BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

With nothing much doing in polldom this week, the momentum to Labor established by the post-budget results carries over into this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading.

With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.

There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.

The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,869 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 30 of 38
1 … 29 30 31 … 38

  2. A couple of things….firstly the budget….

    I am amused that the LNP MPs are complaining the either “the budget has not been sold well” or “when people come to really understand it, they will know it is good for the country”.

    I seem to remember another party in government said much the same thing not so long ago.

    The possibility that what Abbott is trying to sell is a 1930s Ford with no wheels or engine seems to be thinking beyond Coalition MPs at the moment.

    Secondly, harking back to the days of PMJG and PMKR – the sour response from the conservatives and their media shouters, “What, another overseas trip when he/she should be here fixing up our problems?”.

    A different set of rules apparently for Abbott. Why does he need to go to France?

  3. This talk of future tax cuts is not new, I’m sure I’ve heard it publicly stated before and not by some un-named figure, though I can’t remember who said it – probably Hockey or Abbott.

    In any case, Labor should point out that money that is going to future tax cuts is not money going to fix a budget that’s supposedly in crisis. It’s similar to the medical research fund, they’re playing up a crisis to attack those who can least afford it, yet a lot of the money is just being shifted around.

  5. A possible flow on effect from the budget.

    Attended a local theatre performance (1812 Theatre Co in Ferntree Gully) to see the comedy Beyond Therapy. One of my friends who has attended the 1812 theatre for the last 20+ years said it was the worst attendance for a Friday night that she can rememeber. Furthermore the local Indian restaurant which does a roaring trade with the theatre crowd pre-show was literally empty.

    This theatre has a loyal following and is v popular with the seniors etc.

    We commented about this and the front of house also noted that the poor attendance could be a sign of people starting to close their wallets and purses wrt discretionary spending.

  7. “@ABCNews24: Abbott: We know that in their hearts a lot of Labor people think this is good policy #co-payment #Medicare #auspol”

  9. [ Steven Grant Haby
    Posted Saturday, May 31, 2014 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    A possible flow on effect from the budget.

    One of my friends who has attended the 1812 theatre for the last 20+ years said it was the worst attendance for a Friday night that she can rememeber. Furthermore the local Indian restaurant which does a roaring trade with the theatre crowd pre-show was literally empty. ]

    August profit reporting of companies listed on the ASX will be interesting to see as will the rollout of various other economic data.

  10. Well, Peter Dutton, your Medical Research Fund won’t ptovide the money “going forward” (stupid expression. Why can’t they say “in the future”?)

  13. BW,

    [BB

    You just don’t get it, do you? Lifetimes of putting up with racist crap damages people.

    The impact of racism is cumulative. Racism towards someone else in a different place affects you. And, just like inferred pressure, or scoreboard pressure, racism can continue to impact people even when there is no active and present racism and the racists are asleep.

    Some racism is institutional. Some of it is hate-filled. Some of it involves deliberate and targetted verbal and physical abuse. And some of it is just plain ignorant or careless. Some of it involves one-to-one, and some of it involves a commentator possibly offending thousands of his listeners.
    …
    Not every live football commentator reckons, if there is a reference to ‘darky’ or, for that matter, ‘coons’ or ‘niggers’ in the literature, that it is not racist to use that sort of stuff as source material for football commentary.]

    Your entire post relies on the presumption that the comment was racist. I don’t believe it was. It was inappropriate at best, in my view.

    You use a statement like mine above to prove that I have been so battered by institutional racism that I can’t tell the difference anymore; that I am racist as well, just one breath away from calling people with dark skins “coons” and “niggers”.

    No-one mentioned “coons” or “niggers”, only you did. “Straw men” would be a better word for them. You keep bringing up things the commentator did NOT say.

    I’m sure we’ll never agree, but for the record, my position is that he should have known the reference was inappropriate, if only because the PC’ers and do-gooders would be swarming out of the woodwork to condemn him for things he did not say at all, and which – if he had said them – might have made their case.

    But he didn’t say those words, and to my mind the case against him is diminished.

  14. [Wayne Swan
    Memo Abbott: Gov Bank of Eng says”just as any revolution eats its children…unchecked market fundamentalism can devour…capitalism itself”]

  15. lizzie

    [ Peter Dutton, your Medical Research Fund won’t ptovide the money “going forward”]

    All will be fine as we have $150m worth of school chaplains ….

  17. Bill Shorten needs to do a better job, he needs to point out that the Medical Research Fund is a fraud, because the money isn’t going back into Health Funding.

    And the $150 million Chaplains not funding Education.

  18. guytaur

    [“@ABCNews24: Abbott: We know that in their hearts a lot of Labor people think this is good policy #co-payment #Medicare #auspol”]

    That made me laugh – Abbott is a acting on messages in his head.

  19. More Welfare Changes coming:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/new-wave-of-reform-for-welfare/story-fn59niix-1226937982151

    “Inflaming the dispute over tough budget cuts, Tony Abbott and senior ministers are canvassing further ways to cancel or reduce payments as they express frustration at the number of benefits. The government is aiming to sharpen the political row over welfare by releasing confidential advice within weeks to highlight the complexity of the system and the looming burden on taxpayers.”

    This is pathetic, is there no way to get rid of this mob out?

  20. guytaur@1462

    @CliveFPalmer: Couldn’t agree more with @rupertmurdoch’s long time right hand man Ken Cowley that @australian is “PATHETIC” https://t.co/xYODZ5O5Qc #AUSPOL

    He doesn’t think much of Alan Joyce either –

    [ Cowley says “Alan Joyce is a strange man. I’ve had one of his top people come to see me. It was scary. He’s worried where Qantas is going or not going.

    “It’ll be interesting to see where Alan Joyce finishes up. I think he’s a misfit.”
    ]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/arts_saleroom/ken_cowley_judgment_day_9dMVtlepXHLDIYS8uzsHAN

  21. [ “@ABCNews24: Abbott: We know that in their hearts a lot of Labor people think this is good policy #co-payment #Medicare #auspol” ]

    Lets see what abbott’s employers think next election!

  22. [“@ABCNews24: Abbott: We know that in their hearts a lot of Labor people think this is good policy #co-payment #Medicare #auspol”]
    And we know that in their guts they know he’s nuts!

  23. Abbott thinks that because Hawke suggested a co-payment, Labor voters are predisposed to accept it. Wonder what focus groups he is relying on for this. Or is it just Abbottlogic?

  25. dave

    Surely there must be better strategists than I am working for Labor. My attention span is short atm because of nursing OH.

  26. Maybe Abbott has to go to France because getting him out of the country is the only way the Libs can see their 2PP rising ;).

  28. The Abbott government is doing something that no government has ever tried to do before in peacetime, and that is to promise the majority of the population that they intend to reduce their real incomes. While they concealed this before the election, their agenda is now clear for everyone to see. They are promising to try to cut the whole-of-life incomes for millions of Australians, young and old.

    They are making these promises when real disposable per capita incomes have already been declining for three years and when real per capita demand for labour has also been falling. The Abbott government is promising to intensify these declines in the coming few years when incomes are highly likely to fall in any case.

    It’s now almost a foregone conclusion that at the next election voters will blame Abbott for cutting their incomes.

    There’s now no real way out for Abbott. He’s going to lose the election whenever it’s held. Even if his budget fails to pass and none of his measures are ever enacted, per capita incomes will remain under pressure. Abbott will get the blame for this. He is already known as the PM who set out to destroy real household incomes. He will not get away with blaming the external sector or the previous Government. He will have to carry the blame.

    I predict that he will lose the next election.

  31. @briefly/1478

    Not if Abbott does much damage to AU first, including the welfare system.

    He is now talking to the Independents.

  33. CTar1@1479

    briefly

    I predict that he will lose the next election.


    Me too. What a FW.

    I want to see the tories decimated as well with their reputation for economic management in tatters around their feet.

  34. Briefly @ 1479

    Agree. I cannot fathom that those that believe in the ‘born to rule’ mentality is allowing this self destruction to take place. Forthcoming state polls particularly in Victoria will be a litmus test as the local LNP are completely on the nose despite recent big ticket promises.

  35. Briefly

    I am no economist but I remember reading once that what really turned people off thatcher was when they increasingly found the value of their homes, their biggest investment in their future, declining

    If you are right and people’s incomes are set for a long term decline, their ability and willingness to borrow for housing, low interest rates or not, will be affected.

    That must flow through to housing. I am not saying we will necessarily have a bust, but the boom won’t go on forever and when the merrygoround stops a lot of people might get off and kick the nearest Tory in the backside.

  37. MTBW

    [That made me laugh – Abbott is a acting on messages in his head.]

