BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

In lieu of any substantial shifts on voting intention to report this week, a closer look at Palmer United’s recent dip in the polls.

The latest batch of polling from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential has had the effect of confirming the shift recorded in last week’s BludgerTrack result, in which a Morgan phone poll drove a slight weakening in Labor’s post-budget lead. Consequently, there are only very slight shifts in this week’s primary vote and two-party preferred totals, with the latter moving to the Coalition by 0.3%. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one seat each in Queensland (which has swung implausibly heavily over recent weeks) and Western Australia, but drops one in Tasmania off a particularly bad showing in this week’s Morgan breakdowns. Newspoll has furnished the leadership ratings with a new set of data, resulting in both leaders copping substantial hits on net approval. Bill Shorten is back to where he was prior to a post-budget bounce, and there is also a substantial move in Tony Abbott’s favour on preferred prime minister, although this largely represents a correction after the post-budget results caused the trend line to overshoot the individual data points.

The biggest of last week’s shifts to have been confirmed by the latest result is a two-point drop for Palmer United, which had risen from a base of around 4% before the Western Australian Senate election to over 7% in the upheaval following the budget. It would have dropped still further if I had included the 3% rating the party recorded in this week’s Newspoll, according to The Australian’s report. However, Palmer United results are not featured in Newspoll’s reporting, and taking advantage of sporadic information that appears in newspaper reports runs the risk of introducing a bias, in that the numbers are more likely to be provided in some circumstances than others. I have thus maintained my usual practice of deriving a Palmer United result from Newspoll by calculating a trend result of the party’s share of the total “others” vote from all other pollsters, and applying that share to Newspoll’s “others” result. So far as this week’s Newspoll result is concerned, this has the unfortunate effect of giving Palmer United a vote share over double that reported by The Australian.

There are other reasons why Palmer United’s recent form is of interest, so I provide below a close-up of the party’s polling trend with the most recent Newspoll excluded. While the trend line commences its descent in the middle of May, observation of the individual data points clearly indicates that the party was still at its record peak until the very end of June, but that it slipped substantially thereafter. Mike Willesee’s report on the party for the Seven Network’s Sunday Night, which aired on June 8, may have had something to do with this.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,296 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Iraq Everlasting

    We are still stuck in 2003, and it isn’t (only) George W. Bush’s fault.

    It’s the default position of liberals to lay the blame for this apocalyptic legacy—a failing Iraq, unchecked international jihadism, a neo-isolationist America—on the Bushies, who deployed cooked evidence and outright lies to sell the country on the war and then executed their own strategy with breathtaking recklessness and incompetence. The Iraq War cheerleaders on the right, whether think-tank-funded neocon armchair generals or flag-pin-bearing bloviators at Fox News, are also easily identifiable culprits in this story. So are those reporters and editors in the mainstream press who at best failed to vet and at worst jingoistically inflated Bush-administration propaganda about Saddam’s nonexistent weapons of mass destruction.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Government pettiness on display.
    Ashby v Slipper. Game over. No result. Lot in a legal sense anyway. Dirty money wins.
    The powerful doctors’ union describes Abbott’s $7 co-payment as an ideological toy.
    Nothing to worry about – Abbott will give the responsibility to another “conservationist” Can-Do Newman!
    A NSW Liberal MP member of the IPA writes that Brandis and the IPA have got it wrong on 18c.
    And to think that the disgusting dinosaur Bullock has supplanted Louise Pratt in the Senate! In her final speech she implores the government to get rid of religious chaplains from our schools.
    George Williams looks at how crucial Clive Palmer’s Senators will be.
    Another issue facing Senate blockage. What did Dee Madigan say? That’s right, “The budget is shit!”
    Alan Jones could go down to Bendigo for a guest spot on local radio. That would fix it.
    The Federal Court will allow TV coverage of the upcoming Hird/Essendon directions hearing.

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Julian Burnside proposes some alternatives for dealing with asylum seekers.
    Now we’ll see what David Johnston’s made of!–at–hmas-leeuwin-naval-base-20140618-3acu5.html
    Help me with what Pat Campbell is on about here. Is it the foreign aid announcement?

    I don’t know what has happened with the Fairfax websites lately. The number of new cartoons available for viewing has been severely reduced.

  4. Morning all.

    Thanks for the links BK. The cartoons disappearing is not good. I’ve come to rely on my daily fix of pics. 🙁

  5. [Mr Slipper said: ”Any suggestion by Mr Ashby that the Full Court of the Federal Court found that the allegations of harassment had occurred is wholly incorrect. The Full Court decision meant that Mr Ashby could bring his allegations before the court to be tested, something which he has now declined to do. I am pleased to be so completely and publicly vindicated]

    The last sentence is a stretch but everything else is 100% correct

  6. CTar1

    A very interesting character in The Independent’s “100 Moments” series.

    [Guerrilla in the mist – a great German military maverick outwits the British again

    There was only one German general in the First World War who managed to occupy British territory.

    ….Indeed, Lettow-Vorbeck would have a special clause in the Armistice of November 1918 specifically devoted to the arrangements for the safe conduct of himself and his men at the end of the war……….Lettow-Vorbeck’s “army” comprised some 14,000 men…… but it meant that disproportionate imperial allied forces – perhaps 300,000 strong – would be tied down.]–a-great-german-military-maverick-outwits-the-british-again-9547030.html

  7. Mark Latham assesses the TURC evidence from last week

    [The public record is strikingly clear. There is not a single document from the 1990s that incriminates Gillard. On the available paperwork, she provided valid legal advice and paid for her home renovations via personal cheques. By the standards of his police training, Smith has come up empty-handed.

    Documents aside, what verbal evidence has come before the commission concerning Gillard? Like a parade of ageing Oompa Loompas, three impish men – Ralph Blewitt, Wayne Hem and Athol James – claimed to remember cash being exchanged in and around her Melbourne home.

    Indeed, the nature of their recollections is remarkably similar.

    In the witness box, the three veterans struggled to recall other events and details from 20 years ago. Under cross-examination, they were unclear about the amount of money involved and why it had been handed over.

    None of them accused Gillard of knowing where the cash had actually come from. Rather, the commission was left with a vague impression of money floating around the house – claims that cannot be proven or disproven.]

  8. An important rebuttal from the Kouk to the SmearStralian habit of playing the man

    [The editorial then moves on to defend the industry data that was the trigger for the Kerr story – data that no one other than those working at The Australian have seen. I have asked to see the data so I can enhance my knowledge of the issue but so far, have not been able to view it. The secrecy that surrounds this industry data – which was the basis of the story – is enlightening. I suspect the data are shonky and The Australian is embarrassed to release them for fear they will raise questions about the survey sample and its timing, among other things.

  9. I’m nobody’s expert on soccer, but it seems to me that the unkindest evaluation of their result against the Netherlands ought to be “exceeds expectations”.

    Zoomster’s son was clearly wrong about the relative plausibility of the existence of God or the possibility of an upset win. 54 minutes in, it was on.

  10. Australian Soccer reviewed by the UK Telegraph

    [They’re passing the ball nicely, neat stuff. Highly impressive given the talent pool available football being a minority sport there, I mean, its popularity below AFL, rugby league, rugby union, cricket, fooling around in the sheepdip, being in Neighbours and moving to the UK to work in Shepherd’s Bush; and coming just above book learnin’.]

  11. KJackson will be giving further evidence today at the TURC.

    Of course, all she has managed to tell the commission so far, is that all important paperwork were conveniently destroyed in a flood. Mind you other union people have said that the offices did not get flooded.

    Also bank statements can’t be provided because they were destroyed. But seriously, why cant copies of same be requested from the bank. In light of the cost of this commission, obtaining copies of bank statements, is a very small cost in the scheme of things, And why did the The commissioner not ask her why she did not get copies of same.

    In the same breath, she says that she withdrew cash from the account and handed cash amounts to members at the meetings. Really? Also she managed at the end to suggest Shorten involved in branch stacking.

    KJackson is as pure as the driven snow and everyone else is crooked. What a surprise

  12. Fran

    You’d think that perhaps in their eagerness to save expenditure, the Coal might consider Burnside’s suggestions.
    But apparently money can only be “saved” when in pursuit of their ideology.

  13. The LNP is saying the Commonwealth will NOT invest in even the most important works for the nation, if the State does not privatise something!!!!

    Its Abbott saying to the Sates “Sell your siht to my corporate mates and sponsors or else I’ll not give you any Federal money!!”

    It’s blackmail

  14. Morning all. Well done Socceroos, a gallant effort against a great opposing team. Kudos to Tony Abbott for his inspiring words of support to the team in our hour of need. No hang on, the dork didn’t say anything, still hiding from the media! I wonder if Abbott even knew the game was on?

    I think PM Credlin will soon need to appoint a new media spokesperson. Abbott one is not up to the job.

    Bad luck Qld in State of Origin too. Still, eight in a row is not bad.

    In other news the government is not going to force a DD on us. How magnanimous! 🙂
    Have a good day all.

  15. [The World Heritage Committee has delivered a harsh verdict on the Abbott Government’s failure to protect the Great Barrier Reef tonight, voting to keep alive their threat to list our Australian icon as “in danger”.

    The Committee expressed its serious “concern and regret” with the Abbott Government’s plans for Australia’s environment in the deliberation of its decision regarding the Reef, including the decision by Tony Abbott and Greg Hunt to allow the dumping of 3 million cubic metres of dredge spoil in Reef Waters at Abbot Point – despite the Government’s best efforts to have those words removed.

    At its annual meeting, the Committee also reiterated its concern about the handover of federal environmental approval powers to the Queensland Government, labelling it as “premature”.]

  16. lizzie

    KJackson is either delusional or believes she is going to be protected. It is extremely laughable and quite ridiculous that the Commission do not have copies of bank statements relating to accounts she used as part of her role in the HSU. We have to believe that nothing is backed up on discs or computer files.

    The Counsel assisting expected Bruce Wilson to remember stuff from over 20 years ago, and yet KJackson does not have to produce one shred of documentary evidence for stuff in this century

  17. lizzie

    Of course she has a nasty side. The whole coalition do. Remember she did meet with Blewett when they were trying to discredit JGillard.

    Blewett is hardly what you would call a person of good character.

  18. lizzie:

    I think JBishop has been the more competent of the front bench. It isn’t saying much simply because of the depths of incompetence in the ministry.

  19. I have a feeling that Kathy Jackson will need to do more than flash her ample cleavage when cross examinations start after August.

  20. Good Morning

    Julian Burnside brings some sanity into the debate.

    His point about processing in Indonesia totally stops the drowning argument.

    Thus we see the cheaper practical humane solution. Labor needs to rethink this instead of letting the LNP cruel inhumanity be Australia’s values.

  21. victoria

    [Remember she did meet with Blewett when they were trying to discredit JGillard.]

    I’d forgotten that.


    They say that JBishop listens to her department, unlike many other ministers.

  22. I wonder if it is one of “our” companies ?

    [African firm is selling pepper-spray bullet firing drones

    South Africa-based Desert Wolf told the BBC it had secured the sale of 25 units to a mining company after showing off the tech at a trade show.
    “We cannot disclose the customer, but I am allowed to say it will be used by an international mining house…..firm says it can also be armed with dye-marker balls and solid plastic balls.

    The machine can carry up to 4,000 bullets at a time as well as “blinding lasers” and on-board speakers that can communicate warnings to a crowd]

  23. [@Vic_Rollison 10h
    Everything you need to know about Australia’s mainstream media you can find in the absence of reports about Kathy Jackson and James Ashby.]

  24. Tweet from the AFR

    [Founder of #tech news website @delimiterau, @renailemay, joins staff of @Greens @SenatorLudlam. #ausbiz #auspol…]

  25. guytaur

    Report on the front pages of the Oz and SMH indicate Australians are fighting for the insurgents.

    Also front page of The Age has story on mosque being approved in regional city of Bendigo here in Victoria. The residents are up in arms.

    Can you see how little concern Australians have for asylum seekers coming from this part of the world in this current climate

  26. guytaur

    i should add that residents at the Bendigo council meeting last night said that if muslims want a mosque, they can go back to the Middle east and build one.

    Many Australians dont have much of an appetite for asylum seekers coming from this part of the world. That is the reality

  27. Tweet from Michael Pascoe

    [@TheKouk poor sad Oz – without a Labor govt to campaign against, it finds itself without purpose. Desperate to refight even old skirmishes]

  28. victoria

    One of the muslims in favour of the mosque did say that many protesters were from “out of town” and he had not met with the prejudice.

  29. victoria

    Education is the solution. Those radicalised muslims going to fight are Australian born not imported. Its why its so shocking to many.

    Demonisation has borne its fruit.

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