BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The weekly BludgerTrack poll trend continues a trend of mild recovery for the Coalition following the post-budget slump, although Bill Shorten remains well ahead as preferred prime minister.

Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.

Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.

Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.

The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.

The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,198 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. For the West, the preferred solution to hold Iraq together is a dictator with a vicious nasty streak who hates islamists.

    But they are a bit scarcer than they used to be.

  2. [ DesHoughton ‏@DesHoughton 23m
    Many in the Press gallery will be embarrassed. @PaulBongiorno @dwabriz @PSyvret

    Facsimile of The Australian’s continuing attack on union corruption (Gillard) and Fairfax. ]

    The Australian calls sworn witness statements written by the Victorian Police, organized by Harry Nowicki and signed by internet nut-jobs, petty criminals, jealous, paranoid union officials and 80 year-old builders “assuming” cash they say they saw handed over as being proof of dodgy dealings, “facts”.

    At the same time they call another sworn witness statement from Bruce Wilson “a desperate attempt to muddy the waters”, i.e. to rebut the evidence assembled against him.

    The Australian has used only statements from “their” witnesses – and has used none of the cross-examination or rebuttals – to “prove” there’s no need for a Royal Commission at all. Hedley Thomas has done the Commission’s job for it!

    What a crock!

    Yet I still can’t understand why these people seem to hate Gillard so much. It’s almost visceral. You could cut it with a knife. Every crackpot with an axe to grind has been in contact with Nowicki, Thomas, the Vic Police and now the Royal Commission set up by Tony Abbott to bring the allegations “home”.

    Today’s viewing of Bruce Wilson will be compelling.

  3. BK

    I agree, Bowen did well


    I agree. Hunt walked all over Carabine.
    Not a good look for an interviewer to be totally trumped by a wimp of such gargantuan proportions.

  4. BB
    Unfortunately I’m about to head out for the whole morning and won’t be able to see Wilson so on my return I’ll pop back onto PB to catch up with commentry.

  5. BB

    I too am looking forward to hearing Wilson’s testimony.

    Btw Are you able to post the link to the RC proceedings? Thanks in advance

  6. [Joe O’Brien ‏@joeobrien24 39s
    .Social Services Minister Kevin Andrews due to speak at major ACOSS conf in next few mins – watch live on @abcnews24.]


  7. lizzie@45

    Hockey is trying to bully us into accepting Hockeynomics.
    Shouting and spitting won’t do it, Joe.

    Good of him to throw it all in the faces of those he is trying to make their lives worse – get it all back in the papers.

    The *class warfare* rant for some reason has been a winner for the tories in the past – it certainly was for howard – but this time I doubt it.

    But hockey is running through the usual nonsense he normally sprouts trying to find some thing that *works*.

    He has tried –

    – We all have to pull together – then let the business & high earners off basically.

    – Think of your country – not yourself – then let the business & high earners off basically.

    – There is a Budget emergency – yet this budget does next to nothing to address that false statement.

    – There is no alternative – There is of course – the obvious one is to reduce big ticket tax expenditure like business welfare.

    – Stop complaining – The tories complained for 4 years and are now getting it back.

    – We are doing what the CoA recommended. BS the CoA put up what you wanted them to.

    – We are taking the hard decisions. BS you are reducing the living circumstances of most people who are not wealthy.

    – Complaining about the budget is class warefare. Yes the budget is class warfare by the tories on those who cannot fight back.

    – We make no apologies about this budget. We all know that and we know tories don’t believe in apologies unless they are demanding them.

    No matter how much hockey squawks or rants – this is a nasty budget that punishes while failing to address the fundamental issue of structural deficit.

    No matter how much hockey squawks or rants – hockey and abbott have done a pathetic job of selling this dud budget and it has and will continue to damage the tories politically.

    At least people have now had a good look at hockey and I doubt if he will ever get to be PM.

    The likes of Andrew Elder are doing about the best job in calling hockey and the rest of the tories on all of this – along with Ross Gittens, the Kouk and a bit from Mega George.

    The rest of the media just let it all go through to the keeper – or are asleep.

  8. [ Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 2m
    Tony Abbott’s gift to President Obama is a custom made Presidential surfboard made in the PM’s home town of Manly London : ]

    There fixed now.

    I didn’t know they made surf boards in London ?

  9. “@political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is in Brisbane today and will address the @ACOSS Annual Conference at 10.30am #auspol”

  10. BB

    “Yet I still can’t understand why these people seem to hate Gillard so much. It’s almost visceral.”

    One word too many …. the “almost” has to go.

    As I said the other day, I have a bro-in-law who adores Smith, Kernohan, Blewett and Nowick(i) ….. viscerally adores them.

    It goes without saying that Hadley, Oldfield, AJones, and Bolta he also adores and gets all his “inside info” from them. A tradie, his radio is on them all day, and he relaxes in the evening with Bolt on 2GB.

    One can only speculate about the reasons they all hate JG. I guess it’s a combo ……. add a tablespoon of misogyny to 2 teaspoons of innate redneckery, and 2 cups of unspecified aged grudges.

    Insulate this mixture from all outside knowledge, boil it for 5 years or so in saucepan of lies and deceit, and then add extra flame and reduce the mixture to pure delusion.

    Strain the delusion through a lattice of alcohol damaged neurones, add in a few slimy adept manipulators of the Nowick-Markson genre and bake in a conservative think tank fuelled by Murdochian power.

    Now let a lazy MSM stir the pot, add its own get-Gillard agenda and give a never ending supply of air to the now well desiccated delusion. Let it all rest and “mature” for a further 4 years in an atmosphere of of Abbottesque venom and it’ll “culture” into a delicious poppy seed vengeance cake.

    I think something like that has happened whilst journos and especially the press gallery have been Rip van Winkling for the last decade, more or less.

  11. I start this by reminding everyone how shaky my grasp of maths is, but here goes…

    According to the Treasurer (surely the most important mathematician in the country) 1/12 of each person’s income in Australia goes to supporting someone else.

    This is a remarkable claim.

    Firstly, as we know, a large part of the working population effectively don’t pay tax at all. But we’ll assume Joe’s not talking about them, but about ‘normal’ people (you know, the important ones).

    Fortunately for the mathematically challenged like myself, there’s actually a website which calculates this stuff.

    The average Australian income was 72,800 in 2013.

    On that income, the TOTAL tax a person would pay is $15, 028.

    The social security and welfare contribution is : $5,281

    Given that 72,800 means an income of about $6000 a month, Joe is wrong.

  12. “@SenatorLudlam: .@kevinandrewsmp now mansplaining class warfare to assembled service providers at #ACOSSConf2014 #Budget2014”

  13. Mr Denmore on twitter

    [So when the rich & powerful kick the heads of the rest, that’s tough ‘reform’. When the rest fight back, that’s 1970s class warfare? #auspol]

  14. I wonder how long I have to work to help pay the cost of law and order to contain the crime as a result of poverty.

    And how long to pay for corporate welfare and negative gearing.

  15. How much does the average person on welfare receive?

    Joe ignores people who have essentially paid for their own welfare, such as the elderly, through their own labour during the course of their working life. That group alone comprises 40% of the welfare budget.

  16. DisplayName

    Just heard on ABC radio that 75% of fhe welfare budget is allocated to the age pension. Not sure how accurate this is though

  17. BK – Pope in the groove.

    Meher – Yes. Truzzz boring as batsh#t but he does listen and reads his briefing documents. An example the interview he gave from RAAF Pearce re’ MH 370 no dramatics like Tones and when some questions of a technical nature came up he immediately let the two RAAF guys answer rather than ad libbing.

  18. meher baba@18

    I reckon that the David Pope cartoon this morning is one of the cleverest I’ve seen in years. 10/10!

    BK: you and others like to ridicule Warren Truss a fair bit. And he is undoubtedly one of the most uncharismatic people ever to go into politics.

    But I watched him on Insiders and felt that the content of what he said was light years ahead of the likes of Abbott, Hockey and Pyne. He had mastered his briefing, spun as much as he felt was reasonable, and was unfailingly polite at all times.

    Contrast that to the others mentioned, who typically aren’t across the facts, consistently ignore the question and are rude and aggressive, and parrot catch phrases which are detached from reality.

    In short, Truss would be a much better PM than any of the leading Libs. IMO.

    I agree about Truss and have never quite understood the depth of antipathy toward him on PB.

    Certainly not Mr Charisma, but miles in front of any Lib I can think of in other respects.

  19. Socrates@21

    So much for mission accomplished. The Iraqi army simply ran away rather than stop insurgents taking over four cities. The looted weapons are being sent across to Syria.

    Have a good day all. Agreed, David Pope cartoon is brilliant. Perhaps he could work Joe Hockey into a Mickey Mouse theme, trying to conjure up the budget?

    Goofy would be the best fit for Hockey.

  20. Thinking about Credlin attending dinner with Rupert and friends, she was either there to prompt Abbott when he lost the thread, or to take notes for future Coalition policy.
    Or perhaps to pour him into a car when he’d had a little too much?

  21. Bemused and Meher Baba

    Yes, we all like to make fun of Truss, but for my money he would be far better than any of the Libs as a replacement for Abbott.

    He is a calm, sober type who can actually engage n discussion on a rational basis, albeit that I don’t agree with most of his basic assumptions.

    He exhibits IMHO an appropriate gravitas to the position, and certainly would never let crass political comment enter his words on formal or ceremonial occasions.

    OS he would not generate any of the scorn and embarrassment Abbott does.

  22. psyclaw@86

    Bemused and Meher Baba

    Yes, we all like to make fun of Truss, but for my money he would be far better than any of the Libs as a replacement for Abbott.

    He is a calm, sober type who can actually engage n discussion on a rational basis, albeit that I don’t agree with most of his basic assumptions.

    He exhibits IMHO an appropriate gravitas to the position, and certainly would never let crass political comment enter his words on formal or ceremonial occasions.

    OS he would not generate any of the scorn and embarrassment Abbott does.

    He would probably go almost unnoticed, which is certainly better than being a conspicuous fool like Tone.

  23. [ Yes, we all like to make fun of Truss ]

    He is in a senior public position and is only coping what others cop.

    Labor people in similar positions get far worse from the tories and have over many many years.

    Truss dishes it out along with the best as well.

    MB & Truuss need to HTFU.

  24. CTar1

    The next of The Independent’s 100 Moments . I did not realise just how brave Siegfried Sassoon was on the battlefield. He definitely deserved the nickname his comrades gave him , Mad Jack.

    [‘Mad Jack’ takes on the War Office

    “I am writing you this private letter with the greatest possible regret. I must inform you that it is my intention to refuse to perform any further military duties. I am doing this as a protest… I am fully aware of what I am letting myself in for.”]

  25. Sadly, Dyson Heydon is not after the truth it would appear.

    Nowicki’s coaching of other witnesses is not relevant apparently

  26. sprocket_@93

    Sadly, Dyson Heydon is not after the truth it would appear.

    Nowicki’s coaching of other witnesses is not relevant apparently

    The Commish certainly looks to be making it hard for Wilson to tell his version of things – as it relates to Nowicki in this instance.

    Bad look. Kangaroo Court.

  27. Since when did compassion and the ideal of a fair go become dirty words?

    Hockey likes to politically label advocates who aspire for the best in human nature as failures and something to be feared.


    The system is not perfect, people still fall through the cracks and there will always be those that no amount of help will be of benefit but do we really want a country that lives by the creed that greed and selfishness is good, a dog eat dog mentality and the less fortunate and vulnerable can go f*ck themselves?

    Grrr…better stop now I’m so friggin angry! 😡

  28. @Dee

    The whole notion about “think about how this affects you first, screw the other people” is what I can’t get my head around.

  29. Dee

    You may be even more angry “soon”. 🙁

    [Judith Ireland ‏@CanberraCamper 57m
    Andrews says that the discussion paper on further welfare changes will be released “soon” – hopefully when PM gets back from overseas.]

  30. “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: The rich must not ignore the poor because they are both tied in a single garment of destiny #ACOSSConf2014 #auspol”

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