BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate points to a continuing deflation of the post-budget Labor poll blowout, and reallocates a chunk of the Labor swing from New South Wales to Victoria.

Two new poll results this week from Nielsen and Essential Research have contributed to a continuation of the moderating trend of Labor’s post-budget poll lead, which sees the two-party preferred result in BludgerTrack come in at 52.6-47.4, down from 53.5-46.5 last week. The peak reading of 55.0-45.0 was recorded four weeks ago, a fortnight after the May 13 budget. The Coalition also has the lead on the primary vote for the first time in six weeks. Labor retains a reasonably comfortable majority on the seat projection, although the numbers once again illustrate how difficult the model considers the electoral terrain to be for Labor, as the present projection of 79 seats is four fewer than Labor managed with an almost identical two-party preferred vote when Kevin Rudd led it to victory in 2007.

There were some striking results in the state breakdowns in Nielsen this week, and BludgerTrack reflects this in having the swing in New South Wales moderate considerably, cutting their projected seat gain from 11 to seven, while in Victoria the gain is up from four to seven. Further shifts beneath the surface find Labor up a seat in Queensland, but down one in both Western Australia and South Australia. The Nielsen poll also furnishes us with a new set of leadership ratings, which after accounting for the model’s standardisation procedure are almost identical to last week’s results from Newspoll. The movements on last week are accordingly very minor.

Last week I offered a closer look at Palmer United’s polling trend, so this week I thought we’d home in on the Greens. After watching their vote fall from 11.8% at the 2010 election to 8.6% in 2013, polling has shown the party on a steady upward trend, with a short-lived spike occurring in April. While this was partly driven by one outlier result from Nielsen, all of the other polling conducted at that time has them clustered around the high level of 12%. All of these results were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Western Australian Senate election, at which the party’s vote was up from 9.5% to 15.6%. The party’s polling in Western Australia has remained strong, the present BludgerTrack reading of its primary vote being 15.8%. Coincidentally or otherwise, the downward trend that followed the WA election spike coincided exactly with the federal budget.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,028 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 21
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  1. [ rossmcg

    Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    Richard Alston … Another Tory with a combover. He will be right at home with Abbott and his mates newman and Murray.

    Either face up to the fact you are bald or spend the money ( and I am sure he has heaps) and get a really good rug.]

    —————————————————-

    There is no such thing as a good comb-over – especially the “Alston Special” – one that starts from the left armpit to just above the right ear

  2. [Tesla believed that renewable energy sources like hydroelectric, solar, and wind power were the future. This is remarkable because in the 1890s there was no such thing as “going green,” so Tesla’s ideas on conservation were very forward-thinking at the time.]

    And he didn’t just advocate it: Telsa built the world’s first hydro plant, at Niagara, in the 1890s.

  3. Julia Gillard was a fantastic PM who was whiteanted by Rudd until he destroyed an exciting ALP government]

    Ahh but this is untrue. However what is true is Rudd saved thousands of families from misery and unemployment keeping Aust. Out of recession to be rewarded by a gillard back stab to satisfy the desires of factional warlords…and consequently bought disaster on Labor.

  5. Mr Muir is leaning Senate quickly.

    [The Australian understands that Mr Muir plans to vote against the carbon tax repeal bills unless the Abbott government supports the automotive transformation scheme.]

  6. Richard Alston was Communications Minister in the dot com boom in the late last century. There was negative commentary towards the Howard government that they were clueless when it came to supporting the emerging IT industry.

    He set up NOIE – National Office of the Information Economy.

    When asked what they did, he said “When we are asked what we are doing about dot com, I can say we have 400 bastards down there working on it”.

    True story.

  7. TP, seriously… ahh, I’m out. Enjoy your weekends, and cheer hard for the young Kyrgios #NKRising

  8. Pshephos

    Since you’re about, may I suggest something to improve your most impressive psephos blog.

