Two new poll results this week from Nielsen and Essential Research have contributed to a continuation of the moderating trend of Labor’s post-budget poll lead, which sees the two-party preferred result in BludgerTrack come in at 52.6-47.4, down from 53.5-46.5 last week. The peak reading of 55.0-45.0 was recorded four weeks ago, a fortnight after the May 13 budget. The Coalition also has the lead on the primary vote for the first time in six weeks. Labor retains a reasonably comfortable majority on the seat projection, although the numbers once again illustrate how difficult the model considers the electoral terrain to be for Labor, as the present projection of 79 seats is four fewer than Labor managed with an almost identical two-party preferred vote when Kevin Rudd led it to victory in 2007.
There were some striking results in the state breakdowns in Nielsen this week, and BludgerTrack reflects this in having the swing in New South Wales moderate considerably, cutting their projected seat gain from 11 to seven, while in Victoria the gain is up from four to seven. Further shifts beneath the surface find Labor up a seat in Queensland, but down one in both Western Australia and South Australia. The Nielsen poll also furnishes us with a new set of leadership ratings, which after accounting for the model’s standardisation procedure are almost identical to last week’s results from Newspoll. The movements on last week are accordingly very minor.
Last week I offered a closer look at Palmer United’s polling trend, so this week I thought we’d home in on the Greens. After watching their vote fall from 11.8% at the 2010 election to 8.6% in 2013, polling has shown the party on a steady upward trend, with a short-lived spike occurring in April. While this was partly driven by one outlier result from Nielsen, all of the other polling conducted at that time has them clustered around the high level of 12%. All of these results were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Western Australian Senate election, at which the party’s vote was up from 9.5% to 15.6%. The party’s polling in Western Australia has remained strong, the present BludgerTrack reading of its primary vote being 15.8%. Coincidentally or otherwise, the downward trend that followed the WA election spike coincided exactly with the federal budget.
Personally I don’t think there’s anything logical which can be drawn from the intended votes of the micro party Senators.
@billshortenmp: Labor wants a serious response to climate change – Tony Abbott is leaving Australia doing nothing at all. http://t.co/tMOPnFa8t9
@JenBrockie: Warning over cheap USB-style chargers as woman dies from apparent electrocution http://t.co/TPwTUYsW9O via @smh
ABC take note
@GuardianAus: Commonsense prevails as BBC upholds Today programme climate complaint | Bob Ward http://t.co/cP3l36apmx
Thanks, Martin.
z,
To fix your problem go to Tools, Then Internet options and clear your browsing history.
zoomster
I should note that no names are given in the Herald Sun article. Only that the suspicion is that it is a Senior Liberal party adviser
Psyclaw
Kevin Andrews is a nasty piece of work
psyclaw
[Andrews. I think that underneath his Christian-like, conservo, Grecian 2000 persona lies a very vicious streak]
I heard him screeching yesterday for the first time and was very surprised. He was quite vicious and petty-sounding. I thought until yesterday that he was a quiet ‘believer’ type, but he was shouting in the same aggressive mode as any of the others. Not at all comfortable with him being in charge of welfare if that’s his nature.
Automotive Transformation Scheme (ATS)
Program Status:
Open for applications.
Description:
The Automotive Transformation Scheme (ATS) commenced on 1 January 2011 and will run until 31 December 2017 .
BB
[The ATS will provide $1.6 billion in capped assistance and approximately $348 million in uncapped assistance.
The ATS provides assistance, in the form of cash payments, for investment and production to automotive participants registered in one of the following categories:
motor vehicle producers (MVPs)
automotive component producers (ACPs)
automotive machine tool and automotive tooling producers (AMTPs), and
automotive service providers (ASPs).]
http://www.ausindustry.gov.au/programs/manufacturing/ats/Pages/default.aspx
vic,
It has to be Andrews Office. He was behind knocking off Mary Wooldridge in Kew. He’s also the titular head of the maddies that Baillieau was railing against. The agenda regarding Abortion Law reform is all him and his minions.
GG
I am inclined to agree
No surprises that the coalition govt aren’t interested in looking into dodgy financial advisors.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/abbott-government-hoses-down-calls-for-royal-commission-into-commonwealth-bank-over-allegedly-dodgy-financial-advice-20140627-3ax93.html
[ I thought until yesterday that he was a quiet ‘believer’ type, but he was shouting in the same aggressive mode as any of the others. Not at all comfortable with him being in charge of welfare if that’s his nature. ]
Andrews was always the same – even back in the Work Choices days.
Denis Napthine as good as admitted on 3aw this morning that Abbott’s budget has damaged the Liberal brand in Victoria. Good to see the Liberals are starting to eat each other.
[
Denis Napthine as good as admitted on 3aw this morning that Abbott’s budget has damaged the Liberal brand in Victoria. Good to see the Liberals are starting to eat each other.
]
Nice see the Vic Libs descending into the denial and blame shifting game already. Usually only happens after you’ve lost an election, not months before!
Bushfire Bill @ 599
[What the hell is the Automotive Transformation Scheme?]
Replacing all Toyota hybrids with muscle cars…..
So Ricky and X may be after some pork for the automotive industry screwed by the Abbott government hounding car makers out of the country.
But not to worry, the Lying Friar has said no deals with minor parties, and Smokin’ Joe said he would bulldoze through any Senate blockages
Napthine is being marked down because he has allowed the Federal Government to gut Victoria’s manufacturing base. No one believes he has the wherewithal or commitment to stand up to the rampant Feds.
Confessions
Tont Abbott favourite david Murray was CEO at the commonwealth bank until 2005
I would not imagine for a minute that the dodgy financial planners suddenly emerged in 2006.
Therefore, no inquiry into CBA.
rossmcg:
Plus they’ve overturned Labor’s FoFA regs which were designed to protect people from dodgy financial types.
I would have thought a RC would be the last thing that would enable victims of financial mismanagement by the Wealth Department of the Comm Bank to receive adequate compensation.
Just to prove we in Australia have our priorities all right, the ABC today will be telecasting on FTA the directions hearing for the Essendon, ASADA and AFL drugs scandal.
Didn’t get that with the various RCs and ICAC inquiries, did we?
GG –
And of course working out what went wrong at CBA and what ASIC could and should have done better is just not important enough…
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/11/05/benjamin-law-up-close-and-personal-with-margaret-andrews/
Fans of Kevin Andrews may like this.
jackol,
They already know.
An expensive RC to tell everyone what is already known is hardly a real solution. But, you can indulge your fantasies.
GG –
Sorry, who knows, and what do they know exactly?
And your nightmares of the time a Royal Commission stole your lunch money don’t need to be played out here every time any investigation is suggested.
[Tony Abbott favourite david Murray was CEO at the commonwealth bank until 2005
I would not imagine for a minute that the dodgy financial planners suddenly emerged in 2006.
Therefore, no inquiry into CBA.]
2005?
2-oh-oh-FIVE?
That’s practically yesterday. Royal Commissions can’t be held on any matter less than 21 years old, and only then if they involve amounts less than $10,000.
Plus they need to have dodgy, brothel-creeping crooks, octogenarian builders with selective memories, bitter and twisted ex-unionists on prescription drugs for psychotic conditions, slush funds valued at up to but less than $286,000, an an ex-Prime Minister or two involved.
Unless they are about insulation foil installed contrary to Work Cover regulations, employer’s duty of care, and common sense on behalf of the worker, whose parents are looking for “closure”.
No Royal Commission may be held unless the material facts have been investigated at least umpteen times by various police forces and regulatory authorities and found to be groundless or otherwise unactionabvle.
Compared to the above, $250,000,000 ripped off from retirees, the terminally ill and aging superannuants, rendering them penniless and destitute, is a mere fart in a hurricane.
Get a grip, people. Everybody knows The Bank can do no wrong. If you don’t believe me, try disputing one of their statements (as long as you have deep pockets, 10 years to wile away, and can afford to employ expensive lawyers, that is).
573 Martin B
So… faceless men then?
Ballieu’s seat is a very safe Lib seat, so no matter what, it’ll be one brand of Lib or another.
Confessions
And as we we all know, any Tory royal commission would be aimed at digging dirt on Rudd. Gillard and shorten, and if it involves the banks, wayne swan.
But seriously… who would deal with the Commonwealth Bank right now? Who would sign-up for a loan or financial advice?
Indeed, come July 1, why would ANYONE go to a bank for financial advice?
Most people assumed the Banks were working for the people who paid their fees before the Labor government’s legislation was enacted. I think a fair few (including me) were surprised to see that was not the case.
Now Abbott is about to cast the Banks’ self-interest in concrete. It could be a fairly bad move.
Then again, there IS a sucker born every minute.
Another Liberal green light for the spivs!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-27/federal-government-rejects-call-for-royal-commission-into-asic-/5554394
Saville saga keeps going.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/jimmy-savile-claimed-to-have-performed-sex-acts-on-dead-bodies-investigators-say-20140626-zsnfj.html
What a disgusting individual. Truly tragic. I am an atheist but may he rot in hell and the rest of his ilk.
@631
You wouldn’t be surprised. Over the teller they’ll ask a few questions. “Would you like to speak to someone about insurance or managing your money?”
Some people will fall for it.
Thanks for the minerals, SUCKERS!
http://m.smh.com.au/business/glencore-tax-bill-on-15b-income-zip-zilch-zero-20140626-3awg0.html
AM I the only one who wants to see these Glencore Directors in jail?
I mean, could the mining sector make it any more obvious how little they contribute? This is plain theft of our mineral resources.
Government of the people by spivs for spivs.
[No surprises that the coalition govt aren’t interested in looking into dodgy financial advisors.]
Of course not: in fact they’re facilitating dodgy financial advice, and the return of secret commissions.
The LNP are strongly in favour of corruption in the financial industry.
The other issue in the CBA inquiry is the role of ASIC.
Talk about toothless
If I wander into the local liquor stored with a bat in my hand and grab the takings, if I am caught I can expect a jail term, particularly in WA if I am an indigenous person.
But it if am a multi millionaire, I can organise to rip off my customers or some insider trading and in about 10 years time ASIC will probably agree to let me settle out of court and carry on in business.
We like to laugh at the US legal system, but Bernie Madoff is in jail and it didn’t take long to put him there. He was arrested in late 2008 and by June 2009 had been sentenced.
ASIC would probably still be preparing a brief for the AFP in 2020.
[Compared to the above, $250,000,000 ripped off from retirees, the terminally ill and aging superannuants, rendering them penniless and destitute, is a mere fart in a hurricane.]
Yep. That’s about it as far as this lot are concerned.
Watching Cormann the other week using pathetic weasel words to try to justify why Labor’s FoFA laws needed to be gone, and again seeing him today linked with the govt’s efforts to hose down RC calls on the CBA just makes him look like all kinds of poster child for the white shoed brigade spivs.
[Indeed, come July 1, why would ANYONE go to a bank for financial advice?]
I suspect for a lot of people banks are still regarded as the cream of the crop and most trusted (esp the Big 4) of the finance industry.
More spivs:
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorian-budget-takes-540-million-hit-with-supreme-court-ruling-20140626-zsn59.html
The Victorian Government should appeal and if it loses pass backdated legislation to fix the gap in the law that resulted in this judgement. Every man, woman and child in Victoria to pay $95 to Tatts? It’s not on.
Raara @634
I rarely go to a bank these days, but I would be ready with the answer: you gotta be kidding.
Trouble for many people is that they may not realise that the financial advise they are getting about their retirement is from a company that is owned by a bank.
Jackol,
You’re the one with the passion to establish the RC. Perhaps you can explain what it is that you want to discover.
There’s no big secret about what happened with this little scandal. Regulations have been tightened significantly around advice and commission conflict since 2008 and I understand the Government has a full scale inquiry in process looking at what more needs to be done regarding financial regulation.
Apparently, 400 people have been dealt with and there are a possible 7000 files that need to be reviewed. The CBA is likely to take a hit of $500 million when all the cases are dealt with.
If your solution is to run a multi million dollar sob fest of ‘they done me wrong” witnesses, followed by interrogating players with processes that make the evidence unadmissable in a real court and will delay the settlement of outstanding cases, then fill your boots.
BTW I rarely spend millions on lunch these days.
GG –
No, actually, it was the Senate enquiry that recommended the RC, not me.
You’re the one running around going “inquiries are useless!” at every opportunity.
And what I want to discover is simple: our systems failed in this case, and the body charged with keeping the financial system in line failed in its duty – I want to make sure that our systems are better in future. I have no confidence in ASIC, and I have heard no one say a good word about ASIC’s abilities. There has been something seriously wrong in ASIC’s operations for a long time, and it needs to be fixed – and by fixed I don’t mean having its funding cut while expecting it magically to do more.
LOL. Yes, the government has a “full scale inquiry” – what a joke. Firstly I wouldn’t trust this government to run a chook raffle let alone a “full scale inquiry”, secondly it’s being headed up by the foxes in charge of the henhouse, thirdly the terms of reference are not specifically about this issue.
Commission of inquiry bad! Me no like!
The barrister at the ASADA Hearing in the green tie is very familiar to me.
A year or so ago, the Commonwealth did a quote on our house insurance, which was considerably cheaper than our current rate.
I told our broker this and he asked if I minded if he checked it over.
There were major items currently covered by our insurance which went strangely unmentioned in the Commonwealth’s version.
If the broker hadn’t checked it over, I wouldn’t have known any better.
I did drop some of the items identified, but at least I did it knowingly!
CTar
Neil Young Barrister used to be a judge
vic
There must be two of them in green ties – Tom Howe QC (for ASADA) was the one I meant.
CTar1
I am only listening. Not watching
Norwester @551 made some great comments early this morning. I suggest people have a read.
[Palmer’s companies will make a motza on batteries for renewables through nickel mining.]
That is a really useful point to know about.
[I am less concerned about the detail of the vandalism that the the current government do to the current carbon pricing system, but more concerned about the renewable energy encouragement agencies and initiatives. We need to keep them happening or we fall behind on know-how.]
I’ve said it before, this Govt’s finacial backers want to see the CEFC abolished so that they can pick up the highly-trained renewables finance boffins on the cheap. They don’t have the know-how now, and the CEFC is thrashing them all over the ark when it comes to picking profitable renewable energy investments.
[I really hope that Labor and the Greens consider now how to negotiate with each other and the PUP over the next six months to lock in a more-or-less agreed ETS mechanism after the next election. If they really want this to happen they should agree to restrict their petty point scoring off each other to other issues. There’s still plenty enough of them. Let’s see some decent attempts to find a workably agreeable position on this.]
Yes. I think Labor have the wherewithal to handle Palmer behind closed doors, but let’s see how adult the greens can be (i.e. no petulant “principled” tantrums).