Seat of the week: Leichhardt

Electorally volatile in recent times, the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt has generally gone the way of the winning party at elections in the modern era, an exception being present incumbent Warren Entsch’s win for the Liberal National Party after he returned from retirement in 2010.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Leichhardt consists of the northernmost part of Queensland, including Cairns at its southern extremity along with Cape York Peninsula and the Torres Strait Islands. Naturally marginal Cairns provides it with about two-thirds of its voters, the remainder coming from conservative-leaning rural areas along the coast immediately to the north, and Labor-voting indigenous communities beyond. The electorate ranks sixth out of the nation’s 150 electorates for the highest proportion of indigenous persons, behind the two Northern Territory electorates, neighbouring Kennedy, Durack in northern Western Australia, and Parkes in interior New South Wales. Another distinguishing features is a large number of voters over 55, reflecting the popularity of Cairns as a retirement haven.

The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, prior to which its area was mostly accommodated by Herbert until 1934 and Kennedy thereafter. Herbert and then Kennedy were in Labor hands from 1928 to 1949, but Leichhardt was narrowly won by the Country Party at its inaugural election, which saw the Menzies government come to power. However, Labor won the seat at the subsequent election in 1951, and it remained in the party fold until David Thomson gained it for the National Country Party amid Labor’s statewide debacle of 1975. Warren Entsch became the seat’s first Liberal member when he unseated Labor’s Peter Dodd with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, polling 31.8% to the Nationals candidate’s 20.4%. Entsch suffered only a 0.5% swing at the 1998 election, compared with a statewide swing of 7.2%, and subsequently built his margin up to double figures with swings of 2.3% in 2001 and 3.6% in 2004.

Entsch’s local popularity was further illustrated when he bowed out temporarily at the 2007 election, Labor gaining the seat in his absence with a towering swing of 14.3%, the second biggest of that election after Forde in Brisbane’s outer south. The result also underscored the local eclipse of the Nationals, whose candidate polled only 4.0%. Incoming Labor member Jim Turnour managed only a single term before falling victim at the 2010 election to the combined impact of a statewide Labor rout, which cost them seven out of their existing 15 Queensland seats, and the return from retirement of Warren Entsch. Labor’s margin of 4.1% was easily accounted for by a swing of 8.6%, to which Entsch added a further 1.2% at the 2013 election.

Warren Entsch came to politics after serving in the Royal Australian Air Force from 1969 to 1978, then working as a maintenance fitter and welder, real estate agent, farmer and grazier and company director. After winning election in 1996 and re-election in 1998, he was promoted to parliamentary secretary but thereafter rose no higher, and went to the back bench upon announcing his retirement citing family reasons in 2006. During his subsequent three-year interregnum he was director of Cairns construction company CEC Group and the Australian Rainforest Foundation, but talk soon emerged of a political comeback, first in relation to the 2009 state election and then for his old seat. With this accomplished he served for a term as the Coalition’s chief whip, before relinquishing the position to Philip Ruddock after the 2013 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

669 comments on “Seat of the week: Leichhardt”

Comments Page 7 of 14
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  1. @RT/300

    Ahh there goes the Egotism of the RT.

    You have a problem, it’s called Egotism, I suggest you see a doctor/specialist.

  2. Well BB, your response has little to do with my experience.

    I am calling it as I see it.

    My life.

    And it is fine, for me.

  3. @Zoidlord/304

    It was about all my mental problems. She ordered me to have a CT Scan of my brain and blood tests to rule out “organic causes” of my issues before she makes a final diagnosis.

    In her letter to my GP she described me as having a fatuous manner, impaired judgment and limited insight. It was quite unflattering.

    It is all just pseudoscience though.

  4. All the gripping news of the day can be found in the Daily ToiletPaper

    [FORMER first bloke Tim Mathieson has threatened Victorian Premier Denis Napthine with legal action in a furious phone message that ends with him saying “Bang!”

    The tirade, obtained by The Sunday Telegraph, was recorded after Mr Mathieson called the Premier’s Warrnambool electorate office after hours and got the answerphone.

    In a 32-second message, Mr Mathieson complains the Premier, who worked as a veterinarian before entering politics, had mentioned him in Parliament in connection with rogue MP Geoff Shaw’s misuse of his taxpayer-funded car.

    “Of course you’re busy ­because you’ve been bullshitting all day in Parliament,’’ Mr Mathieson said. “So, if he mentions the Prime Minister’s partner one more time, one more time, there will be a legal action against Denis The Vet.

