Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,759 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 27 of 36
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  2. B, dIO

    [Many countries were involved and it caused much more death and suffering than the actual revolution…]

    Comrades, a spot of reactionary roader revisionism would be in order here.

  3. Andrews declaring High Noon for next Tuesday to deal with Shaw in the Parliament puts all the pressure on Napthine to respond.

    If the Government squib it they will be looking very tawdry indeed.

    The seeking further information excuse is not going to fly with the electorate.

  4. Boerwar@1298

    The ACT budget will be costing yrs truly around $3,000 over forward estimates. Most of that is in rates and car-related costs.

    Our union-dominated featherbedding will not be affected at all.

    For these ADDITIONAL costs over and above what I was already paying, I get no additional services at all.

    However, I will be getting the pleasure of watching our ship of fools head determinedly for a monstrous fiscal reef.

    The Labor/Greens are flogging off whatever they can sell.

    The Labor/Greens are adding $1,000 per capita to the ACT debt in a single year.

    Unemployment is going up.

    House prices are going south.

    Land taxes are going up by $40 million.

    Money being magic, they are pissing away $22 million to STUDY the Light Rail Train Wreck. I assume that the proposed route will skirt the Gungahlin cemetery. This might be the appropriate terminus for the Labor/Greens M.A.D. The problem is that these bastards are going to take the rest of us down with them.

    Oh, and to address the endless sea of deficits, they are employing ADDITIONAL public servants.

    Land sales are going to go nowhere fast.

    There is already enough empty office space in which to play a complete round of AFL footy.

    Meanwhile back in Shamblesville, the ACT Young Liberals, ever alert to macro issues, are debating bringing back caning.

    The ACT’s vision statement?

    ‘Fukt R Us’

    Don’t worry, your farqwit ‘Informal Party’ will fix it all up. 😐

  7. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1300

    Bemused,
    I summarised what Hawke said into a few words. He said wtte giving people a chance at lifting themselves up through education means your welfare costs are less over time.

    And I would rather be an unemployed graduate who can go overseas or interstate to get a job than an unemployed labourer or shelf stacker who no-one is interested in employing.

    Yes, it is important that we have the best educated unemployed in the world!

    The lessons of Keynes have been forgotten and governments are prepared to accept economies running at far less than full employment.

  10. bemused

    [It does nothing to address the problem that there are many times the number of unemployed job seekers as there are job vacancies]

    Not the point you were raising.

    [This problem is studiously ignored by both sides of politics and it DOES affect graduates.]

    Nonsense. Part of the reason Labor went into debt was to keep people employed – and to create employment for others.

    Of course graduates experience periods of unemployment, and of course a ‘bad’ employment market – which we don’t really have at present, although there are several indications that it is worsening – hits graduates.

    But the point is that it doesn’t hit them as badly, they are still more employable than non graduates, and over their lifetime they are less likely to rely on welfare (as Hawke was pointing out) than non graduates.

    “I know a graduate who is unemployed, therefore unemployment is a problem for graduates” is not good reasoning. We rely on statistics because anecdotal evidence is unreliable.

    And, in the case of graduates, the evidence is that Hawke’s statement is correct.

  12. GG

    Dennis made the mistake of mentioning Shaw requesting he make judicial appointments of people as sugggested by him. Napthine that it was ludicrous. But not ludicrous enough to report Shaw for these indiscretions. Funny that

  15. zoomster@1310

    bemused

    It does nothing to address the problem that there are many times the number of unemployed job seekers as there are job vacancies


    Not the point you were raising.

    This problem is studiously ignored by both sides of politics and it DOES affect graduates.


    Nonsense. Part of the reason Labor went into debt was to keep people employed – and to create employment for others.

    Of course graduates experience periods of unemployment, and of course a ‘bad’ employment market – which we don’t really have at present, although there are several indications that it is worsening – hits graduates.

    But the point is that it doesn’t hit them as badly, they are still more employable than non graduates, and over their lifetime they are less likely to rely on welfare (as Hawke was pointing out) than non graduates.

    “I know a graduate who is unemployed, therefore unemployment is a problem for graduates” is not good reasoning. We rely on statistics because anecdotal evidence is unreliable.

    And, in the case of graduates, the evidence is that Hawke’s statement is correct.

    Well thanks for lecturing me on what I was well aware of about the GFC stimulus.

    I don’t “know a graduate who is unemployed”, I know many graduates and highly qualified people who are.

  17. bemused

    The Informal Party has the next election in the ACT taped.

    Following its general principle, ‘If a party is not worth voting for, it is worth not voting for’ the Informal Party anticipates that, echoing the last federal election, the informal vote will skyrocket.

    That apart, the wastrels who are wrecking the joint now will get the heave ho from the wreckers-in-waiting.

    Fukt R Us.

  18. Bemused
    So are you saying that you do not agree with Hawke that we should make education a priority for the good of the nation, and to give people opportunity?

  21. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1318

    Bemused
    So are you saying that you do not agree with Hawke that we should make education a priority for the good of the nation, and to give people opportunity?

    Oh, I agree entirely with what Hawke says.
    I disagree over things he is not saying!

    Governments in Australia have lost sight of the objective of maintaining full employment.

  22. That sounds like the mantra when I was at high school, that it was no use wasting money on educating females because they would not get a job anyway.

  23. bemused

    Well, why did you say neither side of politics had addressed the issue of unemployment then, if you knew that Labor had?

    [I don’t “know a graduate who is unemployed”, I know many graduates and highly qualified people who are.]

    Indeed, and so do I. But that doesn’t mean that the statement ‘graduates are less likely to need welfare over their lives than non graduates, therefore if you wish to reduce the pressure on welfare, encourage people to further their education’ (or wtte – basically what Hawke said) is incorrect.

  27. zoomster@1323

    bemused

    Well, why did you say neither side of politics had addressed the issue of unemployment then, if you knew that Labor had?

    I don’t “know a graduate who is unemployed”, I know many graduates and highly qualified people who are.


    Indeed, and so do I. But that doesn’t mean that the statement ‘graduates are less likely to need welfare over their lives than non graduates, therefore if you wish to reduce the pressure on welfare, encourage people to further their education’ (or wtte – basically what Hawke said) is incorrect.

    Labor did the right thing in response to the GFC but is prepared to accept too high a level of unemployment as normal.

  29. I asked the waitperson at our regular coffee shop what she thought of having to compete with work-for-the-dole waitpersons in terms of pay, penalties and entitlements.

    This particular individual had not heard that this was even possible, let alone being actively pursued by The Rapacity.

    BTW, Labor should really put Not-for-Profits very, very high on its list of parliamentary enquiries cum Royal Commissions.

    A lot of these have become rorting, tax-avoiding vehicles for your typical greed-is-good rapacity spivs.

    Not necessarily apropos of that comment at all, we would all recall Sinodinos’ very, very hasty decision to resign from a swag of Not-for-Profits. Nor would we forget that AWH, a salubrious organisation if there ever was one, was on the Not-for-Profit tax merry-go-round as well at one stage.

    The reason I raise the issue at this juncture is that The Rapacity has identified work-for-the-dole opportunities in the Not-for-Profit sector.

  30. Education is an investment in a countries future. It should be one of the highest priorities of government.

    Of course, a degree and a grad dip doesn’t stop me from typing “countries” when I should have typed “country’s”.

    I guess it’s not a surprise that my spelling and grammar skills seem inversely proportional to my typing speed.

  31. Want a job? Phshaw. Come to the ACT.

    The Labor/Greens are ‘ensuring’ today’s featherbedded jobs by stealing from our next generation.

  35. You know they’re in trouble when even Joe Hockey stops trash-talking the economy.

    Now using the “will get even better if the Budget is passed” line.

    It was pretty obvious, but it took him a while to twig that slagging off today’s economy doesn’t bode well for tomorrow’s.

  36. On the benefits of education to employment Zoomster is correct.

    The unemployment rate for the tertiary educated is considerable lower than it is for the unskilled.

    The primary reason why graduates struggle for a period of time is a lack of experience.

    Experience both in terms of work but also demonstrating the correct behaviors expected in the workplace.

    P.S we can’t all be corrupt spiv union officials

  37. Bushfire Bill@1335

    You know they’re in trouble when even Joe Hockey stops trash-talking the economy.

    Now using the “will get even better if the Budget is passed” line.

    It was pretty obvious, but it took him a while to twig that slagging off today’s economy doesn’t bode well for tomorrow’s.

    Yeah, that’s real convincing!

    Even the threat that it might get passed has confidence plummeting.

  38. Many older workers do also allow their skill sets to slip out of date or under sell themselves.

    I appreciate it can be difficult for someone who has worked the same job for many years but it is important for all job seekers too keep their skills up to date and be willign to work the system.

    In some ways job seeking is like election campaigning

  39. I reckon that Shorten would be very wise to present an alternative Labor budget before the budget bills and related program bills get to the House or the Senate.

    The sums are easy.

  44. @1339 – I completely agree with you… even if not a full Budget – at least show alternative measures that are the most offensive.

  45. mexicanbeemer@1336

    On the benefits of education to employment Zoomster is correct.

    The unemployment rate for the tertiary educated is considerable lower than it is for the unskilled.

    The primary reason why graduates struggle for a period of time is a lack of experience.

    Experience both in terms of work but also demonstrating the correct behaviors expected in the workplace.

    P.S we can’t all be corrupt spiv union officials

    So you don’t see a problem with ‘graduate jobs’ requiring ‘experience’?

    What it indicates to me is a labour market where there is an excess supply of graduates, or put another way, a shortage of graduate jobs, so that employers put up barriers like that to screen out some of the flood of applicants.

  48. [BTW, Labor should really put Not-for-Profits very, very high on its list of parliamentary enquiries cum Royal Commissions.
    ]

    Yeah that would be popular lol

  49. Diogenes/Bemused/ and others
    re Intervention in Russia post 1917
    ____________________________
    I seem to recall that there is a reference to the Australian soldiers sent to Murmansk to try to put down the Russian Revolution ….in the War Memorial in Canberra

    Years ago I had a friend whose father had served in the First WW and was one of that party of Australian sent from the Western Front in 1918 to Murmansk

    The campagn was an attempt by conservatives to put down a socialist revolution in Russia
    In the case of Lloyd George in the UK it led to threats by the Labor Movement in the UK of a general strike and similarly in France,and in fact to a partial mutiny in the French Fleet after units were sent into the Black Sea to try to seize the Crimea
    One of the mutiny’s leader,Marty,went on to be a founder of the French Communist Party

    As well ,the Japanese military for a time occupied Far Eastern Siberia and the port of Vladivostok
    By 1922 Trosky’s Red Army had defeated all these incursions into the Soviet Union

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