    A bit like the carry on re the ‘carbon tax’ – Labor wouldn’t introduce the legislation, then (when they did) Labor MPs would cross the floor to vote against it, then (when they didn’t), Labor Senators would cross the floor to vote against it, then (when they didn’t) Labor would honour the Coalition’s ‘mandate’ to repeal it (remember all the hysteria about Shorten supposedly backing down on the repeal?) and Labor MPs and Senators would…

    The same meme is still apparent in Question Time – Abbott still seems to think that, if he says ‘get out of the way’ often enough, Labor will suddenly change their policy…

  38. lizzie

    Abbott also hasn’t learnt from Hawke’s experience – Hawke lost the PMship very soon after introducting the co payment, and one of PJK’s first actions as PM was to repeal it.

  40. [1481
    zoidlord

    @briefly/1478

    Not if Abbott does much damage to AU first, including the welfare system.]

    zoid, the more successful Abbott is in implementing his agenda, the more he will be resented. There is nothing – just nothing – in the LNP program that will appeal to the overwhelming majority of voters.

    The best he can hope for is that the Senate will thwart his program and there is a miraculous recovery in real per capita income growth.

    He can be fairly sure the Senate will not pass his measures, but he can do nothing much about the economy. Whatever happens, he is going to carry the blame for everything that goes wrong for households from now on.

  41. [1482
    Roger Miller

    Abbott belives the magic pudding will save him. Tax cuts for everybody!]

    This is the plan, but it won’t work. No-one will believe him even if – and this is almost impossible – the fiscal position were to improve enough to promise tax cuts.

    They’ve just completely wrecked their chances.

  42. zoomster

    Abbott is the ultimate cherry-picker – half sentences such as Julia’s “lie”; 3 word mantras chanted without context. They’ve even cherry-picked their policies from Howard/Costello. He’s never in balance.

  43. briefly

    I predict Abbott will be gorn long before that – if he lasts until the end of the year I’ll be surprised.

    As I can’t see anyone on the Liberal frontbench who will do any better, I can’t see the Liberals in power after the next election.

    (Apart from the fact the Libs only scrapped in, the federal government seems to be echoing Victoria – long term Opposition leader wins government by promising to be everything to everyone, unsurprisingly fails to live up to this, is replaced by a pair of safe hands, but the message has already gone out to voters that they’ve been dudded…)

  44. Does anyone have FF senator elect Bob Day on the record as supporting co-payment? Day as an IPA type has the potential to destroy support for FF. While its core backers might be ideological freemarket types, its main base support commes from people who follow the Assemblies of God happy clappy religeon and conservative morality and/or are struggling with social issues.

  46. Very amusing article by Mark LAtham, runiing a few flags up the national infrastructure flagpole. There are plenty of other wacky scheme we can waste billions on, and Latham goes through a few of them.

    [Dr. Hockey’s Magical Mystery Cure
    Instead of thinking he can rid the world of cancer, Hockey’s first priority should be closer to home: healing his Liberal Party colleagues with an antidote for their wacky attacks on mainstream science.

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/arts_saleroom/dr_hockey_magical_mystery_cure_zbgZBCQoWkJECXDb4hCOYK ]

  47. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 47s

    Richard Cooke in @themonthly on how governments feign consensus now. pic.twitter.com/HcRwN7oD1J

  48. With the huge number of nasties that Abbott needs to get thru the Senate the risk is that PUP will be bought off by tradeoffs – eg PUP supports a version of Uni deregulation in return for dropping the co-payment or dropping the interest rate rise on HECS. We will just have to see how PUP responds to this. On their own it is hard to see them not falling over. Whether they can cope with the intense LNP, Murdoch, IPA etc attacks on them will be a big test. Whether Palmer can create a coherent approach yet to be seen but his negotiation skills are probably quite good.

  50. 1498
    Wakefield

    PUP have everything to gain and nothing to lose by opposing the budget completely. They do not need to bargain with Abbott. The Senate majority – Labor, Green, PUP, DLP and X – will make windfall political gains at the expense of the LNP by simply rejecting the budget plans.

    The budget is so deeply unpopular that any party that supports any part of it will be tainted by its odium.

    The LNP have completely miscalculated. They thought there would be widespread if grudging acceptance of the budget by some and rejoicing by others. Instead there is near universal dismay.

    No party that values its future should go near the budget. Palmer is certainly not stupid enough to become Abbott’s enabler.

Comments Page 30 of 38
1 … 29 30 31 … 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *