Two new poll results this week from Nielsen and Essential Research have contributed to a continuation of the moderating trend of Labor’s post-budget poll lead, which sees the two-party preferred result in BludgerTrack come in at 52.6-47.4, down from 53.5-46.5 last week. The peak reading of 55.0-45.0 was recorded four weeks ago, a fortnight after the May 13 budget. The Coalition also has the lead on the primary vote for the first time in six weeks. Labor retains a reasonably comfortable majority on the seat projection, although the numbers once again illustrate how difficult the model considers the electoral terrain to be for Labor, as the present projection of 79 seats is four fewer than Labor managed with an almost identical two-party preferred vote when Kevin Rudd led it to victory in 2007.
There were some striking results in the state breakdowns in Nielsen this week, and BludgerTrack reflects this in having the swing in New South Wales moderate considerably, cutting their projected seat gain from 11 to seven, while in Victoria the gain is up from four to seven. Further shifts beneath the surface find Labor up a seat in Queensland, but down one in both Western Australia and South Australia. The Nielsen poll also furnishes us with a new set of leadership ratings, which after accounting for the model’s standardisation procedure are almost identical to last week’s results from Newspoll. The movements on last week are accordingly very minor.
Last week I offered a closer look at Palmer United’s polling trend, so this week I thought we’d home in on the Greens. After watching their vote fall from 11.8% at the 2010 election to 8.6% in 2013, polling has shown the party on a steady upward trend, with a short-lived spike occurring in April. While this was partly driven by one outlier result from Nielsen, all of the other polling conducted at that time has them clustered around the high level of 12%. All of these results were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Western Australian Senate election, at which the party’s vote was up from 9.5% to 15.6%. The party’s polling in Western Australia has remained strong, the present BludgerTrack reading of its primary vote being 15.8%. Coincidentally or otherwise, the downward trend that followed the WA election spike coincided exactly with the federal budget.
GG:
[If your solution is to run a multi million dollar sob fest of ‘they done me wrong” witnesses, followed by interrogating players with processes that make the evidence unadmissable in a real court and will delay the settlement of outstanding cases, then fill your boots.]
I’m pretty sure the recommendation is for an RC into the relationship between CBA and ASIC – the regulator.
As you say, everyone knows that CBA (and perhaps other banks too?) was doing the dodgy, falsifying transfers to funcds with trailing commissions, push mortgages onto old widows for kitchen renovations and the like. they’ve even admitted to a lack of oversight.
The big questions revolve around what ASIC was doing, or not doing, as the complaints started rolling in.
Let’s just say a couple of different C-words have been tossed about, and this time, none of them are “Clive”.
Government has lost another refugee case in High Court although this is not a legislation issue but a stuff up in the Refugee Tribunal (not a rare thing)
It looks like the High Court preferred the view of Kerr J who sat on an intervening appeal. I assume that is Duncan Kerr.
CTar1
You would know Tom Howe QC as crown counsel in the Australian Government Solicitor.
Nice able barrister who for a time was acting Solicitor General.
And how good was Kyrgios last night?
LU
Extraordinary effort by the young man
jackol,
The Senate inquiry calls for a RC are simply political grandstanding.
You are now denying you are not in favour of a RC?
You are now saying you are in favour of a RC?
You are not a happy camper! Diddums! Cry me a river!
You having a tanty is no reason to spend millions to not find out anything.
GG:
[You having a tanty is no reason to spend millions to not find out anything.]
Mate, there are plenty of things to find out about the relationship between the regulator and the supposedly regulated. Plenty.
LU,
If you are hinting there are rumours of corruption at ASIC, someone should produce some evidence of same.
My view on these things is that when you have to choose between lack of competence and corruption as the source of a stuff up, then go with the lack of competence issue every time unless you have evidence to the contrary.
I know it’s a house habit of PB to find conspiracies every where. But, I choose not to indulge.
LU @ 657,
Evetyone is guilty of something eh!
We just need to have unlimited and uncosted inquiries to prove it!
Murdoch may spend the rest of his life shelling out millions to lawyers.
[Rupert Murdoch’s Trouble Has Only Just Begun
It can now be reported that the FBI has copies of at least 80,000 emails taken from the servers at News Corp in New York……………12 further criminal trials against former staff at the Sun and the News of the World are scheduled to take place later this year. And after that, Jay Rockefeller, chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, says he is waiting to formally launch a congressional investigation into the company]
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/06/25/rupert-murdoch-s-trouble-has-only-just-begun.html
[If you are hinting there are rumours of corruption at ASIC, someone should produce some evidence of same.]
Agreed.
At a Royal Commission.
LU,
There’s a hole in your bucket dear LU, dear LU.
[Murdoch may spend the rest of his life shelling out millions to lawyers.]
If only others could be in that state of bliss.
Essential Poll shows what Australians really think of Clive Palmer, and it’s not pretty
The Essential poll strongly reflects the fact that Australians have twigged to this kind of political to-ing and fro-ing on the part of Clive. Here are some of the poll’s key findings:
The 60-year-old was listed as:
• out of touch with ordinary people (by 59 per cent of respondents)
• erratic (by 64 per cent of respondents)
• aggressive (by 67 per cent of respondents)
• arrogant (by a whopping 70 per cent of respondents)
http://www.news.com.au/national/essential-poll-shows-what-australians-really-think-of-clive-palmer-and-its-not-pretty/story-fncynjr2-1226968522959
shellbell,
Perhaps he should just change his name by deed poll to “Royal Commission”.
GG:
A Senate committee has just recommended an RC into the relationship between the CBA and ASIC.
THIS IS NOT A CONSPIRACY THEORY!
shellbell
😆
LU,
Shouting and talking slowly do not enhance your argument.
GG –
That would be why the Nat was on board along with the ALP.
I think some sort of judicial enquiry is warranted given the ongoing failure of ASIC. But the RC calls did not originate with me; it’s not my barrow being pushed.
You, on the other hand, have repeated the same lines of argument with respect to the RC into institutional child abuse, anything ICAC does, and now calls for an inquiry into CBA/ASIC. I see something of a pattern.
Basically your position seems to be that we should never inquire into anything lest some money have to be spent.
Ignorance (on the cheap!) is bliss.
I’m looking at the directions hearing regarding Essendon and ASADA. The judge is a very personable fellow.
Why doesn’t the Commonwealth set up a fidelity fund for folk ripped off by bank financial advisers to which financial institutions compulsorily contribute.
Give the fund a legal status to recover payouts from rogue advisers.
Cheaper than RC.
[Shouting and talking slowly do not enhance your argument.]
Resorting to pedantry doesn’t enhance yours.
Jackol,
You can generally count the lasting outcomes of RC type inquiries on the fingers of your clenched fist.
Repeating the same behaviour and expecting the outcome to be different is a well known definition of insanity.
Enjoy your asylum, comrade.
GG: and patronising comments do not substitute for one either.
When a public institution responsible for oversight of an industry with significant economic and political power systematically fail to complete their duties, with consequences to the tune of billions of dollars, the I think a wide-ranging public investigation is warranted.
Particularly when claims like this are made public.
You don’t agree. I propose we leave it at that.
Jackol
Ignore GG he has a very nasty side particularly when it comes to criticism of the Catholic Church.
shellbell
[Nice able barrister who for a time was acting Solicitor General.]
Usually Henry Burmester or Robert Orr would fill in for the S-G but Tom is of equal rank these days so maybe they’re taking it in turns now or it may depend on what’s on at the time.
BB,
You only like RCs because they provide fodder for your highly entertaining and well written conspiracy theories.
Labor and the Greens will find it hard at the next election.
It’s odds on that Clive and his fellow tories will ensure that voters will have to produce photograph ID when they turn up at the polls.
This will eliminate younger, poorer and itinerant voters who are more likely to support Left parties.
All this to prevent voting fraud which is either non-existent or totally insignificant.
GG –
You have no basis for asserting this.
The integrity of Australian institutions has improved considerably over the last 40 years or so at least (I’m not old enough or informed enough to comment on pre-1970s Australian institutions and reform), and that improvement is in large part due to an ongoing commitment to properly rooting out improper behaviour and improving our systems. Much of this has been the result of inquiries of various sorts, including RCs.
It seems that you simply don’t value integrity.
[Why doesn’t the Commonwealth set up a fidelity fund for folk ripped off by bank financial advisers to which financial institutions compulsorily contribute.
Give the fund a legal status to recover payouts from rogue advisers.]
That’s a good suggestion.
Greensborough Growler@658
If ASIC lack the competence to do their job, I would like to know why. Its ok, they are not corrupt, they just don’t know what they are doing, doesn’t really cut it.
Jackol,
Having lost the argument, you now go the smear!
It seems you have no integrity to lose.
Ahh, GG, it’s over when you start playing the victim.
Well played guys.
Toorak Toff@678: The photo ID requirement far more likely to hurt Labor than the Greens IMO: the Green voting base tends to be tertiary-educated.
I also don’t think it will necessarily cause a problem for younger voters: young people are far and away the most likely members of the population to carry ID with them. It’s the people aged 65 or over who typically wander around without ID: indeed, those who have never driven or no longer do so and who don’t have passports often don’t have any photo ID at all.
It will certainly pose a problem in remote Aboriginal communities, and might be legally challenged on that basis (I would have thought that the High Court would find it difficult to uphold a law that effectively disenfranchises a lot of Aboriginal people.)
I think if the Coalition had been confident that a photo ID system was going to help them enormously, they would have tried to introduce it by now.
RM,
Who is to say that issue has not been already addressed since the GFC?
Wasting time and money on an RC investigating the past which operated under a different financial regulation regime does not appear to me to be a good spend of taxpayer dollars.
