The latest batch of polling from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential has had the effect of confirming the shift recorded in last week’s BludgerTrack result, in which a Morgan phone poll drove a slight weakening in Labor’s post-budget lead. Consequently, there are only very slight shifts in this week’s primary vote and two-party preferred totals, with the latter moving to the Coalition by 0.3%. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one seat each in Queensland (which has swung implausibly heavily over recent weeks) and Western Australia, but drops one in Tasmania off a particularly bad showing in this week’s Morgan breakdowns. Newspoll has furnished the leadership ratings with a new set of data, resulting in both leaders copping substantial hits on net approval. Bill Shorten is back to where he was prior to a post-budget bounce, and there is also a substantial move in Tony Abbott’s favour on preferred prime minister, although this largely represents a correction after the post-budget results caused the trend line to overshoot the individual data points.
The biggest of last week’s shifts to have been confirmed by the latest result is a two-point drop for Palmer United, which had risen from a base of around 4% before the Western Australian Senate election to over 7% in the upheaval following the budget. It would have dropped still further if I had included the 3% rating the party recorded in this week’s Newspoll, according to The Australian’s report. However, Palmer United results are not featured in Newspoll’s reporting, and taking advantage of sporadic information that appears in newspaper reports runs the risk of introducing a bias, in that the numbers are more likely to be provided in some circumstances than others. I have thus maintained my usual practice of deriving a Palmer United result from Newspoll by calculating a trend result of the party’s share of the total “others” vote from all other pollsters, and applying that share to Newspoll’s “others” result. So far as this week’s Newspoll result is concerned, this has the unfortunate effect of giving Palmer United a vote share over double that reported by The Australian.
There are other reasons why Palmer United’s recent form is of interest, so I provide below a close-up of the party’s polling trend with the most recent Newspoll excluded. While the trend line commences its descent in the middle of May, observation of the individual data points clearly indicates that the party was still at its record peak until the very end of June, but that it slipped substantially thereafter. Mike Willesee’s report on the party for the Seven Network’s Sunday Night, which aired on June 8, may have had something to do with this.
vic
[KJackson is being questioned about stuff from 2009 at the moment.]
Those the Bank will definitely have.
bemused
except the attitude of girls towards these subjects can be partly explained by….sexism.
Twenty years ago, I was in an ‘English only’ staffroom at a big school. One of the Maths teachers deliberately sought us out to tell us this story…
A girl in a Year 12 Physics class at a neighbouring school put her hand up to ask a question.
The teacher ignored her.
Finally, she asked him why he wasn’t coming to help her with her work.
“There’s no point,” he said. “You’re a girl, you wouldn’t understand it even if I did.”
She reported him for sexism.
Her case was heard by a panel of (male) Physics teachers, who found that the teacher shouldn’t be disciplined because he was merely stating a fact about girls.
….I will add that one of my (women) friends is regarded as one of Australia’s top physicists…
Might not seem significant to many here, but this landmark decision will perhaps generate pressure against NFL gridiron team owner’s refusal to change his team’s name to one which does not offend Native Americans. He’s exercising, as our enlightened AG Brandis has expressed it so eloquently, his right. A high % of national sports commentators have urged this to be changed, but a majority of team’s season ticket holders evidently want the name retained. (Note: NFL season tickets are very expensive, so this is a different demographic than, say, can afford to attend my Illawarra Cutters’ matches).
There are many teams with icons which Native Americans have approved because they don’t have this negative connotation: Illinois Fighting Illini, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Blackhawks etc.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-19/washington-redskins-lose-copyright-to-name/5534506
[The name of the American football team the Washington Redskins is disparaging to native Americans and the trademark should be cancelled, the US Patent and Trademark Office has ruled.
The decision, which the American football team can appeal, is a victory for American Indians and their supporters for whom “redskins” is racially charged word.
In a statement, the Patent Office said five Native American petitioners had “met their burden to establish that the term ‘Redskins’ was disparaging of Native Americans, when used in relation to professional football services”.
While the team can keep using the name, it will no longer enjoy the protection from copyright infringement and counterfeiting that comes with federal registration, it said.
Dan Snyder, owner of the National Football League (NFL) franchise, has been adamant about retaining the name despite a growing national campaign spearheaded by the Oneida tribe in upstate New York.]
An additional reason why the Washington club’s case has generated widespread disputation is because of this being the home team of the District of Columbia.
BTW, excellent job by BK for the Dawn Patrol yet again! :>)
Going out for lunch now ——cheers!
@Atticus/153
Copyright IP and Copyright Infringement in the USA has gone completely nuts.
No DD election. Spineless wimp.
zoomster@152
I have never encountered anything remotley like what you describe and I have met quite a lot of maths/science teachers. What century was that in?
My own experience re maths and physics at my childrens’ school is nothing but encourgagement for girls to do these subjects. As previously mentioned by me. Older daughter was only girl that did physics and specialist maths in her year 12 year. And then when she went onto uni to do her electrical engineering degree. Only girl in her course.
Her experience was that girls did not particularly like doing these subjects and were more interested in legal studies, psychology, biology, languages, and literature
zoomster
[A girl in a Year 12 Physics class at a neighbouring school put her hand up to ask a question.
The teacher ignored her.
Finally, she asked him why he wasn’t coming to help her with her work.]
I’ve had a young lady who did Electrical Engineering not too many years ago at a Sydney university tell me almost exactly the same thing.
I can hardly wait to read this:
[The prime minister is likely to include a message in Centrelink’s “News for Seniors” publication to explain the unpopular budget and the “current financial situation” to 2.4 million pensioners and concession card holders.
The chief executive of the Council on the Ageing, Ian Yates, said he hoped the prime minister would not use the opportunity to repeat his claim that “pensions are not being cut” without “explaining the very narrow interpretation of cut that he uses to back up that position”…
The regular Centrelink publication “News for Seniors”, usually sent in July, will contain factual information about the budget and a message from the minister, as it does every year. This year it may also contain “an additional letter from the prime minister”, a spokesman for the human services minister, Marise Payne, has confirmed.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/18/tony-abbott-message-likely-to-be-in-centrelink-publication-for-seniors
The most interesting thing about the Abbott/Morrison presser was that we could hear all the questions and see the questioners. I want this every time.
I should add that the maths and science teachers at my childrens school do their best to encourage both boys and girls in year 7 and year 8 to pursue and challenge themselves to pursue higher level maths and sciences.
[@MichaelPascoe01: @TheKouk poor sad Oz – without a Labor govt to campaign against, it finds itself without purpose. Desperate to refight even old skirmishes]
People need to bear in mind that when Labor was handed the golden opportunity to get rid of the disgraceful Howard brainfart chaplaincy program, they instead did everything in their power to keep it alive.
Labor is IMHO equally culpable here.
If people want this thing to stay dead, they need to focus on Labor’s pathetic, hypocritical position as much as the Government’s bigoted (but at least honest) position.
Public taxes should never be spent to support the indoctrination of children in particular faiths.
http://www.news.com.au/national/legal-opinion-to-nsw-premier-says-the-former-foreign-minister-hasnt-formally-quit/story-fncynjr2-1226959654711
Did I not say last year that Carr would have to resign twice? Was I not told I was (as usual) wRONg? Was I not right?
[There are laws in draft and about to come into place that will enshrine the interests and legal status of transnational corporations so that they will forever be able to ignore the merely voted for laws in the localities in which they happen to find themselves and sanction any government who attempt to stand up to them.
Underpinning this bleak enthronement of the dismal science, this sovereignty of the market, is the exhaustion and corruption of the Enlightenment Project. Smart people don’t believe in anything anymore. They talk about the Wisdom of Crowds, they talk about the money markets. They don’t talk about freedom and justice and truth. I should feel embarrassed even to type the words. Such ideas are fine for the public prints, but proper grown up folk only ever talk about power.
And it is this power, as ever, in its modern, weary guise, that guides the flow of what Kurt Vonnegut called “The Great Money River”, with that flow of capital being the only good, the only value that anyone believes in. Everything else is dust and ashes.
In this weary atmosphere of nihilism and wealth accumulation….]
Peter Arnott
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/06/18/what-are-project-fear-so-afraid-of/
lizzie
[The most interesting thing about the Abbott/Morrison presser was that we could hear all the questions and see the questioners.]
I assume the presser was put on due to the Gov’t not traveling well so lets talk about ‘boats’.
victoria@157
You experience is more like what I have seen.
But there are more girls like your daughter and good on them.
As a smoker, who has not had a smoke for over four months i will give my view on plan packs…. I loved them, I could smoke my cheep long beach smokes without fear of being teased over my choice of brands because everything was green.
I gave up the smokes because of cost pressure, wife pressure and those TV Ads that make you feel bad in your own home with your Kids sitting next to you. I could not care what colour of the pack was. Same with the warnings on the pack! i was used to them and did not care and just ignored them until you dont notice them at all.
Phespos
[Did I not say last year that Carr would have to resign twice?]
I remember you saying this and explaining why.
I don’t remember the counter arguments.
Swamprat
I wonder if its constitutional to sign a treaty that gives corporations power with no redress from domestic laws.
I can certainly see a challenge on that basis at some stage.
[@MichaelPascoe01: @TheKouk poor sad Oz – without a Labor govt to campaign against, it finds itself without purpose. Desperate to refight even old skirmishes]
The GG has come down with Gerard Henderson Syndrome.
guytaur
Don’t we already have that in the US “Free” Trade Agreement?
ALP made no attempt to amend anything to FTA’s when in Government.
I am not a lawyer nor an economist…..
CTar1
What amused me was that Abbott was being “I am a reasonable man” over everything, including dealing with Senate, but he couldn’t resist the big warnings about Iraq war, border safety and terrorism. And Morrison managed to gazump him by having the last say. But as I rarely listen to Morrison, I can’t remember which point he made 😀
poroti
The ever confident SNP has brought out a draft interim constitution…..
[“In Scotland , the People are sovereign” says the top line of the new Scottish Constitution proposed this week by Nicola Sturgeon. Well, I’ve looked it up. And in Scotland, in England in Wales and Northern Ireland, Elizabeth Windsor Saxe-Coburg Battenburg is sovereign.
To say otherwise is treason, I’m delighted to report.] 🙂
Swamprat
Not from rhetoric that has gone on. Or could be a case of nothing has happened yet to give rise to a challenge.
It just seems so wrong I wonder if there is a case for it being unconstitutional. It does seem like its selling out our sovereignity
Media are now – finally – picking up on the whole “New government controversy is always followed by BOATS press conference” pattern.
[And in Scotland, in England in Wales and Northern Ireland, Elizabeth Windsor Saxe-Coburg Battenburg is sovereign.]
Well, yes, but an independent Scotland would be able to change that, just as Australia did (perhaps inadvertently) in 1901.
[ rummel
Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 12:20 pm | Permalink
As a smoker, who has not had a smoke for over four months
]
———————————————————
I think it was Mark Twain that said : “Giving up smoking is the easiest thing in the world. I know because I’ve done it thousands of times.”
As a former smoker – I know just how hard it is to give up – so GOOD ON YOU, Rummel !!!!
Now if we just do something positive with your brand of politics rather than your brand of cigarettes 😉
[I wonder if its constitutional to sign a treaty that gives corporations power with no redress from domestic laws.]
No, it’s not constitutional. In particular, Parliament could not exclude the Courts from being the final arbiter of legal disputes and could not allow some other body to make law beyond what is permitted via delegation of power currently (which is a well understood area of law, i.e. regulation making and the like).
“@Simon_Cullen: Federal Labor says it’ll work with the Govt to ensure the school chaplaincy program continues.”
bemused
as I said, twenty years ago…but not an isolated incident.
The atmosphere is different now, I know – but a lot of those teaching still come from the era where those views were common, and it also helps explain the lack of female Physics/Maths teachers, particularly senior ones.
Role models are important.
That said, my sons were both taught higher Maths and Physics by brilliant women!
[ But then I am just a hopeless old misogynist… ]
As you have demonstrated consistently here on PB.
[Federal Labor says it’ll work with the Govt to ensure the school chaplaincy program continues.]
You have got to be ****ing kidding me.
Does the Labor party have any actual values at all?
PB
Joe Bullock exercising his influence perhaps?
Yes, what is the ALP logic here?
If we’re talking about FTAs/the TPP in particular, the FTA that Howard signed up to as far as I know did not include ISDS – that was a bridge too far even for Howard.
As far as the legal basis for trade agreements Australia signs up to – I’m still a little unclear on all the mechanisms, but as I understand it:
* the executive has the power to sign us up to agreements by itself – it doesn’t need parliament to approve.
* However, this doesn’t, in itself, have any legal weight (in my limited understanding). Once a trade agreement is signed it needs legislation passed by parliament to implement our end of the agreement – changes to tariffs, IP regime changes, etc.
* ie I believe the Senate has the power to block any such legislation to implement the TPP. What this means for the agreement is where I remain unclear – I would imagine that parliament failing to pass enabling legislation in part or in full presumably means we haven’t met the conditions for upholding our end of the agreement, but what that means overall presumably depends on the wording of whatever is actually signed.
But as far as I can see there would be a good chance that the TPP would fail in the new Senate – Palmer is unlikely to find much in the TPP to his liking, and plenty to bang the nationalist/populist drum in opposing. Presumably the Greens would automatically be opposed. The ALP may decide to wave it through, although I hope they don’t.
Patrick
[Federal Labor says it’ll work with the Govt to ensure the school chaplaincy program continues.]
I agree this is bull sh#t and I wonder why they’d do this.
swamprat
The latest in a never ending series of “Good grief” headlines in UK tabloids
[China signals opposition to Scottish independence]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10907088/China-signals-opposition-to-Scottish-independence.html
[Pope voices fears over Scottish independence]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10897888/Pope-voices-fears-over-Scottish-independence.html
[Gordon Brown warns an independent Scotland faces higher TV licence fee]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10896354/Gordon-Brown-warns-an-independent-Scotland-faces-higher-TV-licence-fee.html
185
Not being the subject of attacks from the religious lobby.
[Yes, what is the ALP logic here?]
Labor Right want it = Labor Right get it.
Pretty bloody obvious.
Player One@182
Yes, to the same extent you have consistently shown yourself to be a farqwit of the highest order.
[Well, yes, but an independent Scotland would be able to change that, just as Australia did (perhaps inadvertently) in 1901.
]
What are you claiming we did in 1901?
I really hope an Iman takes advantage of the Chaplaincy programme. That will make a lot think and some good screaming headlines for the Tele.
Who’s afraid of Fred Nile 😆 😆
Or that other geezer who says he’s the leader of the “Christian Lobby” but hasn’t been elected by anyone much. Just a blowhard.
There are surely many Labor MPs who want a neutral government, not a religious one?
rummel
Haven’t smoked now for nearly 7 years. Stick with it, you’ll feel better but I promise unfortunately that you will always miss having a smoke.
[Cheap Samsung Galaxy S4 knock-off ships with spyware sending data back to China]
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/cheap-samsung-galaxy-s5-knockoff-ships-with-spyware-sending-data-back-to-china-9545774.html
guytaur@193
Why stop there? How about the Pastafarians, the Satanists etc.
192
A constitution requiring a referendum to change it (I would guess would be Psephos`s argument).
Bloody hell, what do we have to do to kill this chaplaincy snake?
bemused
Good point.