BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

With nothing much doing in polldom this week, the momentum to Labor established by the post-budget results carries over into this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading.

With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.

There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.

The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,869 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor”

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  1. I had a lovely day in Trier yesterday, and I did visit Karl Marx’s birthplace, but because I spent so much time looking at the Roman ruins, by the time I got to the Marx House it was nearly 6pm and the Marx-Engels museum was about to close.

    Trier is the oldest city in Germany, founded in 15 BC as Augusta Trevirorum. The Basilica of Constantine was built in 310 AD, and is apparently the largest surviving intact Roman building.

  2. [1586
    confessions

    briefly:

    I’m still not sharing your confidence that the govt won’t be returned in 2 years time.]

    I am willing to concede I could easily be wrong. (I thought Keating could win again in ’96 too!) But there is nothing about this Government that seems even slightly savvy. They are on the road to electoral damnation.

    They are telling the majority of voters that their lifetime incomes are going to be trashed. This is now Liberal policy: the destruction of hope, reward, betterment, ease and confidence. They stand for an endless uphill grind, for poverty and regret. People will not accept this. Not at all.

    We have to remember the Liberals have form on living standards. The subtext is..”Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal Government.” This was the meaning that ran through Work Choices. They are running the same message again and it will have the same result. Last time the Liberals attacked pay rates. Now they are attacking the social wage.

    Their form is the best guide to their future actions…and The Liberals form is they do not think working people should have a reasonable standard of living or that social mobility and security are important. They really do not understand how much these things mean to most people.

    Short of miracle, they’re knackered.

  3. AA 1597 re cuts/losses for self-funded retirees

    __________

    I know a fairly wealthy couple.who had acess to the Card and those other beneeits you cite..asnd has just learned that they have lost them all

    They are very angry..and I was amused by that as they were fairly keen on Abbott and Co ,and must have voted for them…but now ..???

  4. Dee

    I had a look at the interactive map and the mapping for Australian threatened birds did not seem to make a whole lot of sense to me.

  6. I cite Fran Barlow for overuse and abuse of the word “deeply”.

    Everything is “deeply”, “absolutely”, “gobsmackingly”, “absolutely” and “inutterably” nowadays.

    It’s as bad as Jacqui Maley’s “Um” between every phrase she utters. Meaningless.

    Fran, can’t you think of a better description to describe your distaste for NRL radio commentary than “deeply {whateveritwas}” ?

  9. Going back to Mark kenny’s report today.
    How can we take Abbott seriously? The narrative and the mantra is that we have a debt and deficit disaster and a budget emergency. We need to repair the budget. And then we have this drivel!

    [Tony Abbott is planning to announce a generous package of income tax cuts in the lead-up to the 2016 election in a bid to offset the pain of his austerity budget and win back disaffected voters.
    But any personal savings would not show up in pay packets until after the election, unless the economy surprises everyone by wiping away a forecast $10.6 billion deficit when the election falls due in the third quarter of 2016.
    The prospect of tax sweeteners offers a potential lifeline for marginal seat MPs in the Coalition party room, following a voter backlash to a budget which has made life harder for many households.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/prepoll-tax-cuts-planned-to-woo-disaffected-voters-20140530-399v1.html#ixzz33GxFDtv3

  10. v

    If your main target audience is terrified back benchers, all is not well.

    That looks like a panic reaction, possibly to maintain Abbott as prime minister.

  11. I do hope that if Abbott “shows his kind side” and alters a few of the obvious rorts (like the Medicare co-payment) his fans won’t forgive him and fly back home. Many of the mean cuts to the other social services will stay and they are far more harmful to the poor/disabled/unemployed etc.

  13. I do hope that Abbott is not going to destroy the $20 billion health research fund before it even gets off the ground.

  14. [1605
    Dee
    Posted Saturday, May 31, 2014 at 4:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Just heard a grab!

    Rabbott flags changes to Medicare co-payment.
    ]

    He’s lying.

  16. Does anyone know if you have to pay for a place in the seminary, or for a Rhodes scholarship?

    I know Abbott did not pay a brass razoo for his Sydney Uni degree (I was there at the same time, and paid nothing other than Sports Union). So it’s possible he got a free ride throughout.

  17. Dee

    If you go to the interactive map and click on threatened birds it brings up a weird shaped area in Western Australia coloured brownish which is supposed to be the area which has the highest concentration of threatened birds in Australia.

    (a) the boundaries of the brown coloured shapes partly conform to the wheatbelt but partly conform to no natural province or area of ecoystem of which I am aware. The arcs of the shape look very unnatural.

    (b) I would have guessed that there are other areas in Australia than the brown areas in Western Australia which have higher densities of threatened species.

  19. [Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett says he does not support a push from some of his MPs to have rebel backbencher Rob Johnson banned from the Liberal Party room.]

    LOL. The Emperor suspects that an unplugged Johnson might be more of an annoyance than he is now.

  20. poroti

    While it is well known that Abbott is lying when his lips are moving, he is also thinking lies when his lips are not moving.

    The complete package.

  22. sprocket_@1616

    Does anyone know if you have to pay for a place in the seminary, or for a Rhodes scholarship?

    I know Abbott did not pay a brass razoo for his Sydney Uni degree (I was there at the same time, and paid nothing other than Sports Union). So it’s possible he got a free ride throughout.

    Abbott and Hockey would both have gotten their degrees for nothing.

    And, as Abbott has demonstrated, their kids still can.

    Just not your kids.

  27. victoria
    Your 1609 is how I see it.

    There is only short term gain – which might be useful during an election campaign, but not now – in trying to convince people Abbott will jump one way, and a long term loss if Labor gets their predictions wrong and cede ground before time.

    On the other hand there is plenty to gain in both the short and long term in using it to attack the Coalition’s debt and deficit narrative.

    In the future if the cuts don’t materialise Labor gets in a second shot on Abbott’s (un)trustworthiness anyway. If the cuts do materialise, Labor still have the original argument about what an inconsistent shambles the Coalition’s policies are.

  29. If Labor predict something about the Coalition, for the most part it’s the Coalition who get to choose – at their convenience – whether that prediction turns out correct or not.

  30. Boerwar

    The UK’s “Tony” , Mr Blah, is a bit like our Tony. An article about the Chilcot enquiry noted that ” In other words, what Mr Blair thinks is true is, by definition, true.” . Whatever Tony says is the truth because Tony said it.

    [The truth will out about Blair and Iraq, whatever the Chilcot Inquiry ends up telling us ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/the-truth-will-out-about-blair-and-iraq-whatever-the-chilcot-inquiry-ends-up-telling-us-9462305.html

  34. New2This

    “I count 3 people”

    So this proves that you can scroll through the Twitter conversation, cut something you like, and paste here unacknowledged ……… and of course that your reading skills extend to 4 word sentences.

    That the relevant photo is close up and small framed, catching only a small part of the scene is of course beyond the point.

  36. Remember Abbott is due to make an important annoucement with Adam Goodes during AFL game tonight. It is the Indigineous round.

  38. New

    Abbott lies. We know this. Now so do voters.

    The budget cruelty and unnecessary pain is out for all to see. Ideology writ large as Abbott attacks the Australian way of life.

    Voters see that reality the polls show that and I expect the next ones to confirm it.

    Abbott is the anchor on the Liberal party. If they are not careful he will become their wrecking ball not an anchor

  42. he is open to ‘refining’ GP co-payment

    Abbott doesn’t get to pick and choose which bits of the budget he will have to negotiate on.

    It’s very quaint that he thinks he can graciously put co-payments ‘on the table’. Everything is ‘on the table’ Tones, and you know it.

  43. BB

    [Fran, can’t you think of a better description to describe your distaste for NRL radio commentary than “deeply {whateveritwas}” ?]

    “Deeply unpleasant” seems fairly straightforward to me. I would not have uttered “inutterably” (wrong prefix) and I never use “gobsmacking” (too coarse) though I sometimes use profound because that’s also deep.

    I could have found other terms with which to specify my sentiment towards NRL commentary and usages but I doubt they would have drawn your approval.

  45. Guytaur

    [The Liberals can undo the budget however they cannot unrelease it. Unless they have a time nachine]

    if they had a tine machine they could wind up forked, and then Showsy would be cheering. 😉

  46. The GP co payment is probably the least offensive measure in the budget. There are so many odious changes that the GP co payment is tame by comparison

  47. 1601 Psephos
    When I visited Trier I made sure I went to Uncle Karl’s before the Roman ruins and the Basilica. They are all fabulous to visit.
    Karl’s place was a good reminder that while he is a whipping boy for the IPA goons etc, he did have a genius which provided insights which still cut through today. The whole dialectical view of history is being borne out by the way people have suddenly been made politically aware to resist the destruction of the safe society they assumed they belong to.

    I agree absolutely with an earlier poster who opined that the links between LNP and IPA need to be steadily kept in the public eye, and even more so some attention to the funding of the IPA. Karl would loved to have seen the corporate crooks buying up opinion to install puppet governments with the apparent consent of the people.

  49. [the GP co-payment for medical visits – a key component of his Government’s budget measures.]

    This is pure bulldust, making very little difference to the bottom line.

  50. “This is pure bulldust, making very little difference to the bottom line.”

    I thought it was the end of the world….

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