Seat of the week: Murray

The northern Victorian seat of Murray is one of a number of seats in rural New South Wales and Victoria which have drifted from the Nationals to the Liberals after long-serving sitting members retired, Sharman Stone having secured the seat once held by Jack McEwen in 1996.

Blue numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Murray covers central northern Victoria including a 200 kilometre stretch of the river that bears its name, from Gunbower east through Echuca to Yarrawonga and Bundalong. From there it extends southwards into the Goulburn Valley region as far as Inglewood in the west and Nagambie and Euroa in the east. Its largest population centre by a considerable margin is Shepparton, home to about a third of its population, followed by Echuca, which accounts for about 10%. The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its boundaries resembled those of Echuca which existed from federation until its abolition in 1937, when its territory was divided between Bendigo in the west and Indi in the east. Its dimensions have not substantially changed at any time since 1949, apart from a slight reorientation westwards when the electorate of Wimmera was abolished in 1984.

The area in question was the domain of the Country Party from its formation in 1920 until 1996, when Sharman Stone won Murray for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd. John McEwen began his federal parliamentary career as the member for Echuca in 1934 before moving to Indi when it was abolished the following term, then transferred to Murray in 1949 and remained there until his retirement in 1971. McEwen served as leader of the Country Party after 1958 and, for three weeks following Harold Holt’s disappearance at the end of 1967, Prime Minister. McEwen was succeeded on his retirement in 1971 by Bruce Lloyd, who held the seat until 1996. In a sadly typical outcome for the Nationals, the seat fell to the Liberals when Lloyd retired in 1996, Sharman Stone outpolling the Nationals candidate 43.2% to 29.7% and prevailing by 3.7% after the distribution of preferences. The Liberals had intermittently fielded candidates against Lloyd throughout his career, but always finished third behind Labor.

Sharman Stone served as a parliamentary secretary from after the 1998 election until January 2006, when she was promoted to the junior ministry as Workforce Participation Minister. After the 2007 election defeat she assumed environment, heritage, the arts and indigenous affairs, the first named being shared with shadow cabinet member Greg Hunt, before being promoted to shadow cabinet in the immigration and citizenship portfolio when Malcolm Turnbull became leader in September 2008. However, she was demoted to the outer shadow ministry position of early childhood education and childcare when Turnbull was replaced by Tony Abbott in December 2009, having supported Turnbull during Abbott’s leadership challenge, and relegated to the back bench after the 2010 election. In February 2014, Stone accused Abbott of Joe Hockey of lying about union conditions for workers at the SPC Ardmona cannery in Shepparton after the government’s rejection of a bid for $25 million in assistance put the future of its 2700 jobs in doubt. When asked at the time if she intended to remain in the Liberal Party, Stone said only that it was “to be seen how things pan out”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

598 comments on “Seat of the week: Murray”

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  2. [204
    guytaur

    @SimonBanksHB: Interesting that @tonyabbottmhr did not deny he told @BarackObama increase in petrol excise was a carbon price]

    This is plain stupid. The cap-and-trade mechanism embodied in an ETS is intended to drive new investment in low-emissions power technologies, rather than to inhibit consumption or drive up energy costs. Indeed, if the cap-and-trade system lives up to its potential, energy costs will start to fall as technological advancement and economies of scale start to work in favour of renewable sources.

    Excise on fuel by itself cannot accomplish these things. All it does is depress real wages.

  3. The difficulty with judging the impact of mass media misinformation is the unknown impact of social media in diluting, changing or reinforcing the MSM massage.
    That the situation is changing here in Oz we are still at the guessing stage about the nature and level of the impact of the change.

    So I found this recent post by Mr D at “The Failed Estate” interesting in that it goes a little way towards providing some hard numbers.

    [Reuters report found rapid growth in mobile and tablet use for news, with 37% of the sample accessing news from a smartphone each week and 20% from a tablet. While Australia was left out of the Reuters sample, digital trends here are similar.
    ..the media finds that that the people formerly known as the audience have moved on ..]

    http://failedestate.com/stuck-inside-of-mobile/

  4. [Has any concrete evidence been presented at the RC into unions?]

    Nope today was another day of hearsay. One highlight was “how did you get the copy of a document?” I found it in a photocopier was the answer.

    Funny most people leave the original in the copier, not the copy.

  6. [Veteran Channel Ten political commentator Paul Bongiorno has taken a payout from the troubled network, in part to preserve the careers of some of his younger colleagues.

    “I understand my offer to take voluntary redundancy has helped save a few other jobs,” said Bongiorno, now in his 26th year in the Canberra Press Gallery. “I only hope that from some of the remnants we can rebuild and move forward].

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/ten-news-veteran-paul-bongiorno-takes-redundancy-to-help-save-jobs-at-ailing-network-20140616-3a7c4.html#ixzz34mTnN5HF

  7. RE: dropping basic OH&S for the “Green Army”

    I am genuinely gobsmacked that the Abbott Libs would take such a serious risk after making so much political hay from the alleged safety failures of Labor’s home insulation scheme.

    You would think they could score some easy points by simply enforcing existing basic OH&S rules for the scheme, and saying ‘See, that is how it is done’.

    It is as though they really do believe that they can simply lie and spin their way out of anything.

  8. Re That DLP senator
    __________
    The DLP is Vic is really run by the Right to Life, since the old DLP went out of business

    Three years ago when Madigan was elected he got the residue of Labor/Greens/other.. prefs to defeat Mcguran…a lovely irony as McGuaran when a Lib senator was a very close ally of the R to Life anyway

    Kn the final count Madigan has be pref-d all others ahead of McGuaran…so the seat he won we really a Lib seat…and while a conservative on many issues he’s OK on such matters as social welfare/wages.etc and no help to Abbott on such matters…far to the “left” of Family First

  12. [247
    ruawake

    I can’t see any reason for people to switch back to Abbott. He needs a miracle.]

    Or the next best thing for a mired Tory government, beat the drums of war.

  13. [You would think they could score some easy points by simply enforcing existing basic OH&S rules for the scheme…]

    their Green Army scheme

  14. [I don’t come here to be taught lessons I enjoy everyone having their say and take it all on board.]

    To each their own —— most days I’m strictly a lurker here and invariably learn a great deal from those long and “boring” lessons which quite a few intelligent, articulate and erudite Bludgers take their valuable time to write.

    For starters, I look forward to any long and “boring” exigesis from the keyboard of William Bowe. Keep them coming, please!

  15. [Hopefully Bongiorno will be snapped up by somebody like The Saturday Paper or The Guardian.]

    Or The New Daily like Steve Lewis, er maybe not – sorry.

  19. [Climate sceptics to fly Queensland MP to international conference]

    Do they realise how much he costs to feed? 😆

  22. This from the Qld Science minister:

    [On Sunday the Newman cabinet minister Ian Walker called on critics to stop fuelling the war of words, saying Carmody deserved to be given a fair go.

    Walker, a former solicitor and now the minister for science, IT, innovation and the arts, said: People have got to put a sock in it, they’ve got to shut up and they’ve got to let justice Carmody get on with the job.]

    I don’t think they get it.. or maybe they do.

  25. [Are expecting a poll this evening?]

    Would think its time for Newspoll. Nielsen is due but they may have already pulled the plug?

  27. [In September, the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has invited world leaders to a New York summit to bring bold pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

    Abbott has said he won’t be going. He will be too busy trying to repeal the carbon price legislation and pushing his budget cuts to renewables through parliament.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2014/jun/16/what-does-australian-prime-minister-tony-abbott-really-think-about-climate-change

  29. Thanks ruawake.

    I thought we would have a few polls after Abbott’s OS jaunt. I’ll be suitably shocked if he gets a lift in preferred PM.

  30. The good news regarding Paul Bongiorno:

    [However, Bongiorno, who will be 70 later this year, is not cutting ties completely with Ten when the redundancy takes effect in August. He will stay on as a contributing editor for the network, helping the remaining four Canberra journalists “keep the government accountable”.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/ten-news-veteran-paul-bongiorno-takes-redundancy-to-help-save-jobs-at-ailing-network-20140616-3a7c4.html#ixzz34miOwyzo

  32. Perhaps Ms Parke, Ms Burke and Ms Vamvakinou should stand up in QT (rather than the party room) and hold Minister Morrison to account re his utter mismanagement of the O/S facilities that has seen them descend into vicious death camps.

  33. [Has to be reported as ‘damaging’, of course.]

    It will be referred to State Conferences (in fact it already has) if they pass motions to support the policy change it will be taken to National Conference. Then it will pass or fail.

    Federal Caucus has no real policy role in Opposition. So if people want to change join the ALP and elect delegates who support your point of view.

  34. I believe there are two more Nielsens to come before they close shop. They will however come out on Sunday night, not Monday, so I’m guessing there will be one next week.

  35. Re Parke, Burke etc. It’s not very smart politics to attack the Abbott government on the one area in which their policy (a) is in accord with majority opinion and (b) has been successfully carried out.

    Re “vicious death camps.” There has been one death at Manus. This compares with 1,100 deaths at sea under the previous policy.

  36. 252

    Economy wide Emissions Trading Schemes create risk for sector specific low and no emissions technology providers that a sudden take off in low or no emissions technology in another sector will reduce the value of their product and also set back the push for reducing emissions bellow the emissions targets. A fixed price means that their is greater certainty for individual sectors.

    Fuel excise also fights congestion, particulate pollution and noise pollution.

  37. 285

    Tunisia is looking a lot better than Iraq now and for the foreseeable future. Even Egypt looks better than parts of Iraq.

  39. Psephos@285

    Re Parke, Burke etc. It’s not very smart politics to attack the Abbott government on the one area in which their policy (a) is in accord with majority opinion and (b) has been successfully carried out.

    Re “vicious death camps.” There has been one death at Manus. This compares with 1,100 deaths at sea under the previous policy.

    While you’re here Psephos, how’s Iraq going?

  40. Psephos
    Do you have numbers for asylum seeker deaths at sea [or as a result of stranding in Indonesia] since:
    [1] Rudd’s changes before the election?
    [2] Since the election?

  42. @Psephos/285

    Death Centers are still Death Centers, you cannot change that fact.

    The only reason so many perished under previous policy is due to boats, the same reason why it will happen under Coalition Policy.

    Interestingly, Italy seems to be the latest place to be Asylum Seekers, but again, has created a Anti-Asylum-Seekers country.

    Hate, where it starts, and where it ends.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/italy-rescues-5200-asylum-seekers-from-boats-in-mediterranean-20140609-zs1dx.html

    So yes, all your policy does, is create a Sea of hate, Psephos.

    Be proud of it.

  43. Fredex: No, but I believe the number is nil. If it’s not, it’s a very low number. So far as I know, there have only been a handful of boats this year, and all have been intercepted. There may of course have been drownings we don’t know about. But equally there may have been more than 1,100 in the previous period, which we also don’t know about.

  44. @Psephos/293

    We had a media black out since November last year, we do not know how many boats and will never know.

  45. I hazard a guess that folk with Alzheimer disease in 1900 would have been institutionalised for being deranged.

    Plus another factor of lower life expectancy.

    Also, many may have died of cancer but at the time they wouldn’t have had the capabilities to diagnose certain types of cancers.

    Same for diabetes.

  46. [ This compares with 1,100 deaths at sea under the previous policy.]

    Slackers,Howard’s policy knocked off about 350 in just one boat.

  47. Bloomberg news today has a very unfavourable story on Abbott in the US regarding climate change. If Abbott said that the US and Australia were doing the same “direct action” thing, then Robb said the total opposite.

    [Australia Sees Obama Climate Change Plan as All Talk, No Action

    Australia’s chief trade-deals negotiator has labeled the bid by President Barack Obama to cut U.S. power-plant emissions as lacking substance.

    “There’s no action associated with it,” Trade Minister Andrew Robb said in a Sky News interview from Houston, Texas, where he was accompanying Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

    Abbott, who is seeking to dismantle Australia’s carbon-price mechanism before it hosts Group of 20 leaders in November, isn’t supporting Obama’s bid to pressure India, China and other nations to help form a world-wide agreement to combat climate change. The president is seeking state-by-state limitations on carbon-dioxide emissions to limit the effects of man-made global warming, and earlier this month proposed cutting power-plant discharges, the nation’s largest source of the gas, by 30 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels.

    “Despite the rhetoric you get over here and all the targets for 30 percent reductions and all this, it’s just rhetoric,” Robb said.
    ]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-15/australia-sees-obama-climate-change-plan-as-all-talk-no-action.html

    So Abbott says one thing to Obama’s face and Robb completely contradicts him. Another fine mess. Does Obama trust Abbott? Probably not.

  48. News Australia ‏@NewsAustralia 4h
    Some rental law experts quietly spreading word VCAT decision favouring Frances Abbott “unprecedented” and “stunning.”

  49. Re Iraq: Thanks to western intervention in 2003, Iraq now has a democratically elected government, and some semblance of the rule of law. It is now being subjected to invasion by an Islamist militia based in Syria. This would not have happened if the west had intervened in Syria in 2011, when it would have been possible to remove Assad from power relatively easily and replace him with a fairly moderate government.

    The invasion has revealed two things about Iraq. First, the Iraqi state and armed forces are still fragile, which shows that Obama was wrong to withdraw all US forces this year, as many people warned. Second, the Sunni Arab minority has not much loyalty to the Iraqi state. This has partly been caused by policies of the Maliki government, but is mainly due to continuing Sunni resentment that their monopoly of power has been ended by three successive free elections, which naturally produced a Shia-led government.

    Thus the blame for the situation in Iraq rests partly with Maliki, but mostly with Obama, for withdrawing from Iraq too soon and for failing to intervene in Syria. The main responsibility for fixing the current mess therefore rests with Obama. If he’s not willing to send troops back to Iraq, he will have to find someone else to do the job for him.

  50. I was emailing a friend in Qld just now who is (was?) a rusted on LNP supporter. He is in retail and was whining about significant drop in sales and calls (he sells pianos) … he said what is the government going to do to help me?

    I laughed and said “nothing”

    Sow and ye shall reap.

    He is now very concerned about the future of his business and I bluntly told him the LNP are no fans of ‘small business’ … ‘you are on your own mate!’

    This is a person who dissed every ALP initiative in the last 20 years.

    Tough. Deal with it.

    Ain’t love grand. No doubt he will be tearing up his LP membership

    Idiot.

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