Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).
The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.
Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.
Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.
The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.
The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.
… and a cane farmer…
The “occupied territory” stuff I think has much wider implications about the government and Cabinet.
Was it made by Brandis ALONE without consultation in Cabinet and if so then clearly he is a dangerous loose cannon and there are serious failure in the government processes. The implications for Australian trade would have been obvious to any half wit.
The Hunt solar issue is another such oddity. Does Cabinet actually meet? Do they discuss policy or just the sporting events (obviously NOT soccer – this is a NON U game what ho!!)
Nappin
Yes I know. She was a rather smart lady – for a National. Actually I rather liked what I saw. Pity she sold out to Howard.
S777
Maybe it was Brandis signalling to Australian Jewish voters that bigots have rights.
Douglas and Milko@1663
I had one of those a couple of years ago following on having a broken arm.
Forced to choose between the two, I would take the broken arm!
But once it was diagnosed, I was quick to jump onto a relatively new treatment, hydro-dilation, which I hope I spelt correctly.
One treatment and all fixed! The only pain was to my wallet which was $500 lighter.
I was supposed to do follow up physiotherapy but I am terrible at following such directions and wasn’t too conscientious with it. However, I got away with my limited efforts.
Good luck with it.
Will anything less than a 1-5 defeat be a moral victory for the ‘Roos?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/emissions-cuts-still-on-target-hunt/story-fn3dxiwe-1226954857211
Everyone happy?
E
‘ENVIRONMENT Minister Greg Hunt says…’
*laughs*
morning all
Confessions
Saw the segment you linked re Greg Hunt this morning. Thanks.
I can no longer lisfen to anything hunt says without getting extremely angry. He is such a sell out. How does he sleep at night?
BW
I do rather suspect that Brandis might have been offering the Jewish Lobby an olive branch to get them to go quiet on the “bigot” legislation. If so it a bit of an “own goal”
In case no one has noticed, there is a serious realignment about to happen in the ME.
US “friend” Saudi has been funding the Sunni’s in Syria and Chechnya and probably this current ISIS mob. It is just not clear what the outcome will be, because once the genie is out of the bottle, all hell may break loose.
Confessions
I should add fhat it was quite sobering hearing what the former coal executive said on the segment. We are now looking at 4/6 degrees increase. That is absolutely frightening
“The big point here is that the carbon tax hasn’t been doing its job,” Mr Hunt told Seven Network on Sunday.”
No, not really ML – refer reports yesterday re a 24% (I think)drop(hint – you won’t find it in a Murdoch paper)
victoria:
Hunt has visibly aged over the last year. I guess selling out has its price.
Boerwar, his lips were moving?
HEY!
….leave my Greg Hunt alone.
He has a PhD in this stuff, doesn’t he?
Hmmm, appears twas only a measly Masters
Boerwar
What are your thoughts on the latest Essendon saga with Asada?
confessions
I expect Abbott, Pyne, Morrison, Brandis, Hockey etc to be the a. Holes that they are. But Hunt should know better, and yet he has sold himself out to his pathetic party. I have nothing but contempt for him
Everything,
Do you actually know what a leader is?
Yes, we may have little impact globally but that doesn’t mean it is not right to do something about it. A leader is at the front, not at the rear. Where do you think Abbott is standing?
Yes, the Australian population did vote for Abbott but that doesn’t mean they don’t regret it now. It is like me sometimes, when I go out to dinner, I don’t intend on drinking too much red wine but it happens and then I regret it the next morning. The Australian public are having those same emotions now.
And go Coal, Abbott you are an embarrassment. We are caretakers of this planet, not owners?
Greg Hunt’s educational background, from the ever-reliable Wikipedia: “He graduated from Melbourne Law School with a Bachelor of Laws (First Class Honours), where he won a prize for a final year thesis he co-authored entitled ‘A Tax to Make the Polluter Pay’.He subsequently studied at Yale University, where he was a Fulbright Scholar and obtained a Master of Arts in International Relations. “
Master Hunt and Malcolm Turnbull seem to have so much in common … they used to believe… It’s sad what peer pressure can do sometimes.
Greg Hunt has a Masters so he can be trusted? Pull the other leg. He’s a politician who took one weekend to drop all previous knowledge in return for a Cabinet post.
Kirky@1769
At the rear, with his back to the rest of the world ?
[Kirky
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 10:42 am | PERMALINK
Everything,
Do you actually know what a leader is?]
I was responding to a post that Hunt was responsible for fixing global warming.
I just pointed out, the rather obvious point, that what Australia does is irrelevant to that outcome.
Not saying we shouldn’t do something, and BOTH sides of Australian politics plan to achieve the exact same outcome on that score.
[Yes, the Australian population did vote for Abbott but that doesn’t mean they don’t regret it now. It is like me sometimes, when I go out to dinner, I don’t intend on drinking too much red wine but it happens and then I regret it the next morning. The Australian public are having those same emotions now.]
Hangover? Yes, perhaps a good description. What happens after hangovers- you tend to get drunk again. Abbott is more than likely going to be re-elected.
daretotread@1747
I didn’t know Peter Baldwin’s engineering background, but you are right about Greg Combet.
I suppose you have a point about Kelly being female to boot, but I am studiously indifferent to politicians gender, ethnicity etc.
Not sure if peer pressure is the strongest influence on Hunt’s and Turnbull’s immoral behaviour – more the fear of losing power and money.
[Yesiree Bob
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 10:50 am | PERMALINK
Kirky@1769
A leader is at the front, not at the rear. Where do you think Abbott is standing?