If there were any corruption it should have been exposed by now.
GG
Spoken like Sir Terry Lewis!
You know you’ve hit rock bottom when the Wiggles make a mockery of you.
[
Wiggles poke fun at Luis Suarez over World Cup bite
Even the Wiggles have been bitten by the Luis Suarez bug, it seems.
The popular children’s entertainers released their take on the Uruguayan player’s recent World Cup antics.
]
http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/music/wiggles-poke-fun-at-luis-suarez-over-world-cup-bite-20140627-zsnpd.html
It’s no surprise that a Nat senator would vote for an inquiry into a Bank.
Absolutely no love lost between farmers and the banks over lending practices over many decades.
RM,
You can’t roller skate in a Buffalo Herd!
Spoken like Roger Miller
There was a heavy set chap on 24 earlier today who said that ASIC’s problems were laziness and incompetence rather than criminality. Said they’d had complaints for years. Don’t know whose “side” this supports.
CTar1
There’d be a few still fuming over the “cunning plan” that was the ‘Swiss Loans Affair’.
poroti
[that was the ‘Swiss Loans Affair’.]
Yep, no doubt about that one.
CTar1:
[It’s no surprise that a Nat senator would vote for an inquiry into a Bank.
Absolutely no love lost between farmers and the banks over lending practices over many decades.]
A lot of good it will do. Who was it that said of the Nats “Lions in the bush, mice in Canberra.”
[State and federal ministers will reinstate a healthy food star rating system that was controversially pulled offline by federal Assistant Health Minister Fiona Nash and her junk-food lobbyist chief of staff.
At a meeting in Sydney this morning they voted to reinstate the website, and affirmed support for the scheme that will allow food producers to adopt a voluntary system for comparing the healthiness of different types of foods.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/health-ministers-vote-to-reinstate-healthy-food-star-rating-website-20140627-zsnqy.html#ixzz35ntTm9fk
[More than three-quarters of conservative Americans – those in the steadfast conservative, business conservative and young outsider-type groups – agree that “poor people have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything,” according to the US Pew Research Centre. Only 7 per cent of conservatives say that the poor “have hard lives”.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/in-us-over-75-per-cent-of-conservatives-say-the-poor-have-it-easy-20140627-zsnqm.html#ixzz35nu0aFZ2
Conservatives think only them selves, that’s why so many people need welfare.
It’s not rocket science.
[young outsider-type ]
What’s that? Young conservatives that enjoy bush walking?
Redneck Welfare :
A woman went down to the Welfare Office to get aid.
The officeworker asked her, “How many children do you have?”
“Ten,” she replied.
“What are their names?” he asked.
“LeRoy, LeRoy, LeRoy, LeRoy, LeRoy, LeRoy, LeRoy, LeRoy, LeRoy, and LeRoy,” she answered.
“They’re all named LeRoy?” he asked “What if you want them tocome in from playing outside?”
“Oh, that’s easy,” she said. “I just call ‘LeRoy,’ and they allcome running in.”
“And, if you want them to come to the table for dinner?”
“I just say, ‘LeRoy, come eat your dinner’,” she answered.
“But what if you just want ONE of them to do something?” he asked.
“Oh, that’s easy,” she said. “I just use their last name!”
Mean, badcat, go to the corner!!
lizzie@695 and zoidloid@696
As someone who would probably want to describe their worldview as “conservative”, I resent the use of the word “conservative” to describe the sort of people mentioned in this news story.
True conservatives once used to define themselves in terms of their support for the key institutions of society, their sense of responsibility past, present and future generations, their belief that all better-off citizens are obliged to provide service to the community and, in particular, the poor.
The results of this survey reflect the success of far right politicians in promoting the attitude that Mark Latham has described as “downward envy”. These people are not worrying about their own interests: they have been persuaded to ignore those in favour of feeling hatred and envy towards those who are worse-off than them. It’s the old far right strategy of stirring up hatred against a social group: be it defined by ethnicity, religion, culture or – in this case – economics (although it should be remembered that for many Americans, the concept of “poor people” and the concept of “black people” go together pretty closely).
What is really disturbing me about modern right wing politics in many western countries is that it is becoming dominated by this sort of far right thinking, targeting the most prejudiced and fearful and least well-informed voters.
This drift to the far right – which in English-speaking countries has been egged on by the Murdoch media and various shock jocks – has marginalised the more sober and sensible people on the political right.
What it seems to be producing is right wing political parties and leaders who can attract enormous support, especially from older voters, but – having ridden into government on the back of their sloganeering and demonising – prove themselves to be incapable of governing. We saw that with George Bush and his silly neo-cons and now locally with the Abbott-Hockey-Pyne troika.
For those of us who aren’t politically one-eyed and want to see good government in this country (and, perhaps more importantly, in the US where all the nukes are), it’s a highly disturbing trend and one which won’t be easily fixed.