Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.
Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.
In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.
As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.
UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.
Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.
Bemused
It is true that some industries have structural issues which are not being helped by the use of 457 visas
The primary reason for seeking experience is and i never understood this until i went to university but the workload and informal nature of it doesn’t prepare you for the workplace.
Hence what employers are really saying is we don’t the hassle of telling you how to behave even though organisations will send new starters off to be trained in their procedures and processes.
@1364 – it’s not about a Budget, it’s about saying “the government said it had no options, well here are measures that don’t hurt etc etc and deliver savings and return the Budget to surplus faster”…
The primary reason why my older daughter is doing her electrical engineering degree via Swinburne uni. She has completed three years of study, and now this her fourth year she is doing her Industry based learning year. She has a job in the industry for one year in which she is paid a salary. Once she completes this year, she goes back to Uni to complete her degree
[In some ways job seeking is like election campaigning
]
What it is a decision made by largely uniformed clowns who invariably select the the most skillful liar?
The other problem is the recruitment industry is mostly made up of sales people who are focused on job churn and buzzwords.
[
What it is a decision made by largely uniformed clowns who invariably select the the most skillful liar?
]
I think that would sum up a lot of hiring policies in today’s business world. lol
Victoria that is a very successful program.
WWP
😉
hockey auditioning?
Bish the Younger is wearing a horseblanket.
The moment the opposition presents anything resembling a budget the opposition becomes the story. Do we really want people to forget this budget?
Hockey is the nastiest, truth-twisting bully I’ve seen for a while.
deblonay
HMAS Swan also went to the Black Sea.
JulieB has a very whiney voice.
why are these people still fighting the last election?
lizzie
Yeah, Hockey is a nasty piece of work.
Kinkajou
We’re getting there. Bob Hawke was getting quite a run in the last week.
and today, nice to see forward planning
An article from News.com.au. The map (second link) is from Fairfax.
[Undersea audio recording could hold MH370 clue, say Curtin University researchers in Perth
AN audio recording of an underwater sound captured off the coast of Perth could be related to the final moments of missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.
Researchers from Curtin University near Perth have been examining records from underwater listening devices in a bid to help find the plane, which vanished in March.
One signal, which was picked up off Rottnest Island just after 1.30am UTC on March 8, could have resulted from Flight MH370 crashing into the Indian Ocean but could also have originated from a natural event, such as a small earth tremor.
“The CTBTO station receives a lot of sound from the Southern Ocean and Antarctic coastline, which is why the signal showed up more noticeably on the Rottnest recorder.
“Using the three hydrophones from the Cape Leeuwin station, it was possible to get a precise bearing that showed the signal came from the northwest.”
“Comparing the arrival time of the signal at the IMOS recorder with the time of its arrival at the Cape Leeuwin station, it was possible for Curtin’s Centre for Marine Science and Technology team to come up with an approximate distance to the source of the sound along this northwest bearing.
The Curtin University researchers believe the sound came from an area thousands of kilometres to the northwest of the current search area in the southern Indian Ocean.
“At the moment (the sound) appears to be inconsistent with other data about the aircraft position,” Mr Duncan said.
Mr Duncan said his team has calculated an “uncertainty box” for the signal’s origin.
It is an area that stretches some 4000km in length from southeast to northwest, and spans some 200 to 300km in width. And he says the centre is south of the tip of India.
http://www.news.com.au/national/undersea-audio-recording-could-hold-mh370-clue-say-curtin-university-researchers-in-perth/story-fncynjr2-1226942565742 ]
Here’s the line they have drawn.
Note its center, not the actual tip of India, but well south of it… just South West of the group of atolls in the Maldives where the plane was allegedly sighted.
Well, he and Morrison are effectively given free reign due to an INeffective opposition who are incapable of holding them to account on their deceptive and non-factual offerings.
I have just turned QT off. It is as much as I can bear.
I understand that the Vic Constitution now has a clause which lays down the time frame for by-elections,so the timing is not now in the hands of the Speaker or the Govt of the day
This would mean that if Shaw is removed from P’Ment next Tuesday we must see a by-election in Frankston in early July,and given the,likelihood of a Labor victory there ,the P’ment will then be 44/44
BTW All parties have now chosen candidates for Frankston,though a clear Labor victory would be the likely result,based on past polling…and the degree of hostility to the Libs in Vic currently… Thanks Joe !
what then ?
BB
Would that put the sound in the area mentioned by the bloke on the oil rig and the woman sailing between India and Thailand?
Pynes has got rid of low suchenomic foe Low SES
Man of the moment Geoff Shaw has popped his head up.
[
Geoff Shaw has denied using his balance-of-power clout to make demands for a judicial appointment, claiming his concerns have always related to Victoria’s abortion laws.
The balance-of-power independent has also vowed not to back down on his threat to back a no-confidence motion against Denis Napthine, who he said had refused to guarantee that former Speaker Ken Smith would be prevented from voting with Labor to expel him.
In a press conference on Tuesday night, Dr Napthine declared he would not be held to ransom by Mr Shaw, and accused him of making several extraordinary demands, including for a “particular judicial appointment”.
But Mr Shaw hit back in an interview with Fairfax Media, saying he had never made such a demand, but rather had pressed Dr Napthine over Victoria’s abortion laws, particularly a rule forcing doctors who object to the procedure to refer patients to doctors with no objection.
]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/napthine-government-crisis-geoff-shaw-denies-judicial-appointment-claim-20140604-39imo.html#ixzz33dvQzOcw
Just a low pathetic offering that exposes Hockey.
It was his party that voted against a proposition of deterrent for boat people.
The moment the opposition presents anything resembling a budget the opposition becomes the story. Do we really want people to forget this budget?
Imagine if Abbott had been prevailed upon to present an alternative budget last year. It would have stopped him in his tracks.
Labor shouldn’t present an alternative budget but stick to its principles, call bullshit on the ‘budget emergency’ and ‘debt and deficit disaster’ lies at every opportunity and attack the specifics of Hockey’s budget.
Of course we know some of the specifics that Labor would do – a modest tax on high super pensions, retain carbon pricing, retain the mining tax, keep the current PPL scheme, various modest savings proposed last year that the current government has dropped.
The Independent Alliance urges those watching QT to consider their preferences closely at the next election.
Rex D
No matter what Joe is asked, he resorts to lying and blustering and mocking. He also repeats the same untruths day after day, and Bronnie does not hold him to the question.
Boats are getting a real run by the gov’t. Things must be pretty dire for the gov’t in the focus groups.
[BB
Would that put the sound in the area mentioned by the bloke on the oil rig and the woman sailing between India and Thailand?]
I don’t know. I didn’t see precise locations for either. But the proximity of the center of the line to the southern group of Maldives islands (where the sighting was made) was what interested me. This is around 800 kilometes north of Diego Garcia.
There was never any reason given for the rebuttal of the Maldives sighting. It was just dismissed.
Which would have been OK, exept there were dozens of witnesses, and in that area there’s nothing else that would have made that sound, even a jetliner, as jetliners don’t usually go that far south.
I decided to take a break from QT today.
Feel a lot better. 🙂
victoria@1353
IBL is a great idea and will certainly help her clear one hurdle in gaining employment.
Fom what I am reading on twitter regarding QT I think the Late Doc Neeson’s group the angels song reply has got it right about this government.
No way get ……………………………………off
bemused
Indeed. The experience my daughter has gained to date has been invaluable
Actually, re-drawing that line using Google Maps grid as a guide, puts its center due south of the Maldives and only 500 kilometres north of Diego Garcia. Given that it had a 300 kilometre wide window, then subtracting half of that – another 150 kilometres – puts its southernmost point in that area potentially only 350 kilometres north of Diego Garcia.
Rex Douglas@1369
You truly are an idiot Rex.
What can the opposition do to stop them lying?
All the opposition can do is call them out for it and expose the lies.
“@political_alert: Shadow Employment Minister Minister @BOConnorMP will hold a doorstop on the Fair Work Commission’s minimum wage decision at 3.30pm #auspol”
Bushfire Bill
Interesting about the proximity to the Maldives as there was this report a couple of months back.
[Possible Fire Suppression Bottle of an aircraft lands on Maldives beach
On 25 March, a mysterious object, possibly a fire suppression bottle of an aircraft washed up ashore at Baarah, Maldives. Islanders first thought of it as a bomb and reported to authorities. The Maldives military has said its not an explosive device, ]
http://www.maldivesfinest.com/mh370-evidence
victoria@1384
It is great to see young women doing things like engineering. Keep me posted on her progress.
@GuardianAus: Fair Work Australia raises minimum wage by 50c per hour to $16.87 http://t.co/Q8XyrZdHze
Just been to an anti-budget-pro health rally organised by the SA Health Coalition at SA Parliament House. Speakers included SA Premier, Health Minister, various reps of health related groups including a vice-president of the SA AMA.
Best original banner “Budget Smuggler”. Best speaker words “Don’t make our Medicare cards into Credit cards”. Best chant “It works It’s Fair It’s Medicare.
About 1500 present. Mostly health workers who then caught buses to go back to work. Thanks to their colleagues for holding the fort.
BB
A picture of an aircraft one
Big Clive apologises to Peta Credlin
[
Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 4m
Clive Palmer says he has written to PM Abbott’s CoS to apologise is he caused her any anguish by singling her out in parental leave debate.
]
[
Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 3m
Clive Palmer “It was a matter of great regret if I in anyway offended her personally,” but says he was pointing out Peta Credlin’s salary.
]
https://twitter.com/latikambourke
Malcolm Farr @farrm51 7h
Wonderful to see people not previously prominent in fighting sexism in politics now rallying others to speak out on the issue.
bemused
Will do
Maybe Clive can take Peta for a drive around the Lake
Sir mad
Good move by Clive. What he said was out of order
vic
I agree!
@GreensMPs: Live now watch @senatormilne discussing the Clean Energy Finance corporation in #estimates #ActOnClimate http://t.co/pQdWxD2pBj
CTar1
I’m torn between JC and Jim Chalmers. Jim’s top draw too. I just need a youth drug to see either one as PM 🙂