BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The weekly BludgerTrack poll trend continues a trend of mild recovery for the Coalition following the post-budget slump, although Bill Shorten remains well ahead as preferred prime minister.

Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.

Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.

Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.

The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.

The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,198 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Murdoch organs have gone into peak Abbott government hagiography mode, following Rupert’s pleasure at 2.5 hr arse kissing by our supplicant PM in NY.

    Abbott’s Uni pal and fellow Bob Santamaria disciple Greg Sheridan leads the way, able to merge the Abbott global triumph with a smack down of Fairfax and the ABC

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    An increasingly shrill and pugnacious Hockey is still in full budget ideology defence mode.
    And Abbott is in CC action blocking mode as he heads to see Obama.
    Wow! This proposal of Baird’s will really sweeten the hip pocket!
    Fairfax has an article by the loathsome Peter Coleman defending Gerard Henderson. I have neither reviewed nor linked it.

    An excellent and heartfelt contribution from Peter FitzSimons on sport, betting and religion.
    Nothing to worry about here, is there Tone?
    As media ownership laws are under threat Abbott and his ubiquitous attachment dine with Murdoch for a pep talk.
    This is ALL we need! Abbott wants US style corporate schools. Perhaps the students could bring guns into class.
    The hapless, hopeless (Deputy PM!!!! FFS) Warren Truss has got his work cut out supporting the budget line and keeping his small party base happy.
    The Lowy Institute posits that Abbott’s intransigence on climate change action could harm the G20’s reputation.

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Bob Ellis examines Joe Hockey’s “fair go” using a shocking example.
    From yesterday’s child abuse Royal Commission hearing.
    Not a great look from the Brownlow Medallist, Dane Swan.
    Well what a surprise! we all knew this could happen.
    The Salvos hit back at the independence of Morriscum’s report into the Manus Island death.
    And a G4S whistleblower contradicts the company’s account of what happened.
    This is disgusting, cynical withdrawal of funds from Ethical Clothing Australia. Anything to push hourly labour costs down and down and down is fair game to this mob!
    Elizabeth Farelly uses Australia Post as an example in this article on the government’s relentless push for privatisation and cost shifting.–and-posties-20140611-zs3sk.html
    Australia is wrong to not describe parts of Palestine as “occupied”.
    It seems the euphoria of retailers over Abbott’s electoral victory has soured considerably.

  4. Section 3 . . .

    Cathy Wilcox with Abbott on the world stage.

    Just have a look at David Pope’s effort with the Abbott/Credlin/Murdoch soiree!
    Ron Tandberg on Abbott’s potential to stuff up in the US.
    David Rowe with Murdoch’s fatherly advice to our boy in the US.

  5. [While Stephen Harper was congratulating Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott yesterday for ending a carbon tax, the head of the IMF was in Montreal urging energy powerhouses like Canada to come to grips with the economics of climate change.

    International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde urged economists and central bankers from around the world not to wait for the next round of climate change talks to take action to protect the environment.

    All countries need to put mechanisms in place – whether a carbon tax or a cap and trade system – to pay for the effects of pollution, she said at the conference of the International Economic Forum of the Americas in Montreal. She urged countries not to wait for a new round of talks on global warming, but to start building these costs into their economic systems now.]

  6. BK

    [This is ALL we need! Abbott wants US style corporate schools. Perhaps the students could bring guns into class.]

    Just a coincidence after his arse kissathon with Rupes he came out with that. Oh and why did Tones visit Jeb Bush ?Read on

    [Fox in the Schoolhouse: Rupert Murdoch Wants to Teach Your Kids!
    News Corp.’s major move into the education business.

    Murdoch will make an unusual public appearance in San Francisco, delivering the keynote address at an education summit hosted by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush,……..The high-profile speech to a collection of conservative ed reformers, state legislators, and educators is just the latest step in Murdoch’s quiet march into the business of education…..
    When it comes to K through 12 education, we see a $500 billion sector in the US alone that is waiting desperately to be transformed by big breakthroughs that extend the reach of great teaching,” Murdoch said at the time. ]

  7. That’s a typical LieNP twist by Hockey – “budget criticism is class warfare”. The budget itself is “class warfare” and Hockey obviously can’t take the heat of criticism.

    As far as the better off paying for social security and other benefits of redistribution it’s all a part of “social insurance”. The better off never know when they may require help from the social safety net whether it be expensive medical intervention, unemployment benefits, a reasonable living standard after retirement etc.

    Such insurance is what keeps our economy bubbling along. Removing or reducing it, as Hockey is doing, threatens the very fabric of our society. That is the real “class warfare”.

  8. I don’t read the ASustralian, but this is the summary.

    [“Coalition anger as ABC boss hits out”
    THE ABC should concentrate on key services and tackling claims of bias instead of publicly whingeing, angry government members have told managing dir­ector Mark Scott.]

    No need for comment.

  9. Shorten:

    [“In the 2013-14 budget the Labor government introduced a comprehensive package to ensure the integrity of our company tax base.”

    “Based on updated estimates from the Parliamentary Budget Office, the revenue gains from Labor’s package are now worth over $5.3 billion.

    “But in a clear demonstration of their priorities the government has not once, but twice acted to water down this package, handing back more than $1.1 billion to big businesses”, he said.

    The forfeited revenue could reverse cuts to concessions for pensioners and seniors card holders, or increase costs of PBS medicines, he said.]

  10. And from the Land of the Free –

    Orange Man John Boehner on the skids?
    A Christian pastor takes Texan Congressman Gohmert to school on the separation of church and state.
    Welcome to the new Tea Party hopeful who won yesterday’s Republican primary. It’s frightening!

  11. Lizzie

    He misses his $386 sitting payment for the 11 days, that is it. He still gets his normal pay. All up he loses about $4k, while still on a base salary of over $150,000 per year.

  12. I reckon that the David Pope cartoon this morning is one of the cleverest I’ve seen in years. 10/10!

    BK: you and others like to ridicule Warren Truss a fair bit. And he is undoubtedly one of the most uncharismatic people ever to go into politics.

    But I watched him on Insiders and felt that the content of what he said was light years ahead of the likes of Abbott, Hockey and Pyne. He had mastered his briefing, spun as much as he felt was reasonable, and was unfailingly polite at all times.

    Contrast that to the others mentioned, who typically aren’t across the facts, consistently ignore the question and are rude and aggressive, and parrot catch phrases which are detached from reality.

    In short, Truss would be a much better PM than any of the leading Libs. IMO.

  13. It’s quite obvious why he (Shaw) was “suspended”. When the suspension finishes in early September, even if he resigned or was dismissed, it’s too late for a by-election.

    Basically Napthine has let him off with merely a slight “rap on the knuckles”. Just what else is to be expected?

  14. While Hockey’s claim about how long each of us spends working to support those in need of welfare is obviously bogus, like most he says, speaking as one of those teachers, I would be perfectly happy thinking that one month of my wages each year was supporting those in need.

    I’m not nearly so keen for my wages to be supporting weapons of death or destruction of the environment or torturing asylum seekers. I’d like that part stopped straight away.

  15. Wasn’t it just a few days since PB’s resident sociopath was reprimanding the PB collective for not being sufficiently grateful for the wonderful progress that had been made in Iraq.

    If it wasn’t so tragic…

  16. [DesHoughton ‏@DesHoughton 23m
    Many in the Press gallery will be embarrassed. @PaulBongiorno @dwabriz @PSyvret]

    Facsimile of The Australian’s continuing attack on union corruption (Gillard) and Fairfax.

  17. Hockey on AM…Is it my imagination or is it wall to wall government ministers lining up for a foot massage from Chris Ulhmann?

    I guess it’s just balancing something or other.

  18. special survey by ME Bank of 1500 people nationally found WA, long considered the Liberal Party’s electoral crown jewel, is overwhelmingly negative towards the Budget.

    Almost 70 per cent of WA residents believed they were worse off because of the Budget and a nation-high 78 per cent said it was too harsh on vulnerable people.

  19. Good Morning

    The pressure is going to be on Clive Palmer come July. I would have liked him to oppose repeal of carbon pricing. However that was never more than hope given the self interest.

    What is more realistic is opposing the budget. We may yet see a DD if the rhetoric of Palmer and Hockey becomes reality.

    If that happens we may have only months before carbon pricing is back.

  20. He can’t face any opposing views, the coward.

    [In his meeting with Mr Ban on Tuesday, Mr Abbott sidestepped accepting an invitation to attend a UN-sponsored international conference on climate policy later this year.

    The summit has been timed to precede the annual UN General Assembly session in September in a bid to maximise the involvement of leaders attending that session.

    However, Fairfax Media understands Mr Abbott has no plans to attend either, despite the session coming towards the end of Australia’s membership of the elite UN Security Council.]

    Read more:

  21. The 3 per cent rise fixes the State minimum wage at $25 a week more than its Federal counterpart – a move the WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry said would disproportionately hit small businesses.

    “With unemployment rising, we need a minimum wage that encourages employment growth,” a spokesman said.

    Is it just me or can anyone else see the stupidity of the comment that by the unnamed spokesman?

    My questions = Why wasn’t employment growth happening before the pay rise?

    When the wage was lower why was unemployment rising?

  22. BK

    The university the Tea Party Economics Professor comes from is going to be having an interesting time. His Democratic opponent is also a professor at that university.

  23. Morning all

    David Pope is indeed a beauty this morning. It perfectly illustrates the state of play


    I cant expand the twitter link to the Oz article re the AWU scandal. Can you summarise the content for me, thanks

  24. I saw a tweet from American astrophysicist and science communicator Neil deGrasse Tyson that’s worth repeating:

    “The good thing about science is that it’s true whether or not you believe in it”.

  25. “@ABCNews24: #ABCNews24 will have live coverage of the #ACOSSConf2014 from 9am AEST including speeches from @kevinandrewsmp & @billshortenmp #auspol”

  26. Heard Chris Ulhman interview JHockey on ABC radio earlier. What a lame interview. Ulhman is indeed a tool for the fibs

  27. The big news here in Melbourne is the Vic govt and shaw suspension. The other big news is that AFL footballer Dane Swan attended a function that was attended and organised by “colourful characters”.
    That is what dominated the Age newspaper today

  28. Thanks lizzie

    I was able to expand the article. The poor little Oz are upset that the ABC and fairfax are not interested in reporting the saga, but the Oz will not be distracted.
    You gotta laugh

  29. @latikambourke: Tony Abbott’s gift to President Obama is a custom made Presidential surfboard made in the PM’s home town of Manly:

    Not bad as such things go. Of course it will be all downhill from there

  30. [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 2m
    Tony Abbott’s gift to President Obama is a custom made Presidential surfboard made in the PM’s home town of Manly: ]

    [TONY Abbott has revealed a secret and unlikely admiration for the world’s most powerful leader, describing Barack Obama as an “extraordinarily gifted man” and a potential friend to rival past… ]

  31. lizzie
    Is that the same Obama whose potential victory was described by Abbott’s politcal father John Howard as being a victory for the terrorists?

  32. “@MrCsandDs: Joe Hockey to further explain budget today with the help of stocks, a bucket of old tomatoes & a 19yr old DSP recipient”

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