    Looks like you’re into css, but your staggering amount of information would be eminently more readable if you didn’t use #000066 as a background colour.

    If you really want blue then I’d suggest a pastel shade rather than the midnight hue.

    And, the headline 3 doesn’t seem to be working too well either.

    These are not criticisms, rather constructive suggestions for a better webpage experience.

    Cheers.

  9. Re Whig Party @760: of course most Liberal and National Party voters aren’t bigots, including those who switched to the Dark Side in 2010 and 2013. But most bigots vote for those parties. The Liberal party and its media allies have put a in a lot of effort since the Howard years to cultivate their votes.

  10. I heard Abbott say today that there is one billion dollars set aside already in the budget for the Automotive transformation fund

  15. victoria

    Yes that was Mr Abbott’s response. Mr Muir may have got in their by dodgy means but if he stands up for jobs in the car industry as he seems to be doing I think thats good.

    I just hope that the Australian analysis is right and the Abbott repeal still gets voted down. Not holding my breath of course.

  16. [794
    BK

    rossmcg
    The liberation of having the first #1 haircut is amazing.

    795
    rossmcg

    Bk

    I go the No.2 myself, but I have still got plenty.]

    I settled on #4 myself, a few years back. Never regretted losing the ponytail et al, especially in the hot humid tropics. Just so much easier to manage.

  18. [ Libertarian Unionist

    And he didn’t just advocate it: Telsa built the world’s first hydro plant, at Niagara, in the 1890s.
    ]

    ———————————-

    Thanks LU – obviously a fellow TESLA fan 🙂 ……

  21. GG

    I was not attacking JSavile. The analysis is by a professional, who is encouraging understanding of such conditions. You don’t have to read it.

  23. [lizzie
    Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 4:38 pm | PERMALINK
    In case anyone would like to understand the motivation and the unhappiness.]
    I’d say sex addict. Sexualised at a very young age. Inappropriate behaviour ignored or rewarded.

  24. [These are not criticisms, rather constructive suggestions for a better webpage experience.]

    The Psephos website is now 15 years old and I’m aware that it needs a complete redesign. It’s on my very long list of things to do.

  26. [lizzie
    Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 4:46 pm | PERMALINK
    GG

    I was not attacking JSavile. The analysis is by a professional, who is encouraging understanding of such conditions. You don’t have to read it.]

    Oops, lizzie

    Saville was raised a Catholic. No wonder GG’s rushing in to defend the indefensible.

  27. [Bernard Keane ‏
    so now that you’ve become a little footnote in the squalid history of climate denialism, @GregHuntMP, have you any other life goals?]

  29. psephos
    [The Psephos website is now 15 years old and I’m aware that it needs a complete redesign. It’s on my very long list of things to do.]
    No, I’m not suggesting you redesign your website.

    I’m suggesting the background colour #000066 makes your newest entries very hard to read.

    I assume you have control over the source?

    The olive green is fine. You just need to adjust the midnight blue colour.

  30. Psephos

    If you use Apple wait a few weeks the new Yosemite OSX from Apple has a good addition for creating webpages. It was shown on the WWDC keynote.

  31. I was in the uk in 2012 when the Saville scandal blew up.

    Amazing the number of people who defended him, even as the evidence mounted.

    It seems that doing good works was the perfect cover for a truly bad egg.

    Sounds familiar.

  33. Seems the Clean Energy Regulator is setting up its own market.

    [Today we have released for public consultation an exposure draft of the Carbon Abatement Contract to be used for the Emissions Reduction Fund and an accompanying discussion paper. ]

    [We will use the contract to purchase Kyoto Australian carbon credit units from successful bidders in Emissions Reduction Fund auctions.]

    A bit of The Contract.

    [This Contract is made between:
    CLEAN ENERGY REGULATOR, a Commonwealth entity established under the Clean Energy
    Regulator Act 2011 (Cth), on behalf of the COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA, ABN 72 321 984
    210 (Buyer)
    AND
    Each person named in Item 1 of the Schedule (collectively, Seller)

    Recitals
    A. The Buyer conducted a Carbon Abatement Purchasing Process on the date specified in
    Item 3 of the Schedule in accordance with the CFI Act for purchasing, on behalf of the
    Commonwealth, Agreed Units.
    B. The Seller participated in the Carbon Abatement Purchasing Process in relation to the
    Project and offered to sell the Contract Quantity to the Buyer at the Unit Price.
    C. The Seller’s offer at the Carbon Abatement Purchasing Process was declared successful
    by the Buyer.
    D. The Seller wishes to sell, and the Buyer wishes to purchase, the Contract Quantity upon
    the terms and conditions of this Carbon Abatement Contract (Contract). ]

    http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/About-us/news-and-updates/Pages/2014-06/27-June-2014-Exposure-draft-Carbon-Abatement-Contract-and-discussion-paper-released-for-public-consultation.aspx

  37. [Tony Abbott has now simply met a bigger, badder, bolder version of himself. Yet Clive’s ‘live for the moment’ chutzpah is even tougher than his own to deal with, because Palmer is never going to be in government and therefore will never be forced into the embarrassing and politically destructive backdowns the Government has had to make since coming to office.

    Clive can simply make it up as he goes along, with the most random group of senators and supporters we’ve possibly ever seen.

    When a previously right-wing coal billionaire stands next to Al Gore, darling of the global environmental movement, to announce action on climate change, things have got seriously messy.

    It’s a massive square-up on Abbott, who wants no meaningful action on climate change.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-27/barnett-the-dark-arts-of-the-square-up/5555458

  38. [It seems that doing good works was the perfect cover for a truly bad egg.]

    Aye, just look at all the sick f*cks whose heinous abuses were covered up by churches.

  41. [lizzie
    Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 4:56 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza2

    Do read it.]

    Oh, so it was his mother’s fault. How unremarkable.

    Nothing to do with the fact he was looked after by the nuns when he was two years old, when he had pneumonia, and his mother was caring for six of his older siblings.

    And he was forever trying to gain her affections, by getting his load off on anything that came by? Fingering, slobbering, penetrating. Sure. Sounds reasonable.

    Even to @#%^ing dead people.

    That works for me.

  43. I can’t help feeling that there is an estate around to be pillaged by all these newly emerging victims of Saville.

    I just wonder how they interviewed all those dead bodies for this latest round of sordid allegations.

  44. [I go the No.2 myself, but I have still got plenty.]

    I am a no. 3 on the sides, No.6 on top (with an artistic flourish of the trimming scissors at the front) man.

    My barber say my hair grows like parsley.

    I think he means he has a job for life (MY life, that is).

  46. kezza

    Saville turned out the way he did by a combination of factors of which we will never know what was environment what was genetic

    I find the speculation a bit much as its the reverse of the denial for all those years that let him get away with it.

    Its society avoiding looking at what it should have done to prevent the access of this predator to his victims.

  49. The 37 Days…
    ________
    Tonight at 9.30 SBS will feature a BBC doco on the weeks following the assassinations of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand ,and his wife in Sarajevo on June 28 1914,and the way this led to World War !
    Tomorrow June 28 is the 100 Anniversary of the event in Sarajevo

    I have just read a new history of the events by a major UK historian Prof Clark.,called The Sleepwalkers” which details that month long period in which the folly of all the European leaders,led to the Austrian attack on Serbia and then lead to the Russian attack on Austrla…which lead to the chain of events which then involved Germany.France and the UK,

    This weekend will see various events in Europe to mark the event

    Another work worth reading after the Clark book ,is
    “The Collapse of the Old Order” by a US historian Edmond Taylor,who looks at the events in Europe following the 1917 Russian Revolution and the later revolutions in Germany and Austria in Nov. 1918,and the effects of these on Europe in the post war period

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