BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate points to a continuing deflation of the post-budget Labor poll blowout, and reallocates a chunk of the Labor swing from New South Wales to Victoria.

Two new poll results this week from Nielsen and Essential Research have contributed to a continuation of the moderating trend of Labor’s post-budget poll lead, which sees the two-party preferred result in BludgerTrack come in at 52.6-47.4, down from 53.5-46.5 last week. The peak reading of 55.0-45.0 was recorded four weeks ago, a fortnight after the May 13 budget. The Coalition also has the lead on the primary vote for the first time in six weeks. Labor retains a reasonably comfortable majority on the seat projection, although the numbers once again illustrate how difficult the model considers the electoral terrain to be for Labor, as the present projection of 79 seats is four fewer than Labor managed with an almost identical two-party preferred vote when Kevin Rudd led it to victory in 2007.

There were some striking results in the state breakdowns in Nielsen this week, and BludgerTrack reflects this in having the swing in New South Wales moderate considerably, cutting their projected seat gain from 11 to seven, while in Victoria the gain is up from four to seven. Further shifts beneath the surface find Labor up a seat in Queensland, but down one in both Western Australia and South Australia. The Nielsen poll also furnishes us with a new set of leadership ratings, which after accounting for the model’s standardisation procedure are almost identical to last week’s results from Newspoll. The movements on last week are accordingly very minor.

Last week I offered a closer look at Palmer United’s polling trend, so this week I thought we’d home in on the Greens. After watching their vote fall from 11.8% at the 2010 election to 8.6% in 2013, polling has shown the party on a steady upward trend, with a short-lived spike occurring in April. While this was partly driven by one outlier result from Nielsen, all of the other polling conducted at that time has them clustered around the high level of 12%. All of these results were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Western Australian Senate election, at which the party’s vote was up from 9.5% to 15.6%. The party’s polling in Western Australia has remained strong, the present BludgerTrack reading of its primary vote being 15.8%. Coincidentally or otherwise, the downward trend that followed the WA election spike coincided exactly with the federal budget.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,028 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 12 of 21
1 … 11 12 13 … 21

  1. Good morning Bludgers.

    My take on this is that we will go to the next election with Labor, the Greens and the PUP supporting an ETS of varying degrees. This is a good opportunity to reset the language of the debate for those who can see some benefit in doing so.

    Palmer’s companies will make a motza on batteries for renewables through nickel mining. He’ll probably be made a senior fellow of his beloved JFK Memorial Library.

    People talk like Palmer’s conversion occurred over a half hour meeting with Al Gore. Lots of heavyweight AGW experts have been progressively putting their case to him for the past ten weeks.

    I seriously doubt that it is like Al has flitted in and out and just buggered off now and it is all over. Thats Murdoch style interpretation. Not just Al but the POTUS and senior democrat leadership will be watching what plays out here, and prepared to discreetly intervene if and when required. It matters to them and that will have resonated with Palmer.

    I am less concerned about the detail of the vandalism that the the current government do to the current carbon pricing system, but more concerned about the renewable energy encouragement agencies and initiatives. We need to keep them happening or we fall behind on know-how.

    I hope like hell that some serious dudes make it their business to explain to him what ARENA is and the role that it plays in this. Obvious on lateline Palmer didn’t know about it, but from the rest of his language it would be consistant with the things that he is arguing should be kept so it would be well worth a crack.

    Palmer has just told all of those supporters of his, that he has been convinced by the evidence and that the problem is real. This is a tranch of voters whose preferences could decide more than a few seats.

    Palmer’s starting position on the five major trading partners has the potential to be an extremely good base position for the next political cycle, and any tweaks won’t necessarily require major policy changes that can be easily painted as backflips by the Murdoch crew.

    I really hope that Labor and the Greens consider now how to negotiate with each other and the PUP over the next six months to lock in a more-or-less agreed ETS mechanism after the next election. If they really want this to happen they should agree to restrict their petty point scoring off each other to other issues. There’s still plenty enough of them. Let’s see some decent attempts to find a workably agreeable position on this.

    My guess is that at some stage the proposal that is eventually agreed is to tie the price to the average price of the nominated five trading economies that are pricing carbon once the trade is occurring in a nominated percentage of the those markets rather than the total which will never happen.

    This would set a relatively low entry price that would act as an encouragement to other growing economies such as India to jump on sooner rather than later.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the five markets idea came from Gore or Obama’s people. A subtle shift to percentage of those markets as the joining criteria will probably be the next move.

    It is really difficult to accurately assess a significant long term socio-political-economic shift while it is occurring and many of us will look silly in future for what we write now reacting as we do from one day to the next. My fear is that we may already be too late to prevent some long term severe weather changes.

    I guess that once the world faces the fact that AGW has gotten a tad out of control, there will be a stack of investment in mitigation strategies, survivalist groups, all sorts of whackos, but hopefully also some clever inventions driven by necessity.

    Abbott is on the wrong side of history. Tomorrow’s feather duster. Australia’s King John. Perpetual future winner of ‘who was the biggest tosser we ever had as prime minister’ quiz questions.

    Well enough of that.
    Good morning again to all Bludgers.

  2. I think that is what makes conservatives heads hurt. No black and white but multi-platform multi-technology solutions.

    Like their NBN “solution”?

  3. Fran Barlow

    [Baseload is simply the typical load one expects to have to supply at any given point. After about 4pm in Australia, solar is pretty much useless, and although we could use hydro, it’s usually too expensive, so coal and gas do most of the work, other than in Tasmania. Between about 10 AM and 4pm renewables could easily be built to carry this load and would be baseload in that sense.]

    I’ve got west-facing solar at home and in summer, I usually get decent output in summer with the exception of really hot days where I’m forced to blast the air-conditioning so that flatlines my energy gain.

    On solar power alone there’s a number of very promising up and coming technology.

    I’m really keen on that painted on solar cell, which practically make surfaces generate electricity at a decent percentage of the output you get from regular panels. Imagine painting your entire roof.

    The other is solar thermal which concentrates the sun’s rays into a central collector and has a battery effect. The energy is kept in molten sand which retains heat for about 6 hours.

    In terms of baseload capacity, I’m really surprised that Germany has a high output of power from wind.

    I wonder if there’s hostility from Russia just from the reduction in buying of energy.

  6. The Age editorial.

    [Clive Palmer, the self-professed politician for the people, has wheeled out a Trojan horse on climate change. Cleverly disguised as a political win-win, and prettily decorated with the apparent support of former US vice-president Al Gore, the Palmer United Party has proposed a carbon-reduction strategy that does nothing to reduce carbon emissions. It is a pup.

    To give Mr Palmer credit, it amounts to what some people call smart politics. But that is all. If his proposal succeeds, Australia would be left with no genuine carbon abatement strategy other than medium-term renewable energy targets. The carbon tax would be gone. So, too, the Abbott government’s woeful Direct Action plan. And, while the scaffolding of an emissions trading scheme would remain in place after the carbon tax is repealed, the scheme would have no effect. That is because no price would be affixed to carbon emissions until Australia’s major trading partners implement their own trading schemes. That might occur next year, next decade, or never.

    We can only presume that Mr Gore, one of the world’s leading campaigners for climate change action, lent his support to Mr Palmer because he perceived salvageable merit in two points. They are: PUP’s plan to support existing targets on renewable energy (with 20 per cent of the nation’s electricity in 2020 coming from renewable sources, such as wind or solar energy); and PUP’s support for the continued operation of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, which invests in, and helps organise funding for, renewable or low-emissions energy projects.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/palmers-climate-con-leaves-us-cold-20140626-3aw9l.html#ixzz35mZoSKj2

  8. [Mr Wilder said it would be simpler for Australia to use the existing legislation for an ETS to move immediately to a floating price and ”get on with it” rather than spending another election cycle negotiating an alternative. That position was backed up by The Climate Institute, which said on Thursday that the five trading partners singled out by Mr Palmer – the US, Japan, the EU, Korea and China – were all already implementing carbon market schemes at national or regional scales.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-experts-fear-inaction-on-emissions-cuts-20140626-3awi3.html#ixzz35mbgN1Xs

  10. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2014/jun/26/what-really-annoys-scientists-about-the-state-of-the-climate-change-debate?CMP=twt_gu

    [First is still that, even though it is clear greenhouse gas emissions raise the temperature of the Earth, we’ve known this for 50+ years and no reputable atmospheric scientist in the world disputes this, most people think scientists disagree. They’ve been misled by the media, and I’ve been told repeatedly by reporters in the US and Australia that this is due to pressure from management.]

  11. Apparently it looks like the leak against Ted Ballieu came from (cough) a federal Liberal Minister’s office…

    [Larger / SmallerNight ModeLib adviser probed over tape leak
    By Josh Gordon June 27, 2014, 6:14 a.m.A cabinet minister’s office in the Abbott government is believed to be at the heart of a dirty tricks campaign which has rocked the Napthine government, with an official investigation closing in on senior advisers.
    A cabinet minister’s office in the Abbott government is believed to be at the heart of a dirty tricks campaign which has rocked the Napthine government, with an official investigation closing in on senior advisers.

    See your ad hereIt is understood an internal investigation is looking “very closely” at senior staff from a federal member’s office.

    It follows the theft of a recording device from Sunday Age reporter Farrah Tomazin which contained a private conversation with Ted Baillieu during which the former premier is critical of some colleagues.]

    […a detailed examination of membership records has lead party officials to hone in on staff working in a federal cabinet minister’s office.]

    [Liberal Party state director Damien Mantach has barred offices for the federal seats of Kooyong, Menzies, Goldstein, Higgins and Melbourne Ports from accessing an online database containing Liberal membership details while the investigation is under way..]

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2380112/lib-adviser-probed-over-tape-leak/?cs=12

    Victorian Liberal federal cabinet members — Kevin Andrews and Andrew Robb.

  12. http://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-tony-abbott-should-understand-that-people-arent-as-obsessed-with-the-carbon-tax-as-he-is-28514

    [Rarely does the debate over a federal budget continue so long, or range so widely, as is happening this year. Equally rarely is it so badly handled. The Abbott government seems in a parallel universe – and a never-ending election campaign.

    Take its absolute obsession with the repeal of the carbon tax. Monday had Abbott, in fluro jacket, at a cold storage centre in Melbourne. This is ridiculous. The election is over; the next one not in sight. At the start of the sitting fortnight, he should have been in his office, not providing wallpaper for the TV news.

    Anyway, the government is very likely misjudging the impact of this issue. People will be glad to get the benefits of the repeal, no doubt, but recent polling indicates their agitation about the tax has declined, while they’ve also become somewhat re-engaged with the climate issue.]

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    How can any government stand by and let this happen. Fight fire with fire. Bastards!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/glencore-tax-bill-on-15b-income-zip-zilch-zero-20140626-3awg0.html
    They are happy when they are destroying things.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberals-celebrate-as-carbon-tax-repeal-passes-lower-house-20140626-3awd4.html
    Mark Kenny decodes what has happened. The last couple of sentences are telling.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/who-are-the-winners-from-clive-palmers-green-conversion-20140626-zsmxg.html
    Ben Eltham in The New Matilda does likewise.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/06/26/carbon-clive-slices-little-piece-oz-and-abbott
    Michelle Grattan on Abbott’s obsession with the carbon tax.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-tony-abbott-should-understand-that-people-arent-as-obsessed-with-the-carbon-tax-as-he-is-28514
    I’m glad I got rid of my CBA shares. I would not feel comfortable holding them now. They are in for a rough ride this mob.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/dead-mans-family-beats-cba-from-the-graveside-over-failed-cover-20140626-3awgj.html
    Now, will Abbott simultaneously provide a Royal Commission and push through the FoFA changes?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/scandal-shows-its-time-to-clean-up-financial-planning-industry-20140626-3aw1c.html
    And the Senate Committee fingers Macquarie Bank too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/senate-inquiry-turns-up-heat-on-macquarie-20140626-3awfd.html
    The Independent Australia looks deeply at NewsCorp and Big Tobacco,
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/plain-packaging-works-and-tobacco-advertising-kills,6613
    It was a common practice for priests to sleep with young boys. So it’s OK then?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sleeping-with-boys-was-common-practice-royal-commission-on-sex-abuse-in-wollongong-day-3-20140626-zsm3m.html

  14. Section 2 . . .

    Gerry Harvey where are you? Probably preparing a statement saying how it will all get better as families reap their windfalls from the abolition of the carbon tax.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/480m-budget-blow-retailers-feel-the-pain-20140627-zsnka.html
    There is justifiable scepticism over how Australia will now achieve its CC targets.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-experts-fear-inaction-on-emissions-cuts-20140626-3awi3.html
    Campbell Newman and the rule of law.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/campbell-newman-and-the-rule-of-law,6610
    CSIRO cuts “driven by ignorance”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/26/csiro-funding-cuts-driven-by-pure-ignorance-says-staff-association
    Oh dear! Some trouble in the Liberal camp and fingers are being pointed at the PM’s tent.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/lib-adviser-probed-over-tape-leak-20140627-3awss.html
    Bring it on! Yay!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-inquiry-to-investigate-explosive-federal-police-bribery-claims-over-wheat-board-oilforfood-scandal-20140626-zsn4d.html
    I wonder who blinked. Erica perhaps?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-cleaners-spared-pay-cut-20140626-3awgk.html
    An “orientation message” says Morriscum. What a vile creature.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/immigration-minister-scott-morrison-tells-asylum-seekers-to-go-home-in-orientation-video-20140626-3avy0.html
    An interesting view of Egypt by Waleed Aly.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/jailing-of-peter-greste-in-egypt-reveals-principles-are-the-first-casualty-in-the-war-on-terror-20140626-zsm1y.html

  15. Section 3 . . .

    Alan Moir with a reckless Popeye.

    Andrew Dyson shows us the World Cup cuisine.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    David Pope on fire with Clive Palmer, the elephant in the room.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg and Abbott’s climate change leadership.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    MUST SEE! David Rowe – yellow is the new red. It’s horrible!!
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  16. Lizzie

    CO2-driven radiative forcing was being taught in US schools in the early 1960s. There are clips on Youtube dating from the 1950s in which the phrase “climatic change” was used. One can argue that the atmospheric physics involved was established a couple of decades before that through the old US War Dept examining the vapour trails of jets. Climate Crocks (Peter Sinclair) is an excellent source on the history.

  17. Just having a smile at the photos from the CSIRO scientists rally…firstly,because the crowd really does look like a pack of scientists (think strange hair, glasses), and secondly, at the signs, which have snappy slogans like “CSIRO will cut neurosciences and colorectal cancer research”.

    You can imagine the rally chants went “What do we want?” “Full restoration of funding linked to CPI to enable us to continue the groundbreaking and important research we have been world leaders in for several decades now, which led to important breakthroughs on the world stage!” “When do we want it?” “It should be pointed out that we already have it. This demonstration is about maintaining the status quo!”

  20. Good Morning

    Norwester

    I like your reference to King John. Sums up this mob so well.

    Plenty of candidates for the Sheriff of Nottingham.

  21. [The other is solar thermal which concentrates the sun’s rays into a central collector and has a battery effect. The energy is kept in molten sand which retains heat for about 6 hours.]

    Yes. Solar thermal is the go for large-scale generation and, as you say, it can be made to cover at least part of the end-of-day peak demand.

  22. And from the Land of the Free –

    The US Supreme Court is mad. It’s George W Bush’s legacy.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/06/26/supreme-bullshit/
    It’s simply disgraceful
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/06/scotus-abortion-patients-your-prayful
    Chris Matthews revisits the start of the last Iraq war.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/06/26/bill-kristol-says-hogwash-iraq-war-hawk-apology-possibilitieskristol/
    Surely not. Mitt Romney to make another run?
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/06/25/romney-another-run-purchase-white-house/
    Education management Arizona style.
    http://crooksandliars.com/cltv/2014/06/jackass-az-schools-superintendent-2
    Irresponsible gun owners on steroids!
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/06/another-responsible-gun-owner-shoots
    Ted Koppel skewers Bill O’Reilly and FoxNews and signs off with a kiss.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/06/another-responsible-gun-owner-shoots
    Gun lover celebration Florida style. Tragic.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017199077

  23. [Apparently it looks like the leak against Ted Ballieu came from (cough) a federal Liberal Minister’s office…]

    The thing is, the leaked tape actually makes me feel better about the Vic Libs because it reassures me that the crazies are not in control of the state party, and in fact are being actively resisted by the leadership.

