BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

In lieu of any substantial shifts on voting intention to report this week, a closer look at Palmer United’s recent dip in the polls.

The latest batch of polling from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential has had the effect of confirming the shift recorded in last week’s BludgerTrack result, in which a Morgan phone poll drove a slight weakening in Labor’s post-budget lead. Consequently, there are only very slight shifts in this week’s primary vote and two-party preferred totals, with the latter moving to the Coalition by 0.3%. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one seat each in Queensland (which has swung implausibly heavily over recent weeks) and Western Australia, but drops one in Tasmania off a particularly bad showing in this week’s Morgan breakdowns. Newspoll has furnished the leadership ratings with a new set of data, resulting in both leaders copping substantial hits on net approval. Bill Shorten is back to where he was prior to a post-budget bounce, and there is also a substantial move in Tony Abbott’s favour on preferred prime minister, although this largely represents a correction after the post-budget results caused the trend line to overshoot the individual data points.

The biggest of last week’s shifts to have been confirmed by the latest result is a two-point drop for Palmer United, which had risen from a base of around 4% before the Western Australian Senate election to over 7% in the upheaval following the budget. It would have dropped still further if I had included the 3% rating the party recorded in this week’s Newspoll, according to The Australian’s report. However, Palmer United results are not featured in Newspoll’s reporting, and taking advantage of sporadic information that appears in newspaper reports runs the risk of introducing a bias, in that the numbers are more likely to be provided in some circumstances than others. I have thus maintained my usual practice of deriving a Palmer United result from Newspoll by calculating a trend result of the party’s share of the total “others” vote from all other pollsters, and applying that share to Newspoll’s “others” result. So far as this week’s Newspoll result is concerned, this has the unfortunate effect of giving Palmer United a vote share over double that reported by The Australian.

There are other reasons why Palmer United’s recent form is of interest, so I provide below a close-up of the party’s polling trend with the most recent Newspoll excluded. While the trend line commences its descent in the middle of May, observation of the individual data points clearly indicates that the party was still at its record peak until the very end of June, but that it slipped substantially thereafter. Mike Willesee’s report on the party for the Seven Network’s Sunday Night, which aired on June 8, may have had something to do with this.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,296 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 26
1 2 3 … 26

  2. lizzie

    Could well be the case. The attitude I have encountered from most people i come into contact with, do not like the idea of a mosque in their area. These are people who are very caring and progressive, but the idea of a mosque is a step too far for them. That is the reality i experience

  3. My fifth (and for the moment final) post on political donations in Australia: Nathan Tinkler & Co: Political Donors Anonymous tracks some of the shadowy gifts.

    “Is anyone apart from corruption commissions monitoring the laws? Is anyone enforcing them?

    Are the laws adequate to ensure transparency, honesty, accountability and enforcement?”

    Looking forward to 4 Corners cash-for-favours program next Monday.

  4. victoria

    Irrational fear. No calls to prayer for instance. I live not far from a mosque and it has less impact on the suburb than a church does.

  5. There are also many people who would jump up and down at the prospect of a happy clapper church going up in the neighborhood.

  8. Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,

  10. “@davrosz: Isn’t it incredible that every document that could possibly clear Jackson has been lost, and only those that incriminate her remain? #turc”

  14. victoria

    The seat of Murray – featured here only a few days ago – is one of the most conservative in the country, but its main city, Shepparton, is host to a substantial number of refugees, including many from the Middle East and the Sudan.

    My son played soccer for one of the NE junior teams, and we had to travel to Shepp for training and home games – it was great to see Moslem girls (with every limb bandaged and wearing head scarves) in the team, and one of our best players was Sudanese.

    It was obvious that the Shepp community had (by and large) embraced them.

  18. [It was obvious that the Shepp community had (by and large) embraced them.]

    That’s great to see. But I bet if they wanted to build a mosque there, the response may be somewhat different.

  19. It seems that some Imams who preach at the mosques are part of the trouble, backward-looking. There have been examples in Oz and UK.

  20. [There are also many people who would jump up and down at the prospect of a happy clapper church going up in the neighborhood.]
    And I would be one of them!

  21. [guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:21 am | PERMALINK
    Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,]

    The same thing has happened in Canberra where a tiny group has mounted an ACT Supreme Court challenge to the granting of planning approval. Otherwise there is little or no objection to the proposal.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-21/act-planners-too-chummy-with-gungahlin-mosque-developers/5337622

  23. [Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,]

    Lol

  25. BK:

    [ There are also many people who would jump up and down at the prospect of a happy clapper church going up in the neighborhood.

