BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

With nothing much doing in polldom this week, the momentum to Labor established by the post-budget results carries over into this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading.

With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.

There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.

The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,869 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor”

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  1. Prince Harry “The next time I come back you will be struggling to get rid of me I am sure.”

    At $75K a day not likely. But that is assuming we have a new government with a bit of sense.

  2. BB

    [BW,

    My guess is that a ‘do-gooder’ or a ‘PC’ person is just being a wishy-washy ‘Niggerlover’.

    You don’t really like it when someone challenges you, do you?

    Your whole tone is plonking and patronizing, as if only you have all the answers.]

    Well, that gets another set of your pleasantries out of the way.

    [Once again you have used words I did not. You have likened anyone who uses words you disapprove of as KKK candidates, from the mines or whatever of Katharine, who would rather burn crosses and lynch “niggers” than discuss issues.]

    This is actually not all about you or all about what you say.

    It is a bit hard for me to know what is going on here in terms of our discussion.

    So, I will focus on what I believe to be the central issue. I am not sure of where you stand here but from where I stand, ‘darky’ = ‘nigger’ = ‘coon’ in the sense that ALL are racist terms, used by racists. They have at their core a notion that whites are superior and that blacks are inferior human beings. In the context of ‘Gone with the Wind’, they are used not just to justify slavery but to sentimentalise it. I am not sure, but you seem to have a view that maybe the term ‘old darkey’ is not essentially racist, of if it is racist it is maybe not all that racist. I don’t get that.

    [Most of your example were of extreme scenarios, ill-befitting a simple piece of inappropriate football commentary. But you see thin ends of wedges everywhere, don’t you?]

    What seems to be the substantive issues here? From my perspective two things. The first is that the impact of each and every act of racism is cumulative. The second is, if we accept this racist incident, where might it end? Perhaps, it might just disappear of its own accord? In my experience that is not how racism is stopped – all by itself. In my experience you stop racism by stopping it. But perhaps I am being a pompous plonking PC do-gooder if that is what I really think?

    In terms of the discussion I believe that the central issue here is about whether creating an anology using a racist term and a racially stereotyped incident can be justified because the term appeared in a racist movie or racist book which you just happen randomly to be using to source your analogy.

    The other substantive issue is in relation to impact. You appear to believe that what happens in the commentary box stays in the commentary box.

    I believe that it goes to thousands of listeners and, thence, back to many ‘darkey’ players and their families. These will, IMHO, duly have noted what steps management took. They will not be too fussed that it was an analogy lifted from ‘Gone with the Wind’ and therefore in some way not really using a racist term or racist stereotypes.

    Let’s just assume that the whole thing is acceptable, as you seem to be arguing. (I am not sure about that).

    It follows that anything you can find in literature can be used in the same way. And yes, I chased the approach down some nasty ratholes. Not pleasant at all, really.

    If, OTOH, you are arguing that there ought to be some sort of limits to the analogy making involving lifting racist terms and racist stereotypes from the literature, you might have in mind some sort of threshold test for when this sort of stuff is good, when acceptable, and when unacceptable.

    I sort of get the feeling that, in your view, ‘old darkey’ is sort of not so bad, but that ‘nigger’ would never be acceptable. It is hard to know.

    [Today “old darkies”, tomorrow, if this isn’t nipped in the bud, ABC footy commentators will be talking about “the nigger in the front row”, “the coon at outside center” and about how we should have a few KKK-style lynchings to improve the flow of play.]

    Not quite. If today using an analogy to ‘old darkeys’ acting and talking in a racially stereotyped way is OK because it happened in ‘Gone with the Wind’, then tomorrow, who knows what they will be lifting some snippet from the literature. You don’t. Neither do I.

    In my view it is well-worth knocking this particular wedge out straight away so that all commentators know that racist analogy gambits are out. Full stop.

    [You’re blowing this all out of proportion.]

    I suggest that your response to what management did was out of all proportion. Our judgements differ.

    [My thoughts on the matter are that the use of the word “old darkie” – in the context in which it was used (i.e. NOT talking about an Aboriginal player, or the state of race relations in Australia, but merely a recollection of a scene in an old movie from 1939) merits at the most extreme simple disciplinary action, with perhaps an on-air apology, not the suspension of two otherwise intelligent and insightful top commentators from the air on an indefinite basis.]

