Post-budget polling has emphatically confirmed a second major shift in public opinion since the election, the first being a strikingly early dip in the new government’s fortunes in November, leaving the opposition with a narrow lead when the dust had settled. With every pollster but ReachTEL having produced results in the wake of last Tuesday’s budget, the latest landslip looks even bigger than the first, and it sends the Coalition into territory that was all too familiar to Labor during its tumultuous second term in office. The damage was done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan, with a small amount of the edge taken off by more moderate results from Galaxy and Essential Research. Even so, Labor now has a lead on the primary vote for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business in late 2012, even taking into account that the Greens have retained a healthy share of the vote, perhaps finding a new equilibrium with their head just above double figures. Also continuing to make hay out of the exodus from the Coalition is the Palmer United Party, which this week reaches a new high of 7.0%.
No less spectacular is the latest update on leadership ratings, for which near-identical sets of data have emerged this week courtesy of Newspoll and Nielsen. The slump in Tony Abbott’s standing which had become evident over the previous fortnight has continued apace, to the extent that I have had to increase the range of the y-axis on the net satisfaction chart to accommodate it. This puts Abbott at a level Julia Gillard would only have known in a particularly bad week. Even more encouragingly for Labor, Bill Shorten’s ratings are on an upward swing, putting him back into net positive territory after three months below par. What had previously been a steady narrowing trend in Tony Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister has sharply accelerated, to the extent of putting Shorten substantially ahead – an uncommon achievement for an Opposition Leader.
The state projections this week see the distinction in state swings even out, most notably in the case of Queensland where the swing to Labor got out of hand for a few weeks there. A considerable influence here was the latest Nielsen breakdown, which provided the first presentable set of figures I had seen for the Coalition in Queensland for some time. This may suggest that the budget backlash in that state was muted by the fact that Labor had less slack to take up, although there is no doubt also a large element of the statistical noise to which state breakdowns are inevitably prone. The upshot is that the Coalition’s position on the Queensland seat projection actually improves by four seats this week, testament in part to the state’s super-abundance of marginal seats. Offsetting this are bumper gains for Labor in other states – four seats in New South Wales, putting Bennelong, Gilmore and Macquarie on the table in addition to all the seats lost in September; three in marginals-starved Victoria, adding Casey and Dunkley to the more familiar targets of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe; and one each in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.
In other BludgerTrack news, you now have the chance to put Labor’s poll surge in somewhat broader perspective thanks to the retrospective poll tracking displayed on the sidebar, which at present encompasses the previous three terms, with plans to go back to the start of the Howard era in due course. For this you can think the sleuth work of Kevin Bonham, who has provided me with Nielsen data going back to 1996. Taking into account the more readily accessible archives of Newspoll and Morgan, this should eventually give me three pollsters to play with over the totality of the intended period. For the time being, the display encompasses the familiar poll aggregate from the previous term; the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government, which also includes Essential Research and a smattering of Galaxy to supplement the three aforementioned pollsters; and the Howard government’s final term in office.
Diogenes@1493
From all accounts he was very well regarded as CDF and did a good job in that role.
But I think Houston made those comments over a month or so ago ? Maybe he thought the search looked promising at that time ?
I recall him being very measured and careful in anything he said – did you read it otherwise then ?
Did you think he beat it up at all then ?
Did you call him looking like a *tool* then ? or just are you just doing the benefit of hindsight thingy ?
He seems like a decent bloke to me but beyond that I have nothing more than that in any such argument etc.
@lapuntadelfin: The verdict is unequivocal: the budget is inequitable. And voters have figured it out. http://t.co/rXkGvvu3Uq via @guardian
[1500
confessions]
I was just curious. A lot of people have already written off the Libs. I think it’s always useful to reflect on the past – helps to understand the dynamics. While I think they are in a grievous position and it’s likely to get worse for them, it is far too soon to chalk them up as losers next time.
“@davrosz: This budget replaces money from the carbon tax and MRRT, with money from the poor and underprivileged. And they expect us to cop it.”
“@TonyHWindsor: @RobOakeshott1 @Thefinnigans @mscott The answer is yes I am writing a book”
This will hit the headlines I reckon 😀
Dave
He said he was confident he’d find the plane.
At the time, I criticised him and said it reminded me of Captain Ahab chasing the a White Whale.
I’m sure he’s a decent bloke and good organiser.
[“The Abbott Government is making a short-term decision – saving $235.2 million over three years – at the expense of long-term affordability for people on the lowest incomes.”]
Darn@1270
So much to read here today but your post has me fuming about this Govt. The lot of them are in despicable territory now.
$235mill forgone for affordable housing ehile $245mill is given to clergy for schools. How dare they!
This is one old duck who thought her marching days were over. Well, not any longer.
[1501
dave
I should add that one would expect Abbott to look like a fool but I didn’t expect Houston to join him.]
Abbott uses the military for his own purposes. He is also a sucker for a uniform and likes to bask in reflected glory. He wants to use defence personnel to decorate his own persona. They are his trophies.
@guytaur/1504
What Abbott is proposing is no different to what Hewston was proposing back on Fightback 1 and 2.
From the “Stop your complaints …” Article in The Age.
Tony Shepherd is says he thinks “it’s a sad reflection on the modern Australian attitude that they can’t see that all areas have to make a contribution” but he conveniently forgot to say “except big business and the very rich”. Tony Shepherd says ”People will protect their sectional interest,….” but apparently he would rather we protect his and his mates sectional interests. He says “To maintain Gonski you must answer the question: do we cut hospitals more? Or cut disabled pensions more? Lower the rate of growth in the aged pension?” None of the above Mr Shepherd when you ask the question ‘what can be our contribution to a sustainable surplus?’ you can answer it by saying ‘ The people I represent – the very wealthy and big business in Australia – is in the best position to do the “heavy lifting” in this time of need and we are happy to give back to this great country a fair share of our wealth because it is the Australian population that made us rich and we are not greedy, we are making multi-billion dollar profits thanks to the hard work, generous efforts and sacrifices that have been made over many years by all our citizens and we are happy to put back into our society a fair portion of what we have taken out. We would like to give a hand up to those in need and to make sure our sick are looked after and our children are well educated….” And now I expect to be charged by the “house un-Australian activities committee” with crimes against Capitalism for suggesting such an outrageous slander.
Reply by Dreyfus of Grafton
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/stop-your-complaints-says-budget-architect-tony-shepherd-20140522-38rv2.html#ixzz32X7LUwvl
What a beuaty…
briefly:
Understood. I guess for me the most relevant historical reference is that in this country one term federal governments are rare.
The trouble with ping:
http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/story-about-ping-marjorie-flack/1100549167?ean=9780448421650
http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/story-about-ping-marjorie-flack/1100549167?ean=9780448421650
[1511
confessions
briefly:
Understood. I guess for me the most relevant historical reference is that in this country one term federal governments are rare.]
Absolutely…changes are usually very hard-won.
[ briefly
Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 8:04 pm | Permalink
Newspoll recorded some terrible net-sat results for Keating from May 1992 (+29/-61) through to August 1992 (+24/-67) before they improved a little and then reversed in 1993 (+26/-63 in February). Following the election in March they declined to their nadir in August 1993 (+17/-74). ]
I recall being at a party the night of the 1993 election.
Very cocky tory supporters who I only knew to nod hello to were there – very very confident they would win. I expected Keating to lose.
As the night progressed the tory confidence changed to uncertainly to concern to desperation and utter hostility.
There was plenty of cold beer and I walked home later on – just down the home laughing my head off.
It was a good night.
“@Haydenfreedom:
From the stories linked by BB, and elsewhere, Houston’s decision for a root and branch review of the data is a good move, IMHO.
I understand IMMARSAT has (belatedly) agreed to provide access to the all the primary data.
Haydenfreedom
“@BBCPolitics: #Vote2014 seats so far:
Lab 724 (+123)
Con 635 (-110)
Lib Dem 202 (-109)
UKIP 90 (+89)
Green 6 (+3)
“
The world will applaud the courageous ABC News online for lifting its gag on Whitehouse Design scholarship reporting, yet PB’s will be shocked, I say shocked, at the points with which their article commences:
[Tony Abbott defends daughter Frances’s $60,000 scholarship to Whitehouse Institute of Design
Updated 2 hours 54 minutes ago
Prime Minister Tony Abbott has accused The Guardian website of trying to dig up dirt on his daughter.
Frances Abbott won a $60,000 scholarship to Sydney’s Whitehouse Institute of Design in 2011.]
Good on ya BH 1507
Norf v Katz how boringment. Bed beckons.
BH, glad to be the bearer of good news.
I cannot for the life of me understand why superannuation funds don’t jump boots and all into CSP – it would repay itself over the next 30 years but run for at least 50, have stable earnings over that period, and no-one is going to take the demand for electricity away (regardless of what amateur residential PV enthusiasts will say).
[Prime Minister Tony Abbott has accused The Guardian website of trying to dig up dirt on his daughter.]
The disgusting piece of work is now trying to hide hiding behind his daughter’s white skirts.
It is Abbott’s dirt; not his daughter’s.
1514
dave
Must’ve been great…I was at a party with a lot of other desperates…Strangely, I always thought Keating would win in ’93. I thought the same thing in 1996 too!
“@Lateline: Lateline’s political forum examines the worst received federal budget in decades with Lenore Taylor and Tom Switzer on #Lateline 10.20pm”
Dave
Ah election night 1993!
I had been working as an OIC at a polling place in WA that day and delivered all the ballots etc to
Head office and was driving home when PJK came on the radio with the “sweetest victory of all” speech.
Nearly had to stop the car the dry the eyes.
[The disgusting piece of work is now trying to hide hiding behind his daughter’s white skirts.
It is Abbott’s dirt; not his daughter’s.]
He’s a total coward. What father uses his own daughter as a face saving excuse? Certainly not a father of calibre, that’s for sure.
“@AFP: #BREAKING: Ukraine in ‘full-scale civil war’: Putin”
rossmcg –
[ when PJK came on the radio with the “sweetest victory of all” speech. ]
The tories where I was were about to burn the place down – I quietly laugh my head off and did my best to empty the eskies.
The more they wailed the better the beer tasted 🙂
Dear Bludgers,
I would like to wish you all a very good evening on this Speed Dating Friday.
Love,
Everything
[BH
Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 8:24 pm | PERMALINK
“The Abbott Government is making a short-term decision – saving $235.2 million over three years – at the expense of long-term affordability for people on the lowest incomes.”
Darn@1270
So much to read here today but your post has me fuming about this Govt. The lot of them are in despicable territory now.
$235mill forgone for affordable housing ehile $245mill is given to clergy for schools. How dare they!
This is one old duck who thought her marching days were over. Well, not any longer.]
BH
You won’t be alone. I’m sure there are plenty more nasties to be found in the fine print of this budget yet.
The government will be hoping the seething anger they are encountering now will burn itself out. But I think it’s more likely to get worse for them, rather than better.
[briefly
Posted Friday, May 23, 2014 at 8:36 pm | PERMALINK
1514
dave
Must’ve been great…I was at a party with a lot of other desperates…Strangely, I always thought Keating would win in ’93. I thought the same thing in 1996 too!]
What’s your feeling about 2016 briefly?
PETA: More Tony Shepherd, pls.
Dave
Working on elections were the among few days in my life when I haven’t been able to have a late afternoon or early evening beer. I started late that day but did my best to catch up
[The more they wailed the better the beer tasted]
Were they shouting?
😀
[ Were they shouting? ]
Pretty much – cursing everyone and everything.
It warmed the cockles of my heart.
A token of payback.
For 1975.
dave
I should add that my BS detector went off as soon as Abbott started making political mileage out of the pings.
Darn, I think it’s a long way off and anything can happen, but the LNP have managed to unite the country against them and to discredit themselves. Their biggest problem is they have basically decided to close down the Government. It will be very difficult for them to proffer a positive program next time. No-one will believe them. So anything proposed by Labor will look much better in comparison. As well, I think voters will react viscerally to being treated like idiots. So I’m optimistic about Labor’s chances….but 2016 is a long way off…
What do you think?
Dio
Yes – Agree.
He went into *stunt* mode quickly.
Lower then sharks dung.
If the ABC online report on Ms Abbott’s Whitehouse Design scholarship doesn’t win a Walkley, then I’ll eat my hat.
This is a paragon of “fair and balanced” journalism. Along with the extensive direct quotes from the PM and from the Institute’s CEO, the report provides every salient detail from the Guardian’s investigation which a fair-minded reader would need to objectively conclude that the PM’s family has been victimised by an obsessive, unfair attack from the Guardian.
Here’s all those salient details:
[This week, The Guardian revealed Mr Abbott is a close friend of the institute’s chairman, Les Taylor, and questioned whether the scholarship should have been declared on his interests register.]
@Dio/1536
Mine started when Turnbull was trashed as Coalition Party Leader.
dave
I seem to remember he tried to use it as a diversion in parliament having had something go to shit that morning. Forget what it was. Perhaps Artie getting the boot.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/05/budget-blowout-in-coalition-polling.html
Updated my now incredibly long post-budget polling roundup with some stuff on how Abbott’s recent netsat slump (23 points in six weeks) stacks up historically.
It’s not about how low he goes, it’s about how well he recovers. We don’t know that bit yet.
The 93 election night is not one that stands out in my mind, must not have had an election party that year but I do recall
the “sweetest victory of all” speech.
I think the party for the Party wokers on the booths was at working man’s club in western Sydney and that the libs had book a room at an expencive Sydney hotel, the Menzies I think.
The contrast between those two venues was stark, the libs camp was almost deserted way before the leaders speeches, the few remaining ones were in deep shock.
Funny really.
thanks kb
Dio – yep, think you are right and he had several bites at it.
Was he in China at one stage?
Wasn’t subtle at all.
dave – the ultimate payback for 1975 was watching Malcolm blub in 1983. I felt not a shred of pity. It was Schadenfreude all the way.
[ The contrast between those two venues was stark, the libs camp was almost deserted way before the leaders speeches, the few remaining ones were in deep shock. ]
Gough had a keg in his backyard in 1972 when Labor won.
I had worked that day for the AEC at a booth and went from there to – a keg in friends backyard 🙂
K17 – reprise 1983 when abbott gets booted ? 🙂
Diog
yep, he interupted QT – thus taking up time which would have otherwise been spent on talking about Sinodinos – to make the announcement.
Howard was actually quite good at this kind of thing. In the middle of a crisis, he would pop up with some (often slightly absurd) suggestion, the media would chase off after it, and then both it and the issue he was distracting from would both quietly go away.
Just as Rudd tried to do a Beattie and couldn’t pull it off, Abbott is no John Howard.
Good TV ad highlighting Abbotts lies.