Seat of the week: Murray

The northern Victorian seat of Murray is one of a number of seats in rural New South Wales and Victoria which have drifted from the Nationals to the Liberals after long-serving sitting members retired, Sharman Stone having secured the seat once held by Jack McEwen in 1996.

Blue numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Murray covers central northern Victoria including a 200 kilometre stretch of the river that bears its name, from Gunbower east through Echuca to Yarrawonga and Bundalong. From there it extends southwards into the Goulburn Valley region as far as Inglewood in the west and Nagambie and Euroa in the east. Its largest population centre by a considerable margin is Shepparton, home to about a third of its population, followed by Echuca, which accounts for about 10%. The electorate was created with the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its boundaries resembled those of Echuca which existed from federation until its abolition in 1937, when its territory was divided between Bendigo in the west and Indi in the east. Its dimensions have not substantially changed at any time since 1949, apart from a slight reorientation westwards when the electorate of Wimmera was abolished in 1984.

The area in question was the domain of the Country Party from its formation in 1920 until 1996, when Sharman Stone won Murray for the Liberals upon the retirement of Nationals member Bruce Lloyd. John McEwen began his federal parliamentary career as the member for Echuca in 1934 before moving to Indi when it was abolished the following term, then transferred to Murray in 1949 and remained there until his retirement in 1971. McEwen served as leader of the Country Party after 1958 and, for three weeks following Harold Holt’s disappearance at the end of 1967, Prime Minister. McEwen was succeeded on his retirement in 1971 by Bruce Lloyd, who held the seat until 1996. In a sadly typical outcome for the Nationals, the seat fell to the Liberals when Lloyd retired in 1996, Sharman Stone outpolling the Nationals candidate 43.2% to 29.7% and prevailing by 3.7% after the distribution of preferences. The Liberals had intermittently fielded candidates against Lloyd throughout his career, but always finished third behind Labor.

Sharman Stone served as a parliamentary secretary from after the 1998 election until January 2006, when she was promoted to the junior ministry as Workforce Participation Minister. After the 2007 election defeat she assumed environment, heritage, the arts and indigenous affairs, the first named being shared with shadow cabinet member Greg Hunt, before being promoted to shadow cabinet in the immigration and citizenship portfolio when Malcolm Turnbull became leader in September 2008. However, she was demoted to the outer shadow ministry position of early childhood education and childcare when Turnbull was replaced by Tony Abbott in December 2009, having supported Turnbull during Abbott’s leadership challenge, and relegated to the back bench after the 2010 election. In February 2014, Stone accused Abbott of Joe Hockey of lying about union conditions for workers at the SPC Ardmona cannery in Shepparton after the government’s rejection of a bid for $25 million in assistance put the future of its 2700 jobs in doubt. When asked at the time if she intended to remain in the Liberal Party, Stone said only that it was “to be seen how things pan out”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

598 comments on “Seat of the week: Murray”

Comments Page 5 of 12
1 4 5 6 12
  1. [i hope the lnp is damaged for ever and never recovers.]

    My Say – good to see you back posting here.

    I said on a number of occasions last year before the election that I thought Abbott would damage the Liberal brand if he won and so far it looks like I may have been right. The government is already seen as mean and nasty after its unfair budget and if the economy starts to head south as a result of their deflationary policies, their reputation as the better economic managers will be in tatters.

  2. [If reforms to Senate voting is passed Madigan probably won’t be re-elected in 2016.]

    It’s unlikely he’ll be re-elected under the current system. Does the DLP have a base in Victoria that he has expanded, or will they be replaced by another minor party?

  3. Newspoll should be published tonight, one would think, and as their last set of results from 2 weeks ago was at 54% to 46% to the ALP, what do we think the numbers will come out at tonight, given the field period was last Thursday through to yesterday?

    As we’re all in the spirit of World Cup predictions, I’m going with results back to 55% to 45% to the ALP, with Shorten to continue his PPM lead over Abbott, or increase it slightly.

    The general negativity still surrounding the unpopular Budget measures will, in my view, drown out any possible ‘feel good’ boost from the taxpayer funded overseas photos ops of the last week, with the Abbott gaffes and contradictory pronouncements cancelling out the Murdoch cheer squad’s noisy and partisan barracking.

  4. Looking into QT briefly is very bad for my temper.
    Abbott: “this is the Budget we were elected to bring about.”

    No, it bloody well isn’t.

  5. 208

    The DLP is unlikely to ever get any Senators again. It has no significant base expansion. The proposed electoral reforms, to give voters control over their ATL preferences, will kill any chances it may have had.

    If he is replaced by a minor party, it will be PUP as the Greens already hold a seat. It is most likely to go to the Coalition, although the government`s performance is hurting this chance, with the ALP also within shout of a third seat if the Government does badly enough.