    And I would be one of them!]

    Me too! Luckily my local council pulled the plug on a Hillsong mega-church, due to community resistance.

  26. victoria@23

    JBishop being interviewed on ABC radio. Have to say that she is probably the best minister in this hopeless govt.

    I would have to agree with you there.
    She lacks the studied nastiness of some and the sheer stupidity of others.

  27. “@jessedorsett: #BREAKING Northern Land Council withdraws nomination of Muckerty Station in NT as site for Australia’s first nuclear waste dump. @abcnews”

  28. [ Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,]

    Yep, those angry folks at Camden in far western Sydney are certainly concerned about parking. These are the same folks worried about refugees clogging up traffic on the freeways.

  30. I have the Armenian Evangelical Church a Malcolm Blight torpedo kick from my door.

    This is not surprising when Jo Hockey is my federal member, Gladys Berejiklian is my state member and Vache Kahramanian was a recent candidate at a council election.

    Place is as quite as a mouse.

  32. As someone who doesn’t normally come into contact with the Daily Telecrap, I was amazed by the standard of journalism on display when having a coffee far away from my usual place.

    A prominent story, backed up by an Editorial proclaimed that viewer anger over bias (left wing of course) on the ABC was rising. Shock horror!!! I thought, but on what basis was this startling piece of investigative journalism produced??

    Why a whole 12, yes 12 complaints to ACMA (?), none of which were upheld!! Surely this spells the end of the credibility of the ABC.

    I think this Murdoch shit sheet operates on the basis that its readers only get as far as the headlines.

  33. guytaur, I’d object to a Hillsong mega-church for the same reason I’d object to a Wahhabist mosque. I take exception to any radical or ultra-conservative religious movement, whether its Christian or Muslim. I have no objection to churches or mosques per se.

  37. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those nutjobs from Q Society are part of the objectors in Bendigo. They’re based in Altona and have nothing to do with Bendigo.

  41. Most of the real objections to both mosques and church’s are to do with noise and parking.

    Once they are dealt with there is usually very little objection,

    I have to agree to this. And it’s only the minority in the congregation too who chose to park their car inappropriately, usually those who show up really late or can’t be arsed walking further.

    Not too different from a shopping centre on a big sale day with not enough parking.

  42. Hmmm. Ruling against the Fed government being able to fund chaplains is presumably the whole thorny question of the Feds being able to direct funding to State-level entities, and probably brings the whole constitutional issue of the Feds funding local government road programs etc into urgent focus.

    In the end it just means the State governments will have to be dealt in as the recipients of any funding.

    I don’t see this as a good thing, but I don’t see it preventing idiocy like the chaplains program … the Feds just have to give the money to the States with promises that the money will be used for what the Feds want it to be used for.

    ie if Pyne really just wants to fund Christian chaplains in schools, he will find a way to do it. It’s just that the current way of doing it isn’t ok according to the High Court, apparently.

  45. Weird.

    [Andrew Casey ‏
    Tension in #turc hearing rooms is such that one person has now hired personal security to sit with them while observing proceedings]

  46. Jackol

    An interesting question can the Federal Government continue to blackmail the states over funding unless they it in a certain way.

    Coag coud really become a meeting of equals on issues instead of the current dominance of the Feds.

  47. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, June 19, 2014 at 9:49 am | PERMALINK
    The kiwi tory PM scored an invite PMBO would never get.

    (Bill)Clinton suggested a meeting at a French restaurant. Mr Key had Caesar salad and Mr Clinton had salmon.
    They talked about Iraq and what New Zealand could do in Africa with its agricultural expertise

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11276821 ]

    While Key goes on an international charm offensive, Abbott goes to offend as many people as possible (except his new best friend in Canadia).

    On a Hawaii stopover on a previous trip Key got to play golf with Obama. Abbott not so.

  48. guytaur –

    Coag coud really become a meeting of equals on issues instead of the current dominance of the Feds.

    I think it clearly shifts power at least a little back in favour of the States.

    But, as I’m an abolish-the-States kind of guy I don’t see this as a good thing.

  50. Poor reporter on ABC24 IMO.

    Q. What was Mr Williams’ objection to chaplains in schools?
    A. I don’t know. He just didn’t like it.

    Not good enough.

Comments Page 2 of 26
1 2 3 … 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *