Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a slight improving trend for the Abbott government in recent weeks, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result has it back to its worst.

The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.

Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.

UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:

• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).

• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.

On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.

The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,274 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. From previous thread:

    bemused@1140 on Seat of the week: Maribyrnong | The Poll Bludger

    Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1099

    It is not misandry to point out that wars are and always have been instigated, carried out and financed by men. Men plan the wars, make the armies, take the resources to fund armaments, and destroy people, animals, habitats and thousands of years of infrustructure in their wars. Women and kids are involved but that is all. In addition men use wars to steal goods, rape women and kids and torture non-combatants. Additionally or maybe purposely wars allow men to relate to each other in ways considered as a sign of homosexuality in civil life.

    Now if misandry is the abuse i have to cop every time I make a criticism of any male or males as a group, this sociologist is going to leave this site for somewhere else. I already cut back my visits here because I find every time I mention Julia Gillard I am targeted.

    If you want an nice little boy’s club where women don’t rock the boat you can have it. I notice a few of the ‘weaker sex’ not being here as often as before.

    There you go again Puff. Can’t help yourself.

  2. I know a little PUP that might be interested in stirring up the coalition leadership debate (actually he’s not that little at all!)

  3. The LNP are behind because they hid their true agenda before the elections. They finally sprung it on an unsuspecting electorate with the budget, although there were quite a few unpleasant surprises before then.

    All Governments break promises – sometimes because those promises were rash, sometimes because of changed circumstances – but I cannot recall any government that lied their way into office the way the Abbott Government did. Very few of the people who switched votes in 2010 and 2013 to the Coalition are free market ideologues. They voted to stop the boats and as a ‘bonus’ got moves to end bulk billing and commence the dismantling of Medicare and public health, an attack on pensions and a doubling of tertiary education fees.

    As Rossmore @23 says, the Opposition has to hammer away at the twin themes of ‘unfair’ and ‘lying’.

  4. The other thing which makes me doubt that government’s ability to be born again is something you hear a lot around Canberra these days: they aren’t making good use of the public service. When you are in Opposition, the public service makes a convenient whipping boy: when you are in government, like it or not, they are your staff.

    The IPA is a pressure group, a lot of its staff are wet behind the ears, student politicians (second class) at best, and it’s not its job to look for unanticipated consequences of its pet proposals, about which it probably doesn’t care anyway. Thinking about such things is the job of the public service, and if you aren’t using them well, you will continue to make blunders caused by not having thought things through. It’s no accident that Ms Bishop has done reasonably well as Foreign Minister: she’s working quite well her Department, by all accounts. Former Attorneys-General by and large knew that they weren’t great lawyers, and therefore made good use of the government’s experts. Senator Brandeis thingks he’s a great lawyer himself, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding, and therefore is too inclined to fly by the seat of his pants.

  5. re Rossmore @40: The vibe is this vision is getting little if any traction.

    The Liberals have made no attempt to win hearts and minds on their true agenda. They’re trying to slip it in under cover of the alleged ‘Budget Emergency’, but it looks as though only the converted are buying it.

  6. pedant – the other thing I think is they are fighting “yesterday’s battles”. Labor did this this with the GST “rollback” (is that what it was called) in 2001 – it is a dead loss.

    But for most people the pursuit of Gillard is like the pursuit of Keating over a piggery. In politics you just need to move on. After Hawke remade Medibank as Medicare the coaltion platform called for its destruction in 1984, 1987, 1990, 1993. Eventually the penny dropped and they knew they were flogging a dead horse, and accepted it in their 1996 platform.

    (though recent events would indicate that they still have a deep-rooted gnawing desire to destroy medicare after all!)

    I think when Labor next win office the ETS will be like Medicare, the “reincarnation” of Whitlam’s Medibank, and here to stay.

  7. Steve777@64

    re Rossmore @40: The vibe is this vision is getting little if any traction.

    The Liberals have made no attempt to win hearts and minds on their true agenda. They’re trying to slip it in under cover of the alleged ‘Budget Emergency’, but it looks as though only the converted are buying it.

    The ‘Budget Emergency’ seems to be not getting any traction.

    So what do they do next when they inevitably give up on that one?

  8. Had to have one final look at “The Australian” website before going to bed, and (shock!) – the Newspoll article by Phillip Hudson has retreated behind the paywall, lest prying eyes should see it !

  9. bemused

    Yes – if you propose an unpopular measure (say GST) and it eventually gets up, people move on.

    The problem is if you propose an unpopular measure and seem incredibly committed to it ($7 co-payment) and then it doesn’t get up. Because you will forver be asked “are you going to do that if you win this election?”

    Though I suppose you can always put your hand on your heart and say to Ray Martin on national TV “Never ever” !!

  10. Full Newspoll table

    Full length article in the Oz
    [Coalition’s budget message fails to provide poll lift: Newspoll
    The Australian July 01, 2014 12:00AM
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    SUPPORT for the Abbott government is now 10 points below its election-winning vote, nearly 300 days ago, with the Coalition not making any headway since the budget in selling its tough fiscal message.]

  11. Re Bemused @66: So what do they do next when they inevitably give up on that one?

    Change the subject. Dogwhistling. Beat up any scandal the Trade Union Royal Commission or their dirt unit can dig up. When it comes to ‘them and us’, Demonise ‘them’. ‘Them’ could be welfare recipients, the ABC, the Arts Community, environmentalists, climate change campaigners…. Once we’re in the election year, selective election bribes (middle class welfare) – maybe something like increasing the private health care rebate.

    They will probably try to breath new life into the boats issue. Maybe Jihadists are the new boats.

    Then of course they could take a leaf from their US Republican colleagues and try a bit of voter suppression.

    And if course, more lies, supported by their media allies.

  12. Rocket

    [I think when Labor next win office the ETS will be like Medicare, the “reincarnation” of Whitlam’s Medibank, and here to stay.]

    I agree with that. It will be here to stay next time and be broadly supported as more and more people understand what it is, why it is important and how it works.

  13. Re RR @68 Yes – if you propose an unpopular measure (say GST) and it eventually gets up, people move on.

    If you have 70% of the media actively campaigning for you (e.g. over the ‘Carbon Tax’) they don’t.

    When the GST was introduced, the Daily Telecrap was running front page headlines ‘Everyone’s a Winner’, emphasising compensation measures. Media bias means issues can be kept alive or buried.

    Still, if budget measures don’t get up, Labor should campaign on the basis of what the Government really wants to do and that you can’t believe anything they say.

  14. Gentle souls who were also woman PM’s etc
    Maggie Thatcher Loved wars and warline speeches and was saved by the folly of the Argentine generals who annezed the Falklands…much singing of “Land of Hope and Glory ”

    Mrs Indira Ghandi…made a kind of war on the Sihks ,who got her in the end … but tore up the contstitution for emergency rule beforehand

    Hilary Clinton ,who is one of the worst of the “liberal intenventionist\”(meaning warlink Democrats,)….a supporter of every war the US indulged in .like her war mad husband ..Remember Kosova.(..that solved problems didn’t it)..and who refused to rule out a war with Iran(who they now desperatly need in Iraq)

    no great recommendation for woman leaders

  15. Stave 777…what next?

    Your are right…Jihardists could be used as the libs once used communism…big danger…hide under the bed and we will protect you

    try anything when desperate
    I thought that on QandA tonight Sarah Henderson Lib MP looked very gloomy and seemed under fire…she may have seen the latest pool..and her Geelong seat of Corangamite is a marginal
    Bye Bye Sarah

  16. When I was a young kid in the fifties Rolf Harris had a spot on a kids’ TV show in WA. Cannel 7, I think, the host was Caroline Noble.

    Anyway, one of his acts was a hand puppet called Oliver the Octopus.

    Looks like the octopus tendencies have followed him throughout his life….

  17. Dragged myself along to my ALP branch meeting tonight after hard EOFY 30 June. Was feeling grumpy about having to go out, but I was feeling angry re: Kevin Andrews and figured it was best for my mental health to go and express that somewhere useful.

    More new members again. More animated discussion about policy than I think I have ever seen, though it has been building steadily over several months now. Still civil of course unless you are a Lib.

    Noticible increase in cameraderie. People more energised than at any time since 2007 and I think more worked up than they were then. We were weary then and prepared at least early on to cop a bit of Howard-lite to be relieved of his government. Policy contrasts have suddenly become more extreme, motivating a broader group of people to want to speak up and do something.

    My branch just about died several times during the past six years. Lots of energy now but. It is going to be fun being in an active branch. New thing for me 🙂

    I might even suggest to a few more people I do business with that they come along.

  18. Just when the voters were coming to understand the Budget. Joe Hockey.

    It seems that they most certainly are.

    And sooooooo good that Kevin Andrews throws his lavish ‘DSP Big Bash’ thus setting up the scenario for the next round of polling.

    Wonder what other magic fairy dust will dazzle us before then.

    Can’t wait!

  19. Deblonay.

    The Geelong crowd seemed rather disapproving of Sarah Henderson.

    Norwester. MOST encouraging. Makes the idea of attending a branch meeting in dark midwinter sound rather appealing.

  20. CW,

    [Norwester. MOST encouraging. Makes the idea of attending a branch meeting in dark midwinter sound rather appealing.]

    Yes – Libs in this area – be afraid! We will give them a local campaign the likes of they haven’t seen for a long time – maybe ever.

    C’mon lurkers. Is this happening elsewhere in the country or have we just copped a funny batch of koolaid here?

  21. Crikey of Geelong
    ( which I know very well,having been born there and lived there off and on…and having a son and grandchildren there)
    Yes the audience had great questions.
    I noticed the loud applause for the man who asked a really tough question of Henderson,and who said he had once been a Liberal candidate
    He would be know to the locals
    She looked very much under street
    Having only won the seat on her second attempt,from Cheeseman the ALP member who was a very bad local member,lazy and dumb..unusual to be so as most MPs work their guts out once there

    She must see it all sliding away now

  22. Andrews attacks on the Disabled will cost them a power of votes…most disabled have families and carers…the whole lot will be worried and angry…more votes lost

    Keep it up Andrews

  23. Deblonay

    I am in South Australia not Geelong, if that is what you meant.

    My niece lives there though. I have so many one of them lives in every place, just about.

  24. Fancy sticking the boot into the disabled and by extension their carers, shelterers, friends, family.

    This might win a few dickhead votes but it sure as hell is going to galvanise some serious opposition. This Andrews reportedly a Christian. What kind of church does he attend? Do his fellow worshippers feel the same way as him? Do they also reckon its fair enough to stick the boot into disabled – and their carers and friends? That is those who at least have someone to care. Poor bastards the others.

    Shame on Andrews and his ilk. Hypocrites. Cowards. People without a moral compass. Black hearts. Dead souls.

  25. Amazing Bludgertrack QLD currently tracking 13.3% higher for L-NP TPP than in Vic. If all other state branches lent one FTE each to QLD Labor from now to next fed election it could become possible to rebuild grass roots local branches that will start to win the bbq and water cooler arguments where it matters.

  26. Mentioning a few women who lead nations into wars does not change the fact that men are the cause of wars. You can speculate all you like on what might happen if women had equal access to power and resources as men, but they don’t and never have. And a few women leaders are not in control of the resources of war. That control of the arms trade, the war trade and the money tied up in war is with men. L

    Look guys, you are just going to have to wear this one. There is not enough sorry in the universe for the violence you perpetrate on women and kids now and have in the past and will do so in the future. You are just all lucky women are not so much into revenge as men. If we were really as into violence as men, do you think any of you would be walking around happy go lucky right now?

    Guytaur, if you keep saying things like, it is mens mothers’ faults that men love war, then I will rename you Bemused the Second.

  27. Bemused
    If you keep responding to posts of mine with which you do not agree by questioning my sanity, my emotional control and accusing me of having delusions, I am going to put you on my STFU list. I gave up putting up with that shit years ago and I am damned if I am going to put up with it here.

    Back off.

  28. It’s obvious that most of the shit in the world is caused by men, as men basically run the joint. To argue otherwise is disingenous at best. I also have little doubt that the world would be a better place if the gender roles were reversed.

  29. Norwester

    [More new members again. More animated discussion about policy than I think I have ever seen, though it has been building steadily over several months now. Still civil of course unless you are a Lib.]

    Encouraged by this feedback. 🙂

  30. It is very curious that the coalition support always improves when Abbott is out of the country. Now that he has been back, the numbers dive again.

  31. A great poll for Labor.

    It will be buried in the media behind other more “sensational” issues today but Abbott cant hide from a -31 approval.

    That’s pretty damning.

    I suspect more Morrison press conferences this week.

  32. [93
    Posted Tuesday, July 1, 2014 at 7:03 am | PERMALINK
    It is very curious that the coalition support always improves when Abbott is out of the country. Now that he has been back, the numbers dive again.]

    Just like Gillard. She was always more popular when not in the country or on holiday.

  33. Morning all. Beautiful set of numbers if you do not like Tony Abbott. And I see that I am not alone in holding that view. Nothing more than what they deserved after that budget, and a farcical world tour.

  34. Forgot to mention I saw Joseph Stiglitz deliver the Joseph Fisher lecture in Adelaide last week. Very good, and clearly demonstrated the economic insanity of current government policy, which he referred to. Full hall too, but no media coverage.

    Have a good day all.

  35. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    “I’m Jake the lag”. Rolf Harris guilty and told to expect prison time.
    So much for what the pink mayor said on QandA last night!
    This precisely the sort of behaviour that Cormann’s and Sonodinis’ (remember him?) desired changes to FoFA will lead to.
    Cormann backtracked quickly on FoFA but still there are questions.
    Morriscums Dark Ops continue. Apparently.
    And Mark Kenny isn’t impressed with Morriscum’s “doughnut logic”.
    Analysis – carbon pricing not a wrecking ball. Well what a surprise!
    Peter Martin has his say on energy and carbon pricing. Very interesting.
    Greg Jericho explains how now Australia and the US are moving in opposite directions when it comes to climate change.

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