Seat of the week: Murray

The northern Victorian seat of Murray is one of a number of seats in rural New South Wales and Victoria which have drifted from the Nationals to the Liberals after long-serving sitting members retired, Sharman Stone having secured the seat once held by Jack McEwen in 1996.

Blue numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Murray covers central northern Victoria including a 200 kilometre stretch of the river that bears its name, from Gunbower east through Echuca to Yarrawonga and Bundalong. From there it extends southwards into the Goulburn Valley region as far as Inglewood in the west and Nagambie and Euroa in the east. Its largest population centre by a considerable margin is Shepparton, home to about a third of its population, followed by Echuca, which accounts for about 10%. The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its boundaries resembled those of Echuca which existed from federation until its abolition in 1937, when its territory was divided between Bendigo in the west and Indi in the east. Its dimensions have not substantially changed at any time since 1949, apart from a slight reorientation westwards when the electorate of Wimmera was abolished in 1984.

The area in question was the domain of the Country Party from its formation in 1920 until 1996, when Sharman Stone won Murray for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd. John McEwen began his federal parliamentary career as the member for Echuca in 1934 before moving to Indi when it was abolished the following term, then transferred to Murray in 1949 and remained there until his retirement in 1971. McEwen served as leader of the Country Party after 1958 and, for three weeks following Harold Holt’s disappearance at the end of 1967, Prime Minister. McEwen was succeeded on his retirement in 1971 by Bruce Lloyd, who held the seat until 1996. In a sadly typical outcome for the Nationals, the seat fell to the Liberals when Lloyd retired in 1996, Sharman Stone outpolling the Nationals candidate 43.2% to 29.7% and prevailing by 3.7% after the distribution of preferences. The Liberals had intermittently fielded candidates against Lloyd throughout his career, but always finished third behind Labor.

Sharman Stone served as a parliamentary secretary from after the 1998 election until January 2006, when she was promoted to the junior ministry as Workforce Participation Minister. After the 2007 election defeat she assumed environment, heritage, the arts and indigenous affairs, the first named being shared with shadow cabinet member Greg Hunt, before being promoted to shadow cabinet in the immigration and citizenship portfolio when Malcolm Turnbull became leader in September 2008. However, she was demoted to the outer shadow ministry position of early childhood education and childcare when Turnbull was replaced by Tony Abbott in December 2009, having supported Turnbull during Abbott’s leadership challenge, and relegated to the back bench after the 2010 election. In February 2014, Stone accused Abbott of Joe Hockey of lying about union conditions for workers at the SPC Ardmona cannery in Shepparton after the government’s rejection of a bid for $25 million in assistance put the future of its 2700 jobs in doubt. When asked at the time if she intended to remain in the Liberal Party, Stone said only that it was “to be seen how things pan out”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

598 comments on “Seat of the week: Murray”

Comments Page 7 of 12
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  1. Psephos is going the full ‘Blair’

    Never go full Blair…

    🙂

    “It is now being subjected to invasion by an Islamist militia based in Syria.”

    Ummmm wasn’t this from Iraq originally. Given they started as “Al Qaeda in Iraq”? and Iraq had never really dealt with them.

    This is pretty much what people predicted just before the Iraq War in 2003. That it would turn into a Shia – Sunni Civil War.

  3. Psephos

    “Second, the Sunni Arab minority has not much loyalty to the Iraqi state. This has partly been caused by policies of the Maliki government, but is mainly due to continuing Sunni resentment that their monopoly of power has been ended by three successive free elections, which naturally produced a Shia-led government.”

    Do you really believe this?

    Seriously?

    Culturally, I don’t believe many Iraqis have a State loyalty. Or if they do it comes after family, tribe, and religious affiliation.

  4. Psephos

    Thank you for stating that you don’t know the numbers of asylum seeker deaths in the short period since Rudd’s changes.

  7. [Some rental law experts quietly spreading word VCAT decision favouring Frances Abbott “unprecedented” and “stunning.”]

    What is more stunning is that the Abbott’s didn’t realise they had made an error and paid the money to get out of the lease (like every other renter). Plus why is Peta Credlin arranging digs for the PM’s kid? Oh sorry – silly me.

  8. [chris murphy ‏@chrismurphys 22h
    Sick psychopathic opportunism. AbbottPM politicises US cancer sufferer as he disables our medical care. #auspol pic.twitter.com/enQ1nDsRv3 ]

    I thought this was a bit strange, too.

  9. Newspoll prediction a 2 pt lift in Coalition primary, 1 pt dip in ALP, Abbott approval and PPM improve.

  10. Re Iraq: Yes, I believe what I said. I agree that Bush badly mishandled the early post-war period, particularly in disbanding the army. But al-Qaeda in Iraq was eventually defeated by the Petraeus “surge”, and has only revived, in the form of ISIS, following the civil war in Syria. There would have been no civil war in Syria if Obama had intervened in 2011.

    Re boats: I said I believed the number of drownings this year to be zero or close to it. If there had been a significant number, that could not be kept secret.

  11. [News Australia ‏@NewsAustralia 4h
    Some rental law experts quietly spreading word VCAT decision favouring Frances Abbott “unprecedented” and “stunning.”]
    lizzie
    Irresistable for tabloid TV one would think (hope)?

  12. BK

    I haven’t caught up with all the detail, but different versions of the ‘truth’ seem to be swirling around.

  13. @Lizzie/308

    Promoting his “Medical Research Future Fund” ‘slush fund’ while in the USA.

    CHOICE ‏@choiceaustralia 4m

    Are you watching #GameOfThrones tonight? Join our campaign against draconian government piracy policies http://goo.gl/iv244O #GoT #finale

  15. Psephos

    “But al-Qaeda in Iraq was eventually defeated by the Petraeus “surge”, and has only revived, in the form of ISIS, following the civil war in Syria”

    I would disagree with that… They went underground,
    they did travel into Syria, but they were still active in Iraq.

    They were CREATED as a result of the Iraq War

    “There would have been no civil war in Syria if Obama had intervened in 2011.”

    On which side? Neither side was particularly good! This is also something that cannot be proved; it’s simply a statement of opinion.

    It’s all Post-hoc analysis and justification for your ideology… Like you’re claim about how we went to Iraq to give them Democracy.

  17. The Frances Abbott broken lease story is circulating through the media – on Ch10 news about 40 minutes into the bulletin.

    By the way, the newsreader is Hugh Riminton. What a waste of good political reporting talent.

  18. Could someone with the knowledge of how to do so, repost my post from early this morning on the previous thread here? It was post 2196 on page 44 about the Abbott rental scandal.

    Thanks

  19. It is Refugee Week: http://www.refugeeweek.org.au/index.php

    [Refugee Week is Australia’s peak annual activity to raise awareness about the issues affecting refugees and celebrate the positive contributions made by refugees to Australian society.]

    Its theme is ‘Restoring Hope’: http://www.refugeeweek.org.au/about/theme.php

    In Melbourne on Sunday 22 June there will be a rally, ‘Justice for Refugees’: http://www.vthc.org.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2946:world-refugee-day-march&catid=150:2014-cover-story-archives&Itemid=1011

    Speakers include Greens Adam Bandt and ALP Anna Burke.

    Once again, I have conveyed my support to Anna Burke for her principled stand in co-sponsoring a motion on asylum seekers to be presented tomorrow to the ALP caucus, as well as her public advocacy for a more humane and compassionate treatment of asylum seekers.

  20. Does Iraq want US intervention?

    Heard a commentator in Iraq stating there is no appetite for further western intervention.

  21. [Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Monday, June 16, 2014 at 2:42 am | PERMALINK
    I am not conversant with residential tenancy law in Victoria, but in any civilised jurisdiction, if an adult freely enters into a lease agreement, having inspected the property, and then seeks to terminate the lease because he or she finds it is not up market enough, or believes their special need for security is not sufficiently provided for in the premises, they can do so. However the tenant must pay the damages incurred as a result of the breach of the contract of lease.]

    [I wonder what type of father, who, perhaps correctly, finds his adult child in unsuitable accommodation, has the ability to secure AFP and state police reports declaring the property unsuitable, and be able to provide those reports to his daughter to use as evidence in civil litigation proceedings.]

    [And I wonder how any tribunal, acting in accordance with known principles of Law, can use the substance of such reports as the basis for declaring the lease terminable at the behest of the tenant without compensation to the landlord.]

    [And I wonder how a man on $500,000 a year, plus perks worth several times over, can place his young adult daughter in a situation where she is sued for at most a couple of thousand dollars, and not seek to save her the embarrassment and ignominity by paying the money himself.]

    [I suppose it takes a special type of person …

    Or perhaps there are other facts pertinent to the matter which have not been reported, accurately or at all.]

  22. From Fulvio last thread:

    2196
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Monday, June 16, 2014 at 2:42 am | PERMALINK
    I am not conversant with residential tenancy law in Victoria, but in any civilised jurisdiction, if an adult freely enters into a lease agreement, having inspected the property, and then seeks to terminate the lease because he or she finds it is not up market enough, or believes their special need for security is not sufficiently provided for in the premises, they can do so. However the tenant must pay the damages incurred as a result of the breach of the contract of lease.

    I wonder what type of father, who, perhaps correctly, finds his adult child in unsuitable accommodation, has the ability to secure AFP and state police reports declaring the property unsuitable, and be able to provide those reports to his daughter to use as evidence in civil litigation proceedings.

    And I wonder how any tribunal, acting in accordance with known principles of Law, can use the substance of such reports as the basis for declaring the lease terminable at the behest of the tenant without compensation to the landlord.

    And I wonder how a man on $500,000 a year, plus perks worth several times over, can place his young adult daughter in a situation where she is sued for at most a couple of thousand dollars, and not seek to save her the embarrassment and ignominity by paying the money himself.

    I suppose it takes a special type of person …

    Or perhaps there are other facts pertinent to the matter which have not been reported, accurately or at all.

  25. Fulvio ….. 2 questions arise.

    Did Abbott not quietly clean up the mess because he’s a dunce?

    Or

    Is he happy to have this distraction to the budget running ….. the lesser of two evils!

  28. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 4m
    #Newspoll yikes!]

    PVO and/or Mumble have used “yikes” before when there was nothing remarkable. It is a bit tedious when these characters do this.

  29. Re Syria: In 2011 it would have been possible to remove Assad and install a relatively moderate government that would have prevented the upsurge in Islamist militancy we have seen since. Post-Assad Syria would have had plenty of problems of course, but not this particular one.

    Re Iraq: It’s up to the Iraqi government, elected by the Shia majority, to decide if they want western assistance in defeating this invasion or not. They may prefer to turn to Iran for aid. But if they do, I believe the US has a responsibility to provide it.

  30. Fulvio. BTW

    Just copy the whole comment n title/ your name etc from prior thread and paste into comment box on current thread.

    That’s my method, but superior tech heads here might have more sophisticated ways.

  32. A bit of a historical what-if here.

    If the “Coalition of the Willing” didn’t invade Iraq in the 2000s, would we be facing a situation akin to Syria today? Where nations are forced the dilemma of supporting a dictatorial government vs extremist elements within opposition forces? Would such elements be allied to each other (Syria and Iraq)?

    Or would the standing of such a government not have riled up a militant uprising in the first place?

  33. Re the Newspoll ‘yikes’, i suppose that if you just read the Australian, let alone actually work with the editorial staff at the Australian, you would probably be surprised every time the polls don’t show a massive swing to the government.

  34. Retweeted by AMA President
    AMA Media ‏@ama_media 7h

    QUESTION: I pay $45 to see the GP now.Will I pay the $7 GP Co-payment? ANSWER: MC rebate cut by $5.You pay $50 if legislation passes #auspol

  35. Citizen #328

    If they, the yikers (including Mod Lib) had a look at “yiking” in Urban Dictionary they’d steer well clear of the word.

  36. [Steve Thompson ‏@stevethompson49 4m
    Just heard Greg Hunt in The House trying to justify devolving the environment to the states. Absurd proposal. #AusPol]

    He’s a child in a man’s job. Chuck him out!

  39. Psephos

    “Re Syria: In 2011 it would have been possible to remove Assad and install a relatively moderate government that would have prevented the upsurge in Islamist militancy we have seen since. Post-Assad Syria would have had plenty of problems of course, but not this particular one.”

    These bold predictions of what would have been “if only” are pretty empty. The Russians wouldn’t have let that happen for a start… The problems that led to the Civil Starting would have remained in any event, as the Country had passed peak oil in 1996 and had declining revenue, which was coupled with a horrible drought.
    http://www.irinnews.org/report/90442/syria-drought-pushing-millions-into-poverty

    So as with any population under extreme stress, they revolt. Following theses sorts of revolts things don’t go back to normal until the people’s lives improve. Even with a moderate Government they would have faced more drought and still declining revenue. As with the other Arab Spring countries, it’s more to do with loss of oil revenue and drought.

  40. [Iran would be willing to overlook contentious relations with the United States and work together in providing assistance in Iraq — if Washington vows to fight “terrorist groups in Iraq and elsewhere,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pledged Saturday.]

    [Rouhani, appearing on state-run television, said that Iran is standing ready to help its next-door neighbor in the fight against the militant insurgency that broke out earlier this week. But so far, Iraq’s Shiite-led government hasn’t taken up Iran’s offer.]

  41. Read about the current US ambassador. http://canberra.usembassy.gov/ambassador.html

    He has a remarkable resume, is seriously smart, and is also openly gay, having married his partner, who lives with him here. He will have briefed Obama completely about Abbott, and Obama would have been under no illusions whatsoever about Abbott’s remarkable combination of outright stupidity, and self delusion.

  42. [If the “Coalition of the Willing” didn’t invade Iraq in the 2000s, would we be facing a situation akin to Syria today? ]

    No, of course the current situation would not exist if there had been no invasion of Iraq in 2003. Saddam or one of his odious sons would still be in power, torturing and murdering thousands of their citizens every year, threatening their neighbours, sponsoring and harbouring terrorists, and acquiring weapons of mass destruction, all in the knowledge that the west was too spineless to stop them.

  43. [Rev. Bill Crews ‏@RevBillCrews 4m
    Many people including Howard’sBattlers concerned for young people’s Budget treatment. Never seen such white hot anger in 40 years]

    Maybe Tony and Joe overstepped a tad?

  44. Morgan has published two separate results for its last two weekends of polling.

    This weekend just past: ALP 38 (-4), L-NP 36.5 (+3.5), GRN 12 (-), PUP 5.5 (+1). Two-party: 55.5-44.5 respondent allocated, 54.5-45.5 previous election.

    The weekend previous: ALP 42 (+4), L-NP 33 (-2), GRN 12 (+1), PUP 4.5 (+3). Two-party: 60.5-39.5 respondent allocated, 59-41 previous election.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Findings%20PDF/2014/June/5635-Fed-Vote-June-16-2014.pdf

  46. Psephos

    “No, of course the current situation would not exist if there had been no invasion of Iraq in 2003. Saddam or one of his odious sons would still be in power, torturing and murdering thousands of their citizens every year, threatening their neighbours, sponsoring and harbouring terrorists, and acquiring weapons of mass destruction, all in the knowledge that the west was too spineless to stop them.”

    It’s not much different now, though is it?
    The West killed just as many as Saddam and the country is full of Terrorists…

    The point is not that Saddam was an evil Tyrant, but that inevitable wars don’t actually solve the real problem. Which is Sunni vs Shia. And you can chuck in the Kurds into that mix. Doesn’t particularly matter who is in charge, when the religious extremists are hell bent on killing. They use the economic and environmental conditions to gather a support base and then go on their killing sprees.

  48. We should not forget the important original objectives of the Iraq War:

    Spend around $1 trillion and hundreds of thousands of lives, millions of internally and externally displaced people, and a compleetly wrecked economy, to:

    (a) get Al Qaeda out of Iraq and,
    (b) destroy all those weapons of mass destruction.

    The fact that there were precious few of the former and none of the latter must not be allowed to get in the way of the preferred war narrative which can be summarised as: NeoCon right; Left wrong.

    It is also heartening that our most trusted ME client, Saudi Arabia, has had absolutely nothing to do with funding ISIS to undo in Iraq what the West spent blood, treasure and a decade doing – whatever that was. Howard and Gillard were left with the vague bullshit ‘running the course’. The latter, of course, translated as sticking around for as long as the US.

    For reasons best known to themselves, from Osama to ISIS, the NeoCon warmongers are coy about Saudi Arabia which is odd because they are happy to rant about everything else.

    The one bulwark against the maddest bastards of them all – Iran – was Iraq, destroyed by the addled pated gung ho of the warmongers. Iranian Revolutionary Guard ‘volunteers’ are now defending Baghdad. What an achievement by Bush, Bliar and Howard!

    The one absolutely predictable thing about NeoCon warmongers is that, when they fail, as they have done in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Vietnam, they blame the Left.

    The best thing about the NeoCon preferred nutter in Afghanistan is that his term is expiring. As a nation-builder, Al Maliki is certifiable.

  49. Regarding Iraq and Syria.

    Reports make clear the porous nature of Iraq’s borders. Its why the US couple got in trouble hiking. Its why the Kurds have always had support in Turkey. Its why Iraqis got involved in Syrias war. This is a group from both sides of the border that believes that border should not exist.

    As for Iraq. You topple a dictator you create a power vacuum that will be filled. The US tried to fill it with training the Iraqi army. As we saw this week that failed.

    So now we have a civil war going for control that can destabilise the whole region. With foreign powers sticking their fingers in.

    Think Lebanon in recent decades.

  50. @338

    [The May numbers saw traffic surge on the back of federal budget coverage with the numbers suggesting that more than 10 million Australians accessing a news website with the smh.com.au, ABC and The Guardian, the main beneficiaries of the increases.]

    Ha! And so it should be. People are looking for real (or close to) analysis of the budget & all news.

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