Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).
The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.
Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.
Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.
The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.
The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.
[1784
Everything
Great, so the world is doing what you want, so Australia doesn’t need to do anything and we can take the economic advantage and get richer, while getting the benefit from the carbon reductions the rest of the world are generating then?]
Are you suggesting that bludging is an acceptable public policy position? That we should become free-riders and be proud of it too? This is much like arguing we should become a nation of swindlers and thieves.
The LNP’ vision – free-riding!
briefly
There are the lifters and then there are the leaners.
Mod, for the past half hour or longer, you’ve been talking to people who aren’t Boerwar. Not only that, you have raised your own points and made assertions independently of Boerwar’s comment.
Bludging would be if Australia was not producing anything and asked the rest of the world to pay us unemployment benefits cos we couldn’t be bothered.
What I was pointing out was that IF you think the rest of the world is acting appropriately on global warming (are you?) then the planet is safe and there is no reason for US to impose brakes on our economy with carbon taxes.
The reality is that the rest of the world IS NOT doing what is needed. That is the whole point. So when you say that Abbott is backward and going against the tide, you are completely wrong. Abbott if at the forefront of international inaction and faux measures.
Everything, how about not being obtuse for once ?
[Laura Tingle @latingle 54s
Abbott drops plan for national war ceremony http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/abbott_drops_plan_for_national_war_43G6bMfGcrirNkOdzzZ7bJ … ]
Well, that brainfart didn’t last long, did it!
For example.
We have this comment
[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/emissions-cuts-still-on-target-hunt/story-fn3dxiwe-1226954857211
Everyone happy?]
Which is addressed to everyone, not just Boerwar.
‘Free-loading’ is the best way to describe Everything’s view of Australia’s role in the world.
DN:
You are criticising me for making a comment in relation to Boerwar’s comment and then responding to the several commenters addressing me.
What do you suggest?
1. I should not have made a response to Boerwar’s original comment?
2. I should not have made a response to all of your responses to me?
3. I should just agree with the group think?
Re E @1774:
…and BOTH sides of Australian politics plan to achieve the exact same outcome on that score.
Both sides SAY they plan to achieve the same outcome but only one side means it or has anything like a credible plan to achieve it.
[DisplayName
….Everyone happy?
Which is addressed to everyone, not just Boerwar.]
Indeed it was.
I was asking whether everyone here was happy that we were meeting the bipartisan target.
Apparently we are not all happy!
🙂
sohar
…except when it comes to ‘non-occupied East Jerusalem’ where Australia is doing the heavy lifting and the rest of the world is doing the leaning.
I am not criticising you, I am pointing out that when you saying you’re just responding to Boerwar, your lips are moving.
[Yesiree Bob
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 11:16 am | PERMALINK
Everything, how about not being obtuse for once ?]
I try, but it is hard in the alternate universe here!
:devil:
You are not just responding to Boerwar, you raised your own points, addressed to everyone. Why bother even building an argument based on such obvious lies?
Laura Tingle @latingle 54s
Abbott drops plan for national war ceremony http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/abbott_drops_plan_for_national_war_43G6bMfGcrirNkOdzzZ7bJ …
Well, that brainfart didn’t last long, did it!
Didn’t need to. The story worked when he needed it – tailored for the time. What happens later is irrelevant.
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 11:19 am | PERMALINK
I am not criticising you, I am pointing out that when you saying you’re just responding to Boerwar, your lips are moving.]
Oh good. So this wasn’t a criticism?
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 11:15 am | PERMALINK
Mod, for the past half hour or longer, you’ve been talking to people who aren’t Boerwar. Not only that, you have raised your own points and made assertions independently of Boerwar’s comment.]
Mod @ 1817, I simply pointed out who you were talking to, because you didn’t seem to be paying attention.
BW, And the Palestinians are lapping up all the luxuries accrued from the stances of those that oppose Australia’s view.
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 11:22 am | PERMALINK
Mod @ 1817, I simply pointed out who you were talking to, because you didn’t seem to be paying attention.]
OK, thanks!
Let me quote you again:
[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/emissions-cuts-still-on-target-hunt/story-fn3dxiwe-1226954857211
Everyone happy?]
and again
[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/emissions-cuts-still-on-target-hunt/story-fn3dxiwe-1226954857211
Everyone happy?]
And because you might still not have noticed who you were addressing, again:
[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/emissions-cuts-still-on-target-hunt/story-fn3dxiwe-1226954857211
Everyone happy?]
Actually, I don’t think I can point it out enough. It’s clearly not obvious:
[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/emissions-cuts-still-on-target-hunt/story-fn3dxiwe-1226954857211
Everyone happy?]
Re Lizzie @1806 – I think that should be ‘War Cemetery’. The AFR headline also says ‘Ceremony’.
I don’t have a problem with the pronciple, although those now buried in war cemeteries around the world should, in my opininion, be left undisturbed.
One would hope that such a war cemetery would not be needed to accomodate future war dead, but history is against that.
Let me shorten it to the relevant bit
[Everyone happy?]
I think arguing with a fool like Everything is the very definition of futility, but some of you seem to enjoy it for some reason.
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 11:24 am | PERMALINK
Let me quote you again:]
Let me point out a couple of things (again)
1. I have every right to post here. If I want to post a link to an article and ask what people think, that is perfectly fine.*
2. You seem to go out of your way to make points about my motives and my rights to post. You almost never address the specific issues I am discussing and address those. Remember my previous discussions with you- well here is yet another example!
*notwithstanding William’s right to ban me or condemn me given it is his blog.
Just in case you still can’t figure it out, I’ll draw your attention to the use of the word “everyone”.
Mad Lib@1809
My suggestions for you.
1. Stop your nonsensical trolling.
2. Cease your irrational war on climate science.
3. Cease your advocacy of Australia being a freeloader.
Just in case you still can’t figure it out DN, I have every right to ask everyone a question.
I am Everything to everyone, after all! :devil:
nappin
As i said last night. People should take note of what Abbott does. Not what he says
That is a blooper of the sort you get when you sack all your subbies.
Abbott is dropping plans for a national war cemetery, not ‘ceremony’.
Anyhoo, the original ‘plan’ by this ‘adult’ was yet another example of the Village Idiots at work and play.
Here is why: creating a national war cemetery requires corpses. The existing corpses are already in war graves – often in context and always well looked after.
Relocating tens of thousands of existing war corpses would cost an absolute motsa.
But perhaps Abbott is planning on creating yet another lot of Australian war corpses as a result of yet another stupid stunt war started by yet another set of conservative ratbags?
A rather entertaining Soccer match is on at the moment.
The blue team is beating the orange team 1 nil.
[bemused
….My suggestions for you.
1. Stop your nonsensical trolling.]
Bzzt. wRONg.
[2. Cease your irrational war on climate science.]
Bzzt. wRONg.
[3. Cease your advocacy of Australia being a freeloader.]
Bzzt. wRONg.
0/3….thats not a bad score for you bemused!
Notice how all the comments are personal attacks against me? No-one able to address the substantive issues, just hate.
Remember what I said about the left being hate driven, rather than issues driven?
I have not, once, in this discussion, objected to any of the things you imply I object to. There’s no need for me to say anything more.
[DisplayName
…There’s no need for me to say anything more.]
Agreed.
Steve777
Yes, I noticed the mistake in the headline. Obviously meant cemetery.
nappin
Do I detect a cynical disbelief in Abbott’s real intentions? 😉
You seem to be having a particularly strenuous workout this morning Mod Lib. Sunday should be a day of rest whilst watching the (now soaked) blue and orange teams run around the park, as Bob points out.
There are over 100,000 Australians buried in graves o/s. Let’s say it costs $50,000 per war corpse to exhume, transport, and rebury each one. That’s half a billion dollars for a Village Idiot brainfart when the budget is under pressure from the changed war pension indexation, getting rid of the carbon tax, getting rid of the MRRT, boosting expenditure on Klutzfighters, boosting expenditure or yet more clogged roads, and the PPL entitlements already.
Moi, lizzie?
Mad Lib@1835
Bzzt. Entirely wRONg with all your responses.
No hate involved but certainly a degree of annoyance that a person who purports to be highly qualified and intelligent resorts to the rubbish you do.
Where are the personal attacks? I merely offered you a few suggestions in response to some you made.
Methinks you doth protest too much.
I have some good news for everyone*
I am almost through watching the McLaughlin group this week and then Im off!
*there is that damn word again! :devil:
bemused, there is no point talking to someone incapable of understanding what is being said.
Mod Lib showing true self this morning, wrong side of the bed?
Telling us to stop being a freeloader? Perhaps you should say that to Corporate Australia? They are the biggest freeloaders in the World.
Wants to pay no taxes at all, wants to dig up our land for free, wants to take over political parties for their own policies.
[zoidlord
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 11:40 am | PERMALINK
Mod Lib showing true self this morning, wrong side of the bed?
Telling us to stop being a freeloader? Perhaps you should say that to Corporate Australia? They are the biggest freeloaders in the World.]
I do.
Everything: “Corporate Australia, you should stop being freeloaders”
[A study published in the peer-reviewed Open Journal of Pediatrics has found that radioactive iodine from Fukushima has caused a significant increase in hypothyroidism among babies in California.(6) Even though Japan is 5000 miles across the Pacific Ocean, the study found that elevated airborne beta levels on the West Coast are directly correlated with this common trend among newborn babies after the Fukushima nuclear meltdown.]
http://www.collective-evolution.com/2014/04/11/high-radiation-levels-found-in-north-american-seafood-fukushima/
Boerwar@1840
A lot of people seem to not realise that in Australia, graves often have a limited tenure. They are not in perpetuity.
I tend to look a bit askance at the obsession with graves of our war dead that have endured longer than the tenure offered in Australia and even more so to recover skeletal remains of soldiers having no living direct descendants. Let them rest undisturbed with their comrades.
I am all for appropriate memorials to the fallen and the memory of their sacrifices.
DisplayName@1844
I tend to agree. She is ineducable I am afraid.
But sometimes the nonsense just gets too much and I respond to Mad Lib.
Is it already at the stage that no matter what Abbott, Hockey, Pyne, Brandis, Dutton, Hunt etc say, no one believes them anymore?