With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.
There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.
The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.
New2This must be on a different planet to think it’s end of the world.
So Dutton say no negotiation, not ever cos its needed to keep medicare and cure halitosis.
Then Abbott say he will negotiate. Captains Pick?
I think they should make up their minds once and for all: are they the best friends Medicare every had, or not?
In macroeconomic terms this budget is very mild and only marginally tighter than the last ALP budget.
In specific measures this budget is complete shit for quite a lot of people.
The co-payment may be a minor budget item, but it will be a major problem for quite a few individuals, and will lead to worse health outcomes where a GP visit is deferred due to the deterrent effect of the co-payment.
So no overall gain, lots of needless pain for an ideological end that they are not even honest enough to be up front about even now that they’ve laid the budget cards on the table.
Abbott ready to negotiate with the minor parties in the senate, isn’t that another LIE???.
Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer 58s
Now @TonyAbbottMHR trying to do a deal with the Greens to get rid of carbon tax. Liberals stand for increased taxes & no growth #auspol
mike
I thought he might leave it to Dutton, so he could say he “never”.
zoidlord
I wonder what he will offer to Christine. She won’t want his a**e!
Victoria 1646
You are DEAD WRONG
The actual $7 may not be a big deal to some, but nevertheless it’s the worst measure in the budget.
Just think what it leads to. The demise of Medicare and the onset of a US-style health system.
Here’s how it will happen. Many doctors will compensate for the extra compliance costs and the loss of a guaranteed reimbursement by switching from bulk billing to direct billing.
Bulk billing rates will be sure to fall. Why is that bad?
It’s bad because many doctors will raise their fees, as they are entitled to do in a free enterprise competitive economy. But the government will only reimburse patients the scheduled fee, so the “gap” will rise.
Once this trend sets in, will doctors raise their fees exorbitantly? Silly question. Will wasps sting and wild bears shit? Doctors act as a body – don’t foolishly rely on the figment of “competition”.
The end game will be exactly what this Coalition government wants: ever-mounting pressure on patients to become privately insured.
AKA a US-style health system.
The time to put the chewing gum on this slippery slope is right NOW.
New2This
“I don’t recall posting anything”
Yeah ….. 3 bags full.
Your comment just happened to be the same as the first one under Kate Ellis’s tweet.
lizzie
‘Leave it to Dutton’, has a nice ring to it.
[She won’t want his a**e!]
😆
dedalus
Of course the GP co payment should be stopped in its tracks, but there are so many nasties in this budget. The cutting of billions of dollars in health and education for the states is a biggie
[1636
victoria
Posted Saturday, May 31, 2014 at 5:11 pm | PERMALINK
Remember Abbott is due to make an important annoucement with Adam Goodes during AFL game tonight. It is the Indigineous round.
]
Tony Abbott is going to announce he will spend 1 week in a gunyah.
dedalus
[Just think what it leads to. The demise of Medicare and the onset of a US-style health system.]
And that is exactly what Abbott and Hockey want.
The GP Tax does nothing to reduce the debt. It will create a $20 billion medical research future fund. Abbott “legacy”. And by coincidence one of Abbott’s sponsors for bike rides is a medical research company…
I actually feel sorry for the wonderful Australian Adam Goodes, as he is likely to be booed if he appears anywhere with the Lying Friar. He doesn’t deserve this.
sprocket
Lol!
I want to know how Abbott is going to fund the $4.5 billion in tax cuts and compensation without the revenue of the Carbon Prison legislation.
sprocket
Why is Abbott appearing with Goodes?
victoria
Any measure in the budget has dual consequences, immediate and long-term.
For example, the immediate consequences to someone being deprived of the dole for 6 months are obviously more severe than a $7 co-payment that might only be applied to that same person a few times a year.
But the long-term consequences, which I pointed out in the case of the co-payment, can be entirely of a different magnitude. They can affect the whole country.
dedalus:
The co-payment itself may not necessarily cause the end of bulk billing. But the penalties forced on GPs who do bulk bill certainly will.
Anyhoo rumour is it is about the changes to the constitution
sprocket
The crowd will cheer Adam Goodes. There will be no doubt who the boos are for.
@TheKooriWoman: This is going to get very interesting very fast – Tent Embassy sets up on The Block – http://t.co/njufChENXB
Goodes will not be booed.
Abbott OTOH….
MTBW
It is the Indigenous Round of AFL, and Abbott is going to make some smarmy announcement at the MCG tonight. Goodes is in attendance for who he is and what he represents. It will be cringeworthy I fear.
Obama is to launch a climate change plan on Monday. My doesn’t this sound familiar?
[Lobby groups say guidelines set to be introduced on Monday will hurt the economy and have minimal impact on climate change]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/30/conservative-groups-obama-proposals-carbon-emissions
A prescient comment from Gottliebsen late last year –
[……But we have a majority in cabinet that believe, with a passion, that 2016 is just the time to hit the economy, that Australia needs to be taught a lesson and the labour force requires a good cleansing.
So as a deliberate policy they are determined to abandon the previous government’s deal to save the motor industry at least until 2022.
But clearly the more cavalier cabinet members can see the chance to shut down the industry and do not care about the timing or any other consequences.
…Australia has never before seen a prime minister act this way towards employment. {…..or anything else}]
For those who say people will have forgotten this budget in a few years time – thats about when the car industry closes and other job losses come in and when even more of abbott’s cuts come in.
Oh – don’t forget, the cut to welfare – particularly for the poor are permanent – yet the wealthy will get permanent tax cuts….in exchange for – a broadening and increase in the GST.
I’m guessing there will be some announcement about a referendum on ‘recognizing indigenous Australians’ in the constitution.
The first response should be ‘ok, show us what the question is and then we’ll judge it’.
If it is a purely symbolic preamble change – a la Howard but maybe better written – I think the general response should be to ignore the proposal. After first asking Jensen and Bernardi what they think.
If it is Constitutional recognition of the. First Australians (long overdue) it will be yet anoth re announcement by Abbott of a renouncement.
It’s in in his election manifesto FFS so why announce it again?
[Lobby groups say guidelines set to be introduced on Monday will hurt the economy and have minimal impact on climate change]
Hilarious. It’s the same bullshit whether it’s here or on the other side of the country.
Don’t these idiots get tired of the senseless hysteria?
[It’s in in his election manifesto FFS so why announce it again?]
Because he’s being caned in the polls and is grasping about for another stunt to try to get people looking at him in a different light?
confessions 1672
Agree. Though I never said that bulk billing would end, only that it would decline. It’s all part of a chain of cause and effect, starting with the co-payment. So we’re in agreement.
I honestly believe that the co-payment is the budget’s biggest nasty. As a long-time Labor voter, I wouldn’t vote for Labor again if it caved in on this one. Of course I’m quite confident they won’t. So my vote is safe.
Thanks sprocket …… the crowd could be very interesting!
Abbott will be releasing the unicorns onto the MCG.
it is interesting that Rugby Abbott is making the announcement at an AFL not NRL match.
Goodes may be the difference but still interesting
I Obama going to put a price on carbon emissions, I wonder what town will be wiped off the map?
mike
[I wonder what town will be wiped off the map?]
Love it!
dedalus@1684
Labor have said quite clearly and repeatedly it WILL die in a ditch to defend Medicare
MH
Yesterday China was complaining about Abbott’s Climate Policy as shown on the ABC.
dedalus
Abbott is not talking to Labor. He is talking to PUP
Mike, In America’s case, it would be what City would be wiped out.
[I honestly believe that the co-payment is the budget’s biggest nasty.]
The GP tax is nasty. Personally I think there are nastier things in this budget, but each to their own I guess.
The Budget should be shredded. It is destructive to Australia’s interests. It attacks those who can least bear the burden. And it doesn’t even address the issue that it purports to – a modest deficit (a.k.a. The ‘Budget Emergency’).
There are budgetary issues that need to be addressed in the medium to long term. Sensible measures including some savings and revenue measures need to be adopted. Superannuation tax concessions for the wealthy are low hanging fruit in that regard. We don’t need to remake the country. Certainly Abbott said nothing about that before the election.
So wave through the Deficit Levy and the excise increase – these will contribute to the bottom line. But block the rest. Most of the budget needs to be returned to the drawing board. Negotiate with Abbott or any of his minions? There’s no spoon long enough. And none can be trusted to honour any agreement.
guytaur
Yes, PUP might be the key. But Mark Latham, whose opinion I respect, told me at a recent community forum at Picton that you shouldn’t trust Palmer any further than you could throw him. I have to agree – Palmer is much too fat to pick up, let alone to throw far.
But I do believe that Palmer will do no favours for Abbott. Not because Palmer might not agree with him , but because Palmer wants PUP to be the fourth force in Australian politics – and eventually the third force. Ambition is a great motivator.
Logically, coming from a low voter base, he has to pursue a populist agenda, however kooky. In fact, when you have 3% of the vote and are aiming for 6, the kookier the better.
It’s possibe he’s a total fake. But I doubt he’s a dill. If he rants and raves against almost everything in the budget, he’s hardly likely to vote in favour of it.
Refinement??
[Prime Minister Tony Abbott has indicated he is open to the “refinement” of the GP co-payment for medical visits – a key component of his Government’s budget measures.]
[In the year to June 2013, according to the IPA’s annual report, it clocked up 878 mentions in print and online. Its staff had 164 articles published in national media. They managed 540 radio appearances and mentions, and 210 appearances and mentions on TV. No prizes for guessing in which publications most of the print media references were to be found. Did we mention Rupert Murdoch was a long-time IPA director?
The surprise is that the national public broadcaster, the ABC, which the IPA would break up and sell off, features heavily. One count, by the left-leaning Independent Australia, clocked 39 appearances by IPA staff in the year 2011-12 on just one ABC TV program, The Drum. That’s almost as many Drum appearances as the combined total of all other think tanks, left, right and centre.]
The IPA is a wart on the Australian body politic.
Its tentacles [yep I’m mixing metaphors] reach everywhere, even Human Rights.
There is no excuse for the ABC to have IPA propagandists on any programmes at all let alone dominating in certain spheres.
About time every guest, other than these right-wing extremists, when appearing on the same programme point blank to the edge of rudeness asked the ABC what the hell is the IPA doing on the programme and after the inevitable answer of ‘balance’ attacked that stupid concept [the seesaw is already weighed down on the right] and repeated that we need expertise and informed opinion not Murdoch COALition extremist ignorance and propaganda.
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/05/31/abbotts-faceless-men-the-ipa/1401458400#.U4mTOk2KCUm
This is advertising a book called “Climate Change – the facts”, with an intro by John Roskam. At least he doesn’t pretend he’s a scientist. The writers are all your favourite deniers!!
[Ketan Joshi
monckton’s basically my favouritest scientist ever pic.twitter.com/xfxqYofXLg ]
Dee:
It’s obvious the govt are trying to soften their budget. First the promise of tax cuts, now the tweaking at the margins. Will it work? Time will tell.