in some kind of Bizarro world.

    ]

    ——————————————————

    Having lived in the US – and reading BKs daily “Land Of The Free” – then I know which is the Bizarro world …. and I think we are sooo lucky we live in OZ ( – well . presently sadly spoiled by Abbott and his dodgy bros gang of spivs, shonks and shysters )

  45. As fas as how “unsettled” Australia was before the European invasion, one should read The Biggest Estate on Earth, how aborigines made Australia. By Bill Gammage.

  47. CTar1@679: the Department of Finance is generally meant to be pretty micro-focused. But – perhaps until this current nonsense came along – I felt that the good thing about Watt as Secretary of the PM’s Dept was that he is more vanilla and process-oriented than the three rather colourful characters before him: Max the Axe (generally smart and competent, but overly opinionated on almost every imaginable subject); Peter Shergold (an incredible showman who was a bit light on substance) and Terry Moran (more opinionated even than Max, but rather less competent and whose main claim to fame was his closeness to Rudd which, for whatever reason, totally evaporated almost immediately).

    Watt doesn’t seem to have put a foot wrong up to now. Which is what is so odd.

  48. Meher baba

    [OK, so 99% of the lawyers I know tend to scoff at the commonsense view I have expressed above. But most ordinary citizens are on the same wavelength as me and – if they want to avoid having elected parliaments encumber them with silly mandatory sentences – judges do have to pay some attention to public attitudes. The appeal court appears to has done this in the case of Loveridge.]

    This is classic populism. I am always looking for real texts to use as exemplars for my students practising source-based questions, so thanks so much for this offering. Ypu’ve ticked many of the boxes, using the argot aptly, have ‘othered’ the socially remote and solidarised with the populist’s view of the authentic. It would have been nice if you’d included a reference to localism but one can’t have everything I suppose. The students would think I had made it up!

  49. [662
    rossmcg

    Beats me how they think we will all be better off, though I once read that a depression is a good time for the rich to get richer by buying up property at the mortgagee sales.]

    Yep. They do okay from bad times. Might take a short term cut to income, but their personal comfort is in no danger, and they can grab some fantastic bargains.

    A degree of vested interest in a bit of economic downturn every so often, you might say.

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