  6. I have never before seen “last questions” called in the middle of a response. Abbott standing to protect Turnbull and gag the objection from Burke — with a smirk on his face.

  7. 54:46
    +/- 1, within MOE, Shorten netsat and PPM slightly better, Abbott slightly worse.

    Personally my perception is that the 2PP should be trending up for the ALP slowly but 2 factors could counter that.
    Firstly, the usual message distortion of the media re Tony’s ‘triumphs’ overseas and continued obfuscation re the budget and all the other nasties of this government being gently whitewashed.
    Secondly, Newspoll has in the past showed, euphemistically speaking, ‘volatility’ in its results eg jumps in 2pp of a couple of points in a direction opposite to all other pollsters, having the ALP at 34% when all others had it in the 37% plus range.
    For a while there Newspoll showed real signs of unpredictability.
    And MOE alone could see the ALP lead diminish whilst the reality, whatever that is, could be different.
    Or, similarly, the ALP could increase. MOE allows 2-3% variation just on numbers.

  8. [
    Why can’t all sports fans and others do this? It’s not hard, particularly if you don’t litter in the first place.

    Why aren’t there fines for people who do litter so that we can effect a cultural change to no littering?

    As someone who never litters anywhere, this is al an impenetrable mystery to me.
    ]

    When I used to go to One Day cricket matches in the 1990’s, most of the rubbish was thrown up in the air every time the Mexican wave went around. I was almost clobbered by a half full can of beer once. Not to mention usually going home covered in tomato sauce, mustard, beer and other assorted liquids. The chances of that lot cleaning up after themselves? Zero!

  9. lizzie

    Those games of Abbott’s do not work now. The questions get asked in the Senate too.

    It is going to work even less come July as the Canberra Press Gallery switches attention to the Senate with the circus in town.

  10. As a ten year old I collected cans on the old SCG hill for recycling at a Australia New Zealand one dayer.

    Got 1c a can at the recyclers.

    Not really worth the effort.

  11. [
    We’d need an early fluke goal, presumably an own goal, and an early red card for Robben to have a chanc
    ]

    Indeed, in fact, I think to be in with a real chance, we need the Dutch bus to get lost on the way to the Stadium. lol

  12. BK

    I did not even bother with QT today. Not in the mood to hear that nothing has changed re Health Education or the pensions. Basically the budget is great, Labor bad and Abbott’s overseas adventure was absolutely fabulous.

  13. BK

    The effect of watching a long series of claims in QT such as the Minister for Grecian 2000 declaring he is the pensioner’s bestie and Tones declaring he is a true egalitarianism supporter and hearing Truffles use the word “Conrovian” for 113,00th time.

  14. Qanda

    Tonight’s Panel
    Josh Frydenberg – Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister
    Ed Husic – Labor MP
    Dee Madigan – Author and advertising director
    Virisila Buadromo – Fijian women’s advocate
    James Allan – Professor of Law, University of Queensland

  15. PNG PM’s legal team in court to get an injunction against arrest. He has not turned up to answer questions.

    Maybe a new PM will rescind the Manus agreement if the current one falls.

  16. [Not really worth the effort.]

    Yeah, but as a kid its great fun.

    My brothers and their mates use to go off with their billy carts and collect bottles to sell to the BottleO yard.

  17. Little odd at TURC.

    Witness giving evidence of Temby QC report into HSU (East, I think) while Temby is at bar table representing parts of the HSU.

  18. BK

    I am noticing less traffic as well.

    I find long tomes and people trying to out do each other with long debates boring.

    I don’t come here to be taught lessons I enjoy everyone having their say and take it all on board.

  19. On twitter. Sums up QT

    [@Boeufblogginon Sorry Joan I watched QT. Another Soapie now with chief actor back Same old one act play with prompter Bishop.]

  20. I don’t think Labor will bolster any changes on tonight’s poll but the PUP and Greens will definitely affect the outcome of the TPP. I’m thinking Abbott’s numbers might not look good based on the past week’s performance but I can’t be sure. The distractions have been pretty heavy the last fortnight.

  21. ACOSS ‏@ACOSS 8m

    HILDA report shows increasing child poverty in sole parent families – up to 29.5% from 15.4% in 2004. http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/downloads/hilda/Stat_Report/statreport-v9-2014.pdf

    ACOSS ‏@ACOSS 6m

    Budget changes to pension indexation and FTB Part B will further increase child poverty in sole parent households, already 29.5%.

    ACOSS ‏@ACOSS 5m

    Despite decade of prosperity, HILDA report finds that inequality is on the rise. http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/downloads/hilda/Stat_Report/statreport-v9-2014.pdf

  22. [ shellbell

    Posted Monday, June 16, 2014 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    As a ten year old I collected cans on the old SCG hill for recycling at a Australia New Zealand one dayer.