At the rear, with his back to the rest of the world ?]
WITH the rest of the world would be a better description.
How many countries have a significant carbon price of any form?
Boerwar@1748
We need a solution to the problem you just identified.
v
IMHO:
(a) ASADA is now very confident that it has enough evidence to refer 34 players for being injected with Thymosin…4, resulting in infraction notices, and – in the absence of cooperation – getting them a year’s penalty. The test is ‘comfortable satisfaction’ which is less than ‘beyond reasonable doubt’.
(b) the Essendon club hierarchy did not, and does not, have the best interest of Essendon players at heart. Further, the spin doctor use of players’ suffering as a the raison d’etre of the legal actions is, IMHO, deeply cynical.
(c) That, as a direct result of deliberate actions of the Essendon club hierarchy, the issue may remain alive for this season and next season, thereby continuing to blight the lives of players, the club and the game.
(d) That a further set of Show Cause letters will hit non-playing Essendon staff.
The best thing that can be said about Essendon at this stage is that it looks unlikely to trouble the final eight this year, thus avoiding a repeat of last year’s finals debacle.
So Tony, what do you have to say about this ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckcH0Wrmy74
Thanks Boerwar
The Essendon FC is counting on the legal action halting progress by Asada
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/asada-invokes-lance-armstrong-dope-formula-20140614-3a4k2.html
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/bombers-court-tactic-may-not-stop-cases-says-asada-boss-20140614-zs83d.html
sohar – agreed. I take that as part of the peer pressure.
Everything@1777
China, The US is moving towards one (just look at states like California)
Abbott is looking increasingly isolated over this, and no amount of being obtuse, on your part, is going to cover that up.
Great, so the world is doing what you want, so Australia doesn’t need to do anything and we can take the economic advantage and get richer, while getting the benefit from the carbon reductions the rest of the world are generating then?
Everything@1784
Until our trade suffers as a result of the rest of the world being peed-off with Australia being leaners, rather than lifters
If you’re that person who, by being lazy, gets everyone else to do the chores for you, it’s not all that clever to boast about it.
Don’t take any notice of Everything, she’s just shifting ground, as usual, to be annoying.
[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/emissions-cuts-still-on-target-hunt/story-fn3dxiwe-1226954857211
Everyone happy?]
Only fools, horses and people who hate their children and grandchildren.
Mad Lib@1784
Well, well, well… Mad Lib has just shown us the Lib freeloader mentality. She has done us a favour.
But what do others think of freeloaders? They are not viewed with favour and invite retaliation.
I can envisage retaliatory measures such as special ‘carbon tariffs’ on Australian goods or other measures.
Given that Abbott is actively trying to form an alliance to limit on action on climate change, I’m amazed anyone is even bothering to try this on.
[Craig Emerson @DrCraigEmerson 6m
.@Gliburtine @TheKouk If there’s no engagement by progressives with the conservative media the public hears only conservative opinion.]
[1708
Everything
Reality check:
Decisions of Australian governments/Australian Environment ministers have an effect on global warming as close to zero as measurable.]
This of course is an entirely illusory claim. Australia’s contributions to GHG emissions and/or abatement will be measurable over time and it will be possible to deduce the net effect this has on the rate of change in the climate.
Such assertions as those made by E are pure dog shit.
Just highlighting the shifting positions HERE, actually….far from my own!
🙂
If you think the rest of the world is acting appropriately on climate change, why are you so angry at Abbott? He has the same target as your heroes, and the whole world is moving in the right direction (apparently! LOL 🙂 )
The reality is that the rest of the world is doing precious little. What prices exist are minimal. There is no international arrangement which is the only way you can avoid one competitor versus another competitor disadvantage.
The reality #2 is that NOTHING Australia does will have a significant measurable effect on climate change. That is the reality. If you want Australia to act as some sort of psychological fillip for the rest of the world’s leads to be inspired, fine. Say so.
When you make comments like “x Australian Minister is condemning our planet and the future of our children” then be prepared for me to call you out!
[briefly
….This of course is an entirely illusory claim. Australia’s contributions to GHG emissions and/or abatement will be measurable over time and it will be possible to deduce the net effect this has on the rate of change in the climate.]
Great.
Tell us how many millionths of a degree then.
Mod
[When you make comments like “x Australian Minister is condemning our planet and the future of our children” then be prepared for me to call you out!]
“You” being none of the people you are currently talking to.
E
Stop pretending you give a rats about the climate. Let’s get down to more serous business:
How do you spell ‘Aaron’, ‘Mike’ and ‘Yee How’.
Yes’ Bob, Agreed. The rest of the world goes on to develop new industries and infrastructures based the new technologies associated with carbon reduction and Australia is left with some holes in the ground, unwanted resources, and nothing technologically relevant to sell to the world. I guess Tony won’t waste the unwanted coal as we’ll all be forced to drive coal powered cars.
So, here is the question:
Has Saudi Arabia been a US client all along?
Or has it been the other way around?
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 11:09 am | PERMALINK
Mod
When you make comments like “x Australian Minister is condemning our planet and the future of our children” then be prepared for me to call you out!
“You” being none of the people you are currently talking to.]
Oh really?
[[Boerwar
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 9:17 am | PERMALINK
Will that finally be the signal for Hunt to resign?
He does have offspring for whose climate he is personally responsible.]
Everything is an idiot.
As Ian Dunlop and others have made clear, Australia stands to lose out big time as the developing renewable industries which we have abandoned become the economic drivers of the future.
It takes a very special kind of idiot to consistently deny reality.