    Why should they be disciplined if they have done nothing wrong? And if in your view they have done something wrong – apart from irritating a few dogooders – what, in your opinion would that be?

    [I don’t believe that the use of the term “old darkie” is evidence of an inner racial hatred that should be expunged from the airwaves.]

    ‘Using racist terms and/or using racist stereotypes does not, of course, require ‘an inner racial hatred’ to be racism.

  3. Chance of a fog.

    First flight out if you really want to get there.

    The 8o’clock flight if you had rather not get to where you were supposed to be going.

  4. Brefily @ 1503:

    The Libs have always lacked the courage. Witness Dolly Downer’s kind request for JWH to stand down. Flatly refused, and the spineless twerp Costello just sat there like a jellyfish. Quite unlike PJK’s attempt to oust Bob, which failed. He went to the backbench and challenged agein. Guts.

  5. The Whitehouse business is just the entree . Another booster article today in the GG about how simply fabulous the Direct Instruction teaching method is reminds us of the main course.

    Rupes and his papers have been pushing this for several years. How long before this starts getting rolled out by the LNP ? What luck Murdoch companies will happen to be just the people to help.

    [Elite city students show Noel Pearson’s direct approach a winning formula

    ASIAN students who want to blitz fiercely competitive final-year exams or gain entry to selective schools across Australia are being tutored using the controversial Direct Instruction method, with knockout results.

    The educational boost being achieved by kids from well-to-do city families reflects that seen by the Cape York Aboriginal Australian Academy, which already uses the method for its disadvantaged indigenous students.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/elite-city-students-show-noel-pearsons-direct-approach-a-winning-formula/story-fn59nlz9-1226937989869#

    .

    [Keep Fox News out of the classroom! Rupert Murdoch,

    …..media mogul Rupert Murdoch said after acquiring education company Amplify (previously known as Wireless Generations), “When it comes to K-12 education, we see a $500 billion sector in the U.S. alone that is waiting desperately to be transformed by big breakthroughs that extend the reach of great teaching.”]
    http://www.salon.com/2013/12/16/keep_fox_news_out_of_the_classroom_rupert_murdoch_common_core_and_the_dangerous_rise_of_for_profit_public_education/

  6. Adam Bandt ‏@AdamBandt 2m

    We’re a bunch of slackers! Aust spends far less helping our unemployed than other countries do, says @crikey_news pic.twitter.com/fhgU2FDhZL

  7. BB

    [We’re all racists of some kind or other. ]

    Please don’t

    a) make unsupported sweeping generalisations
    b) include people in them who attitudes you can’t know well enough to declare on

    I am no kind of racist. I don’t condone racism in others I meet. I reflect carefully on my dealings with others so as to avoid perception of disrespect based on ostensible ethnicity. Most people I know manage to meet at least the last of these standards (avoiding perceived disrespect on the basis of ostensible ethnicity) most of the time.

  8. Mike

    Prince Harry is single and available.

    Wouldn’t mind betting Rabbott has extended invites to the bachelor prince….if you get the drift. 😉

  9. Zoidlord

    [We’re a bunch of slackers! Aust spends far less helping our unemployed than other countries do, says @crikey_news pic.twitter.com/fhgU2FDhZL]

    Adam has been careless quoting that table. While in per capita GDP terms Australia spends much less than does Spain on supporting the unemployed, Spain has a far more unemployed per capita than do we. A better measure of comparative generosity to the unemployed would compare amounts spent per unemployed person.

  10. Sadly, typical of old dinosaurs!

    [It is why he believes Lachlan shouldn’t be the anointed one to lead News Corporation and 21st Century Fox. Instead, he says, it should be Murdoch’s daughter, Elisabeth.]

    [“She’s the smartest of all them. I’ve tried to tell him,” Cowley says. “He got angry with me. He said, ‘Oh you’re saying it just because she’s a woman’.]

    [“I said, ‘I am not! It’s her brain!’ Anyway, it didn’t do any good. He’s got an old-fashioned view [of women]. And apart from that, he thinks he’s going to live forever.”]

  11. GG, I’m at work this morning. (I’ll be here all weekend). Among the tasks, one required a technician to attend to re-set a machine and check its calibration. He’s a fitter, fifty-ish, works on contract around town. He also does a bit of importing on the side and uses his connections to add to his income. His son is a registered plumber and his daughter has just recently qualified as a nurse. His wife was a nurse in her youth.

    I asked him what he thought of the budget. He said “Not much!” Then he launched. He really needed no further prompting and told me how his daughter had been recruited to her first job nursing and was ready to start this month. But the day after the budget, she got the call to say the job had been cancelled. Their family is furious – totally outraged. They are also well aware that Abbott’s education changes would mean her HELP loan will go up.

    Then he started about the change to the retirement age. This man has a very painful arthritic disorder that occasionally keeps him from working and requires a lot of medical attention. It’s serious, chronic and disabling. Though he keeps working, for him the idea that he may not be able to access his super or get a pension until he reaches 70 is completely demoralising. He was foaming at the mouth about that.

    Then he said something to the effect,”After all the promises he made, after everything he said, to have them all broken in one night is just unbelievable.” The he declared the Liberals were finished as far as he’s concerned. He said “I know a lot of people were just sick of Labor, but the Liberals have done is now as far as I’m concerned.”

    I’ve known this bloke for 25 years. He’s not a whinger. He’s a very hard-working, smart bloke with high motivation and a lot of independence. I’ve never heard him utter a word in anger before but there was venom on his tongue today.

    It’s a fair bet that he, his family and their partners will all vote against the Liberals next time.

  12. Fran wrote:

    [BB

    We’re all racists of some kind or other.

    Please don’t

    a) make unsupported sweeping generalisations
    b) include people in them who attitudes you can’t know well enough to declare on]

    Well, I DID ask for someone who was without sin to declare themselves.

    And who better than Fran?

    As for BW’s bit above… well let’s just say I’m checking out of this discussion. Not because I’ve changed my mind, or am compelled by the logc of BW and the racism-free soul Fran, but because I’m tired of it.

    I’ve said what I wanted to say and am happy to concede that others have different views to mine, and are just as unlikely to change theirs as I am.

    ********************

    In another possibility for disagreement, I love how the Newcastle Paedophilia Inquiry managed to condemn BOTH the Catholic Church AND the whistle-blower, based on the whistle-blower’s tireless efforts to have the matter investigated, but failed to condemn the police for any lacklustre performance of their duties at all.

    We have years of cover-ups at princely levels of the Church, protected sexual predators, many man-years of investigations and finally an exasperated insider going public… and it’s all… HIS fault!

    Beautiful result. Elegant and convenient.

  13. briefly:

    The local numpty papers here have been scathing in their editorials and cartoons esp since the budget. Normally known for being kind to the coalition, not anymore.

  14. I posted an article about this yesterday.
    It blew me away!

    [We have years of cover-ups at princely levels of the Church, protected sexual predators, many man-years of investigations and finally an exasperated insider going public… and it’s all… HIS fault!]

  15. BB @1566

    Is it possible that the Newcastle Paedophilia Inquiry terms of reference were too narrow…
    No one seems to mention Franca Arena these days, was she mad & vindictive or just chasing the wrong people?

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s4016185.htm…..

    “Large parts of Peter Fox’s evidence that he attempted to give to this inquiry were prevented from being given because of the narrow terms of reference. Many of the dots that Peter Fox wanted the commission to join could not be joined because of those limited terms of reference. And the Federal Royal Commission is really the only avenue to get that full, that balanced understanding of the actions of the police and the Church”

  16. BB

    [I’ve said what I wanted to say and am happy to concede that others have different views to mine, and are just as unlikely to change theirs as I am.]

    I am happy to concede the same, though I am not going to concede that someone whose implies I’m some kind of racist without a shred of evidence has a view that amounts to more than indolent and self-serving handwaving.

    I don’t listen to football, mostly because I find the noise of their voices deeply unpleasant, rather than to avoid racist or even ignorantly populist hackneyed cliched blokey banter but I’m not surprised, given their work environment, that they have been caught metaphorically urinating in public. They seem pretty unreconstructed Daily Telegraph/1950s. Doubtless they are uncomfortable with the usages of the new millennium. Unlike Roy and HG or maybe that guy who does the lamb ads, they don’t know that they are laughable.

  17. [ We have years of cover-ups at princely levels of the Church, protected sexual predators, many man-years of investigations and finally an exasperated insider going public… and it’s all… HIS fault! ]

    What did you (or he for that matter) expect?. The church has been covering up for decades. The police may not have been actively covering up anything, but they have known about this (since there have been many who have had the courage to complain to them) – but they have been unwilling to do the necessary investigation.

    The best interpretation you can put on this is that they probably knew they would never get a conviction. The worst is criminal collusion. But there is probably not really a lot of evidence either way.

    Naturally the police are going to do their damnedest make it all the fault of someone else – and the easiest person to blame is the whistle blower. At least it is one step up from blaming the victims.

    In my book, he’s still a hero. And at least we may finally end up with some criminal convictions.

  18. [First the bad news. Humans are driving species to extinction at around 1000 times the natural rate, at the top of the range of an earlier estimate. We also don’t know how many species we can afford to lose.

    Now the good news. Armed with your smartphone, you can help conservationists save them.

    Interactive map:: Where the threatened wild things are

    The new estimate of the global rate of extinction comes from Stuart Pimm of Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, and colleagues. It updates a calculation Pimm’s team released in 1995, that human activities were driving species out of existence at 100 to 1000 times the background rate (Science, doi.org/fq2sfs).

    It turns out that Pimm’s earlier calculations both underestimated the rate at which species are now disappearing, and overestimated the background rate over the past 10 to 20 million years.]
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25645-we-are-killing-species-at-1000-times-the-natural-rate.html#.U4lkQfm1b2A

  19. [1568
    confessions

    briefly:

    The local numpty papers here have been scathing in their editorials and cartoons esp since the budget. Normally known for being kind to the coalition, not anymore.]

    The usual reaction to change is resistance, which stems from anxiety or uncertainty, even fear. In this instance the LNP have done nothing to allay any fears. Rather, they have amplified them. They really have just utterly misread the effects of their changes on voters. Far from representing safety and confidence, the Government now represent menace, confusion, betrayal and bewilderment.

    They are cactus.

  20. [1509
    dave

    The budget is so deeply unpopular that any party that supports any part of it will be tainted by its odium.

    The LNP have completely miscalculated.

    As a result the tories will be left whining that they cannot get most of their nasty stuff through the Senate – with their opponents pointing at the even nastier things they want to bring in.]

    Of course, every time the LNP point to the Senate and whinge about being obstructed, the voting public will be thinking “Thank goodness for the Senate.” The LNP will effectively be encouraging voters to support Labor, the Greens, PUP and anyone else that is willing to oppose the budget.

  21. A good read on the way.

    [Writing that Douglas Adams cut from his Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy novels is to be published for the first time after being found in his archive.

    He wrote 16 chapters for an early version of Life, The Universe and Everything – but abandoned it, filed the typescript away and started again.

    It has now been found, along with other unseen passages, in an archive of his work at the University of Cambridge.]

    http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-27632566

  22. Pensioner in the Age Green Guide:

    [When I saw Joe Hockey on Q&A … as a pensioner who had great doubts about the Budget, I now understand far more about it than I did from any other source. Full marks to our Treasurer for handling some very pointed questioning from the audience and not losing his cool.]

    Don’t get too confident, peeps.

  23. Lizzie

    It is difficult to gauge.

    There will be traditional tory voters who want to believe what they are hearing in preference to reality.

  24. @Greensborough Growler 1514 Good comments. This budget is likely forgotten about in 2 years time. Hopefully by the time the next election rolls around the talking points are firmly focused back on Labor strong points health, education, and workplace relations etc not terrorism or war or some shit. Bill Shorten i think (hope) will be pretty careful on what promises he makes. Be interesting to see what the libs will campaign on. Any ideas?

  25. Again on the promise of tax cuts. My fear is that Labor are going to run with “how can you trust this government on this promise”. This gets two things wrong. One is that it suggests that perhaps tax cuts are things that the government and public should want. Two is that it leaves the initiative with the Coalition, they are left with the option to prove Labor right or wrong – whichever is most politically convenient – in the future.

    Far better to point out the similarities to the medical research fund, Abbott’s PPL and other policies/commitments that contradict the “budget in crisis” spiel.

  26. cobberdig

    [This budget is likely forgotten about in 2 years time. ]

    Seriously? If you’re under 30 and lose your job – or even think you might lose your job – you’re not going to forget.

    If you’re a student whose stuck with a lifetime of debt, you’re not going to forget.

    If you’re a public servant who lost their job, a scientist who’s seen their profession undervalued and their employment prospects trashed…you’re not going to forget.