    Got 1c a can at the recyclers.

    Not really worth the effort.
    ]

    ——————————————

    When Shane Warne was going with Liz Hurley he told her she was never to look in the suitcase under his bed. Weeks went by and eventually she let her curiosity overcome Shanes orders.

    She pulled the case out and opened it – inside was about 10 empty XXXX beer cans and a wad of $155 …

    She put the case back and when he got home she confronted him and demanded he tell her about what was in the case and refused to continue their relationship unless he told her the truth about the case.

    “Well, whenever I slept with a new girl I would put an empty beer can in the case” he said….

    She thought about it and said ” OK , thats not to bad ….about 10 girls ….. but whats the $155 dollars …

    He blushed red and said, “Well …. when there got too many cans, I took them down to the scrap metal guy for cash ….”

    She packed and left never to return ….

  23. Raaraa

    According to some, the fact that Rabbott was out of the country should see a lift in polling for the Coalition.

  24. [Our increasingly irascible Treasurer, Joe Hockey, has raised an old Liberal Party demon in his latest efforts to persuade the voters to control their nausea over his budget offering.]

    [His critics, he told a gathering of the elite at the conservative Sydney Institute, were indulging in class warfare, and that was obviously a bad thing. Why, it was the rhetoric of the 70s. Obviously it was simply unAustralian to even suggest that there were classes in our wide brown land, let alone that they could have their differences].

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-16/maccallum-who-exactly-is-engaging-in-class-warfare/5526378

  25. I watched a lot of the Unions RC today, seems its another case of people trying to preserve their “patch” when unions merge.

    Katrina Hart was a hoot, I think she thinks she did well. Shame she contradicted Bolano’s evidence on credit cards. At one point she thought she was CA and Commish as well.

    It seemed to be associates of Cathy Jackson day, where many questions of where did you get that info were replied “From Cathy Jackson” or in Marco’s case Caffy.

    Its funny, seems Bolano didn’t do anything by himself, Caffy was telling him what to do.

    The Commissioner and CA seemed to be watching the clock hoping for the day to end.

    I wondered why Philip Morris donated to Bolano, and so did he. 😯

  26. Raaraa

    [I don’t think Labor will bolster any changes on tonight’s poll but the PUP and Greens will definitely affect the outcome of the TPP. I’m thinking Abbott’s numbers might not look good based on the past week’s performance but I can’t be sure. The distractions have been pretty heavy the last fortnight.]

    IMO Coalition primary and Abbott approval will lift.

  27. [112
    briefly

    {snip}

    Climate change is the greatest economic challenge we face. It is also a very significant social justice issue. If the ALP cannot stand its ground and make the argument on climate change – stand against all the miserable lies and duplicity of the LNP in general and Abbott in particular – then I for one will be giving up on them.

    To surrender on this issue would be to hand Abbott the legitimacy he desperately craves but does not have and does not deserve.]

    Totally agree.

    The worst possible thing Labor could do now is look weak and unsure about such a fundamental issue. They are right to be a little cautious about details at the moment, but the basic principle must be clear and non-negotiable. Carbon must be priced.

    If Labor can’t stand and make a good case for effective carbon pricing, then my primary vote will go to the Greens. (For what that is worth, as Labor will always get my preference vote over the hard right loonies that currently infest the Libs.)

  28. I think things will stay constant for a while, ALP 54-46 ahead. The people who were going to switch have mostly all done so.

    I can’t see any reason for people to switch back to Abbott. He needs a miracle.

  29. I’m of the view that our petty and vindictive PM is now a lame duck, shot through the foot by friendly fire from his own mismanaged, scattershot approach to policy, and the collateral damage of the lies and contradictions of the last 9 incoherent months.

    Abbott prosecuted a false case against the former Gillard Government, aide by the partisan Murdoch media circus, and a supine and incompetent ABC, that all was chaos in Labor ranks, despite the solid legislative record of the last Parliament.

    Now we see what a chaotic Government really looks like, with an economy already becalmed by the noisome Budget, out of control backbenchers openly questioning the PM’s pet PPL policy, Ministers muzzled and contradicted on a daily, nay, and hourly basis by the PM’s office, lies and exaggerations flowing like a torrent from the foaming mouths of Hockey and Abbott, and the Falstaffian Clive Palmer clowning and capering around Parliament like he owns the place, which is probably not too far off the mark anyway.

    Abbott has rewritten the paradigm over the last 5 years by which Government’s are now to be judged, with the virulent and hateful Murdoch press his willing accomplices, and the verdict of the voting public, now solidified into concrete and immovable negative opinion, is already in on his shambolic Government of drones and charlatans …. bring on the Double Dissolution, and let’s see the biggest and most rapid electoral reversal in our nation’s history.

Comments Page 5 of 12
1 4 5 6 12

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *