The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.
Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.
Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.
UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:
• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).
• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.
On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.
The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.
C’mon Malcolm – challenge!
Oh well, I guess that puts the final stamp of judgement on Abbott’s supposed brilliant overseas trip.
You have to wonder what motivates the 45% who seem to think Abbott and Hockey are doing the right thing – alt5hough no doubt quite a few are holding their nose.
You might be onto something Guytaur. It would certainly explain a lot, behaving like children, incapable of control, self-centred. Good reason to keep them away from pointy things and things that go bang.
Clayton’s recovery over. Now we can all get some sleep etc.
#referencesthatdateme
FarQU
Thus the science fiction story of a lottery where the prize is to be a Minister or PM.
As soon as you want the position you are not eligible
Well if QandA’s anything to go by, Sarah Henderson’s seat is some peril come 2016.
“@anthonyackroyd: Al Gore caught in bed with miner! #Lateline”
😆
55-45 are great numbers.
Thanks WB & GWVotes. Saves me having to look in their rag…
Turnbull’s claim today that the public are warming to the Federal Budget somewhat blown out of the water by today’s Newspoll.
I know realism is useful at times but I would expect about 80/20 against to be a “good” set of figures for the Budget and current Abbott Government performance.
Google news
The Oz headline:
Polls Hammers Coalition Again
Warms the cockles it does
Turnbull is right – people are warming up to attack the Budget even more when they understand what a nasty set of values lie behind it. Spoilt Liberal private school boys giving it back to those who don’t support them warms some people’s hearts but not a lot.
But, but…we’re open for business, you ingrates! 😛
See, my view is that the ‘slug em year 1, suck up in year 3’ theory is a bit ordinary, and will be found wanting in 2016.
First, it barely worked for Howard – a man of considerably greater political talents. He squeaked it on a marginal seat strategy: this is hardly a good basis for an enduring political truism.
Second, Abbott is more widely disliked.
Third, an equaly plausible theory is that these polls could be showing (as they did for Gillard) that people have made up their minds.
A point which has not, I think, been widely noted yet is that it is typically rather difficult at this stage in the life of a newly elected government for an opposition to put forward criticisms in a way which resonates with the public. Many people feel a sense of ownership of the decision to change government, and early criticism tends to come across as sour grapes/whingeing/being a bad loser and so on. Malcolm Turnbull was tarred with that brush to some extent, and of course Dr Nelson never made any headway.
Oppositions usually have to be prepared to just chip away until members of the public make up their own minds that the government isn’t what they wanted – a process which typically takes several years – and only then can they start firing broadsides.
Now, however, the Opposition is well placed to come in with all guns blazing in the knowledge that they won’t be fighting public opinion, but will rather be channelling it. And the two issues which they are quite rightly prioritising – Mr Abbott’s lying before the election, and “fairness” – are both deadly for the government.
I can’t recall a time in federal politics quite like this, which is why I think that the assumption that governments will almost automatically get a second term is of limited relevance just now.
I reckon that skewering of Henderson has the potential to go viral.
Darn
Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 11:25 pm | PERMALINK
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 10:58 pm | PERMALINK
Centre
You sound like those people who say all politicians are as bad as each other.
You did not address my claim that women are responsible for the wars that have plagued this planet since groups of humans met each other around a waterhole. In this modern times they are not responsible for the way the world’s resources are used because they don’t bloody well control them. Nor do we control the decisions men make have wars.
Refute it if you can. And stop hiding behind the equivalency argument.
Puff
First, please don’t consider not posting here. You are a valued contributor and that would be a real pity.
Second, every woman who leads her nation, as Hilary Clinton is likely to do in a couple of years, does control the military resources of that country – and a number of them have been just as willing as their male counterparts to send (mainly) young men off to fight and die in wars.
Third
Interesting to learn that you are a sociologist. That was one of my dual majors at uni.
Hudsons article uses the word “WORST” twice.
🙁
Voter dissatisfaction with Tony Abbott has reached the highest level since he became Prime Minister, 62 per cent, and is his worst personal result since November 2012.
With his approval rating at 31 per cent, Mr Abbott’s net approval of minus 31 points is the worst for a prime minister since Julia Gillard scored minus 34 points just days before she was replaced by Kevin Rudd in June last year.
Bill Shorten has also regained a 10-point lead as better prime minister that he took after the budget.
Surprisingly not paywalled:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-government-continues-to-struggle-newspoll-figures-show/story-fn59niix-1226972945884
First signs Murdoch losing faith in Abbott? He has form in dumping Conservative Governments… Watch the Australian carefully over coming weeks for signs of a shift…
Rossmore 10 – maybe it was Malcolm getting a “warm feeling” since the Budget!
Full details of this “WORST” poll for LNP/IPA in “The Australian” tomorrow.
LoL
I won’t be buying it…
Suck it up princesses
The trend against the government is firming.
The new Senate is looking more hostile than I expected so I expect the polls to remain low for the government,
They might change this if they change policies.
Pedant 15 Perceptive analysis. The difficult challenge for the ALP is sustaining the focus on the ‘lying’, ‘unfair’ LNP Government over the next 12-18 months. If they can maintain that narrative as the key public narrative they are well placed to dump this LNP Gov.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 43s
#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-2) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 13 (+3) #auspol
[Many people feel a sense of ownership of the decision to change government, and early criticism tends to come across as sour grapes/whingeing/being a bad loser and so on….
I can’t recall a time in federal politics quite like this, which is why I think that the assumption that governments will almost automatically get a second term is of limited relevance just now.]
Astute points, Pedant.
Once Abbott is understood mainly as the public’s means to terminate the Rudd/ Gillard fiasco, and in that sense, the final phase of that fiasco, with no enthusiasm or love behind it, the public’s attitude become’s quite frightening for the LNP.
They were, at best, preapred to be pleasantly surprised. Well they got a surprise alright – but not a pleasant one.
His main hope was at least being consistent. Instead every dodgy donor spiv, every unqualified crazy from the IPA and every nasty from hard right got granted one evil wish.
There’ll be no second chance for this lot.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 22s
#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 34 (0) Disapprove 41 (-4) #auspol
[I know realism is useful at times but I would expect about 80/20 against to be a “good” set of figures for the Budget and current Abbott Government performance.]
55-45 may well reflect there being an 80/20 split among those currently prepared to shift their vote.
[silentmajority
Posted Monday, June 30, 2014 at 11:25 pm | PERMALINK
Google news
The Oz headline:
Polls Hammers Coalition Again
Warms the cockles it does]
That it does SM – that it does.
[#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-2) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 13 (+3) #auspol]
I expect we’ll never get Newspoll PUP voting intention, but still I’d like to see it.
Neilsen
ALP 53
LNP 47
Morgan
ALP 54.5
LNP 45.5
Newspoll
ALP 55
LNP 45
Best budget bounce for the ALP I’ve ever seen.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 34 (-3) Shorten 44 (+4) #auspol
Well,this stat is most instructive from the GG article referred to above:
[With his approval rating at 31 per cent, Mr Abbott’s net approval of minus 31 points is the worst for a prime minister since Julia Gillard scored minus 34 points just days before she was replaced by Kevin Rudd in June last year.]
LeftyE Brilliantly put, a perfect summation of the first 9 months of this LNP Government,
“Instead every dodgy donor spiv, every unqualified crazy from the IPA and every nasty from hard right got granted one evil wish.”
Amid all the talk about the budget, it’s worth bearing in mind that the LNP was actually behind in the polls before the budget.
I can’t recall a government which has so gone out of its way to give gratuitous offence to so many people so early in its term. And the people so offended are unlikely to forgive and forget.
They have an attitude which was captured and skewered perfectly in the comment on Q&A this evening from the former Liberal candidate. The government appears to see itself not as servants of all the people, but as the masters of a private boarding school, mandated to knock the students – that’s us – into shape with a bit of muscular Christianity. Except that, like the characters in Le Carre’s boarding schools, they turn out on closer inspection to be pretty feeble characters themselves.
Brecht once made the tart comment: “The Parliament and the people are out of step: we must get a new people”. It doesn’t work that way in a democracy, and it’s probably going to end in tears for the LNP.
Generally speaking this is a great set of numbers, but I find it mildly irritating that even with the Libs on the ropes Labor still can’t get its pv above 37. Anything with a 4 in front of it and it’s just about shut the gate.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/turnbull-pm-not-likely-any-time-soon.html
Polling roundup updated (new tracking graph at the bottom). I have it at 53.5 to Labor now, down only 0.5 from immediately post-Budget.
This government seems to be set on proving everything Labor and the Greens have said about the LNP.
Lolling that Shorten’s personal approval marginally declines but his PPM has gone to +10. Kinda says some people dont like Shorten that much but still seriously prefer him to Abbott. Important to consider difference in undecideds numbers. Most express a view re: Abbott. Shorten still 25% neutral/undecided.
Love that word
“worst”
Pedant 34 Indeed. “it’s probably going to end in tears for the LNP.” Is June 2014 the high water mark of the right wing Tea Party LNP.
In Government, pursuing its policies with aggression and confidence … Brandis, Morrison, Andrews, Dutton, Hockey and their figurehead Abbott.
The vibe is this vision is getting little if any traction.
Rossmore @ 23: Maintaining the rage will only be difficult if the government changes its spots. However, it was said of Henry Kissinger that he lied not because it was in his interest, but because it was in his nature, and I suspect that may turn out to be true of Mr Abbott. Anyway, recent history suggests that (i) there are few things that tick voters off quite as much as a sense that a politician has lied to them about something important; and (ii) once people have decided you are a liar, there’s almost nothing you can do about it. Trust is asymmetrical: takes a long time to build up, and a short time to lose.
And is there really any likelihood that the government is suddenly going to acquire a sense of fairness which up until now has been lacking? Their problem isn’t that they believe in fairness too, but have made some blunders in giving effect to it: it’s that they don’t accept the basic concept in the form that most Australians do. For the government, fairness is about protecting property rights, having a safety net (albeit one in which they are busily cutting holes), and thereafter letting the market rip.
Surely there will be rumblings within the coalition soon.
Goodnight 🙂
[Generally speaking this is a great set of numbers, but I find it mildly irritating that even with the Libs on the ropes Labor still can’t get its pv above 37. Anything with a 4 in front of it and it’s just about shut the gate.]
well, yes, but the LNP on 35 casts 37 in rather different light. Then you factor in the GRNs on 13.
Add in PUP messing with the LNPs primary, and 37 is the new 42.
Chrissy Pyne for PM
@TP/45
You mean Redface for PM?
ps 42 – I am starting to think Labor will win in Victoria. This would make Baillieu/Napthine the first one term government since 1955 (John Cain Snr post Labor Split). I think that would be an extraordinary result, and a lot of Federal Libs in marginal seats would start getting very nervous.
you would expect labours primary vote to recover another point or two in the next two years
Labour’s performance has probably been about average since the election and the coalitions abysmal
Rossmore @ 40: And they also have too many duds as ministers. The political cost of sacking ministers is significant in the short run; but in the long run, having incompetents running the show is more costly. Senator Brandeis for one should be gone by now, he has stuffed up almost everything that he’s touched, and almost single-handedly united a wide range of grassroots community groups in opposition to the government.
tp – 45 – I can’t believe that I am actually scrolling down the Abbott Ministry! The only contenders I can find with my “apolitical hat” on are (really being serious here)
Bishop (J!)
Turnbull
Hunt
Hockey is stuffed because of his budget, and Morrison’s standing is sinking like a boat in the proverbial ocean.
Thought about Brandis, but too “bland” for general population I think.