    As Poss on Pollytics noted years ago, the Liberal support base is literally dying out. These measures alienate – potentially in the very long term – the very generation the Liberals need support from in the future.

  27. zoidlord @ 1581
    [Wait till the pensioner starts loosing money as a result.]

    What’s the betting Abbott resurrects the Howard strategy of slinging them $500 just ahead of the next election and they’ll nearly all vote for him again.

    The best friend the pensioners have had in a very long time was Labor. Under both Rudd and Gillard they received much more, about $150/fortnight for a single pensioner by my calculation, than if the Howard model had continued. But they still overwhelmingly voted for Abbott anyway.

  28. DN

    again, the people who will benefit from tax cuts aren’t the ones alienated by this budget.

    The Liberals look like delivering more to the group least impacted on by this Budget. This is not the cohort they need to win over.

  29. [ cobberdig

    Posted Saturday, May 31, 2014 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    @Greensborough Growler 1514 Good comments. This budget is likely forgotten about in 2 years time. Hopefully by the time the next election rolls around the talking points are firmly focused back on Labor strong points health, education, and workplace relations etc not terrorism or war or some shit. Bill Shorten i think (hope) will be pretty careful on what promises he makes. Be interesting to see what the libs will campaign on. Any ideas?
    ]

    ————————————————–

    Return of Malcolm Frazers “Fist Full Of Dollars” – and people will believe it and be sucked in AGAIN ( – forgetting how it worked in reality – Now you see it, now you dont …. )

  30. @victoria/1588

    That’s what they were going to do anyway, outsource the bloody lot, Newman threaten to do it if you remember correctly.

    @slothy/1590

    Labor can do advertising blitz on so called tough budget, then another broken promise, buy giving them more money.

  31. [1580
    lizzie

    Pensioner in the Age Green Guide:

    When I saw Joe Hockey on Q&A … as a pensioner who had great doubts about the Budget, I now understand far more about it than I did from any other source. Full marks to our Treasurer for handling some very pointed questioning from the audience and not losing his cool.

    Don’t get too confident, peeps.]

    It sounds like apologist rubbish to me – LNP-sponsored propaganda.

  32. Of course, I expect the media will take the attitude that they didn’t scrutinise the last Opposition well enough in the lead up to the election so they’d better make sure that they scrutinise THIS one properly…

  33. zoom @ 1591
    Sure, but that’s in the future. And if and when the Coalition do whatever they do, Labor can benefit then, assuming they haven’t already given the Coalition a free kick by making the wrong argument now.

    This is a mistake Labor makes time and time again.

  34. People have been lead to believe that the change to age pension to 70yr is the only change. You don’t have to wait that long to see the cruelness of this Abbott LIBERAL Govt

    Seniors Health Card.

    From January 1, 2015, the income test governing new access to this card will include the deemed income from superannuation fund income. Since 2007, this has not been subject to personal income tax after the age of 60. As with all past changes to entitlements, existing card holders will retain their card unless they are precluded for some other reason.

    The Dependent Spouse Tax Offset, which until now was available to people with dependent spouses of age 60 or older, will be discontinued, a decision which will save the Government $320 million.

    The Mature Age Worker Tax Offset will also be abolished

    Also after January 1, 2015, future self-funded retirees will not have access to the benefits of the card and, along with other non-pensioners, they will be subject to the new $7 per visit co-payment for the first 10 visits to their doctor. Life for future retirees will be much tougher, as a result of the phased-in increase in the age pension access age and tightened rules for access to health care benefits.

    Government has also abolished the Pensioner Education Supplement

    Government will cease paying its current Aged Care Payroll Tax Supplement

    indexation of the age pension will, from 2017, be linked to the consumer price index, rather than to average male wages, a decision that will save the Government $449 million over four years

  35. [When I saw Joe Hockey on Q&A … as a pensioner who had great doubts about the Budget, I now understand far more about it than I did from any other source. Full marks to our Treasurer for handling some very pointed questioning from the audience and not losing his cool.]
    Reminds me of what Lisa Simpson was made to say.

    [“Mr. Burns, Your Campaign Seems To Have the Momentum of a Runaway Freight Train. Why Are You So Popular?”]

  36. AussieAchmed

    Lordy what a “brave” move. For years even the slightest hint of doing anything that affected self funded retirees would result in talkback radio switchboards exploding.

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