Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,759 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 29 of 36
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  1. BB

    The only ‘rebuttal’ (which wasn’t really a rebuttal) about the Maldives siting of MH370 was that it was flying the wrong direction, so NW to SE across the sky.

  2. [1396
    shellbell
    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 3:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Maybe Clive can take Peta for a drive around the Lake
    ]

    In that case Peta would be safe from another DUI.

    And shouldn’t Peta be gallivanting round the world with the Lying Friar?

  3. If anyone’s interested, I’ve drawn and posted a map from Google Earth that pretty faithfully reproduces the Curtin University Line in the area near The Maldives and the British Indian Ocean Territory.

    Youse’ll have to take my word for it that I was pretty careful to line it up properly with landmarks in Australia and Asia, based on the Curtin Uni map, then transferred to Google Earth.

    The link is to the image only, as published over the road.

  4. [BB

    The only ‘rebuttal’ (which wasn’t really a rebuttal) about the Maldives siting of MH370 was that it was flying the wrong direction, so NW to SE across the sky.]

    OK, but let’s not forget this plane had made several turns in the previous few hours.

  6. Jenny Macklin’s BP must be sky-high after the continuous sledging by Dutton, in which he is supported by Bronnie over and over again.

  8. imacca

    That was Truzz’s theme song throughout QT. He actually became quite animated and shouty as he repeated “Labor, Labor!”

  9. [DEFENCE Minister David Johnston has angrily blamed Labor for the grounding of Tony Abbott’s executive jet, saying the former government should have retired the ageing VIP fleet last year.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/vip-jets-should-have-been-retired-last-year-coalition/story-fn59niix-1226942643246# ]

    Let us all sit back, shall we, as we quietly contemplate the wailing and gnashing of teeth from The Australian and Abbott had Julia Gillard done so?

    Renovations to the Lodge were bad enough. The Foreign Minister off on junkets… OVERSEAS!… we noted.

    Just imagine if a fleet of VIP jets were purchased with taxpayers’ money!

  11. Abbott must have hated it. Defunding the CFC only to kearn that like any bank they do not need government funds to continue to operate.

  15. Is the DEFENCE Minister David Johnston, politicizing the role of the Military, and priority spending ?

    Would fit with the Liberal agenda to spend more on Military than Social Services.

  24. Apart from wishing for some closure for friends and relations on the fate of loved ones, I would prefer that MH370 is never found and is lost without any trace in perpetuity.

  27. BW –

    [Federal Reserve officials, looking out at mostly calm financial markets, are starting to wonder whether tranquility itself is something to worry about.

    So far this year the U.S. economy has suffered a brief economic contraction, the Fed has begun winding down a major bond-purchase program meant to spur growth, the Obama administration has clashed with Russia over its annexation of Crimea, China’s economy has slowed and the Middle East has become a cauldron of civil strife.

    The worry at the Fed is that when investors become unafraid of risk, they start taking more of it, which could lead to trouble down the road.

    “This indicates a great deal of complacency,” Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said in an interview. “When you get complacency you’re bound to be surprised at some point.”

    The Fed has given root to the sense of calm by offering investors assurances that interest rates will stay low far into the future. Its policy statement says officials expect to keep short-term rates near zero for a “considerable time” after the bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, ends later this year.

    …

    “It is a problem of their own making. They can’t have it both ways,” said Martin Barnes, chief economist at BCA Research, an investment-advisory firm. “If they want to sustain zero interest rates and push up asset prices, how can they expect to have that with no excesses and no risk taking?”

    …

    “I cannot tell you for sure when this does get unwound,” Mohamed El-Erian, former chief executive of the bond fund Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco, said in an interview of the recent period of market calm. “When it does we are going to be reminded of what happened last May and June.” ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-03/hilsenrath-confirms-fed-angry-itself-making-market-too-risk-free

  36. CTar1

    Lots more than that now. Content in speeches, interviews, presentation, workrate.
    When Bill has had enough (and refreshed thecParty) either one has the smarts. Of course, in times of the ridiculous ‘everyone must be a celebrity’ the eye candy helps the

  37. Timmy Nicholl’s has been try to sell his Budget today, he is having more trouble than Joe.

    [TEN News Queensland ‏@tennewsqld 10m
    Tonight, pensioner fury. Queensland seniors vent their anger over suffering the chunk of Tim Nicholls’ budget cuts.]

    He thought it would be easy, blame Canberra. Nobody is buying it. Expect worse polls for Newman and an Election before October.

  39. Just been listening to Ben Fordham grilling Malcolm Turnbull on 2GB.

    Fordham’s basic point: “You’re bigger than that, aren’t you?” in reference to Turnbull’s robust response to Andrew Bolt’s allegations. Fordham’s argument was, as I thought, that Turnbull should have just manned-up and taken what was coming to him from Bolt on the chin.

    Turnbull asked “Why should I? He was wrong!”Fordham’s response was a dysfunctional conjoining of both Bolt’s unimportance and hisimportance.

    Fordham basically believes Bolt should be treated with reverence.

    Turnbull disagreed, but stopped short of labelling Bolt a narcissistic pissant with a Martyr Complex.

  40. [imacca
    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/vip-jets-should-have-been-retired-last-year-coalition/story-fn59niix-1226942643246#

    DEFENCE Minister David Johnston has angrily blamed Labor for the grounding of Tony Abbott’s executive jet, saying the former government should have retired the ageing VIP fleet last year.

    See, everything really IS the ALp’s fault. :)]

    Mr Johnstone’s responsibility is to keep the planes in the air. He has had eight months in the job: yet another FAIL by Johnstone.

  42. Re BW @1440: and if Labor had replaced the jets last year they would have been blasted by Abbott and the Murdochracy for waste and mismanagement. New jets for Julia while the ‘carbon tax’ devastates the country.

  43. dave

    The US gave the Philippines a couple of superannuated cutters and the Japanese are giving them 10 new ‘multipurpose’ vessals.

    It will not help the Japanese, IMHO. I liked the bit about the chinese guy who said that the Japanese were ‘castrated’.

    IMHO, only a new kamikaze will do the job for the Japanese.

    My betting is that the Japanese have several dozen of every single bit required to put a nuclear warhead on an ICBM. And that they are numbered sequentially, Kamikaze 1, Kamikaze 2… and so on and so forth… ad M.A.D.

  45. S777
    It is just another example of Defence not being able to keep its subs under the water, its patrol craft on the water, and its planes and helicopters in the air.

  46. David Johnstone was thinking how HE will be blamed for the plane not being able to fly.

    He was interviewed today on ABC-24, and sounded quite philosophical about losing his job.

    I would say he put up a bit of a fight over the sackings in the Navy over the transgressions of Indonesian territory, and thus incurred the ire of the odious Scott Morrison.

    In true Abbott style, he is about to reward Morrison with Johnstone’s job. After all, if Abbott’s anything, he’s loyal to his colleagues.

    The planes not working would have been the equivalent of Johnstone’s last appeal being turned down by the Governor. No wonder he tried to blame someone – anyone – else.

  49. z

    [“We’re certainly of the view that between $100 and $110 a tonne is probably where the market will stabilise towards the end of this year.”]

    I call bullshit on this price range.

  50. BB
    He is already in strife. Credlin will not be impressed that once again Johnstone has made Abbott look like he can’t even get off the ground.

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