    “You hear me? One more time against the ex-Prime Minister’s partner there will be a lawsuit against him so long — I am not, I am not, anything to do with Geoff Shaw, in any way shape or form. So, if he mentions me one more time, I am telling you right now. OK? That’s it. Bang !”

    Reports of the message circulated in Canberra last week, with Liberal staffers shocked that Mr Mathieson would threaten to sue the premier.

    ]
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/tim-mathieson-threatens-to-sue-premier-over-shampoo-car-claims/story-fni0cx12-1226962317003

  5. Returned Turkeys@305

    @Zoidlord/304

    It was about all my mental problems. She ordered me to have a CT Scan of my brain and blood tests to rule out “organic causes” of my issues before she makes a final diagnosis.

    In her letter to my GP she described me as having a fatuous manner, impaired judgment and limited insight. It was quite unflattering.

    It is all just pseudoscience though.

    Mental problems?

    Could it be a tortured conscience for helping vote in this bunch of idiots who are trying to govern?

  6. @bemused/307

    No the psychiatrist said I don’t have any empathy. She said this is a “negative symptom” of a psychotic disorder.

    When I next post here I will probably be doped up on anti-psychotic meds and you can judge if it effects my political views or not.

    Look for me here once more when next the heavens align.

    Fare you well until then bludgers.

  7. @RT/305

    Hrm, I can understand what your going through as I have limited learning abilities, and was confirmed very early in school.

    So you could have similar issues as I do.

    I suggest you talk to your doctor again and take a copy of the impairment tables, you maybe eligible for Disability Pension, as well as extra support from Centerlink.

    http://guides.dss.gov.au/guide-social-security-law/3/6/3

    Just make sure you have all your medical reports (both old and new).

    You will require 20 points in a single table, and under 15 hours 15 hours per week allowed work to gain the DSP.

  8. Returned Turkeys@308

    @bemused/307

    No the psychiatrist said I don’t have any empathy. She said this is a “negative symptom” of a psychotic disorder.

    When I next post here I will probably be doped up on anti-psychotic meds and you can judge if it effects my political views or not.

    Look for me here once more when next the heavens align.

    Fare you well until then bludgers.

    Well there you go, it all fits.

    No empathy for others so you vote in a bunch of political thugs who will victimise the weak and powerless.

    Perhaps if you attend regular counselling sessions on PB, and approach them with an open mind, you will be cured.

    All jokes and banter aside, I wish you well and hope your problem is resolved.

  9. @Zoidlord/309

    I took my psychiatrist report to the assessor at Centrelink a couple of weeks ago and they said they will put me on the DSP as soon as I have my tests done and see the psychiatrist again for a final diagnosis.

    I didn’t even have to ask. The tricky thing is going to be asking my GP to fill out his report. I’m feeling a bit apprehensive.

  10. [(except if there’s some foreign tongue somewhere that involves the sounds your foot makes as it kicks the dashboard of your car near where the car radio is).]

    I bet German has a word for that, at least.

  11. 306

    Well if it is said under Parliamentary Privilege it immune from defamation law and I think (I am not a lawyer) it may be Contempt of Parliament to threaten to sue for parliamentary speech.

  12. @RT/311

    Yup, I had to go through all that with my ever-chaining GP’s.

    And I just went through that whole mess again for reassessing under the new tables.

    If your GP is the one that you known for a while, then it should make things easier, I had GP’s recently that wouldn’t even sign the Centerlink forms because they didn’t have at least 5 GP visits, and just found my family doctor again.

    Make sure your GP understands the Impairment tables and add it to your GP’s report.

  13. bemused
    [so you vote in a bunch of political thugs who will victimise the weak and powerless.]

    Well the problem is that the weak and powerless don’t exactly thrive under the Labor party either. In fact more “progressive” attitudes to the treatment of social dysfunction over the last four decades seems to have worsened and entrenched it in many ways.

    [I wish you well and hope your problem is resolved.]

    Thankyou bemused, that is kind of you. I don’t know that there is any resolution to my problem though. I think they are just going to diagnose me with schizophrenia, put me on an anti psychotic med with horrible side effects, give me the DSP and leave me to live myself to death in whatever hole I can afford to live in.

    But I will do my best.

  14. @Zoidlord/314

    I went for years without seeing a doctor at all and my old doctor retired so the closest thing I have to a regular doctor is this one who referred me to the psychiatrist, but that was the first time I’d seen him.

    I don’t even want to ask him about the Centrelink report. I’m terrified that he’ll think I’m a scammer or whatever. I just can’t deal with it.

    But I’m going to have to I guess.

  15. Dicks!

    My ‘partner’ took it upon himself to arrange two GP appointments.

    For him first then me. I was most unwell, so it was sort of okay. I would not have done it. Forced into it. Good thing, as it happened.

    The doctor asked me at some point, in a rather hesitant way, about my libido. !

    I answered the question. Then asked had my partner suggested that question.

    The answer was Yes. I said it was likely to be a projection, given that he has issues in terms of diabetes and prostate.

    Doctor asked me how I would address it. Discreetly, I said.

    So the response from the ‘partner.’

    Libido! I said sex urge.

    Oh,what! He says. I did not mean sexual!

    I interpreted for him. Did you mean life force and attitude?

    Yep.

    Dick!

    English speaking only, no idea of language. Or its roots, for that matter.

    He had an excellent education at Adelaide High. But none that would equip him in terms of language.

  16. @RT/316

    Yeah I done the same, years without seeing doctors, because I was healthy and all, it was just my knee/legs, hearing, learning difficulties that were the problems.

    If your GP said is true at post 305, then your GP should have no drama with you applying for DSP.

  17. @Zoidlord318

    Well the psychologist/assessor I spoke to at Centrelink gave me the impression that there was no question that I would get the DSP – it was just a matter of filling out the paperwork – which was a bit of a surprise, because you always hear how hard they have made it to get on.

    But maybe I’m more ill than I realise.

  18. Thanks for the good wishes crikey whitey.

    Hopefully I will maintain my sanity long enough to keep voting for Tony Abbott to keep the country strong.

    /joke. I didn’t vote for him the first time anyway.

  19. @RT/320

    For some people it can be a great stuff around (IT is why there is so many SSAT and AAT appeals).

    Centerlink can be sympathetic to your situation, it also does help if you are being legit with your conditions as well.

    Persistence & Patience is required.

    They are also a government department and all.

  20. zoidlord when I went into Centrelink with my psychiatrist report it was the first time I’d ever been there where I felt that I wasn’t treated like complete garbage.

    It actually made me suspicious, when the woman was being so nice to me. They are an appalling organisation.

  21. @RT/323

    They have to be that way, especially with the amount of people they deal with on a day to day bases (especially with reports the way some people treat them!).

  22. RT.

    I had attended for many years a GP Bulk Billing practise.

    Which was fine. Until I was very ill and eventually realized that I needed a lot more than a ten minute consult.

    Although it costs me, the GP is au fait with whatever ails me.

    Reason tells me, and it should serve you also, that care is there.

    So take it up.

    It is really bad that you should be undergoing such torments.

  23. Bushfire Bill@296

    am really glad my mind is not filled with useless information on a dead language

    BB, you of all people surely understand that there is no such thing as useless knowledge?

    I learned latin for two years, I have never consciously used it since, but my only regret is that I wasn’t allowed to learn it for the last two years of high school. I learned French for four years, and I am very, very glad I did. I use it most days, since I am forever translating french archaeological papers into english. I use google translate for the heavy lifting, but there is lots that GT doesn’t understand (yet) about french.

    I am at present learning survival german, since I am in germany on a cycling trip from Amsterdam to Copenhagen. I love it. It gives such a sense of accomplishment to understand what people are saying, and to be able to ask simple questions and understand the replies.

    There is no such thing as useless knowledge. What about the physics of light that you use every day for your business?

  24. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The retiring Liberal Senator Sue Boyce has a bit of a spit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-senator-sue-boyce-slams-abbott-sexism-20140621-3al85.html
    And Eggleston also had a bit of a swipe.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pass-budget-let-people-suffer-mp-20140621-3akzn.html
    The ultimate irony! The government will not make public ANY of the 5000 or so submissions on the proposed free speech legislation. It won’t even say what proportion was for or against. How bloody typical of this mob!
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/06/20/brandis-blocks-public-airing-free-speech-submissions
    This is very concerning. It seems Kathy Jackson’s standover man has been actively intimidating all and sundry at the Royal Commission and has been reported to them.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-jacksonville-standover-man,6596
    A push for languages in NSW primary schools. Latin doesn’t seem to be one of them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/language-studies-to-be-overhauled-in-schools-20140621-zsge7.html
    Abbott’s conservative alliances.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/06/20/undressing-abbott%E2%80%99s-conservative-alliance
    The CBA managers who apprently wilfully ignored these frauds deserve to be punished.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/cba-ignored-evidence-of-100m-fraud-20140621-zsh6i.html
    Fiona Nash is heading back into “embattled” territory.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/fiona-nash-conflictofinterest-documents-do-not-exist-20140620-zsgas.html

  25. Section 2 . . .

    Some nice work from Peter FitzSimons.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fitz-abbotts-push-for-school-chaplaincy-is-inexplicable-20140620-zsg95.html
    Tony Wright tries to define “truth” in parliament.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/no-lies-in-parliament-just-truth-deficit-disorders-20140620-zsfx3.html
    This is quite a conundrum now the micro-parties are in.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-crossbench-revolt-if-group-voting-tickets-abolished-20140620-3ajqk.html
    Will a Liberal white knight enter an pay off Ashby’s substantial legal costs?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/james-ashby-faces-paying-peter-slippers-legal-fees-after-aborting-trial-20140620-zsgdp.html
    Under pressure from lobby groups Napthine backs away from legislation to protect home owners from shoddy building practices. Another green light to the spivs?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/the-napthine-government-has-backed-away-from-key-building-reforms-designed-to-better-protect-home-owners-20140621-3al87.html
    72% of Australians want the RET retained. What better motivation does Abbott need to scrap it?
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/21/australians-want-renewable-energy-target-retained-by-big-margin

  26. Morning all. Thanks for the links BK. It will be very hard to sue those CBA men, as they will use the salesman’s defense – “we just sell it, we don’t know if its crud”. Aussie law is weak here.

    On international news, Shiite militias are confident they can stop ISIS. Trouble is, that means the army cannot, and it will be the Iraqi Civil War, Round Two.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-21/iraq-militants-take-border-post-with-syria/5541268

    The only people who thought invading Iraq was a good idea were zionists who saw one of their enemies getting taken out, and the prospect of a Palestinian settlement being put off another ten years. Sadly, it was their mission that was accomplished.

  27. Regarding Cathy Jackson, I have to say her credibility is shredded. If she thinks her non-accounting is OK, it speaks very poorly of the integrity of union administration. It is not OK in any other type of organization. None of that makes Thomson or Williamson innocent, but the ACTU should have cleared out the HSU years ago.

    Work has been quite busy lately so not much posting for me. I hope you are all well. Tony Abbott is not getting any less odious but at least people see through him now. For me the big surprise has been Joe Hockey’s at times quite cynical dishonesty. He has told a pack of lies selling the budget, and been caught out more than once.

    Have a good day all.

  28. Morning all.

    [ Insiders ABC @InsidersABC · 32m
    Coming up on #insiders this morning: @frankellyabc interviews @JulieBishopMP. @jonathanvswan @latingle & Gerard Henderson on the panel. 9am.]

  29. [There is no such thing as useless knowledge. What about the physics of light that you use every day for your business?]

    Never had a doubt about any of that stuff: trigonometry and algebra, basic optics. I lapped up maths and science. I knew it would be useful in some form or another in a technical career. So it wasn’t useless knowledge at all. And still isn’t.

    But Latin was different. On the odd occasion I needed to know about the etymology of a word I looked it up.

  30. [Coming up on #insiders this morning: @frankellyabc interviews @JulieBishopMP. @jonathanvswan @latingle & Gerard Henderson on the panel. 9am.]
    Four Liberals and a neutral – about as balanced as the Hockey budget!

  31. Insiders

    Last appearance for a while for Mr Swan who is off to Washington.

    Lizzie

    Henderson is going to be fun. More unravelling. Probably not as good as on Lateline with McClymont.

  32. Precis of today’s Insiders:

    Gerard Henderson drones on, criticises the ABC, refers to Chifley and Curtin. No-one else gets a word in. Big money is on whether he smiles. Betting currently $7.50.

  33. [Gerard Henderson drones on, criticises the ABC, refers to Chifley and Curtin. No-one else gets a word in. Big money is on whether he smiles. Betting currently $7.50.]

    😆

  34. @joshgnosis: Mike Seccombe described Gerard Henderson as “The Eeyore of Australian public life” and “perennially po-faced” in @SatPaper. #insiders

  35. [BB
    In my review of websites this morning I saw the link to Crabbe and didn’t bother to look at it.]

    A correct decision. I think her basic argument was that there wasn’t enough girly-gushy celebrity stuff in it. There may not have even been a mention of The G-Spot. It’s THAT bad apparently.

  36. “@MrPinkCarpet: It is quite scary the Govt could cancel our passport without a fair trial #insiders our intelligence agencies have been wrong in the past”

  37. Bishop blames the Greens for the Occupied East Jerusalem furore.

    Ignores around two dozen countries for being Greens.

    That’s new.

  38. On Occupation E Jurusalem J Bishop thinks the fault is that of the Greens. When did Senator George Brandis become a Green?

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