Seat of the week: Leichhardt

Electorally volatile in recent times, the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt has generally gone the way of the winning party at elections in the modern era, an exception being present incumbent Warren Entsch’s win for the Liberal National Party after he returned from retirement in 2010.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Leichhardt consists of the northernmost part of Queensland, including Cairns at its southern extremity along with Cape York Peninsula and the Torres Strait Islands. Naturally marginal Cairns provides it with about two-thirds of its voters, the remainder coming from conservative-leaning rural areas along the coast immediately to the north, and Labor-voting indigenous communities beyond. The electorate ranks sixth out of the nation’s 150 electorates for the highest proportion of indigenous persons, behind the two Northern Territory electorates, neighbouring Kennedy, Durack in northern Western Australia, and Parkes in interior New South Wales. Another distinguishing features is a large number of voters over 55, reflecting the popularity of Cairns as a retirement haven.

The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, prior to which its area was mostly accommodated by Herbert until 1934 and Kennedy thereafter. Herbert and then Kennedy were in Labor hands from 1928 to 1949, but Leichhardt was narrowly won by the Country Party at its inaugural election, which saw the Menzies government come to power. However, Labor won the seat at the subsequent election in 1951, and it remained in the party fold until David Thomson gained it for the National Country Party amid Labor’s statewide debacle of 1975. Warren Entsch became the seat’s first Liberal member when he unseated Labor’s Peter Dodd with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, polling 31.8% to the Nationals candidate’s 20.4%. Entsch suffered only a 0.5% swing at the 1998 election, compared with a statewide swing of 7.2%, and subsequently built his margin up to double figures with swings of 2.3% in 2001 and 3.6% in 2004.

Entsch’s local popularity was further illustrated when he bowed out temporarily at the 2007 election, Labor gaining the seat in his absence with a towering swing of 14.3%, the second biggest of that election after Forde in Brisbane’s outer south. The result also underscored the local eclipse of the Nationals, whose candidate polled only 4.0%. Incoming Labor member Jim Turnour managed only a single term before falling victim at the 2010 election to the combined impact of a statewide Labor rout, which cost them seven out of their existing 15 Queensland seats, and the return from retirement of Warren Entsch. Labor’s margin of 4.1% was easily accounted for by a swing of 8.6%, to which Entsch added a further 1.2% at the 2013 election.

Warren Entsch came to politics after serving in the Royal Australian Air Force from 1969 to 1978, then working as a maintenance fitter and welder, real estate agent, farmer and grazier and company director. After winning election in 1996 and re-election in 1998, he was promoted to parliamentary secretary but thereafter rose no higher, and went to the back bench upon announcing his retirement citing family reasons in 2006. During his subsequent three-year interregnum he was director of Cairns construction company CEC Group and the Australian Rainforest Foundation, but talk soon emerged of a political comeback, first in relation to the 2009 state election and then for his old seat. With this accomplished he served for a term as the Coalition’s chief whip, before relinquishing the position to Philip Ruddock after the 2013 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Seat of the week: Leichhardt”

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  2. Why does Insiders play silly music behind Ron Boswell’s farewell speech? What a stupid, childish decision.

  3. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm….

    We have terminological clarification from Bishop.

    It is called ‘Occupied East Jerusalem’ by the ‘michievous’ Greens. Ms Bishop here leaves out the rest of the world except Israel also calling it ‘Occupied Eat Jerusalem’.

    Then Brandis said that it was not ‘Occupied East Jerusalem’.

    Then it was ‘occupied East Jerusalem’ not ‘Occupied East Jerusalem’.

    It then became for a while in Coalition-speak ‘Disputed East Jerusalem’.

    Now, according to Ms Bishop, it is now just plain ‘East Jerusalem’.

    Get it? Not ‘occupied’. Not ‘Occupied’. Not ‘disputed’.

  5. Boerwar

    [Ignores around two dozen countries for being Greens.]
    More like 5 dozen. There were 57 foreign ministers at the meeting in Jeddah where the “O” , “o” was on the agenda. We got away with being formally condemned by the ministers. Well done Brandisnaps.

  8. [Annabel Crabbe writes an unreadable prep school level appraisal of Hilary Clinton’s book, telling us why it’s unreadable.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/hillary-clintons-latest-book-hard-choices-no-easy-read-20140620-zsg5w.html%5D

    I might read the book though now. I may well be a snob but a potential president of the US writing a book that is too intelligent for Annabel is a wonderful thing. i realise of course that I shouldn’t get too excited and that on a bad day with a hangover the hungry caterpillar might challenge Crabb, but still a most excellent thing.

  9. Banner running across screen on Insiders.

    Morrison going to re-introduce TPV

    And there I was thinking the Liberals claimed they were part of the problem

  11. Last week JBishop was blaming Labor for the occupied nonsense. Now it’s the Greens.

    Never mind the elephant in the room.

  12. Catching up with yesterday’s papers and postings, and I see that in The Wonderful World of Oz (who knew that tornado took Dorothy to either a parallel universe or some far planet – they certainly do not live on the same planet I do) an article that basically has scientists saying the great barrier reef is farked due to multiple pressures, gets the headline:

    Remote reef’s recovery gives hope for tourist hot spot

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/remote-reefs-recovery-gives-hope-for-tourist-hot-spot/story-e6frg8y6-1226961795036

    so on Planet Oz if a few outer reefs survive for a bit longer for tourists, destruction of the rest is OK. nothing to see here, dredging and unabated greenhouse gas emissions are just fine….

    I note also that Bill Leak has done yet another right wing-ish cartoon – that brain damage he suffered a few years ago shows. Several studies suggest that a deficit of 10-20 IQ points is the difference between most conservatives and the progressive they could otherwise have been.

    and Turkey – best of luck with your mental health issues. Keep talking to people and don’t get depressed. Just don’t expect anyone here to go easy on you when you bait us :).

  18. A bit of a milestone as Germany moves towards a low carbon economy.

    [Germany produced a record 50 percent of its electricity needs through solar panel at the start of June, breaking a huge milestone on its march to renewable energy……………. But he added: “I think we could break a new record every two to three months now. We are installing more and more PVs (solar panels).”

    The success of Germany’s solar production lies with encouraging people to install them on their roof tops rather than building huge solar farms. Rothacher said 90 percent of solar panels in Germany were on individuals’ roofs.]
    http://www.thelocal.de/20140619/germany-produces-half-of-electricity-needs-with-solar-power

  20. Morrison is in for a surprise. Labor opposes TPV’s. The Greens preferenced PUP for its pro AS policies.

    So Morrison can say he i going to restore TPV’s all he likes. It does not mean its going to happen

  21. A classic column from the Kouk, though expect the goons will be sent out to rifle through his rubbish bin now…

    [Readership of The Australian newspaper has reached a record high, according to an industry report obtained by The Kouk.

    The confidential report, produced by industry leader Imakethisshitup, confirmed readership has skyrocketed despite sales of the national newspaper sinking to record lows and bird owners complaining of a shortage of suitable newsprint for the bottom of their cages.

    The source told The Kouk that the decision to give away three-quarters of all copies of The Australian at airports as a “masterstoke” behind the readership surge.]

    http://thekouk.com/blog/exclusive-the-australian-readership-figures-reach-a-record-high.html#.U6Yc2Ma27wI

  22. The notion that the Greens are really to blame for the recent occupied/Occupied/disputed brouhaha truly smacks of desperation, and shows just how big a mess has been created for Ms Bishop by her colleague.

    It’s interesting that a number of Senator Brandeis’s worst stuff ups – the bigots’ rights comment, and now this – have been made during interchanges in the Senate. His problem is that for all that he tries to project that he is choosing every word with lawyerly skill, he really doesn’t know when to shut up, and like a school debater, just has to have the last word on everything. He stupidly followed Senator Rhiannon onto the thin ice towards which she lured him, and of course it broke beneath his feet.

    I suspect that such things are going to keep on happening until Mr Abbott realises that Brandeis is the real dud of his ministry, and moves him on.

  23. Bushfire Bill @ 352: I was at an Estimates Committee hearing some years ago, and was able to witness the charming sight of Senator Boswell, in some sort of extremis, drooling on his blotter. Good riddance to him.

  25. pedant

    Thanks for the detail o:

    Boswell proud of his antagonism towards the ‘fools’ who want to clean up the environment.

  26. Anyone else notice that Gerard was so convinced that Jonathan Swan was a “lefty” that he contradicted him even when Jonathan was agreeing. Not as smart as he thinks, old Gerard.

  27. lizzie

    Henderson has the problem that he outsourced his thinking to his Institute long ago.

    Of course this shows up on live tv.

  28. After Insiders, I couldn’t resist posting this extract of Mike Seccombe on Gerard. It seems that he constantly looks for the bias on the left to prove he must be right.

    [Outward appearances aside, what makes Gerard Henderson happy? Irritating others into denouncing him, it would seem.

    If you go to his Media Watch Dog column on the Sydney Institute website or at The Australian, and scroll past all the boring stuff – the nitpicking catalogues of alleged journalistic errors and bias, the 50-year-old transcripts of Santamaria’s crazed theorising on the Vietnam War – you will find an extensive collection of abuse directed at, and diligently collected by, Henderson himself.

    The site records that David Marr recently referred to him as “the Inspector Clouseau of forensic journalism”, that Mark Latham names him the “great Australian media nutter”, that Mike Carlton thinks him an “unhinged crank” who in the 18th century would be caged and poked with sticks, and that Malcolm Farr simply calls him a “complete fuckwit”. In the interests of full disclosure, it should be noted that The Saturday Paper’s own editor, Erik Jensen, is there too, calling Henderson a “sclerotic warhorse”, among other things.

    Now, lots of people in public life take pleasure in irritating their opponents, but there are surely few others who obsessively collect and display the abuse directed at them. The more outraged their responses, the happier he seems to be.]

    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/06/21/the-henderson-gigs/1403272800#.U6YkMpSSyKI

  29. Gerard Henderson is a dope. Has he ever said anything that could make one think that he was actually intelligent?

    He’s a Liberal Party hypocrite stooge – that is all!

  31. I’ve just had to put some pants on (usually walk around in my undies).

    When is this global warming actually going to start.

  32. Re recent discussion of the weather. My folks are enjoying a 3 month ‘oliday in FNQ and the Territory. The rain north of Cairns has been relentless in the last three weeks to the point they could not travel further north than Cooktown and many roads have been cut off.

    Even the locals are surprised at the amount of rain at the moment and that down south west of Rocky and Townsville it is the worst drought conditions in memory.

    The rain finally relented sufficiently to enable my folks to arrange a trip on the ‘Savannahlander’ train from Mareenba to Mount Surprise.

    They have arrived in Normanton where it is dry and all going well they are booked on the Wednesday ‘Gulflander’ to Croydon returning on Thursday.

    Meanwhile friends in Mackay report that the nights have been very cold which is most unusual at this time of year.

    In Melbourne this morning it is mild and the the sun is out.

    Plus the local magpies are getting stroppy … about 3 months early from the ‘swooping season’

  33. Centre @ 379

    Actually G Henderson reminds me of the eternally miserably and morose and grumpy PP McGuiness without the beard.

  35. Centre
    Posted Sunday, June 22, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink
    I’ve just had to put some pants on (usually walk around in my undies).
    When is this global warming actually going to start.

    I sit here smacking myself on the head repeating over and over “Words not pictures, words not pictures….”

  37. SGH

    You know, if Henderson had half an ordinary brain he’d be suggesting to his beloved Liberal Party that they keep the carbon tax as it soon converts to an ETS and the revenue it raises is essential for their so called budget emergency.

  39. The reason that the magpies are cranky atm is that after their poor performance yesterday there is unlikely to be any swooping behaviour in three months time.

  40. Which also explains my neighbour’s cat not wanting to come over for a pat after a certain team’s shocker last night up north.

  42. [Boswell going?

    Excellent. Another climate fool bites the political dust.]

    problem is, they’ve got plenty more where he came from. Less than 25% of LNP ‘representatives’ have indicated they accept climate science, and 60% of LNP voters reject the science. somehow they just know 97% of climate scientists have got it wrong. many of the same people are creationists or ‘intelligent design’ supporters, or other believers in invisible magic sky fairies listening to them and acting in their lives. Just as the US republicans started courting these voters of these nutters only to be overrun by them, the LNP got done over during the howard era and is now the party of the lunar right – any moderate lib with half a brain would bail. I’d argue that Turnbull has duty to the nation to split the party and form a moderate liberal democratic party and leave the loons to their own devices. I fear we are going to have senates with RWNJs holding the balance of power for many years to come. the democrats demise came too soon.

  44. Fitting that Ron Boswell gave his valedictory speech with a prominent stain on his rumpled coat, unshaven, ruddy faced from too much boozing the night before, and congratulating his fellow climate change denying dinasours.

  45. sprocket

    [Fitting that Ron Boswell gave his valedictory speech with a prominent stain on his rumpled coat, unshaven, ruddy faced from too much boozing the night before, and congratulating his fellow climate change denying dinasours.]

    Great assessment 😆

  48. http://earthworkercooperative.com.au/

    http://startsomegood.com/Venture/earthworker/Campaigns/Show/earthworker_a_new_hope

    [Support the transformation for climate and jobs. The time to act is NOW.

    We are facing a climate emergency, in a political climate of inaction and denial. There is no time to wait for solutions from above. In Australia, we are seeing unprecedented challenges to working conditions and to our social security, and inadequate action on climate change.

    We need to take steps to address climate change, we need to create meaningful employment, we need to support and empower communities to transition away from fossil fuels. This is what Earthworker seeks to address.

    Right now, through unique partnerships with local manufacturers, Earthworker is producing high quality solar hot water systems. Each unit made is a step toward manufacturing in our first worker-owned factories.]

  50. Meanwhile in UK, Tories costly welfare reforms:
    http://speye.wordpress.com/2014/06/21/disney-politics-in-ids-and-cameron-ive-got-no-strings-of-lies-to-hold-me-down/
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/buy-to-let/10787462/Landlords-9bn-housing-benefit-fuelling-bubble.html
    Which includes an ever increasing Housing Benefit.

    Which is funny, considering that Housing Benefit only benefits the landlords who rent out their properties.

    I suppose it’s pretty similar here with Negative Gearing.

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