BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

With nothing much doing in polldom this week, the momentum to Labor established by the post-budget results carries over into this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading.

With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.

There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.

The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,869 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor”

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  1. Helen

    Labor has always been for a fair and compassionate society. Ditto for the Greens. Appliers to their voters. Same goes for PUP.

    I think the same goes for most Liberal voters too. Its those where your wake up comment applies I think. Woken up from Howard Relaxed and Comfortable” to a horror story

  2. I find it very plausible that Abbott and Hockey would take from the poor to fund tax cuts for the rich. The Sheriff of Nottingham had nothing on these guys.

  4. victoria

    I will put it this way. I think Palmer is no Meg Lees. He is no Abbott. His comments on pensions are appealing to his base. Supporting Medicare and Social Security is not against his personal self interest.

    Plus I think he will enjoy the political damage it will cause Abbott.

  5. Btw there was a rally last night in melbourne. Was reported on the evening news. It involved representatives of the medical profession, nurses and fhe like. Basic message to leave medicare alone.

  6. guytaur

    Palmer donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to the LNP over the years. He got his nose out of joint because he did not get his way in Qld. Now he is railing against Newman, and now Barnett. He is behaving like a man scorned

  10. BB

    You just don’t get it, do you? Lifetimes of putting up with racist crap damages people.

    The impact of racism is cumulative. Racism towards someone else in a different place affects you. And, just like inferred pressure, or scoreboard pressure, racism can continue to impact people even when there is no active and present racism and the racists are asleep.

    Some racism is institutional. Some of it is hate-filled. Some of it involves deliberate and targetted verbal and physical abuse. And some of it is just plain ignorant or careless. Some of it involves one-to-one, and some of it involves a commentator possibly offending thousands of his listeners.

    [BW, you can be a pompous, pontificating prick at times.

    I guess that makes two of us.]

    Well, I am not so certain about myself.

    [It was a game of Rugby League, for f**k’s sake.

    Lighten up a little.]

    There is a large, live, audience. That audience, inter alia, includes a lot of people who actually get ‘darky’ in a way that some ‘whiteys’ might not.

    [Not every live football commentator, observing the play-by-play of a game on the run, can afford to sit back at the leisure you seem to have aplenty for judging others, the better to evaluate the relative nuances of referring to this movie or that.]

    Not every live football commentator reckons, if there is a reference to ‘darky’ or, for that matter, ‘coons’ or ‘niggers’ in the literature, that it is not racist to use that sort of stuff as source material for football commentary.

    As for ‘leisure’, these commentators get paid a small fortune to be on their toes. He is responsble and accountable for what he says on air.

    [“Gobsmackingly bad” is gobsmackingly overstating the case.

    I’d have though “gauche” or “a bit tacky” might have served to more accurately describe the sin the commentator is accused of.]

    Laundering racism by way of football commentatory offers a whole new genre of entertainment. Remember, one of the duo thought it was not ‘gauche’ or ‘a bit tacky’. He thought it was funny.

    Laughter has the a special quality when it comes to wounding people, especially powerless people.

    [From what I’ve heard of his on-air efforts usually on a Saturday arvo in the car,, he’s fair, reasoned and intelligent in his job, gives an accurate, fair, considered and informative description of the state of play and is not prone to overstatement or emotional explosions like so many other commentators are.]

    Bully for him. His other excellent qualities are not the issue.

    [He used a clumsy description, for which he should possibly apologize, but his expression was not deserving of the phrase “gobsmackingly bad”.]

    So, some racism is ‘clumsy’. It is still racism.

    [In the context of the film, which he remembered obviously only in approximate detail, the phrase he used – “the old darkie” – reasonably conformed to the overall thrust of the movie.]

    See below.

    [He wasn’t commenting on specific players,…]

    Racism does not always have to be personal or one-to-one.

    […or the racial status quo in Australia.]

    He is part and parcel of the ‘racial status quo’ and self-awareness of this is apparently low to non-existent.

    [He was using a movie analogy to make a point about the chain of command in the game: there is only one boss on the field, and it doesn’t do to have ordinary rand-and-file players dictating strategy.]

    As Conrad, author of the “Nigger of the Narcissus’ would say, wtte, there is the heart of the matter.

    Given that the commentator is working and that I have the leisure, I have done a bit of work for him.

    I have trawled a very narrow selection the huge selection of mostly white-written literature for examples to improve his commentary.

    I have limited myself to the term ‘darky’ because even this dill would realize that had he used analogies involving the word ‘nigger’ or ‘coon’ he might have been crossing some dimly-apprehended boundary or other – even if the racism is somewhow supposed to be OK because it was written by someone else some time before.

    Just two examples:

    ‘This is illustrated by a story told of a coloured man in Alabama, who, one hot day in July, while he was at work in a cotton-field, suddenly stopped, and, looking toward the skies, said: “O Lawd, de cottom am so grassy, de work am so hard, and the sun am so hot dat I b’lieve dis darky am called to preach
    Up From Slavery by Washington, Booker T.’

    When a team is not trying hard enough, they could be just like that darky in ‘Up From Slavery’. This footie team is not called on to play football. It does not want to do the hard work. Just like the darky, it ‘is called to preach.’

    Get it? Cue: hahaha.

    ‘Maybe you won’t believe it, but some days for hours I just lie in the sun like a darky boy, not even thinking.
    Dust by Haldeman, Julius Mr. and Mrs.’

    When a team is not concentrating properly they could ‘just like the darky boy in novel ‘Dust’. They are ‘…not even thinking’.

    Get it? Cue: hahaha

    And so on and so forth.

    Ad nauseam.

  11. [A NEW wave of welfare reform that could force people off dozens of benefits is being prepared as the Abbott government seeks to simplify almost $80 billion in annual outlays.

    Inflaming the dispute over tough budget cuts, Tony Abbott and senior ministers are canvassing further ways to cancel or reduce payments as they express frustration at the number of benefits. The government is aiming to sharpen the political row over welfare by releasing confidential advice within weeks to highlight the complexity of the system and the looming burden on taxpayers.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/new-wave-of-reform-for-welfare/story-fn59niix-1226937982151#

    Typical Liberal party. When the shit hits the fan for them pick a fight with a vulnerable section of the population.

  12. confessions

    So Abbott’s lot are going to set “ordinary taxpayers” (the goodies) against the “greedy welfare bludgers” (the baddies). Inflaming a class war within families. I just hope it explodes in their smug little faces.

  13. confessions

    The Queens Birthday holiday is coming up in all states except WA. Andrew Elder writes that the govt will be dumping lots of bad stuff on the Friday before, he challenges the journosphere not to drop the ball

  15. Labor needs to press the govt on what jobs they have for Australians. And to challenge them not to fall on the mantra of road building or the green army. This is a govt with no vision.
    What jobs of the future do the liberals have?
    So far we have seen the jobs of the 20th century being spouted

  16. Did palmer really say this?

    [Andrew Greene Asked if government’s budget is risky @CliveFPalmer says “of course it’s a risk, I mean actually it’s a rape on the Australian community”]

  17. This idea that the Libs deliberately went hard and risked permanently damaging their political viability because they wanted room to offer tax cuts in the third year of a second term? C’mon give us some credit.

  18. The SMH editorial suggests that Ms Bishop’s “job is almost impossible with the political baggage she brings to it and the way question time is structured.”

    I don’t agree. She doesn’t even stick with rules and conventions that she relied on to make her reputation as potential Speaker.

    [In Britain the speaker must also be seen to be completely impartial in all public matters and keep apart from old party colleagues or any one group or interest, In practice, he or she does not frequent the Commons dining rooms or bars.

    Ms Bishop stressed this week there were historical differences between her role and that of her British counterparts.

    But the holding of party functions in the Speaker’s office surely crosses a line, as do some of the decisions by Ms Bishop in the past eight months]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/an-independent-speaker-20140530-zrskd.html#ixzz33FCwRSJC

  19. It just seems a very desperate and clumsy way to try to put pressure on the opposition(s) to pass Budget measures “why are you stopping us giving tax cuts?!” etc etc

    It shows how inept this lot is.

  21. PvO:
    [We know from history that Howard and Peter Costello were powerful advocates for their reforming causes. They won arguments that the current government is so far losing. Team Abbott needs to lift its game.

    Howard’s first budget did not contain the inconsistencies ­Abbott’s first budget does, making the sales job a harder one today. And Howard’s political recovery took place in a different era, before the rise of social media and 24-hour news, both of which can turn a twitch of failure into a narrative of defeat that is hard to recover from.

    Abbott’s radio wink last week and subsequent questions about his leadership are classic constructs of the superficial age we are in. When a PM is as unpopular as Abbott is now, recovery is harder than it was in Howard’s day. Gillard found the same thing.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/unpopular-abbott-has-time-and-incumbency-on-his-side/story-fn53lw5p-1226937753441#

  23. J:

    Of course it’s all cynical spin. Hockey simply failed to sell his first budget, and now they’re furiously backtracking trying to staunch the bleeding.

  25. confessions

    Definitely. Although they are all up there as highly annoying and pathetic. Not one good sort amongst them. Not one

  26. You know the LNP is doing badly when the DT Herald Sun etc avoid putting coverage of politics on the front page.

    A realisation they have newspapers to sell

    @ABCNews24: #MH370 + Clive Palmer’s duck dinner + a Liberal leader’s defection to Labor: @brucehawker2010 + @chrisberg join us http://t.co/TTkTJ5G5Ba

  29. victoria

    [The “IPA” Senators have already said they will pass the medicare co payment. Not sure what Sen X will do. Madigan seems to be sitting on the fence at present.
    Re the Pups, so far it is a no.]

    With the Greens and the ALP opposing, there’s no way the co payment passes the present Senate.

    With PUP, the Greens and the ALP opposing, there’s no way it passes the next.

  39. Turnbull isn’t a leadership contender under the current Liberal party.

    There is a (very small) possibility that he might form a breakaway group with Clive, but that would involve a massive battle of the egos when it came to leadership, and I don’t think there’s enough ‘moderate’ Liberals (as opposed to nervous ones) in the HoR to make that a viable option.

  41. [ Turnbull isn’t a leadership contender under the current Liberal party. ]

    Well – lots of people will be closely watching this weekends Newspoll.

    Will the tories sink lower – or have voters already started to ‘forgive’ them?

  44. dave

    A change of leadership is more likely to see Morrison up than Turnbull.

    Despite the budget, and the polling, there’s no sign that the Liberals have stopped believing their rhetoric – that the backbench revolt has apparently been silenced by the promise of tax cuts at the next election demonstrates this.

    They’re more likely to decide that the salespeople aren’t doing their job than that the product is flawed.

  46. zoomster

    Yep their cheersquad reckon it has been nothing more than a poor sales job. They believe the electorate will come to appreciate the budget measures very soon

  49. Abbott will probably stabilize his vote or slightly improve in the short-term, as I don’t think Abbott’s policies have sunk in yet. The problem for him will be in 6 months to a year when things get really bad (for individuals and the economy). The MSM have their own Rorke’s Drift in defense of Abbott at the moment and seem to be holding out, but will get over-run by reality eventually.

  50. zoomster@1444

    dave

    A change of leadership is more likely to see Morrison up than Turnbull.

    Despite the budget, and the polling, there’s no sign that the Liberals have stopped believing their rhetoric – that the backbench revolt has apparently been silenced by the promise of tax cuts at the next election demonstrates this.

    They’re more likely to decide that the salespeople aren’t doing their job than that the product is flawed.

    Lets hope so because they will be continuing to go the wrong way if they think the answer to woeful polling is morrison.

    Hockey looks to be burning his chances as much as abbott. Mesma might have trouble with her asbestos past.

    I think more of their voters are tradition ‘liberals’ then IPA/ tea party types – but hopefully the tories will ignore that.

    BTW I came across the original meaning of tory this week – its was meant as an insult of course as was ‘whigg’.

    “Tory” derives from the Middle Irish: outlaw, robber or brigand – how fitting ?

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