Two new poll results this week from Nielsen and Essential Research have contributed to a continuation of the moderating trend of Labor’s post-budget poll lead, which sees the two-party preferred result in BludgerTrack come in at 52.6-47.4, down from 53.5-46.5 last week. The peak reading of 55.0-45.0 was recorded four weeks ago, a fortnight after the May 13 budget. The Coalition also has the lead on the primary vote for the first time in six weeks. Labor retains a reasonably comfortable majority on the seat projection, although the numbers once again illustrate how difficult the model considers the electoral terrain to be for Labor, as the present projection of 79 seats is four fewer than Labor managed with an almost identical two-party preferred vote when Kevin Rudd led it to victory in 2007.
There were some striking results in the state breakdowns in Nielsen this week, and BludgerTrack reflects this in having the swing in New South Wales moderate considerably, cutting their projected seat gain from 11 to seven, while in Victoria the gain is up from four to seven. Further shifts beneath the surface find Labor up a seat in Queensland, but down one in both Western Australia and South Australia. The Nielsen poll also furnishes us with a new set of leadership ratings, which after accounting for the model’s standardisation procedure are almost identical to last week’s results from Newspoll. The movements on last week are accordingly very minor.
Last week I offered a closer look at Palmer United’s polling trend, so this week I thought we’d home in on the Greens. After watching their vote fall from 11.8% at the 2010 election to 8.6% in 2013, polling has shown the party on a steady upward trend, with a short-lived spike occurring in April. While this was partly driven by one outlier result from Nielsen, all of the other polling conducted at that time has them clustered around the high level of 12%. All of these results were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Western Australian Senate election, at which the party’s vote was up from 9.5% to 15.6%. The party’s polling in Western Australia has remained strong, the present BludgerTrack reading of its primary vote being 15.8%. Coincidentally or otherwise, the downward trend that followed the WA election spike coincided exactly with the federal budget.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 5:11 pm | PERMALINK
I can’t help feeling that there is an estate around to be pillaged by all these newly emerging victims of Saville.
I just wonder how they interviewed all those dead bodies for this latest round of sordid allegations.]
There’s one product of Catholicism you can’t defend, GG.
His victims are too numerous. All telling a variation of the same story. And all you care about is money.
Bugger the kids.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@757
That is side-splittingly funny Puff.
‘fantastic’ as in:
[conceived or appearing as if conceived by an unrestrained imagination; odd and remarkable; bizarre; grotesque.]
Sounds about right to me.
It seems old Jimmy buggered more than the kids according to the latest stories. Rover the dog and a plot of pot plants are currently being interviewed.
[I can’t help feeling that there is an estate around to be pillaged by all these newly emerging victims of Saville. I just wonder how they interviewed all those dead bodies for this latest round of sordid allegations.]
GG, you are on a dead-set loser with this one. Leave it alone.
“@ABCNews24: Due to coverage of @Vic_Premier’s speech at the Liberal Party Federal Council @abcgrandstand won’t be shown. Sorry for any inconvenience.”
[The 37 Days…
________
Tonight at 9.30 SBS will feature a BBC doco on the weeks following the assassinations of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand ,and his wife in Sarajevo on June 28 1914,and the way this led to World War !]
It’s actually a drama series rather than a doco, mostly concerned with what was going on at the British Foreign Office, which I watched when it was on the BBC’s equivalent of iView a few months ago.
I found that my hair ended up being a non-essential commodity.
——-
[At last – a dating website for Ayn Rand fans.
http://www.theatlasphere.com/dating ]
I look into my crystal ball, and I see trolls making endless sport of lovelorn Randians.
Just Me,
I hope someone logs on as Howard Rorke.
I see episode one actually aired on SBS last week, and can be viewed on their site:
http://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/276524099642/37-Days-S1-Ep1
psephos,
Rattling cages and puncturing confected outrage is my hobby.
@QandA: #QandA RT @TheHoopla: Newscorp has questions to answer in OZ about the phone hacking trial, says @Wendy_Bacon http://t.co/Al6qxL3qAy (free)
For those who can still read, let me recommend “The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914” by Christopher Clark. Very thorough description and analysis of the months leading up to the outbreak of war. Max Hastings “Catastrophe 1914” is also worth reading, although it’s got a lot more anecdotes and “colour” and goes through to the end of 1914, so it has less detail.
[Rattling cages and puncturing confected outrage is my hobby.]
If you think the outrage about what Saville did is confected, you are sadly deluded. But we already knew that.
I don’t know what to say
[Oliver Milman
Friday 27 June 2014 17.32 EST
The state-owned renewable energy firm Hydro Tasmania has announced it will cut nearly 100 jobs, blaming the repeal of the carbon tax as a factor in its decision.
The company, which generates hydro and wind power and is owned by the Tasmanian government, said it will reduce its 1,092-strong workforce by 9% as a result of “financial and market challenges”.
Hydro Tasmania said the repeal of the carbon tax, uncertainty over the future of the renewable energy target and “softening demand” in the national electricity market forced it to make the cuts.]
http://trib.al/qj2MHO5
lizzie
Don’t worry about it. You haven’t awakened a demon. It’s always there.
But if PBers want I can give a blow by blow description of what it’s like to be sexually abused as an 8-year-old, and my late sister’s experience as a 4-and-a-half-year-old.
And how it affected us.
My sister became anorexic, and a drug addict. I became promiscuous, after the age of 17; and my sister and I helped each other try to understand what had happened to us.
We didn’t adulate celebrities. But we can fully understand why young men and women would do so. And why they found themselves in situations where they had no control over the circumstances, and felt dirty beyond compare later on. They were innocents.
And blamed themselves, rather than where the blame actually lay.
Sexualised children, whatever age, always find it difficult to find their place in life. Always feel dirty. Always feel unworthy.
Some, like Jimmy Saville, prey on others to assuage their feelings of guilt. And are never satisfied.
Others, like me, and my sister, try to prevent our own children from being molested so that they can have a good shot at life.
And that means constant surveillance of our kids. Not helicopter parents, but parents who make sure their kids are never in a situation, at a young impressionable age, where they’re likely to be seduced by another adult or another sexualised child.
The big news in Sydney today was the long blackout at Sydney airport T2 (non-Qantas domestic) which caused huge disruptions to passengers. It was lead story on Ch10 which also pointed out what a lousy company Max-the-Axe runs.
The sale of this airport by Howard looks like one of the grubbiest deals done under privatisation.
Following the below-mentioned report published in New Matilda, the subject of an earlier posting here…
Executive Council ohttps://newmatilda.com/2014/06/27/govt-takes-fresh-steps-block-release-free-speech-docs
I was referred to the Castan Centre, where some of the submissions are published:
http://castancentre.com/2014/06/26/freeing-the-submissions/
I’ve had the time to read some of them and recommend them to bludgers. This is particularly thorough and well-reasoned:
Executive Council of Australian Jewry
http://hrlc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Executive-Council-of-Australian-Jewry.pdf
Psephos,
You are the one claiming Labor wouldn’t pick up Melbourne if there was a 20% TPP swing to Labor. So, I’ll bow to your special knowledge about delusions.
GG,
Perhaps in your world outrage at Saville, Harris, the Catholic Church, the Salvation Army and their ilk needs to be manufactured. It might surprise you to know that some of us feel genuine anger at these repugnant human beings.
sohar
[Perhaps in your world outrage at Saville, Harris, the Catholic Church, the Salvation Army and their ilk needs to be manufactured. It might surprise you to know that some of us feel genuine anger at these repugnant human beings.]
Hear hear!
sohar & MTBW
Hear hear as well.
Not to mention odius organisations such as the Salvation Army who I will NEVER again donate to.
JG is to be commended for the RC.
sohar,
I’m sure you are very happy in your comfortable middle class anger. The great thing is that feeling repugnant and expressing your distaste is all you’ll ever have to do about the matter.
Someone has probably also noted this here, but today marks exactly one year since Kevin Rudd toppled Julia Gillard as Prime Minister. In some ways it seems like just yesterday and in other ways an age.
Now we have Tony Abbott as PM, who as turned out to be far worse than I feared. I’d have been happy if either Rudd or Gillard had continued as PM. It will take many years to undo the Abbott legacy.
Anyhow, I’m off to the pub. The salvos come in on Friday nights. I think I’ll double my weekly donation tonight.
WhigParty
[Fran Barlow: Your people should remember that screaming “bigot” and “racist” at the masses is not a good way of winning hearts and minds. ]
This is wrong all over the place. Firstly, we don’t go about screaming bigot and racist at the masses. We explain how existing policies on, for example, asylum seekers, are an attempt to foster racism and trade on xenophobia and ignorance. Whether people see themselves described by that is for them to reflect upon.
Secondly, the hearts and minds we want to win are those who are repulsed by bigotry and racism. It has never been our wish to recruit reactionaries, and I’d much sooner we didn’t. Having a firmly humanist and humanitarian stance is a great help in keeping away those who might try to take our party in directions we wouldn’t agree with.
[If you want Pauline Hanson back or someone of her illk, than trying to force the masses to accept left wing orthodoxy is just the way to do it.]
We have never tried forcing anyone to accept anything we say. We argue policy, like anyone who takes ideas seriously.
GG
You are reprehensible!
It’s one thing to get angry with Saville, justified, however, what of those who enabled his activities?
For those of you who can still read and who still have the ability to pay, a rattling good review.
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n23/thomas-laqueur/some-damn-foolish-thing
[It will take many years to undo the Abbott legacy.]
I’m hoping not, seeing as the Abbott agenda isn’t based on any evidenced-based policy or even policy in the national interest, but blatant ideology.
If Saville was evil, was his evil banal?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eichmann_in_Jerusalem
Dee:
Yes that’s true, and not just those who enabled his deeds (whoever they may have been), but those who knew it was going on and did SFA to stop it.
We had our NAIDOC assembly at school today. It was marked by an indigenous student giving a pitch perfect rendition of Advance Australia Fare in the Darawul (sp?) language.
I didn’t understand a word of it, but it actually sounded more mellifluous than the orthodox rendition, and my impression of the assembly was that the kids — indigenous and non-indigenous — paid a lot more attention than they normally would have. There was a fair bit of embracing of the indigenous kids after too.
Great stuff.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 5:50 pm | PERMALINK
Anyhow, I’m off to the pub. The salvos come in on Friday nights. I think I’ll double my weekly donation tonight.]
I notice your inability, as a Catholic, to acknowledge sexual abuse within the congregation – by believers to believers.
And you’d rather thumb your nose at the extent of sexual abuse by the institutions – namely, in this instance, the Salvation Army – by saying you’ll gladly increase your donation to them.
As if the RC into institutional sexual abuse was just a fantasy. With liars peeking out from every corner.
I wonder how you would feel if it was one of your daughters or sons who’d suffered such abuse.
Would you be happy to hear someone laud the fact they’re happy to trot off to donate to an organisation that covered up the abuse?
Or would you be resigned, just like I am, at the ignorance that begets the happening of such abuse in the first place.
Don’t answer. Enjoy your double contribution to the acceptance of sexual abuse of kids.
Boerwar
A “War and Peace” length review but very good.May well get the book after reading it.
citizen
“The sale of this airport by Howard looks like one of the grubbiest deals done under privatisation.”
So grubby that Max said he didn’t attend the cabinet meeting when privatisation was discussed … Obvious Q.. if it was above board & he had nothing to gain how did he know NOT to attend…Corrupt Liberals as usual… Mx you had better leave the room while work out how to make a fortune for the Banks & get you a cushy job commensurate with your talents.
[Sir Jimmy Savile’s nephew was taken by Savile to child abuse parties.
“He said children as young as ten would disappear into bedrooms with men…”.
“Guy Marsden was just 13 when ‘Uncle Jimmy’ took him to a wealthy celebrity’s house in London in 1967 for the first of many sordid social gatherings.]
[Over the next 18 months, Guy and his friends went to numerous ‘parties’ where he believes men sexually abused girls and boys as young as ten.”
Savile was at many of these parties, he said.]
[Guy said Savile sometimes arrived with a man dressed as a priest and he believed the young victims may have come from an orphanage or children’s home.”]
Dee
Sickening!
Those who pray tend to prey.
[For those of you who can still read and who still have the ability to pay, a rattling good review.]
Yes, very good. But I didn’t have to pay.
Dee.
How is it possible that all this disgusting behaviour could go on for so many years without being exposed?
[You are the one claiming Labor wouldn’t pick up Melbourne if there was a 20% TPP swing to Labor. So, I’ll bow to your special knowledge about delusions.]
Antony Green’s blog post about Melbourne prior to the election specifically noted that it is one seat where one shouldn’t try and map a uniform swing onto it; it dances to the beat of its own drum were the words he used IIRC.
Anyway Psephos didn’t say that Melbourne definitely wouldn’t fall, just that a 20% 2PP swing wouldn’t guarantee it falling.
Weird to cone in here and see Psephos (kind of) defending the Greens :-p
Dee @ 886
That’s sickening. What needs to come out of this RC here in Australia and the investigation in the UK are names NAMED and brought to justice … and not allowed to take the easy way out by suicide.
I suspect many ‘celebrities’ and others in ‘high office’ have cases to answer … and serious hard jail time to face.
[Dee
Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 5:54 pm | PERMALINK
It’s one thing to get angry with Saville, justified, however, what of those who enabled his activities?]
Yeah, we often hear of all the people who were told about it, and laughed it off.
Waved it away, dismissed it.
Yet, you have to wonder why some of them didn’t come to the conclusion that something must have been happening considering the numerous complaints.
On the other hand, when I was working at a place in Collingwood I was in my very early 30s. A Mr Ron Brierly was introduced to our workplace. He had just bought the company.
He addressed the workforce, some 30 of us. And left us with his hand-picked manager.
He was the creepiest bloke you’d ever come across. Very good looking, though.
For the following week this bloke stood behind my workstation and made sexual innuendo-type jokes. At my expense.
It didn’t matter that I told him I was uncomfortable, that I didn’t like what he was saying, nor did it matter that I threatened to tell my ‘old’ boss about his behaviour.
He moved on to a colleague, the only other female in the place. She, too, complained.
He brushed it all aside, and claimed innocence.
We later learned he was up on charges of sexual harrassment.
At his court case, he was given a slap over the wrist.
And his boss, Mr Ron Brierley? He was later anointed Sir Ron – after he closed down the business a week later, and threw 30 of us out of work.
Ron Brierley knew the manager he installed was a sexual predator. He knew he was on charges. Yet, he did nothing about it.
If the boss won’t do anything, then how can we expect people who need a job to do anything about it?
I lost a job, took it to an unfair dismissal hearing even, when I stuck up for some younger employees being unfairly treated – nothing to do with sexual harrassment.
How much more difficult would it be for a person to be working with a celebrity to report inappropriate behaviour?
Good to see Christopher Clark doing well with his latest book. Are you all aware that he is an Aussie? Graduate of Sydney Uni circa 1982-3?
[Ruddy was a Labor legend of a PM who campaigned magnificently to defeat the baddies hero John Howard, and Julia Gillard was our outstanding first ever female PM – both DESTROYED by the L-OO-NY Greens.
Bludgers go for that one!]
No thanks. I wouldn’t want to tarnish rational ALP supporters with the views of a nominal ALP supporter who seems happy lining up with a Boltista view of the world.
[child abuse parties]
Like I said before: sick f*cks.
And why didn’t those who knew it was happening, or even suspect it was happening act on it?
Child Abuse Royal Commission
There is a disturbing trend with accused organisations from the Catholic Church to the Salvos trying to protect their assets form just compensation claims.
Better they go totally broke before the Government / tax payer contributes to compensation.. Vicarious Liability or no Vicarious Liability.
Can’t wait for Pell’s reappearance before the RC, hope they have to sell their Cathedrals.
MTBW
Sickening doesn’t even come close.
Jeez, I can’t believe there are people here still fighting the Rudd Gillard wars.
Morons.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone as deep in denial about anything as GG is about this. If he thinks his flippant remarks about Saville reflect badly on anyone but himself he really is delusional. How much of this can be blamed on his Catholicism I can’t say. Not all Catholics are this deluded.