Two new poll results this week from Nielsen and Essential Research have contributed to a continuation of the moderating trend of Labor’s post-budget poll lead, which sees the two-party preferred result in BludgerTrack come in at 52.6-47.4, down from 53.5-46.5 last week. The peak reading of 55.0-45.0 was recorded four weeks ago, a fortnight after the May 13 budget. The Coalition also has the lead on the primary vote for the first time in six weeks. Labor retains a reasonably comfortable majority on the seat projection, although the numbers once again illustrate how difficult the model considers the electoral terrain to be for Labor, as the present projection of 79 seats is four fewer than Labor managed with an almost identical two-party preferred vote when Kevin Rudd led it to victory in 2007.
There were some striking results in the state breakdowns in Nielsen this week, and BludgerTrack reflects this in having the swing in New South Wales moderate considerably, cutting their projected seat gain from 11 to seven, while in Victoria the gain is up from four to seven. Further shifts beneath the surface find Labor up a seat in Queensland, but down one in both Western Australia and South Australia. The Nielsen poll also furnishes us with a new set of leadership ratings, which after accounting for the model’s standardisation procedure are almost identical to last week’s results from Newspoll. The movements on last week are accordingly very minor.
Last week I offered a closer look at Palmer United’s polling trend, so this week I thought we’d home in on the Greens. After watching their vote fall from 11.8% at the 2010 election to 8.6% in 2013, polling has shown the party on a steady upward trend, with a short-lived spike occurring in April. While this was partly driven by one outlier result from Nielsen, all of the other polling conducted at that time has them clustered around the high level of 12%. All of these results were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Western Australian Senate election, at which the party’s vote was up from 9.5% to 15.6%. The party’s polling in Western Australia has remained strong, the present BludgerTrack reading of its primary vote being 15.8%. Coincidentally or otherwise, the downward trend that followed the WA election spike coincided exactly with the federal budget.
Through some of my gay friends I know at least two Melbourne television ‘persons’ who have questionable behaviour in regards to certain activities. The two channels refuse to do ANYTHING about it and there is a core of people in Melbourne that will do anything to protect these scum regardless of their ‘talent’ and ability to read the ‘news’
Dee:
Do you have a link to the quote you posted above?
kezza2
Ah yes , Sir Ron one of the pioneer asset strippers. Closing down your workplace was likely plan A from the start. It was his style . No need to care about what the bastard manager did.
Dee
What comeback would a young child have in these circumstances?
The friends and acquaintances of these terrible people must have known what was happening why would they not report it.
Living the high life I guess would necessitate not saying anything I suppose.
Shameful shameful people with no morals no ethics and no consideration for the abused.
No wonder the Catholic Churches and others are empty and yes I am a Catholic as is all of my family – shame on them!
Confessions
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2213636/Uncle-Jimmy-took-sick-parties-Nephew-tells-childhood-stolen-13.html#ixzz28V6p6JTy
William Bowe@856
Its streaming here as well for those who don’t want to wait until 9:30 –
http://vodlocker.com/tmhkkcbusbua
[We have never tried forcing anyone to accept anything we say. We argue policy, like anyone who takes ideas seriously.]
One of the most glaring double standards about the Greens as a political party is that when they say “this is our policy and we think it is better than everyone else’s” they are criticised as being superior and condescending, as if somehow the ALP and the Libs don’t also get up in public and say “this is our policy and we think it is better than everyone else’s”.
Thanks Dee.
I see Commissioner Negus is getting out of the kitchen before the Senate looks into wheat for weapons again.
Martin B@907
The difference between the Green’s policies and the other parties policies is that the Green’s policies don’t have to be tempered with even an iota of pragmatism, since they know they will never, ever be called on to actually put them into practice. They are therefore free to make them as “ideologically pure” (aka “loony”) as they like.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 5:50 pm | Permalink
Anyhow, I’m off to the pub. The salvos come in on Friday nights. I think I’ll double my weekly donation tonight.]
So still nothing then GG
The loony ones, IMHO, are the right wing Coalition, who have so many policies that are illogical or have been proved wrong many times.
lizzie@912
Can’t argue that one. The LNP have certainly managed to out-loony even the Greens in recent policies – Direct Action and PPL being just the most obvious two!
[Psephos
Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 6:39 pm | PERMALINK
I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone as deep in denial about anything as GG is about this.]
Me either, or is that me, neither.
My dad was 70 years of age, a devout Catholic, and his brother, my uncle, a Jesuit priest, when he asked me if my uncle had abused me as a child.
I was speechless.
Yet, it was 1994, I was 40, and sexual abuse by the Catholic clergy had just become the topic de jour.
Dad knew that he’d left us in his brother’s care on numerous occasions. He also knew that my sister and I had been sexually abused. But he didn’t know by whom. He hadn’t cared to know all those years.
But, suddenly, he wanted to know.
I was able to assure him it wasn’t his brother, my uncle.
Yet, here was a bloke who hadn’t been able to talk to me or my sister about the abuse we’d suffered, but was willing to believe it could have been his brother.
He’d been unable to cope with what had happened to two of his daughters. And suddenly he was outraged. And was prepared to believe anything.
I find GG’s denial sad.
The worst thing is the tentacles of sexual abuse were far more reaching than what happened in the privacy of the sacristy or the presbytery.
Those abused altar boys went on to abuse other children in scouts, football, netball, all sorts of areas where kids assembled.
I don’t think GG is delusional. He’s like my father, he didn’t want to know, and still doesn’t want to know.
Maybe he not yet 70.
Actually, I disapprove of the word “loony” and shouldn’t have used it myself.
Bw
[who still have the ability to pay, a rattling good review.]
The London Review of Books sticks to its tradition i.e. the possibility that the review may be as long as the book or even longer.
[poroti
Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 6:43 pm | PERMALINK
kezza2
Ah yes , Sir Ron one of the pioneer asset strippers.]
Why do I always associate him with Chris Corrigan?
[CTar1
Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 7:03 pm | Permalink
Bw
who still have the ability to pay, a rattling good review.
The London Review of Books sticks to its tradition i.e. the possibility that the review may be as long as the book or even longer.]
Yeah. About half way through I was starting to wonder whether, had I been the author, I would have been a tad peeved with the reviewer telling everyone how the story ends.
CTar1
[the possibility that the review may be as long as the book or even longer.]
+1 and probably on occasion better written . Shocking news from the old dart , news that will produce much harrumphing from the military chaps at clubs various, the chief of the defence staff is no longer allowed to live at Kensington Palace.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/10928817/Britains-armed-forces-will-be-like-a-banana-republics-if-MoD-keeps-cutting-costs-says-ex-CDS-Lord-Richards.html
Hey fess
Hope I didn’t upset you the other night by telling you I’m beginning to think of you as Mrs Bale.
I logged out, and haven’t been back since, so don’t know if you replied.
Mrs Bale – of “As Time Goes By” fame – was famous for her weather reports on the English Channel.
Was a fun jibe.
kezza2
Birds of the same feather.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 8m
#ReachTEL Poll Seat of Fairfax: PUP 17.7 (-8.8 compared to election) LNP 44.0 (+2.6) ALP 20.2 (+2.0) #auspol]
kezza:
I had no idea why you were making the comparison, but didn’t take offence cause I guessed it would be some left field analogy.
[Shocking news from the old dart , news that will produce much harrumphing from the military chaps at clubs various, the chief of the defence staff is no longer allowed to live at Kensington Palace.]
When I was in Canberra it was the view of Senior Naval Chaps I spoke with that once the new LHDs are in service, the RAN will have more actual operational capacity than the Royal Navy.
[I can’t help feeling that there is an estate around to be pillaged by all these newly emerging victims of Saville. I just wonder how they interviewed all those dead bodies for this latest round of sordid allegations.]
Pathetic.
[poroti
Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 7:14 pm | PERMALINK
kezza2
Birds of the same feather.]
Oh, thanks. Both asset-strippers?
I thought the two of them might have been involved in the Patricks dispute.
Psephos
Mind you them pomgolians have had several centuries of practical and ruthless experience which would count in actual “action” . That and real live nuclear missiles to launch from their submarines.
P
It is hard to see this on the raw numbers – even if you stick to conventional forces.
The only ‘superiority’ will be in the raw number of LHDs. The RN would still maintain a higher number of sea-bourne helos because of the larger number of destroyers and frigates.
They would have to be ignoring the nuclear submarines as well as ignoring the tac nukes otherwise deployed by the RN.
Plus also the RN has many, many more admirals than does the RAN.
Did the Naval Chap miss Royal Navys 10 nuclear powered subs with nuclear missiles onboard?
I could go on.
I am curious many of the comments of hate and repulsion have been very broad but at the same time vague.
Do ‘we’ find all of the Salvation Army evil and repugnant? If not which bits escape condemnation and on what ?
kezza2
They may well have been .By the time Patricks came around Ron had made his money and was working on being respectable. The bastardry when it came to workers would fit with Ron though.
ELECTROCUTION
Earlier today I read a story about a young woman in the Campsie area of NSW who had apparently been electrocuted by “rip-off USB-style chargers” – and then later there was a news report of a young man electrocuted in Melbourne.
Wow, I thought. Maybe the two are connected.
Not so. The young man in Melbourne was electrocuted on top of a train.
What can you say, except it’s very hard to understand, as a mother, if not a father, why young men are such risk-takers.
The young woman was apparently hooked up to her laptop via headphones.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/warning-over-usb-chargers-after-woman-dies-from-apparent-electrocution-20140626-zsngd.html
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/man-electrocuted-at-balaclava-train-station-20140627-zsomz.html
Boys, if at all possible, please listen. Please stop thinking you’re immortal. You leave a lot of heartbreak behind.
Operationally the UK’s nukes are useless in any scenario short of Armageddon. If they want to go on being a serious naval power, they should get rid of them and spend the money on ships.
153 people on a boat from India…
[Another man who spoke Tamil came to the phone, saying: ‘‘We have come to Christmas Island because we don’t have anything. We have travelled all the way from India.’’
‘‘The boat is damaged. It is leaking,’’ he said. ‘‘There are children, including infants and we are unable to manage.’’
Asylum seekers on board the boat say they were given rice and fish by Indonesian fishing boats.
No vessel carrying asylum seekers has successfully reached Australian shores since December 19.
This boat will likely pose a major challenge to the government’s turn-back policy, given it has not departed from Indonesia nor stopped to pick up supplies anywhere closer to Australia during its two-week journey.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tamil-asylum-seeker-boat-reportedly-off-christmas-island-20140627-zsoy7.html
[Operationally the UK’s nukes are useless in any scenario short of Armageddon. If they want to go on being a serious naval power, they should get rid of them and spend the money on ships.]
Tell that to the Argentinians. Capital ship 0, Nuke Sub 1.
[If not which bits escape condemnation and on what ?]
Perhaps “the bits” which weren’t perpetrating, aiding or abetting child abuse?
FFS, drawing ethical (and legal for that matter) lines in the sand on this shit ain’t hard. Or at least it ought not to be.
And if folk decide that the stuff that’s come to light over the Salvos is a deal breaker as far as donating their own hard earned is concerned, then that’s the way the cookie crumbles. Blowback is blowback after all, and even those entities affiliated with religious institutions ought not to think they’re immune from the forces of consumer oriented choice.
You want to get in the faces of the public over their choices, then the way I see it you got two options open to you: deal, or STFU with your carping lest you open yourself up to further scorn and ridicule.
When it comes to what the RN can and can’t do our CTar1 is the resident expert.
poroti
[The bastardry, when it came to workers, would fit with Ron though.]
Exactly.
It’s the corporate bastards like Ron Brierley who made their money by asset-stripping, and throwing a very capable workforce out the door, who were are at the heart of the GFC.
The bastards who didn’t give a fuck about the families who were also thrown on the scrap heap while they scrapped the business and sold-off anything and everything that could be moved. And then shut the doors, and did a Pontius Pilate.
While reaping a multi-thousand, if not multi-million dividend.
These bastards, later knighted for their works, for their ability to make money from nothing, were the so-called conservatives of the 1990s. Members of the Melbourne Club, bastion of conservatism.
I noted meher baba bemoaning the trashing of the moniker “conservative” – yet this was conservatism in action.
The maintenance of the status quo – keep the money with the privileged. That’s the sole definition of conservatism.
poroti
Not bothering to comment. I think you, BW & rua have it covered.
[Liberal Federal Council elects Richard Alston as new president]
Generational change. 😆
[Green’s policies don’t have to be tempered with even an iota of pragmatism, since they know they will never, ever be called on to actually put them into practice.]
This is a rather dated view. The interim CO2 price was a Greens policy, and it was implemented by the Comonwealth of Australia; as was their public dental health plan.
Beyond that, GRNs policies feature in proportional jurisdictons in TAS, ACT when they are in govt wth the ALP. In thhe former they had Ministers until the last election.
Try to keep it real.
[FFS, drawing ethical (and legal for that matter) lines in the sand on this shit ain’t hard. Or at least it ought not to be]
I agree completely but given the level of abuse particularly at GG I would have thought someone might have had the intelligence and insight to realize making few of those lines explicit might reduce the risk of being mistaken for an irrational crazy person.
[Blowback is blowback after all, and even those entities affiliated with religious institutions ought not to think they’re immune from the forces of consumer oriented choice.]
again I agree completely but like with voters completely irrational morons get to be consumers.
The overwhelming sentiment here seems to be that anyone who prays has a tendency to be a pedophile, and that any organization that has ever been unfortunate enough to have had a pedophile join it deserves immediate bankruptcy regardless of culpability which seems to be assumed. Doesn’t appear to involve much rational thought at all, let alone moral and legal lines in the sand.
But I’m a caring generous kindhearted person who doesn’t like to assume people are posting moronic rubbish thus my question – which seemed quite fair to me.
[…as was their public dental health plan.]
Please explain?
[WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 7:29 pm | PERMALINK
I am curious many of the comments of hate and repulsion have been very broad but at the same time vague.]
I don’t think the hatred and repulsion of child sexual abuse has been at all “broad but at the same time vague.”
It’s been very acute.
And, as fess has so eloquently put, it is not difficult to draw a line in the sand where one stands ethically.
Maybe you have a difficulty with that?
Perhaps you think child abuse is okay, is that it?
If not, then don’t shit on everyone’s intelligence, least not your own.
LIbs celebrate lower house passing CO2 Price removal.
LOL
https://twitter.com/geeksrulz/status/482363054428942336/
[Please explain?]
http://greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/better-dental-care-millions-australians
[Tell that to the Argentinians. Capital ship 0, Nuke Sub 1.]
I said the nukes were useless, not the subs. Anyway, that was 30 years ago. There’s been a lot of declining since then.
[Liberal Federal Council elects Richard Alston as new president
Generational change.]
Form old fart to an even older fart!
All of the RN’s 10 subs are nuclear powered, all conventional weapon capable.
Four also nuclear weapon capable.
Psephos
Do you have authority to change the source of your webpage?