    But then I’m never going to vote for the Libs anyway, so that doesn’t really help them.

  24. With renewable energy all the go; what sort of idiot thinks buying a coal reliant power company would be profitable?

    Unless the Govt has promised to support them making a profit using taxpayer dollars

  25. morning all

    Norwester

    Great analysis. Thanks

    Zoomster

    Also JFrydenberg and KellyO’D offices are under scrutiny.

  26. Martin B

    [The thing is, the leaked tape actually makes me feel better about the Vic Libs because it reassures me that the crazies are not in control of the state party, and in fact are being actively resisted by the leadership.

    But then I’m never going to vote for the Libs anyway, so that doesn’t really help them.]

    I fail to understand how this is reassuring?

  27. victoria

    yes, as I noted – but the article is very strongly pushing the idea that it’s a federal cabinet Minister’s office which is the prime suspect.

  28. zoomster

    What benefit is it for the Libs to continue to malign Ballieu? They already got him dumped as Premier.

  30. I’m glad to know that the Finns etc are not (yet) the dominant faction in the Vic Libs, and that the people who are think they are crazy. That seems to be rather better than the other way around.

  34. It ain’t over yet folks. If Muir goes with X and Madigan, ALP+GRN support = 38 blocking vote

    [Clive Palmer’s alliance with incoming Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party senator Ricky Muir may unravel on the very first vote of the new Senate after July 1.

    The Australian understands that Mr Muir plans to vote against the carbon tax repeal bills unless the Abbott government supports the automotive transformation scheme.

    This would be in direct conflict with the position Mr Palmer laid out in his Wednesday news conference with former US vice-­president Al Gore.

    Mr Muir may be supported in his stance by independent senator Nick Xenophon and Democratic Labour Party senator John Madigan — with the bloc potentially deciding the outcome of the vote.]

    http://ow.ly/yv0zA

  35. [I dont understand how targetting Ballieu means that the crazies are not in charge]

    OIC – Soz, was referring to the contents of the tapes.

    The fact of the leaks indicates a campaign by the crazies, certainly.

  36. confessions

    Understand that. But they are prepared to damage the whole party in order to gain the seat?

    Very stupid

  39. [Mr Muir may be supported in his stance by independent senator Nick Xenophon and Democratic Labour Party senator John Madigan]

    Why would Madigan vote against CEL repeal? He’s a straight up denialist. He voted against CEFC repeal but that’s cause he rather likes govt intervention in the market.

  41. victoria:

    Look at the damage done to the then Labor govt by the former member for Griffith and his spear carriers.

    Nothing like self interest to get in the way of the good of the party.

  42. I can’t read the article (paywall) but it appears ‘The Herald-Sun’ actually names the staffer involved (certainly there’s a photo..)

  43. But, and I hate to sound like a broken record, but if Muir + X vote with ALP + Grns on that one, it really will highlight the utter insanity of the preference decisions of the ALP and Grns in SA that saw Bob Day elected over a second X (however objectionable he may have been).

  45. [Michelle Grattan on Abbott’s obsession with the carbon tax.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-tony-abbott-should-understand-that-people-arent-as-obsessed-with-the-carbon-tax-as-he-is-28514 ]

    If Abbott is losing Old Coke Bottles, things are grim. She’s the one who flutters her eyelids at him, her heart misses a beat at his very passing by. She states lovingly that his greatest character strength is… loyalty!

    Grattan turning is crook for Abbott.

  46. Zoomster #561

    Of Robb and Andrews I’d guess for Andrews.

    I think that underneath his Christian-like, conservo, Grecian 2000 persona lies a very vicious streak, more often utilised in covertly making bullets rather than firing them out in the open.

    He is IMHO really a rural type, a country member.

  47. Martin B

    How will minor parties voting with the ALP and the Greens prove that the ALP and Greens were wrong to preference Bob Day?

    Don’t see the logic in that proposition at all.

  48. victoria

    yes, as I said, I can’t access it – apparently I’ve used up my quota of ‘Herald Sun’ viewings (which is more likely my son, following the World Cup…)

Comments Page 12 of 21
1 … 11 12 13 … 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *